Associations of long-term physical activity trajectories with coronary artery calcium progression and cardiovascular disease events: results from the CARDIA study.

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to assess the associations of physical activity (PA) trajectories across a 25-year span with coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression, and subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. METHODS: We included 2497 participants from the Coronary Artery Disease Risk Development in Young Adults study who had computed tomography-assessment of CAC at baseline (year 15: 2000-2001) and follow-up (year 20 or 25) and at least three measures of PA from year 0 to year 25. Long-term PA trajectories were determined by latent class modelling using a validated questionnaire. RESULTS: Among the included participants, 1120 (44.9%) were men, 1418 (56.8%) were white, and the mean (SD) age was 40.4 (3.6) years. We identified three distinct PA trajectories based on PA average levels and change patterns: low (below PA guidelines, n=1332; 53.3%); moderate (meeting and slightly over PA guidelines, n=919; 36.8%) and high (about three times PA guidelines or more, n=246; 9.9%). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 8.9 (2.1) years, 640 (25.6%) participants had CAC progression. Participants in the high PA trajectory group had a higher risk of CAC progression than those in the low PA trajectory group after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (HR 1.51; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.94). However, high PA trajectory was not associated with an increased risk of incident CVD events (HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.44 to 2.31) and the incidence of CVD events in participants with CAC progression was similar across all three PA trajectory groups (p=0.736). CONCLUSION: Long-term PA about three times the guidelines or more is independently associated with CAC progression; however, no additional risk of incident CVD events could be detected.

Lung Function Decline in Young Adulthood and Coronary Artery Calcium Progression in Midlife.

BACKGROUND: Reduced lung function has been linked to cardiovascular disease, but population-based evidence on the relationship between lung function decline and coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression is rare. METHODS: A total of 2694 participants (44.7% men) with a mean ± standard deviation age of 40.4 ± 3.6 years from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) were included. The rates of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) over a 20-year period were calculated for each participant and categorized into quartiles. The primary outcome was CAC progression. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 8.9 years, 455 (16.9%) participants had CAC progression. After adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for CAC progression were higher for participants in the 2nd (Q2), 3rd (Q3), and highest quartiles (Q4) of FVC decline compared with those in the lowest quartile (Q1): 1.366 (1.003-1.861), 1.412 (1.035-1.927), and 1.789 (1.318-2.428), respectively. Similar trends were observed for the association between FEV1 and CAC progression. The association remained robust across a series of sensitivity analyses and all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: A faster decline in FVC or FEV1 during young adulthood is independently associated with an increased risk of CAC progression in midlife. Maintaining optimal lung function during young adulthood may improve future cardiovascular health.

Predictors of long-term absence of coronary artery calcium in individuals with high blood pressure: results from the MESA study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individuals with high blood pressure (BP) have varying risks of cardiovascular events due to other coexisting factors. We aimed to identify the predictors of long-term absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in individuals with high BP, which is an indicator of healthy arterial aging and can guide preventive strategies. METHODS: We analyzed data from participants with high BP (≥120/80 mm Hg) in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who had baseline CAC = 0 and underwent a second CAC scanning after 10 years. We used multivariable logistic regression to evaluate the association between various risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and long-term CAC = 0. We also calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to predict the phenotype of healthy arterial aging in this population. RESULTS: We included 830 participants (37.6% male, mean ± SD age of 59.4 ± 8.7 years). During follow-up, 46.5% of participants (n = 386) had CAC = 0, and they were younger and had fewer metabolic syndrome components. Adding ASCVD risk factors to the demographic model (age, sex, and ethnicity) moderately increased the predictive value for long-term CAC = 0 (AUC: demographic model + ASCVD risk factors vs. demographic model alone, 0.653 vs. 0.597, p < .001; category net reclassification improvement = 0.104, p = .044; integrated discrimination improvement = 0.040, p < .001). CONCLUSION: In individuals with high BP and initial CAC = 0, over 40% maintained CAC = 0 during a 10-year follow-up, which was associated with fewer ASCVD risk factors. These findings may have implications for preventive strategies in individuals with high BP.Clinical Trial registration number: The MESA was registered at clinical trials. gov as NCT00005487.KEY MESSAGESNearly half (46.5%) of individuals with high blood pressure (BP) maintained a long-term absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) during a 10-year follow-up, and this was associated with a 66.6% lower risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events compared to those who developed incident CAC.Individuals with high BP, who are usually assumed to have an increased risk of ASCVD, exhibit significant heterogeneity in their ASCVD risk; those who maintain CAC = 0 have a lower ASCVD risk.Adding overall ASCVD risk factors to demographic information resulted in a moderate improvement in predicting long-term CAC = 0.