Bayesian estimation of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in Indiana by random testing.

From 25 to 29 April 2020, the state of Indiana undertook testing of 3,658 randomly chosen state residents for the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, the agent causing COVID-19 disease. This was the first statewide randomized study of COVID-19 testing in the United States. Both PCR and serological tests were administered to all study participants. This paper describes statistical methods used to address nonresponse among various demographic groups and to adjust for testing errors to reduce bias in the estimates of the overall disease prevalence in Indiana. These adjustments were implemented through Bayesian methods, which incorporated all available information on disease prevalence and test performance, along with external data obtained from census of the Indiana statewide population. Both adjustments appeared to have significant impact on the unadjusted estimates, mainly due to upweighting data in study participants of non-White races and Hispanic ethnicity and anticipated false-positive and false-negative test results among both the PCR and antibody tests utilized in the study.

Laws Governing State Health Official Appointments: A Legal and Historical Review.

OBJECTIVE: The current study presents the legal epidemiological review of State Health Official (SHO) appointment laws, including the evolution of educational and experience requirements of SHOs over time. Findings can inform the discussion about state laws and the substantive, multidisciplinary qualifications essential to successfully leading state public health agencies in the 21st century. METHODS: Standard policy surveillance methods were used to collect and assess the statutes governing SHO appointment and eligibility from all 50 states and the District of Columbia between 1995 and 2020. RESULTS: SHOs are most frequently appointed by their jurisdiction's Health Secretary (n = 17), followed by Governor nominations with legislative approval (n = 15), and 13 states where the Governor is the sole SHO appointing authority. While a large majority of jurisdictions require certain professional and/or educational minimum qualifications to serve as an SHO, 11 states have no professional or experiential minimum qualifications. The most common minimum requirement found was possessing a medical degree, which is required in 22 jurisdictions (including Washington, District of Columbia). Twelve of these states require the physician to have additional education or experience, such as the possession of experience in public health (n = 5), experience in both public health and management (n = 3), or holding an additional health-related degree (n = 2). Four states added a medical degree as a requirement for SHOs over the last 25 years, while 5 states removed their medical degree requirement. CONCLUSIONS: States should reassess their eligibility requirements for SHO service in light of the advancement and demands of public health leadership in the 21st century, as many states continue to look to those with medical training as the primary source for such leadership.

Design and Implementation of the Diabetes Impact Project: A Multisector Partnership to Reduce Diabetes Burden in Indianapolis Communities.

CONTEXT: Community-level health disparities have not arisen suddenly but are the result of long-term systemic inequities. This article describes the design and implementation of a community-engaged multisector partnership to address health disparities by reducing the diabetes burden in 3 Indianapolis communities through the implementation of evidence-based strategies across the prevention continuum. PROGRAM: The project has 5 foundational design principles: engage partners from multiple sectors to address community health, focus on geographic communities most affected by the health disparity, practice authentic community engagement, commit for the long term, and utilize a holistic approach spanning the prevention continuum. IMPLEMENTATION: The design principles are incorporated into the following project components in each community: (1) health system community health workers (hCHWs), (2) neighborhood CHWs (nCHWs), (3) community health promotion initiatives, and (4) resident steering committees, as well as a backbone organization responsible for overall coordination, project communication, evaluation, and partnership coordination. EVALUATION: This complex multilevel intervention is being evaluated using data sources and methodologies suited to each project component and its purpose overall. Each component is being evaluated independently and included holistically to measure the impact of the project on the health and culture of health in the communities. Key Performance Indicators were established upon project initiation as our common metrics for the partnership. Because complex interventions aiming at population-level change take time, we evaluate Diabetes Impact Project-Indianapolis Neighborhoods (DIP-IN), assuming its impact will take many years to achieve. DISCUSSION: Health disparities such as the diabetes prevalence in project communities have not arisen suddenly but are the result of long-term systemic inequities. This complex issue requires a complex holistic solution with long-term commitment, trusted partnerships, and investment from diverse sectors as seen in this project. Implications for policy and practice include the need to identify stable funding mechanisms to support these types of holistic approaches.

Institutional factors associated with hospital partnerships for population health: A pooled cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals are increasingly engaging in partnerships to address population health in response to national policies, such as value-based payment models. However, little is known about how institutional factors influence hospital partnerships for population health. PURPOSE: Guided by institutional theory, we examine the association between institutional pressures (coercive, normative, and mimetic isomorphism) and hospital partnerships for population health. METHODOLOGY: A pooled cross-sectional analysis used an unbalanced panel of 10,777 hospital-year observations representing respondents to a supplemental question of the American Hospital Association's annual survey (2015-2017). The analysis included descriptive and bivariate statistics, and regression models that adjusted for repeated observations to examine the relationship between key independent variables and partnerships over time. FINDINGS: In regression analyses, we found the most support for measures of coercive (e.g., regulatory factors) isomorphism, with nonprofit status, participation in accountable care organizations, and acceptance of bundled payments, all being consistently and significantly associated with partnerships across all organization types. Modest increases were observed from 2015 to 2017 for hospital partnerships with public health organizations (+2.8% points, p < .001), governmental organizations (+2.0% points, p = .009), schools (+4.1% points, p < .001), and businesses (+2.2% points, p = .007). PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Our results suggest that institutional factors, particularly those related to regulatory policies and programs, may influence hospital partnerships to support population health. Findings from this study can assist hospital leaders in assessing the factors that can support or impede the creation of partnerships to support their population health efforts.

Indoor Public Mask-Wearing Behavior Changes in Response to National, State, and Local COVID-19 Policies.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate changes in public mask-wearing behavior in response to public health policies during COVID-19. DESIGN: Panel of observed public mask-wearing. SETTING: Counts of adult behavior in Marion County, Indiana, between November 15, 2020, and May 31, 2021. DETERMINANTS OF INTEREST: (1) Removal of state masking requirement; (2) introduction of the National Strategy for the COVID-19 Response and Pandemic Preparedness; (3) the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation that vaccinated individuals did not need to wear masks in public; and (4) COVID-19 vaccine availability. OUTCOME: Percent observed with correct mask-wearing. ANALYSES: Fixed-effects models estimated the association between policies and mask-wearing. RESULTS: Ending Indiana's mask requirement was not associated with changes in correct mask-wearing. The CDC's recommendation was associated with a decrease of 12.3 percentage points in correct mask-wearing (95% CI, -23.47 to -1.05; P = .032). CONCLUSIONS: Behavior encouraged by local mask requirements appeared to be resilient to changes in state policy. CDC recommendations appeared influential.

Successive Wave Analysis to Assess Nonresponse Bias in a Statewide Random Sample Testing Study for SARS-CoV-2.

INTRODUCTION: Nonresponse bias occurs when participants in a study differ from eligible nonparticipants in ways that can distort study conclusions. The current study uses successive wave analysis, an established but underutilized approach, to assess nonresponse bias in a large-scale SARS-CoV-2 prevalence study. Such an approach makes use of reminders to induce participation among individuals. Based on the response continuum theory, those requiring several reminders to participate are more like nonrespondents than those who participate in a study upon first invitation, thus allowing for an examination of factors affecting participation. METHODS: Study participants from the Indiana Population Prevalence SARS-CoV-2 Study were divided into 3 groups (eg, waves) based upon the number of reminders that were needed to induce participation. Independent variables were then used to determine whether key demographic characteristics as well as other variables hypothesized to influence study participation differed by wave using chi-square analyses. Specifically, we examined whether race, age, gender, education level, health status, tobacco behaviors, COVID-19-related symptoms, reasons for participating in the study, and SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates differed by wave. RESULTS: Respondents included 3658 individuals, including 1495 in wave 1 (40.9%), 1246 in wave 2 (34.1%), and 917 in wave 3 (25%), for an overall participation rate of 23.6%. No significant differences in any examined variables were observed across waves, suggesting similar characteristics among those needing additional reminders compared with early participants. CONCLUSIONS: Using established techniques, we found no evidence of nonresponse bias in a random sample with a relatively low response rate. A hypothetical additional wave of participants would be unlikely to change original study conclusions. Successive wave analysis is an effective and easy tool that can allow public health researchers to assess, and possibly adjust for, nonresponse in any epidemiological survey that uses reminders to encourage participation.

Association of Health Status and Nicotine Consumption with SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates.

BACKGROUND: Much of what is known about COVID-19 risk factors comes from patients with serious symptoms who test positive. While risk factors for hospitalization or death include chronic conditions and smoking; less is known about how health status or nicotine consumption is associated with risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among individuals who do not present clinically. METHODS: Two community-based population samples (including individuals randomly and nonrandomly selected for statewide testing, n = 8214) underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing in nonclinical settings. Each participant was tested for current (viral PCR) and past (antibody) infection in either April or June of 2020. Before testing, participants provided demographic information and self-reported health status and nicotine and tobacco behaviors (smoking, chewing, vaping/e-cigarettes). Using descriptive statistics and a bivariate logistic regression model, we examined the association between health status and use of tobacco or nicotine with SARS-CoV-2 positivity on either PCR or antibody tests. RESULTS: Compared to people with self-identified "excellent" or very good health status, those reporting "good" or "fair" health status had a higher risk of past or current infections. Positive smoking status was inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Chewing tobacco was associated with infection and the use of vaping/e-cigarettes was not associated with infection. CONCLUSIONS: In a statewide, community-based population drawn for SARS-CoV-2 testing, we find that overall health status was associated with infection rates. Unlike in studies of COVID-19 patients, smoking status was inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity. More research is needed to further understand the nature of this relationship.

Hospital Partnerships for Population Health: A Systematic Review of the Literature.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The U.S. healthcare system continues to experience high costs and suboptimal health outcomes that are largely influenced by social determinants of health. National policies such as the Affordable Care Act and value-based payment reforms incentivize healthcare systems to engage in strategies to improve population health. Healthcare systems are increasingly expanding or developing new partnerships with community-based organizations to support these efforts. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature in the United States to identify examples of hospital-community partnerships; the main purposes or goals of partnerships; study designs used to assess partnerships; and potential outcomes (e.g., process- or health-related) associated with partnerships. Using robust keyword searches and a thorough reference review, we identified 37 articles published between January 2008 and December 2019 for inclusion. Most studies employed descriptive study designs (n = 21); health needs assessments were the most common partnership focus (n = 15); and community/social service (n = 21) and public health organizations (n = 15) were the most common partner types. Qualitative findings suggest hospital-community partnerships hold promise for breaking down silos, improving communication across sectors, and ensuring appropriate interventions for specific populations. Few studies in this review reported quantitative findings. In those that did, results were mixed, with the strongest support for improvements in measures of hospitalizations. This review provides an initial synthesis of hospital partnerships to address population health and presents valuable insights to hospital administrators, particularly those leading population health efforts.

Public Health Graduates and Employment in Governmental Public Health: Factors That Facilitate and Deter Working in This Setting.

OBJECTIVES: Previous surveys of public health graduates examine where they work; however, little is known about public health graduates' employment decisions or the factors that facilitate interest or deter interest in working in governmental public health settings. The purpose of the current pilot study was to build on the information previously collected in graduate surveys by expanding questions to undergraduates and asking about decisions and factors that influence choices of employment. METHODS: A pilot survey of graduates of public health programs was conducted. Respondents provided information about their degree programs, year of graduation, and current employment. Questions asked where they applied for jobs, factors they considered, experiences with the application processes, and so forth. Descriptive statistics were calculated using frequencies and proportions. Open-ended responses were qualitatively reviewed and general themes were extracted. RESULTS: Employment preferences were ranked the highest for not-for-profit organizations (ranked first among 21 of 62, 33.9%), followed by governmental public health agencies (ranked first among 18 of 62, 29.0%). Among master of public health graduates, 54.7% sought employment within this setting, although only 17.0% of those employed full time at the time of the survey were employed within a governmental public health agency. Job security (84.7%), competitive benefits (82.2%), identifying with the mission of the organization (82.2%), and opportunities for training/continuing education (80.6%) were the most influential, positive factors garnering interest in working in governmental public health. Factors that were the biggest deterrents included the ability to innovate (19.2%), competitive salary (17.8%), and autonomy/employee empowerment (15.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of the respondents applied for a job within governmental public health in anticipation of or since graduating. However, only a quarter of employed respondents are currently working within governmental public health, suggesting a missed opportunity for recruiting the other quarter who applied and were interested in governmental positions.

How Many SARS-CoV-2-Infected People Require Hospitalization? Using Random Sample Testing to Better Inform Preparedness Efforts.

CONTEXT: Existing hospitalization ratios for COVID-19 typically use case counts in the denominator, which problematically underestimates total infections because asymptomatic and mildly infected persons rarely get tested. As a result, surge models that rely on case counts to forecast hospital demand may be inaccurately influencing policy and decision-maker action. OBJECTIVE: Based on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data derived from a statewide random sample (as opposed to relying on reported case counts), we determine the infection-hospitalization ratio (IHR), defined as the percentage of infected individuals who are hospitalized, for various demographic groups in Indiana. Furthermore, for comparison, we show the extent to which case-based hospitalization ratios, compared with the IHR, overestimate the probability of hospitalization by demographic group. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of statewide prevalence data from Indiana, COVID-19 hospitalization data extracted from a statewide health information exchange, and all reported COVID-19 cases to the state health department. SETTING: State of Indiana as of April 30, 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Demographic-stratified IHRs and case-hospitalization ratios. RESULTS: The overall IHR was 2.1% and varied more by age than by race or sex. Infection-hospitalization ratio estimates ranged from 0.4% for those younger than 40 years to 9.2% for those older than 60 years. Hospitalization rates based on case counts overestimated the IHR by a factor of 10, but this overestimation differed by demographic groups, especially age. CONCLUSIONS: In this first study of the IHR based on population prevalence, our results can improve forecasting models of hospital demand-especially in preparation for the upcoming winter period when an increase in SARS CoV-2 infections is expected.

Population Point Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Based on a Statewide Random Sample - Indiana, April 25-29, 2020.

Population prevalence of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), varies by subpopulation and locality. U.S. studies of SARS-CoV-2 infection have examined infections in nonrandom samples (1) or seroprevalence in specific populations* (2), which are limited in their generalizability and cannot be used to accurately calculate infection-fatality rates. During April 25-29, 2020, Indiana conducted statewide random sample testing of persons aged ≥12 years to assess prevalence of active infection and presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2; additional nonrandom sampling was conducted in racial and ethnic minority communities to better understand the impact of the virus in certain racial and ethnic minority populations. Estimates were adjusted for nonresponse to reflect state demographics using an iterative proportional fitting method. Among 3,658 noninstitutionalized participants in the random sample survey, the estimated statewide point prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing was 1.74% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10-2.54); 44.2% of these persons reported no symptoms during the 2 weeks before testing. The prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) seropositivity, indicating past infection, was 1.09% (95% CI = 0.76-1.45). The overall prevalence of current and previous infections of SARS-CoV-2 in Indiana was 2.79% (95% CI = 2.02-3.70). In the random sample, higher overall prevalences were observed among Hispanics and those who reported having a household contact who had previously been told by a health care provider that they had COVID-19. By late April, an estimated 187,802 Indiana residents were currently or previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 (9.6 times higher than the number of confirmed cases [17,792]) (3), and 1,099 residents died (infection-fatality ratio = 0.58%). The number of reported cases represents only a fraction of the estimated total number of infections. Given the large number of persons who remain susceptible in Indiana, adherence to evidence-based public health mitigation and containment measures (e.g., social distancing, consistent and correct use of face coverings, and hand hygiene) is needed to reduce surge in hospitalizations and prevent morbidity and mortality from COVID-19.

Tenure and Turnover Among State Health Officials From the SHO-CASE Survey: Correlates and Consequences of Changing Leadership.

OBJECTIVE: To examine characteristics associated with tenure length of State Health Officials (SHOs) and examine reasons and consequences for SHO turnover. DESIGN: Surveys of current and former SHOs linked with secondary data from the United Health Foundation. SETTING: Original survey responses from SHOs in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Respondents included SHOs who served between 1973 and 2017. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Tenure length and consequences of SHO turnover. RESULTS: Average completed tenure among SHOs was 5.3 years (median = 4) and was shorter in recent time periods compared with decades prior. Older age at appointment (ß = -0.109, P = .005) and those holding a management degree (ß = -1.835, P = .017) and/or a law degree (ß = -3.553, P < .001) were each associated with shorter SHO tenures. State Health Officials from states in the top quartile for health rankings had significantly longer average tenures (ß = 1.717, P = .036). Many former SHOs believed that their tenure was too short and reported that their departure had either a significant or very large effect on their agency's ability to fulfill its mission. CONCLUSIONS: State Health Official tenures have become shorter over time and continue to be shorter than industry chief executive officers and best practice recommendations from organizational researchers. States have an opportunity to consider and address how factors within their control influence the stability of the SHO position.

Public Health Senior Deputy's Perceptions of State Health Officials' Success Factors: Professional Characteristics, Personal Attributes, and Signs of Derailment.

CONTEXT: Senior deputies work closely with state health officials (SHOs) in state public health agencies and are a valuable resource for understanding their roles, responsibilities, and characteristics. OBJECTIVE: Examine senior deputies' perceptions of SHO success factors. DESIGN: Qualitative study including nominal group technique focus groups, a small expert focus group, and interviews. SETTING: US state public health agencies. PARTICIPANTS: Senior deputies in state public health agencies 2016/2017. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Perceptions of SHO success factors. RESULTS: The most commonly perceived professional characteristics of a successful SHO included the following: credible trusted voice with internal respect/external credibility; improves public health prominence/visibility with an evidence-based agenda; and grows the agency/leaves it stronger. Perceptions of the most common personal attributes for success included excellent listening skills; credibility/honesty/trustworthiness; and public health experience/knowledge. The most commonly perceived signs of SHO derailment included when SHOs have a visible lack of support of elected officials (eg, governor/legislators) and when the SHO is "bypassed" by elected officials. CONCLUSIONS: A key finding of this study centers on the relationship between the SHO and the governor; meeting the expectations of the governor was identified as a significant professional characteristic of success. Findings highlight the expectation that SHOs have a clear understanding of the governor's priorities and how to relate to the governor's office early in their tenure. This goal should be a priority for transition teams that aid new SHOs as they begin in their new roles. Study insights can help better prepare for orientation/onboarding of new SHOs. Development of key transition documents and tools for rapid onboarding should be considered. Transition teams should assist new SHOs in establishing an understanding of the governor's priorities and how to best communicate with to the governor's office early in their tenure. Strong senior management teams should be prioritized and fostered.

State Health Officials: Backgrounds and Qualifications.

CONTEXT: State health officials (SHOs), the executive and administrative leaders of state public health, play a key role in policy development, must be versed in the relevant/current evidence, and provide expertise about health issues to the legislature and the governor. OBJECTIVE: To provide an empirical examination of SHO backgrounds and qualifications over time. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional survey of current/former SHOs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: State health official educational backgrounds; public health experience; previous employment setting. RESULTS: Two-thirds of respondents (64.6%) reported having a medical degree, approximately half (48.3%) a formal public health degree, and almost one-quarter (21.8%) a management degree. The majority had governmental public health experience at some prior point in their career (70.0%). Almost two-thirds worked in governmental public health immediately before becoming an SHO. The proportion that was female increased significantly by decade from 5.6% in the 1970s/80s to 46.4% in the 2010s (P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: The main finding from this study shows that more than two-thirds of SHOs have had governmental public health experience at some point in their career. This is not a new trend as there were no statistical differences in public health experience by decade. More than half of the SHOs were appointed to the role directly from governmental public health, indicating that their public health experience is timely and likely germane to their appointment as SHO. Findings also indicate improvements in gender diversity among one of the most influential leadership roles in governmental public health whereas significant changes in racial and ethnic diversity were not identified. Women are increasingly being appointed as SHOs, indicating increasing gender diversity in this influential position. Given that governmental public health employees are predominantly women, there is still room for gender equity improvements in executive leadership roles. This is coupled with the need for further racial and ethnic diversity improvements as well.

State Health Official Career Advancement and Sustainability Evaluation-Description of the Methods Used in the SHO-CASE Study.

State health officials (SHOs) lead state governmental public health agencies, playing an important role in their states. However, little comprehensive research has examined SHOs or characteristics of these leaders, limiting evidence about ways to improve SHO selection and subsequent performance. This brief describes the methods of the SHO-CASE study focused on current and former SHOs in state public health agencies. Methods used include qualitative components that informed the development of survey questions, survey administration, and survey response. A total of 147 SHOs responded to the SHO survey representing every state and Washington, District of Columbia. The SHO-CASE study survey database represents the most comprehensive database of its kind regarding a range of attributes of current and former SHOs. These data can be used to explore factors contributing to SHO success including valuable insights into effectively working with the states' elected officials.

High Turnover Among State Health Officials/Public Health Directors: Implications for the Public's Health.

CONTEXT: State health officials (SHOs) serve a critical role as the leaders of state public health systems. Despite their many responsibilities, there is no formal process for preparation to become an SHO, and few requirements influence the selection of an SHO. Furthermore, to date, no studies have examined SHO tenure or their experiences. OBJECTIVE: This study examines SHO tenure over time and the relationship between SHO tenure and organizational and state attributes. DESIGN: This longitudinal study employed primary data on SHOs and secondary data from the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials on organizational attributes of state public health agencies. SETTING: This study examines SHOs within the United States. PARTICIPANTS: SHOs who served in years 1980-2017. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual average SHO tenure; average SHO tenure by state. RESULTS: In the 38 years of this study, 508 individuals served as SHOs in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The average tenure over this period was 4.1 years, with a median tenure of 2.9 years. During the study period, almost 20% of SHOs served terms of 1 year or less. A total of 32 SHOs (32/508 or 6.3%) served for 10 years or longer. Excluding SHOs who served 10 years or longer (n = 32 SHOs who had a collective 478 years of tenure) reduces the average term in office to 3.5 years. The average number of new SHOs per year is 12.3. SHOs appointed by a board of health averaged more than 8 years in office compared with averages just under 4 years for those appointed by governors or secretaries of state agencies. CONCLUSIONS: There are notable differences in SHO tenure across states. Future research is needed to further examine SHO tenure, effectiveness, job satisfaction, transitions, and the relationship between SHOs and state health. It may be valuable to expand on opportunities for new SHOs to learn from peers who have moderate to long tenures as well as SHO alumni. Given that average SHO tenure is approximately 4 years and that an SHO could be thrust into the national spotlight at a moment's notice, governors may want to consider experience over partisanship as they appoint new SHOs.