Dissecting the genetic architecture of quantitative traits using genome-wide identity-by-descent sharing.

Additive and dominance genetic variances underlying the expression of quantitative traits are important quantities for predicting short-term responses to selection, but they are notoriously challenging to estimate in most non-model wild populations. Specifically, large-sized or panmictic populations may be characterized by low variance in genetic relatedness among individuals which, in turn, can prevent accurate estimation of quantitative genetic parameters. We used estimates of genome-wide identity-by-descent (IBD) sharing from autosomal SNP loci to estimate quantitative genetic parameters for ecologically important traits in nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) from a large, outbred population. Using empirical and simulated datasets, with varying sample sizes and pedigree complexity, we assessed the performance of different crossing schemes in estimating additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits. We found that low variance in relatedness characteristic of wild outbred populations with high migration rate can impair the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters and bias heritability estimates downwards. On the other hand, the use of a half-sib/full-sib design allowed precise estimation of genetic variance components and revealed significant additive variance and heritability for all measured traits, with negligible dominance contributions. Genome-partitioning and QTL mapping analyses revealed that most traits had a polygenic basis and were controlled by genes at multiple chromosomes. Furthermore, different QTL contributed to variation in the same traits in different populations suggesting heterogeneous underpinnings of parallel evolution at the phenotypic level. Our results provide important guidelines for future studies aimed at estimating adaptive potential in the wild, particularly for those conducted in outbred large-sized populations.

Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities.

Permafrost thawing and the potential 'lab leak' of ancient microorganisms generate risks of biological invasions for today's ecological communities, including threats to human health via exposure to emergent pathogens. Whether and how such 'time-travelling' invaders could establish in modern communities is unclear, and existing data are too scarce to test hypotheses. To quantify the risks of time-travelling invasions, we isolated digital virus-like pathogens from the past records of coevolved artificial life communities and studied their simulated invasion into future states of the community. We then investigated how invasions affected diversity of the free-living bacteria-like organisms (i.e., hosts) in recipient communities compared to controls where no invasion occurred (and control invasions of contemporary pathogens). Invading pathogens could often survive and continue evolving, and in a few cases (3.1%) became exceptionally dominant in the invaded community. Even so, invaders often had negligible effects on the invaded community composition; however, in a few, highly unpredictable cases (1.1%), invaders precipitated either substantial losses (up to -32%) or gains (up to +12%) in the total richness of free-living species compared to controls. Given the sheer abundance of ancient microorganisms regularly released into modern communities, such a low probability of outbreak events still presents substantial risks. Our findings therefore suggest that unpredictable threats so far confined to science fiction and conjecture could in fact be powerful drivers of ecological change.

Additive and mostly adaptive plastic responses of gene expression to multiple stress in Tribolium castaneum.

Gene expression is known to be highly responsive to the environment and important for adjustment of metabolism but there is also growing evidence that differences in gene regulation contribute to species divergence and differences among locally adapted populations. However, most studies so far investigated populations when divergence had already occurred. Selection acting on expression levels at the onset of adaptation to an environmental change has not been characterized. Understanding the mechanisms is further complicated by the fact that environmental change is often multivariate, meaning that organisms are exposed to multiple stressors simultaneously with potentially interactive effects. Here we use a novel approach by combining fitness and whole-transcriptome data in a large-scale experiment to investigate responses to drought, heat and their combination in Tribolium castaneum. We found that fitness was reduced by both stressors and their combined effect was almost additive. Expression data showed that stressor responses were acting independently and did not interfere physiologically. Since we measured expression and fitness within the same individuals, we were able to estimate selection on gene expression levels. We found that variation in fitness can be attributed to gene expression variation and that selection pressures were environment dependent and opposite between control and stress conditions. We could further show that plastic responses of expression were largely adaptive, i.e. in the direction that should increase fitness.

A Trade-Off between Robustness to Environmental Fluctuations and Speed of Evolution.

AbstractUnderstanding how a species' life history affects its capacity to cope with environmental changes is important in the context of rapid climate changes. Reinterpreting previous results from a well-developed theoretical framework, we show that a trade-off exists between a species' ability to genetically adapt to long-term gradual environmental changes and its ability to demographically resist short-term environmental perturbations, causing variation in its vital rates. Surprisingly, this important insight has not been made formally explicit before. Choosing archetypal life histories along the fast-slow pace-of-life continuum and modeling their eco-evolutionary dynamics, we further show that long-lived species have larger demographic robustness to interannual fluctuations but limited trait evolutionary responses in gradually changing environments. In contrast, short-lived species had larger evolvability but reduced demographic robustness. This trade-off bears heavily on extinction probabilities of populations tracking fast trait changes in stochastic environments. Faster trait evolution in short-lived species came at the expense of their higher sensitivity to short-term fluctuations, causing higher extinction rates than for long-lived species. Long-lived species persisted better on short timescales but built maladaptation and an extinction debt over time. This work shows how modeling species' eco-evolutionary dynamics can help to assess species vulnerability to environmental changes.

Genomic vulnerability to rapid climate warming in a tree species with a long generation time.

The ongoing increase in global temperature affects biodiversity, especially in mountain regions where climate change is exacerbated. As sessile, long-lived organisms, trees are especially challenged in terms of adapting to rapid climate change. Here, we show that low rates of allele frequency shifts in Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) occurring near the treeline result in high genomic vulnerability to future climate warming, presumably due to the species' long generation time. Using exome sequencing data from adult and juvenile cohorts in the Swiss Alps, we found an average rate of allele frequency shift of 1.23 × 10-2 /generation (i.e. 40 years) at presumably neutral loci, with similar rates for putatively adaptive loci associated with temperature (0.96 × 10-2 /generation) and precipitation (0.91 × 10-2 /generation). These recent shifts were corroborated by forward-in-time simulations at neutral and adaptive loci. Additionally, in juvenile trees at the colonisation front we detected alleles putatively beneficial under a future warmer and drier climate. Notably, the observed past rate of allele frequency shift in temperature-associated loci was decidedly lower than the estimated average rate of 6.29 × 10-2 /generation needed to match a moderate future climate scenario (RCP4.5). Our findings suggest that species with long generation times may have difficulty keeping up with the rapid climate change occurring in high mountain areas and thus are prone to local extinction in their current main elevation range.

Floral signals evolve in a predictable way under artificial and pollinator selection in Brassica rapa.

BACKGROUND: Angiosperms employ an astonishing variety of visual and olfactory floral signals that are generally thought to evolve under natural selection. Those morphological and chemical traits can form highly correlated sets of traits. It is not always clear which of these are used by pollinators as primary targets of selection and which would be indirectly selected by being linked to those primary targets. Quantitative genetics tools for predicting multiple traits response to selection have been developed since long and have advanced our understanding of evolution of genetically correlated traits in various biological systems. We use these tools to predict the evolutionary trajectories of floral traits and understand the selection pressures acting on them. RESULTS: We used data from an artificial selection and a pollinator (bumblebee, hoverfly) evolution experiment with fast cycling Brassica rapa plants to predict evolutionary changes of 12 floral volatiles and 4 morphological floral traits in response to selection. Using the observed selection gradients and the genetic variance-covariance matrix (G-matrix) of the traits, we showed that the observed responses of most floral traits including volatiles were predicted in the right direction in both artificial- and bumblebee-selection experiment. Genetic covariance had a mix of constraining and facilitating effects on evolutionary responses. We further revealed that G-matrices also evolved in the selection processes. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our integrative study shows that floral signals, especially volatiles, evolve under selection in a mostly predictable way, at least during short term evolution. Evolutionary constraints stemming from genetic covariance affected traits evolutionary trajectories and thus it is important to include genetic covariance for predicting the evolutionary changes of a comprehensive suite of traits. Other processes such as resource limitation and selfing also need to be considered for a better understanding of floral trait evolution.

Restoring ancestral phenotypes is a general pattern in gene expression evolution during adaptation to new environments in Tribolium castaneum.

Plasticity and evolution are two processes allowing populations to respond to environmental changes, but how both are related and impact each other remains controversial. We studied plastic and evolutionary responses in gene expression of Tribolium castaneum after exposure of the beetles to new environments that differed from ancestral conditions in temperature, humidity or both. Using experimental evolution with 10 replicated lines per condition, we were able to demonstrate adaptation after 20 generations. We measured whole-transcriptome gene expression with RNA-sequencing to infer evolutionary and plastic changes. We found more evidence for changes in mean expression (shift in the intercept of reaction norms) in adapted lines than for changes in plasticity (shifts in slopes). Plasticity was mainly preserved in selected lines and was responsible for a large part of the phenotypic divergence in expression between ancestral and new conditions. However, we found that genes with the largest evolutionary changes in expression also evolved reduced plasticity and often showed expression levels closer to the ancestral stage. Results obtained in the three different conditions were similar, suggesting that restoration of ancestral expression levels during adaptation is a general evolutionary pattern. With a larger sample in the most stressful condition, we were able to detect a positive correlation between the proportion of genes with reversion of the ancestral plastic response and mean fitness per selection line.

Species' Range Dynamics Affect the Evolution of Spatial Variation in Plasticity under Environmental Change.

While clines in environmental tolerance and phenotypic plasticity along a single species' range have been reported repeatedly and are of special interest in the context of adaptation to environmental changes, we know little about their evolution. Recent empirical findings in ectotherms suggest that processes underlying dynamic species' ranges can give rise to spatial differences in environmental tolerance and phenotypic plasticity within species. We used individual-based simulations to investigate how plasticity and tolerance evolve in the course of three scenarios of species' range shifts and range expansions on environmental gradients. We found that regions of a species' range that experienced a longer history or larger extent of environmental change generally exhibited increased plasticity or tolerance. Such regions may be at the trailing edge when a species is tracking its ecological niche in space (e.g., in a climate change scenario) or at the front edge when a species expands into a new habitat (e.g., in an expansion/invasion scenario). Elevated tolerance and plasticity in the distribution center was detected when asymmetric environmental change (e.g., polar amplification) led to a range expansion. However, tolerance and plasticity clines were transient and slowly flattened out after range dynamics because of genetic assimilation.

When Do Shifts in Trait Dynamics Precede Population Declines?

Predicting population responses to environmental change is an ongoing challenge in ecology. Studies investigating the links between fitness-related phenotypic traits and demography have shown that trait dynamic responses to environmental change can sometimes precede population dynamic responses and thus can be used as an early warning signal. However, it is still unknown under which ecological and evolutionary circumstances shifts in fitness-related traits can precede population responses to environmental perturbation. Here, we take a trait-based demographic approach and investigate both trait and population dynamics in a density-regulated population in response to a gradual change in the environment. We explore the ecological and evolutionary constraints under which shifts in fitness-related traits precede a decline in population size. We show both analytically and with experimental data that under medium to slow rates of environmental change, shifts in a trait value can precede population decline. We further show the positive influence of environmental predictability, net reproductive rate, plasticity, and genetic variation on shifts in trait dynamics preceding potential population declines. These results still hold under nonconstant genetic variation and environmental stochasticity. Our study highlights ecological and evolutionary circumstances under which a fitness-related trait can be used as an early warning signal of an impending population decline.

Detecting the genomic signal of polygenic adaptation and the role of epistasis in evolution.

Over the last decade, the genomic revolution has offered the possibility to generate tremendous amounts of data that contain valuable information on the genetic basis of phenotypic traits, such as those linked to human diseases or those that allow for species to adapt to a changing environment. Most ecologically relevant traits are controlled by a large number of genes with small individual effects on trait variation, but that are connected with one another through complex developmental, metabolic and biochemical networks. As a result, it has recently been suggested that most adaptation events in natural populations are reached via correlated changes at multiple genes at a time, for which the name polygenic adaptation has been coined. The current challenge is to develop methods to extract the relevant information from genomic data to detect the signature of polygenic evolutionary change. The symposium entitled "Detecting the Genomic Signal of Polygenic Adaptation and the Role of Epistasis in Evolution" held in 2017 at the University of Zürich aimed at reviewing our current state of knowledge. In this review, we use the talks of the invited speakers to summarize some of the most recent developments in this field.

Epistasis and Pleiotropy Affect the Modularity of the Genotype-Phenotype Map of Cross-Resistance in HIV-1.

The genotype-phenotype (GP) map is a central concept in evolutionary biology as it describes the mapping of molecular genetic variation onto phenotypic trait variation. Our understanding of that mapping remains partial, especially when trying to link functional clustering of pleiotropic gene effects with patterns of phenotypic trait co-variation. Only on rare occasions have studies been able to fully explore that link and tend to show poor correspondence between modular structures within the GP map and among phenotypes. By dissecting the structure of the GP map of the replicative capacity of HIV-1 in 15 drug environments, we provide a detailed view of that mapping from mutational pleiotropic variation to phenotypic co-variation, including epistatic effects of a set of amino-acid substitutions in the reverse transcriptase and protease genes. We show that epistasis increases the pleiotropic degree of single mutations and provides modularity to the GP map of drug resistance in HIV-1. Moreover, modules of epistatic pleiotropic effects within the GP map match the phenotypic modules of correlated replicative capacity among drug classes. Epistasis thus increases the evolvability of cross-resistance in HIV by providing more drug- and class-specific pleiotropic profiles to the main effects of the mutations. We discuss the implications for the evolution of cross-resistance in HIV.

Local Adaptation Interacts with Expansion Load during Range Expansion: Maladaptation Reduces Expansion Load.

The biotic and abiotic factors that facilitate or hinder species range expansions are many and complex. We examine the impact of two genetic processes and their interaction on fitness at expanding range edges: local maladaptation resulting from the presence of an environmental gradient and expansion load resulting from increased genetic drift at the range edge. Results from spatially explicit simulations indicate that the presence of an environmental gradient during range expansion reduces expansion load; conversely, increasing expansion load allows only locally adapted populations to persist at the range edge. Increased maladaptation reduces the speed of range expansion, resulting in less genetic drift at the expanding front and more immigration from the range center, therefore reducing expansion load at the range edge. These results may have ramifications for species being forced to shift their ranges because of climate change or other anthropogenic changes. If rapidly changing climate leads to faster expansion as populations track their shifting climatic optima, populations may suffer increased expansion load beyond previous expectations.

Pedigree-based inbreeding coefficient explains more variation in fitness than heterozygosity at 160 microsatellites in a wild bird population.

Although the pedigree-based inbreeding coefficient F predicts the expected proportion of an individual's genome that is identical-by-descent (IBD), heterozygosity at genetic markers captures Mendelian sampling variation and thereby provides an estimate of realized IBD. Realized IBD should hence explain more variation in fitness than their pedigree-based expectations, but how many markers are required to achieve this in practice remains poorly understood. We use extensive pedigree and life-history data from an island population of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to show that the number of genetic markers and pedigree depth affected the explanatory power of heterozygosity and F, respectively, but that heterozygosity measured at 160 microsatellites did not explain more variation in fitness than F This is in contrast with other studies that found heterozygosity based on far fewer markers to explain more variation in fitness than F Thus, the relative performance of marker- and pedigree-based estimates of IBD depends on the quality of the pedigree, the number, variability and location of the markers employed, and the species-specific recombination landscape, and expectations based on detailed and deep pedigrees remain valuable until we can routinely afford genotyping hundreds of phenotyped wild individuals of genetic non-model species for thousands of genetic markers.

Evolution of Quantitative Traits under a Migration-Selection Balance: When Does Skew Matter?

Quantitative-genetic models of differentiation under migration-selection balance often rely on the assumption of normally distributed genotypic and phenotypic values. When a population is subdivided into demes with selection toward different local optima, migration between demes may result in asymmetric, or skewed, local distributions. Using a simplified two-habitat model, we derive formulas without a priori assuming a Gaussian distribution of genotypic values, and we find expressions that naturally incorporate higher moments, such as skew. These formulas yield predictions of the expected divergence under migration-selection balance that are more accurate than models assuming Gaussian distributions, which illustrates the importance of incorporating these higher moments to assess the response to selection in heterogeneous environments. We further show with simulations that traits with loci of large effect display the largest skew in their distribution at migration-selection balance.

Long-distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change.

Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change.

The relative impact of evolving pleiotropy and mutational correlation on trait divergence.

Both pleiotropic connectivity and mutational correlations can restrict the decoupling of traits under divergent selection, but it is unknown which is more important in trait evolution. To address this question, we create a model that permits within-population variation in both pleiotropic connectivity and mutational correlation, and compare their relative importance to trait evolution. Specifically, we developed an individual-based stochastic model where mutations can affect whether a locus affects a trait and the extent of mutational correlations in a population. We find that traits can decouple whether there is evolution in pleiotropic connectivity or mutational correlation, but when both can evolve, then evolution in pleiotropic connectivity is more likely to allow for decoupling to occur. The most common genotype found in this case is characterized by having one locus that maintains connectivity to all traits and another that loses connectivity to the traits under stabilizing selection (subfunctionalization). This genotype is favored because it allows the subfunctionalized locus to accumulate greater effect size alleles, contributing to increasingly divergent trait values in the traits under divergent selection without changing the trait values of the other traits (genetic modularization). These results provide evidence that partial subfunctionalization of pleiotropic loci may be a common mechanism of trait decoupling under regimes of corridor selection.

Pleiotropy or linkage? Their relative contributions to the genetic correlation of quantitative traits and detection by multitrait GWA studies.

Genetic correlations between traits may cause correlated responses to selection. Previous models described the conditions under which genetic correlations are expected to be maintained. Selection, mutation, and migration are all proposed to affect genetic correlations, regardless of whether the underlying genetic architecture consists of pleiotropic or tightly linked loci affecting the traits. Here, we investigate the conditions under which pleiotropy and linkage have different effects on the genetic correlations between traits by explicitly modeling multiple genetic architectures to look at the effects of selection strength, degree of correlational selection, mutation rate, mutational variance, recombination rate, and migration rate. We show that at mutation-selection(-migration) balance, mutation rates differentially affect the equilibrium levels of genetic correlation when architectures are composed of pairs of physically linked loci compared to architectures of pleiotropic loci. Even when there is perfect linkage (no recombination within pairs of linked loci), a lower genetic correlation is maintained than with pleiotropy, with a lower mutation rate leading to a larger decrease. These results imply that the detection of causal loci in multitrait association studies will be affected by the type of underlying architectures, whereby pleiotropic variants are more likely to be underlying multiple detected associations. We also confirm that tighter linkage between nonpleiotropic causal loci maintains higher genetic correlations at the traits and leads to a greater proportion of false positives in association analyses.

Disentangling adaptation from drift in bottlenecked and reintroduced populations of Alpine ibex.

Identifying local adaptation in bottlenecked species is essential for conservation management. Selection detection methods have an important role in species management plans, assessments of adaptive capacity, and looking for responses to climate change. Yet, the allele frequency changes exploited in selection detection methods are similar to those caused by the strong neutral genetic drift expected during a bottleneck. Consequently, it is often unclear what accuracy selection detection methods have across bottlenecked populations. In this study, simulations were used to explore if signals of selection could be confidently distinguished from genetic drift across 23 bottlenecked and reintroduced populations of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex). The meticulously recorded demographic history of the Alpine ibex was used to generate comprehensive simulated SNP data. The simulated SNPs were then used to benchmark the confidence we could place in outliers identified in empirical Alpine ibex RADseq derived SNP data. Within the simulated data set, the false positive rates were high for all selection detection methods (FST outlier scans and Genetic-Environment Association analyses) but fell substantially when two or more methods were combined. True positive rates were consistently low and became negligible with increased stringency. Despite finding many outlier loci in the empirical Alpine ibex SNPs, none could be distinguished from genetic drift-driven false positives. Unfortunately, the low true positive rate also prevents the exclusion of recent local adaptation within the Alpine ibex. The baselines and stringent approach outlined here should be applied to other bottlenecked species to ensure the risk of false positive, or negative, signals of selection are accounted for in conservation management plans.

Post-glacial re-colonization and natural selection have shaped growth responses of silver fir across Europe.

Warmer climate and more frequent extreme droughts will pose major threats to forest ecosystems. Past demography processes due to post-glacial recolonization and adaptation to local environmental conditions are among the main contributors to genetic differentiation processes among provenances. Assessing the intra-specific variability of tree growth responses to such changes is crucial to explore a species' potential to cope with climate warming. We combined growth-related traits derived from tree-ring width series with neutral genetic information of 18 European provenances of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) growing in two common garden experiments in Switzerland. Analyses based on neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms revealed that the studied provenances grouped into three longitudinal clusters. These three genetic clusters showed differences in growth traits (height and DBH), with the provenances from the eastern cluster exhibiting the highest growth. The Pyrenees cluster showed significantly lower recovery and resilience to the extreme drought of 2003 as well as lower values of growth autocorrelation. QST-FST and correlation analyses with climate of provenance origin suggest that the differences among provenances found in some traits result from natural selection. Our study suggests that the last post-glacial re-colonization and natural selection are the major drivers explaining the intra-specific variability in growth of silver fir across Europe. These findings highlight the importance of combining dendroecology and genetic analyses on fitness-related traits to assess the potential of a species to cope with global environmental change and provide insights to support assisted gene flow to ensure the persistence of the species in European forests.

Genetic variance in fitness and its cross-sex covariance predict adaptation during experimental evolution.

The additive genetic variation (VA ) of fitness in a population is of particular importance to quantify its adaptive potential and predict its response to rapid environmental change. Recent statistical advances in quantitative genetics and the use of new molecular tools have fostered great interest in estimating fitness VA in wild populations. However, the value of VA for fitness in predicting evolutionary changes over several generations remains mostly unknown. In our study, we addressed this question by combining classical quantitative genetics with experimental evolution in the model organism Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle) in three new environmental conditions (Dry, Hot, Hot-Dry). We tested for potential constraints that might limit adaptation, including environmental and sex genetic antagonisms captured by negative genetic covariance between environments and female and male fitness, respectively. Observed fitness changes after 20 generations mainly matched our predictions. Given that body size is commonly used as a proxy for fitness, we also tested how this trait and its genetic variance (including nonadditive genetic variance) were impacted by environmental stress. In both traits, genetic variances were sex and condition dependent, but they differed in their variance composition, cross-sex and cross-environment genetic covariances, as well as in the environmental impact on VA .