Spontaneous Stochasticity Amplifies Even Thermal Noise to the Largest Scales of Turbulence in a Few Eddy Turnover Times.

How predictable are turbulent flows? Here, we use theoretical estimates and shell model simulations to argue that Eulerian spontaneous stochasticity, a manifestation of the nonuniqueness of the solutions to the Euler equation that is conjectured to occur in Navier-Stokes turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, leads to universal statistics at finite times, not just at infinite time as for standard chaos. These universal statistics are predictable, even though individual flow realizations are not. Any small-scale noise vanishing slowly enough with increasing Reynolds number can trigger spontaneous stochasticity, and here we show that thermal noise alone, in the absence of any larger disturbances, would suffice. If confirmed for Navier-Stokes turbulence, our findings would imply that intrinsic stochasticity of turbulent fluid motions at all scales can be triggered even by unavoidable molecular noise, with implications for modeling in engineering, climate, astrophysics, and cosmology.

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity.

Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, superspreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, whereas long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is expected to lead to a reduction in both the infection peak and the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Here, we develop a general approach to encompass both timescales, including time variations in individual social activity, and demonstrate how to incorporate them phenomenologically into a wide class of epidemiological models through reparameterization. We derive a nonlinear dependence of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] on the susceptible population fraction S. We show that a state of transient collective immunity (TCI) emerges well below the HIT during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic. However, this is a fragile state that wanes over time due to changing levels of social activity, and so the infection peak is not an indication of long-lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to behavioral changes in the population, driven by, for example, seasonal factors. Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic and from real-life face-to-face contact networks. These results suggest that the hardest hit areas, such as New York City, have achieved TCI following the first wave of the epidemic, but likely remain below the long-term HIT. Thus, in contrast to some previous claims, these regions can still experience subsequent waves.

Ice needles weave patterns of stones in freezing landscapes.

Patterned ground, defined by the segregation of stones in soil according to size, is one of the most strikingly self-organized characteristics of polar and high-alpine landscapes. The presence of such patterns on Mars has been proposed as evidence for the past presence of surface liquid water. Despite their ubiquity, the dearth of quantitative field data on the patterns and their slow dynamics have hindered fundamental understanding of the pattern formation mechanisms. Here, we use laboratory experiments to show that stone transport is strongly dependent on local stone concentration and the height of ice needles, leading effectively to pattern formation driven by needle ice activity. Through numerical simulations, theory, and experiments, we show that the nonlinear amplification of long wavelength instabilities leads to self-similar dynamics that resemble phase separation patterns in binary alloys, characterized by scaling laws and spatial structure formation. Our results illustrate insights to be gained into patterns in landscapes by viewing the pattern formation through the lens of phase separation. Moreover, they may help interpret spatial structures that arise on diverse planetary landscapes, including ground patterns recently examined using the rover Curiosity on Mars.

Scale-invariant topology and bursty branching of evolutionary trees emerge from niche construction.

Phylogenetic trees describe both the evolutionary process and community diversity. Recent work has established that they exhibit scale-invariant topology, which quantifies the fact that their branching lies in between the two extreme cases of balanced binary trees and maximally unbalanced ones. In addition, the backbones of phylogenetic trees exhibit bursts of diversification on all timescales. Here, we present a simple, coarse-grained statistical model of niche construction coupled to speciation. Finite-size scaling analysis of the dynamics shows that the resultant phylogenetic tree topology is scale-invariant due to a singularity arising from large niche construction fluctuations that follow extinction events. The same model recapitulates the bursty pattern of diversification in time. These results show how dynamical scaling laws of phylogenetic trees on long timescales can reflect the indelible imprint of the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes.

Individual variations lead to universal and cross-species patterns of social behavior.

The duration of interaction events in a society is a fundamental measure of its collective nature and potentially reflects variability in individual behavior. Here we performed a high-throughput measurement of trophallaxis and face-to-face event durations experienced by a colony of honeybees over their entire lifetimes. The interaction time distribution is heavy-tailed, as previously reported for human face-to-face interactions. We developed a theory of pair interactions that takes into account individual variability and predicts the scaling behavior for both bee and extant human datasets. The individual variability of worker honeybees was nonzero but less than that of humans, possibly reflecting their greater genetic relatedness. Our work shows how individual differences can lead to universal patterns of behavior that transcend species and specific mechanisms for social interactions.

Stochastic Model for Quasi-One-Dimensional Transitional Turbulence with Streamwise Shear Interactions.

The transition to turbulence in wall-bounded shear flows is typically subcritical, with a poorly understood interplay between spatial fluctuations, pattern formation, and stochasticity near the critical Reynolds number. Here, we present a spatially extended stochastic minimal model for the energy budget in transitional pipe flow, which successfully recapitulates the way localized patches of turbulence (puffs) decay, split, and grow, respectively, as the Reynolds number increases through the laminar-turbulent transition. Our approach takes into account the flow geometry, as we demonstrate by extending the model to quasi-one-dimensional Taylor-Couette flow, reproducing the observed directed percolation pattern of turbulent patches in space and time.

Context-dependent influence of threat on honey bee social network dynamics and brain gene expression.

Adverse social experience affects social structure by modifying the behavior of individuals, but the relationship between an individual's behavioral state and its response to adversity is poorly understood. We leveraged naturally occurring division of labor in honey bees and studied the biological embedding of environmental threat using laboratory assays and automated behavioral tracking of whole colonies. Guard bees showed low intrinsic levels of sociability compared with foragers and nurse bees, but large increases in sociability following exposure to a threat. Threat experience also modified the expression of caregiving-related genes in a brain region called the mushroom bodies. These results demonstrate that the biological embedding of environmental experience depends on an individual's societal role and, in turn, affects its future sociability.

Roadmap on biology in time varying environments.

Biological organisms experience constantly changing environments, from sudden changes in physiology brought about by feeding, to the regular rising and setting of the Sun, to ecological changes over evolutionary timescales. Living organisms have evolved to thrive in this changing world but the general principles by which organisms shape and are shaped by time varying environments remain elusive. Our understanding is particularly poor in the intermediate regime with no separation of timescales, where the environment changes on the same timescale as the physiological or evolutionary response. Experiments to systematically characterize the response to dynamic environments are challenging since such environments are inherently high dimensional. This roadmap deals with the unique role played by time varying environments in biological phenomena across scales, from physiology to evolution, seeking to emphasize the commonalities and the challenges faced in this emerging area of research.

DNA Supercoiling Drives a Transition between Collective Modes of Gene Synthesis.

Transcription of genes can be affected by both biochemical and mechanical factors. Recent experiments suggested that the mechanical stress associated with transcription-induced DNA supercoiling is responsible for the transition from cooperative to antagonistic group dynamics of RNA polymerases (RNAPs) upon promoter repression. To underpin the mechanism behind this drastic transition, we developed a continuum deterministic model for transcription under torsion. In our model, the speed of an RNAP is affected by the local DNA supercoiling, as well as two global factors: (i) the number of RNAPs on the gene affecting the torsional stress experienced by individual RNAPs and (ii) transcription factors blocking the diffusion of DNA supercoils. Our minimal model can successfully reproduce the experimental findings and helps elucidate the interplay of mechanical and biological factors in the collective dynamics of molecular machines involved in gene expression.

Automated monitoring of behavior reveals bursty interaction patterns and rapid spreading dynamics in honeybee social networks.

Social networks mediate the spread of information and disease. The dynamics of spreading depends, among other factors, on the distribution of times between successive contacts in the network. Heavy-tailed (bursty) time distributions are characteristic of human communication networks, including face-to-face contacts and electronic communication via mobile phone calls, email, and internet communities. Burstiness has been cited as a possible cause for slow spreading in these networks relative to a randomized reference network. However, it is not known whether burstiness is an epiphenomenon of human-specific patterns of communication. Moreover, theory predicts that fast, bursty communication networks should also exist. Here, we present a high-throughput technology for automated monitoring of social interactions of individual honeybees and the analysis of a rich and detailed dataset consisting of more than 1.2 million interactions in five honeybee colonies. We find that bees, like humans, also interact in bursts but that spreading is significantly faster than in a randomized reference network and remains so even after an experimental demographic perturbation. Thus, while burstiness may be an intrinsic property of social interactions, it does not always inhibit spreading in real-world communication networks. We anticipate that these results will inform future models of large-scale social organization and information and disease transmission, and may impact health management of threatened honeybee populations.

Stochastic Turing patterns in a synthetic bacterial population.

The origin of biological morphology and form is one of the deepest problems in science, underlying our understanding of development and the functioning of living systems. In 1952, Alan Turing showed that chemical morphogenesis could arise from a linear instability of a spatially uniform state, giving rise to periodic pattern formation in reaction-diffusion systems but only those with a rapidly diffusing inhibitor and a slowly diffusing activator. These conditions are disappointingly hard to achieve in nature, and the role of Turing instabilities in biological pattern formation has been called into question. Recently, the theory was extended to include noisy activator-inhibitor birth and death processes. Surprisingly, this stochastic Turing theory predicts the existence of patterns over a wide range of parameters, in particular with no severe requirement on the ratio of activator-inhibitor diffusion coefficients. To explore whether this mechanism is viable in practice, we have genetically engineered a synthetic bacterial population in which the signaling molecules form a stochastic activator-inhibitor system. The synthetic pattern-forming gene circuit destabilizes an initially homogenous lawn of genetically engineered bacteria, producing disordered patterns with tunable features on a spatial scale much larger than that of a single cell. Spatial correlations of the experimental patterns agree quantitatively with the signature predicted by theory. These results show that Turing-type pattern-forming mechanisms, if driven by stochasticity, can potentially underlie a broad range of biological patterns. These findings provide the groundwork for a unified picture of biological morphogenesis, arising from a combination of stochastic gene expression and dynamical instabilities.

Testing the retroelement invasion hypothesis for the emergence of the ancestral eukaryotic cell.

Phylogenetic evidence suggests that the invasion and proliferation of retroelements, selfish mobile genetic elements that copy and paste themselves within a host genome, was one of the early evolutionary events in the emergence of eukaryotes. Here we test the effects of this event by determining the pressures retroelements exert on simple genomes. We transferred two retroelements, human LINE-1 and the bacterial group II intron Ll.LtrB, into bacteria, and find that both are functional and detrimental to growth. We find, surprisingly, that retroelement lethality and proliferation are enhanced by the ability to perform eukaryotic-like nonhomologous end-joining (NHEJ) DNA repair. We show that the only stable evolutionary consequence in simple cells is maintenance of retroelements in low numbers, suggesting how retrotransposition rates and costs in early eukaryotes could have been constrained to allow proliferation. Our results suggest that the interplay between NHEJ and retroelements may have played a fundamental and previously unappreciated role in facilitating the proliferation of retroelements, elements of which became the ancestors of the spliceosome components in eukaryotes.

Real-time transposable element activity in individual live cells.

The excision and reintegration of transposable elements (TEs) restructure their host genomes, generating cellular diversity involved in evolution, development, and the etiology of human diseases. Our current knowledge of TE behavior primarily results from bulk techniques that generate time and cell ensemble averages, but cannot capture cell-to-cell variation or local environmental and temporal variability. We have developed an experimental system based on the bacterial TE IS608 that uses fluorescent reporters to directly observe single TE excision events in individual cells in real time. We find that TE activity depends upon the TE's orientation in the genome and the amount of transposase protein in the cell. We also find that TE activity is highly variable throughout the lifetime of the cell. Upon entering stationary phase, TE activity increases in cells hereditarily predisposed to TE activity. These direct observations demonstrate that real-time live-cell imaging of evolution at the molecular and individual event level is a powerful tool for the exploration of genome plasticity in stressed cells.

Biophysical constraints determine the selection of phenotypic fluctuations during directed evolution.

Phenotypes of individuals in a population of organisms are not fixed. Phenotypic fluctuations, which describe temporal variation of the phenotype of an individual or individual-to-individual variation across a population, are present in populations from microbes to higher animals. Phenotypic fluctuations can provide a basis for adaptation and be the target of selection. Here we present a theoretical and experimental investigation of the fate of phenotypic fluctuations in directed evolution experiments where phenotypes are subject to constraints. We show that selecting bacterial populations for fast migration through a porous environment drives a reduction in cell-to-cell variation across the population. Using sequencing and genetic engineering we study the genetic basis for this reduction in phenotypic fluctuations. We study the generality of this reduction by developing a simple, abstracted, numerical simulation model of the evolution of phenotypic fluctuations subject to constraints. Using this model we find that strong and weak selection generally lead respectively to increasing or decreasing cell-to-cell variation as a result of a bound on the selected phenotype under a wide range of parameters. However, other behaviors are also possible, and we describe the outcome of selection simulations for different model parameters and suggest future experiments. We analyze the mechanism of the observed reduction of phenotypic fluctuations in our experimental system, discuss the relevance of our abstract model to the experiment and explore its broader implications for evolution.

Coevolution Maintains Diversity in the Stochastic "Kill the Winner" Model.

The "kill the winner" hypothesis is an attempt to address the problem of diversity in biology. It argues that host-specific predators control the population of each prey, preventing a winner from emerging and thus maintaining the coexistence of all species in the system. We develop a stochastic model for the kill the winner paradigm and show that the stable coexistence state of the deterministic kill the winner model is destroyed by demographic stochasticity, through a cascade of extinction events. We formulate an individual-level stochastic model in which predator-prey coevolution promotes the high diversity of the ecosystem by generating a persistent population flux of species.

Giant Amplification of Noise in Fluctuation-Induced Pattern Formation.

The amplitude of fluctuation-induced patterns might be expected to be proportional to the strength of the driving noise, suggesting that such patterns would be difficult to observe in nature. Here, we show that a large class of spatially extended dynamical systems driven by intrinsic noise can exhibit giant amplification, yielding patterns whose amplitude is comparable to that of deterministic Turing instabilities. The giant amplification results from the interplay between noise and nonorthogonal eigenvectors of the linear stability matrix, yielding transients that grow with time, and which, when driven by the ever-present intrinsic noise, lead to persistent large amplitude patterns. This mechanism shows that fluctuation-induced Turing patterns are observable, and are not strongly limited by the amplitude of demographic stochasticity nor by the value of the diffusion coefficients.

Universal biology and the statistical mechanics of early life.

All known life on the Earth exhibits at least two non-trivial common features: the canonical genetic code and biological homochirality, both of which emerged prior to the Last Universal Common Ancestor state. This article describes recent efforts to provide a narrative of this epoch using tools from statistical mechanics. During the emergence of self-replicating life far from equilibrium in a period of chemical evolution, minimal models of autocatalysis show that homochirality would have necessarily co-evolved along with the efficiency of early-life self-replicators. Dynamical system models of the evolution of the genetic code must explain its universality and its highly refined error-minimization properties. These have both been accounted for in a scenario where life arose from a collective, networked phase where there was no notion of species and perhaps even individuality itself. We show how this phase ultimately terminated during an event sometimes known as the Darwinian transition, leading to the present epoch of tree-like vertical descent of organismal lineages. These examples illustrate concrete examples of universal biology: the quest for a fundamental understanding of the basic properties of living systems, independent of precise instantiation in chemistry or other media.This article is part of the themed issue 'Reconceptualizing the origins of life'.

Stochastic Predator-Prey Dynamics of Transposons in the Human Genome.

Transposable elements, or transposons, are DNA sequences that can jump from site to site in the genome during the life cycle of a cell, usually encoding the very enzymes which perform their excision. However, some transposons are parasitic, relying on the enzymes produced by the regular transposons. In this case, we show that a stochastic model, which takes into account the small copy numbers of the active transposons in a cell, predicts noise-induced predator-prey oscillations with a characteristic time scale that is much longer than the cell replication time, indicating that the state of the predator-prey oscillator is stored in the genome and transmitted to successive generations. Our work demonstrates the important role of the number fluctuations in the expression of mobile genetic elements, and shows explicitly how ecological concepts can be applied to the dynamics and fluctuations of living genomes.

Noise-Induced Mechanism for Biological Homochirality of Early Life Self-Replicators.

The observed single-handedness of biological amino acids and sugars has long been attributed to autocatalysis. However, the stability of homochiral states in deterministic autocatalytic systems relies on cross inhibition of the two chiral states, an unlikely scenario for early life self-replicators. Here, we present a theory for a stochastic individual-level model of autocatalysis due to early life self-replicators. Without chiral inhibition, the racemic state is the global attractor of the deterministic dynamics, but intrinsic multiplicative noise stabilizes the homochiral states, in both well-mixed and spatially extended systems. We conclude that autocatalysis is a viable mechanism for homochirality, without imposing additional nonlinearities such as chiral inhibition.

Phylogeny and beyond: Scientific, historical, and conceptual significance of the first tree of life.

In 1977, Carl Woese and George Fox published a brief paper in PNAS that established, for the first time, that the overall phylogenetic structure of the living world is tripartite. We describe the way in which this monumental discovery was made, its context within the historical development of evolutionary thought, and how it has impacted our understanding of the emergence of life and the characterization of the evolutionary process in its most general form.