In tropical lowland rain forests monocots have tougher leaves than dicots, and include a new kind of tough leaf.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There has been little previous work on the toughness of the laminae of monocots in tropical lowland rain forest (TLRF) despite the potential importance of greater toughness in inhibiting herbivory by invertebrates. Of 15 monocot families with >100 species in TLRF, eight have notably high densities of fibres in the lamina so that high values for toughness are expected. METHODS: In north-eastern Australia punch strength was determined with a penetrometer for both immature leaves (approx. 30 % final area on average) and fully expanded, fully toughened leaves. In Singapore and Panama, fracture toughness was determined with an automated scissors apparatus using fully toughened leaves only. KEY RESULTS: In Australia punch strength was, on average, 7x greater in shade-tolerant monocots than in neighbouring dicots at the immature stage, and 3x greater at the mature stage. In Singapore, shade-tolerant monocots had, on average, 1.3x higher values for fracture toughness than neighbouring dicots. In Panama, both shade-tolerant and gap-demanding monocots were tested; they did not differ in fracture toughness. The monocots had markedly higher values than the dicots whether shade-tolerant or gap-demanding species were considered. CONCLUSIONS: It is predicted that monocots will be found to experience lower rates of herbivory by invertebrates than dicots. The tough monocot leaves include both stiff leaves containing relatively little water at saturation (e.g. palms), and leaves which lack stiffness, are rich in water at saturation and roll readily during dry weather or even in bright sun around midday (e.g. gingers, heliconias and marants). Monocot leaves also show that it is possible for leaves to be notably tough throughout the expansion phase of development, something never recorded for dicots. The need to broaden the botanist's mental picture of a 'tough leaf' is emphasized.

Monocot leaves are eaten less than dicot leaves in tropical lowland rain forests: correlations with toughness and leaf presentation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In tropical lowland rain forest (TLRF) the leaves of most monocots differ from those of most dicots in two ways that may reduce attack by herbivores. Firstly, they are tougher. Secondly, the immature leaves are tightly folded or rolled until 50-100 % of their final length. It was hypothesized that (a) losses of leaf area to herbivorous invertebrates are generally greatest during leaf expansion and smaller for monocots than for dicots, and (b) where losses after expansion are appreciable any difference between monocots and dicots then is smaller than that found during expansion. METHODS: At six sites on four continents, estimates were made of lamina area loss from the four most recently mature leaves of focal monocots and of the nearest dicot shoot. Measurements of leaf mass per unit area, and the concentrations of water and nitrogen were made for many of the species. In Panama, the losses from monocots (palms) and dicots were also measured after placing fully expanded palm leaflets and whole dicot leaves on trails of leaf-cutter ants. KEY RESULTS: At five of six sites monocots experienced significantly smaller leaf area loss than dicots. The results were not explicable in terms of leaf mass per unit area, or concentrations of water or nitrogen. At only one site was the increase in loss from first to fourth mature leaf significant (also large and the same in monocots and dicots), but the losses sustained during expansion were much smaller in the monocots. In the leaf-cutter ant experiment, losses were much smaller for palms than for dicots. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between toughness and herbivory is complex; despite the negative findings of some recent authors for dicots we hypothesize that either greater toughness or late folding can protect monocot leaves against herbivorous insects in tropical lowland rain forest, and that the relative importance varies widely with species. The difficulties of establishing unequivocally the roles of leaf toughness and leaf folding or rolling in a given case are discussed.

Seed dormancy and delayed flowering in monocarpic plants: selective interactions in a stochastic environment.

We explore the effects of temporal variation in multiple demographic rates on the joint evolution of delayed reproduction and seed dormancy using integral projection models (IPMs). To do this, we extend the standard IPM to include a discrete state variable representing the number of seeds in the seed bank, density-dependent recruitment, and temporal variation in demography. Parameter estimates for Carlina vulgaris and Carduus nutans are obtained from long-term studies. Carlina is relatively long lived and has a short-lived seed bank, whereas most Carduus plants flower in their first year and the seed bank is long lived. Using the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) approach, we predict the observed flowering and germination strategies. There is excellent agreement between the predictions and the field observations. The effects of temporal variation on the joint ESS are partitioned into components arising from nonlinear averaging (systematic changes in the mean resulting from the interaction between variability and nonlinearity) and nonequilibrium dynamics (fluctuations in fitness caused by temporal variation). This shows that temporal variation can have substantial effects on the observed flowering and germination strategies and that covariance between demographic processes is important. We extend the models to include spatial population structure and assess the robustness of the results from the nonspatial models.

Evolution in the real world: stochastic variation and the determinants of fitness in Carlina vulgaris.

Empirical studies of life histories often ignore stochastic variation, despite theoretical demonstrations of its potential impact on life-history evolution. Here we use a novel approach to explore the effects of stochastic variation on life-history evolution and estimate the selection pressures operating on the monocarpic perennial Carlina vulgaris, in which flowering may be delayed by up to eight years. The approach is novel in that we use modern theoretical techniques to estimate selection pressures and the fitness landscape from a fully parameterised individual-based model. These approaches take into account temporal variation in demographic rates and density dependence. Analysis of 16 years' data revealed significant temporal variation in growth, mortality, and recruitment in our study population. Flowering was strongly size dependent and, unusually for such a species, also age dependent. Individual-based models of the flowering strategy, parameterized using field data, consistently underestimated the size at flowering, when temporal variation in demographic rates was ignored. In contrast, models that incorporated temporal variation in growth, mortality, and recruitment predicted sizes at flowering not significantly different from those observed in the field. Temporal variation in mortality, which had the largest effect on the flowering strategy, selected for increased size at flowering. An analytical approximation is presented to explain this result, extending the "1-year look-ahead criterion" presented in Rees et al. (2000). A fitness landscape generated by following the fate of rare mutant invaders with a broad range of alternative flowering strategies demonstrated that the observed parameters were adaptive. However, the fitness landscape reveals that approximately equal fitness is achieved by a broad range of strategies, providing a mechanism for the maintenance of genetic variation. To understand how the different parameters that defined our models determine the fitness of rare mutants, we numerically estimated the elasticities and sensitivities of mutant fitness. This demonstrated strong selection on a number of the parameters. Elasticities and sensitivities estimated in constant and random environments were significantly positively correlated, and both were negatively related to the standard error of the parameter. This last result is surprising and, we argue, reflects the genetic and phenotypic responses to selection.

Evolution of size-dependent flowering in a variable environment: partitioning the effects of fluctuating selection.

In a stochastic environment, two distinct processes, namely nonlinear averaging and non-equilibrium dynamics, influence fitness. We develop methods for decomposing the effects of temporal variation in demography into contributions from nonlinear averaging and non-equilibrium dynamics. We illustrate the approach using Carlina vulgaris, a monocarpic species in which recruitment, growth and survival all vary from year to year. In Carlina the absolute effect of temporal variation on the evolutionarily stable flowering strategy is substantial (ca. 50% of the evolutionarily stable flowering size) but the net effect is much smaller (ca. 10%) because the effects of temporal variation do not influence the evolutionarily stable strategy in the same direction.

Evolution of size-dependent flowering in a variable environment: construction and analysis of a stochastic integral projection model.

Understanding why individuals delay reproduction is a classic problem in evolutionary biology. In plants, the study of reproductive delays is complicated because growth and survival can be size and age dependent, individuals of the same size can grow by different amounts and there is temporal variation in the environment. We extend the recently developed integral projection approach to include size- and age-dependent demography and temporal variation. The technique is then applied to a long-term individually structured dataset for Carlina vulgaris, a monocarpic thistle. The parameterized model has excellent descriptive properties in terms of both the population size and the distributions of sizes within each age class. In Carlina, the probability of flowering depends on both plant size and age. We use the parameterized model to predict this relationship, using the evolutionarily stable strategy approach. Considering each year separately, we show that both the direction and the magnitude of selection on the flowering strategy vary from year to year. Provided the flowering strategy is constrained, so it cannot be a step function, the model accurately predicts the average size at flowering. Elasticity analysis is used to partition the size- and age-specific contributions to the stochastic growth rate, lambda(s). We use lambda(s) to construct fitness landscapes and show how different forms of stochasticity influence its topography. We prove the existence of a unique stochastic growth rate, lambda(s), which is independent of the initial population vector, and show that Tuljapurkar's perturbation analysis for log(lambda(s)) can be used to calculate elasticities.

Evolution of complex flowering strategies: an age- and size-structured integral projection model.

We explore the evolution of delayed age- and size-dependent flowering in the monocarpic perennial Carlina vulgaris, by extending the recently developed integral projection approach to include demographic rates that depend on size and age. The parameterized model has excellent descriptive properties both in terms of the population size and in terms of the distributions of sizes within each age class. In Carlina the probability of flowering depends on both plant size and age. We use the parameterized model to predict this relationship, using the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) approach. Despite accurately predicting the mean size of flowering individuals, the model predicts a step-function relationship between the probability of flowering and plant size, which has no age component. When the variance of the flowering-threshold distribution is constrained to the observed value, the ESS flowering function contains an age component, but underpredicts the mean flowering size. An analytical approximation is used to explore the effect of variation in the flowering strategy on the ESS predictions. Elasticity analysis is used to partition the agespecific contributions to the finite rate of increase (lambda) of the survival-growth and fecundity components of the model. We calculate the adaptive landscape that defines the ESS and generate a fitness landscape for invading phenotypes in the presence of the observed flowering strategy. The implications of these results for the patterns of genetic diversity in the flowering strategy and for testing evolutionary models are discussed. Results proving the existence of a dominant eigenvalue and its associated eigenvectors in general size- and age-dependent integral projection models are presented.

The combined impacts of deep shade and drought on the growth and biomass allocation of shade-tolerant woody seedlings.

To test whether the impact of drought on the growth and biomass allocation of first-season shade-tolerant woody seedlings in low irradiance differs from that in high irradiance, seedlings of Viburnum lantana, V. opulus, V. tinus and Hedera helix were grown in pots at two watering frequencies × three irradiances. Hypotheses in the recent literature variously predict that drought will have a stronger, weaker or equal impact on seedling relative growth rate (RGR) in deep shade relative to that in moderate shade. Experimental irradiance levels were selected in the typical range for temperate deciduous forest seedlings in either understorey or clearings: 3-4% daylight (low red: far-red shade), 3-4% daylight (neutral shade), and 30-40% daylight (neutral shade). Watering was 'frequent' (every 3-4 days) or 'infrequent' (five times during the 8-week experiment), producing soil matric potentials as low as -0.03 MPa, and -2 MPa. To prevent the interaction of irradiance and watering treatments, each seedling was grown in a 'shade tower' that was surrounded by an uncovered sward of grass (Festuca rubra), which depleted pot water at the same rate regardless of the species of seedling, or its irradiance treatment. Shading affected all species: seedlings in 3.5% daylight grew at 56-73% of their dry-mass RGR in 35% daylight. Low red: far-red shade reduced the RGR of Hedera to 68% of its value in neutral shade. Infrequent watering significantly reduced the RGR of only V. lantana and V. opulus, by approximately the same proportion across irradiance treatments. Infrequent watering did not significantly alter any species' biomass allocation across irradiance treatments. Such orthogonal impacts of deep shade and drought on seedling growth and biomass allocation indicate a large potential for niche differentiation at combinations of irradiance and water supply for species of forest seedlings, and suggest a multiplicative-effects approach for modelling seedling performance in microsites with different combinations of irradiance and water supply.

Disturbance regimes, gap-demanding trees and seed mass related to tree height in warm temperate rain forests worldwide.

For tropical lowland rain forests, Denslow (1987) hypothesized that in areas with large-scale disturbances tree species with a high demand for light make up a larger proportion of the flora; results of tests have been inconsistent. There has been no test for warm temperate rain forests (WTRFs), but they offer a promising testing ground because they differ widely in the extent of disturbance. WTRF is dominated by microphylls sensu Raunkiaer and has a simpler structure and range of physiognomy than tropical or subtropical rain forests. It occurs in six parts of the world: eastern Asia, New Zealand, Chile, South Africa, SE Australia and the Azores. On the Azores it has been mostly destroyed, so we studied instead the subtropical montane rain forest (STMRF) on the Canary Islands which also represents a relict of the kind of WTRF that once stretched across southern Eurasia. We sought to find whether in these six regions the proportion of tree species needing canopy gaps for establishment reflects the frequency and/or extent of canopy disturbance by wind, landslide, volcanic eruptions (lava flow and ash fall), flood or fire. We used standard floras and ecological accounts to draw up lists of core tree species commonly reaching 5 m height. We excluded species which are very rare, very localized in distribution, or confined to special habitats, e.g. coastal forests or rocky sites. We used published accounts and our own experience to classify species into three groups: (1) needing canopy gaps for establishment; (2) needing either light shade throughout or a canopy gap relatively soon (a few months or years) after establishment; and (3) variously more shade-tolerant. Group 1 species were divided according the kind of canopy opening needed: tree-fall gap, landslide, lava flow, flood or fire. Only some of the significant differences in proportion of Group 1 species were consistent with differences in the extent of disturbance; even in some of those cases other factors seem likely to have had a major determining influence during evolution. We also sought to determine whether the species that are at least 'short-term persistent' in the soil seed bank (lasting 2-4 years) are all species needing canopy gaps for establishment. The answer was negative; large numbers of seeds of some shade-tolerants accumulate in the soil, and these species are able to benefit from soil disturbance in deep shade. We found a significant and strong positive relationship in Japan between mean seed mass and mature tree height, a weak positive relationship in New Zealand and no relationship in any of the other four regions. When comparing the seed mass values of Group 1 and Group 3 species we obtained different answers depending on whether or not we confined ourselves to taxonomically controlled contrasts. In only two of the four regions with an appreciable number of species in Group 1 is the mean seed mass of such species significantly lower than that of Group 3 species when taxonomic relatedness is ignored.