Management of the panzootic white-nose syndrome through culling of bats.

The probability of persistence of many species of hibernating bats in the United States is greatly reduced by an emerging infectious disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). In the United States WNS is rapidly spreading and is associated with a psychrophilic fungus, Geomyces destructans. WNS has caused massive mortality of bats that hibernate. Efforts to control the disease have been ineffective. The culling of bats in hibernacula has been proposed as a way to break the transmission cycle or slow the spread of WNS. We formulated a disease model to examine the efficacy of culling to abate WNS in bat populations. We based the model dynamics on disease transmission in maternity roosts, swarms, and hibernacula, which are the arenas of contact among bats. Our simulations indicated culling will not control WNS in bats primarily because contact rates are high among colonial bats, contact occurs in multiple arenas, and periodic movement between arenas occurs. In general, culling is ineffective in the control of animal diseases in the wild.

Adaptive modeling of viral diseases in bats with a focus on rabies.

Many emerging and reemerging viruses, such as rabies, SARS, Marburg, and Ebola have bat populations as disease reservoirs. Understanding the spillover from bats to humans and other animals, and the associated health risks requires an analysis of the disease dynamics in bat populations. Traditional compartmental epizootic models, which are relatively easy to implement and analyze, usually impose unrealistic aggregation assumptions about disease-related structure and depend on parameters that frequently are not measurable in field conditions. We propose a novel combination of computational and adaptive modeling approaches that address the maintenance of emerging diseases in bat colonies through individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge. The dynamics of the individual models are used to define survival, susceptibility and transmission conditions relevant to epizootics as well as to develop and parametrize models of the disease evolution into uniform and diverse populations. Applications of the proposed approach to modeling the effects of immunological heterogeneity on the dynamics of bat rabies are presented.

Brazilian free-tailed bats as insect pest regulators in transgenic and conventional cotton crops.

During the past 12000 years agricultural systems have transitioned from natural habitats to conventional agricultural regions and recently to large areas of genetically engineered (GE) croplands. This GE revolution occurred for cotton in a span of slightly more than a decade during which a switch occurred in major cotton production areas from growing 100% conventional cotton to an environment in which 95% transgenics are grown. Ecological interactions between GE targeted insects and other insectivorous insects have been investigated. However, the relationships between ecological functions (such as herbivory and ecosystem transport) and agronomic benefits of avian or mammalian insectivores in the transgenic environment generally remain unclear, although the importance of some agricultural pest management services provided by insectivorous species such as the Brazilian free-tailed bat, Tadarida brasiliensis, have been recognized. We developed a dynamic model to predict regional-scale ecological functions in agricultural food webs by using the indicators of insect pest herbivory measured by cotton boll damage and insect emigration from cotton. In the south-central Texas Winter Garden agricultural region we find that the process of insectivory by bats has a considerable impact on both the ecology and valuation of harvest in Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) transgenic and nontransgenic cotton crops. Predation on agricultural pests by insectivorous bats may enhance the economic value of agricultural systems by reducing the frequency of required spraying and delaying the ultimate need for new pesticides. In the Winter Garden region, the presence of large numbers of insectivorous bats yields a regional summer dispersion of adult pest insects from Bt cotton that is considerably reduced from the moth emigration when bats are absent in either transgenic or non-transgenic crops. This regional decrease of pest numbers impacts insect herbivory on a transcontinental scale. With a few exceptions, we find that the agronomics of both Bt and conventional cotton production is more profitable when large numbers of insectivorous bats are present.

Numerical approximations for an age-structured model of a population dispersing in a spatially heterogeneous environment.

As ecological information on life history and habitat characteristics has become more sophisticated, models have become more realistic, and simulation methodology has become more important. The numerical analysis of simulation models, especially those of complex structured ecological systems, is generally lacking. The numerical analysis techniques developed here are to help form a systematic basis for a simulation theory for physiologically structured, individual-based population models in a spatially heterogeneous habitat. The major thrust of this paper is to develop and analyse a finite-difference-finite-element numerical approximation scheme for a mathematical model of an age-structured population dispersing in a bounded spatial environment in Rn. The numerical scheme applies a characteristic finite-difference discretization for the time-age domain and a finite-element discretization with numerical integral modifications for the spatial domain. The scheme not only provides optimal error estimates from the numerical analysis perspective but also produces biologically reasonable approximate solutions in that the solutions remain non-negative. The existence and boundedness of the non-negative approximate solution are shown, and the optimal error estimate is proved.

Effects of immune system diversity and physical variation of immunotypic mixing on the dynamics of rabies in bats.

The ecology and life history of rabies viruses in bats suggest a need for an integrated modelling treatment that extends beyond traditional epidemiological approaches. We modify our adaptive modelling approach to investigate the effects of immune system structure and immunological mixing events on the disease profile of the bat colony and subsequently on the dynamics of rabies viruses in bats. Our theoretical framework, which is based on individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge and virus-specific disease mechanisms, integrates the individual components to provide information about the disease structure and the demographic composition of the bat colony. We focus on the changes in dynamics at the population level due to two processes: (1) immunological diversity in a biological process, reproduction, and (2) immunological diversity in a physical-physiological process, migration. The results suggest that immunotypic mixing plays a critical role in the disease progression within populations and it is an important factor in determining the persistence of rabies in exposed bat colonies.

Integrative models of bat rabies immunology, epizootiology and disease demography.

Bats are natural reservoirs of rabies. We address the maintenance of the disease in bat colonies by developing individual and population models that generate indicators of risk of rabies to bats, that provide dynamic estimates of effects of rabies on population densities, and that suggest consequences of viral exposures and infections in bats relative to physiological and ecological characteristics of bats in different habitats. We present individual models (within host) for the immune responses to a rabies virus challenge, an immunotypic disease model that describes the evolution of the disease and a disease demographics model, which is structured by immunotypic response governed by immune system efficiency. Model simulations are consistent with available data, characterized by relatively low prevalence of the virus in colonies and much higher prevalence of rabies virus-neutralizing antibodies. Under model conditions, there is a robust non-clinical state that can be attained by the exposed individual that allows persistence of the disease in the population.

Simulation of structured populations in chemically stressed environments.

A heterogenous environment usually impacts, and sometimes determines, the structure and function of organisms in a population. We simulate the effects of a chemical on a population in a spatially heterogeneous environment to determine perceived stressor and spatial effects on dynamic behavior of the population. The population is assumed to be physiologically structured and composed of individuals having both sessile and mobile life history stages, who utilize energetically-controlled, resource-directed, chemical-avoidance advective movements and are subjected to random or density dependent diffusion. From a modeling perspective, the presence of a chemical in the environment requires introduction of both an exposure model and an effects module. The spatial location of the chemical stressor determines the exposure levels and ultimately the effects on the population while the relative location of the resource and organism determines growth. We develop a mathematical model, the numerical analysis for this model, and the simulation techniques necessary to solve the problem of population dynamics in an environment where heterogeneity is generated by resource and chemical stressor. In the simulations, the chemical is assumed to be a nonpolar narcotic and the individuals respond to the chemical via both physiological response and by physical movement. In the absence of a chemical stressor, simulation experiments indicate that despite a propensity to move to regions of higher resource density, organisms need not concentrate in the vicinity of high levels of resource. We focus on the dynamical variations due to advection induced by the toxicant. It is demonstrated that the relationship between resource levels and toxicant concentrations is crucial in determining persistence or extinction of the population.

Applications of physiologically based population and community models to stress ecology

Se analizan las características de los modelos ecológicos sobre la influencia de factores de estres sobre el individuo de una población, sobre la población en conjunto, los aspectos computacionales, y una conclusión sobre el avance de los programas de computadoras, tanto de las ventajas como de las desventajas

Applications of physiologically based population and community models to stress ecology

Se analizan las características de los modelos ecológicos sobre la influencia de factores de estres sobre el individuo de una población, sobre la población en conjunto, los aspectos computacionales, y una conclusión sobre el avance de los programas de computadoras, tanto de las ventajas como de las desventajas