Differential changes in life cycle-event phenology provide a window into regional population declines.

Climate change affects the phenology of annual life cycle events of organisms, such as reproduction and migration. Shifts in the timing of these events could have important population implications directly, or provide information about the mechanisms driving population trajectories, especially if they differ between life cycle event. We examine if such shifts occur in a declining migratory passerine bird (willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus), which exhibits latitudinally diverging population trajectories. We find evidence of phenological shifts in breeding initiation, breeding progression and moult that differ across geographic and spring temperature gradients. Moult initiation following warmer springs advances faster in the south than in the north, resulting in proportionally shorter breeding seasons, reflecting higher nest failure rates in the south and in warmer years. Tracking shifts in multiple life cycle events allowed us to identify points of failure in the breeding cycle in regions where the species has negative population trends, thereby demonstrating the utility of phenology analyses for illuminating mechanistic pathways underlying observed population trajectories.

Hinfluences severe disease-mediated population declines in two of the most common garden bird species in Great Britain.

The influence of supplementary feeding of wildlife on disease transmission and its consequent impacts on population dynamics are underappreciated. In Great Britain, supplementary feeding is hypothesised to have enabled the spread of the protozoan parasite, Trichomonas gallinae, from columbids to finches, leading to epidemic finch trichomonosis and a rapid population decline of greenfinch (Chloris chloris). More recently, chaffinch (Fringilla coelebs), has also declined markedly from the second to fifth commonest bird in Britain. Using citizen science data, we show that both declines were driven primarily by reduced adult survival, with the greatest reductions occurring in peri-domestic habitats, where supplementary food provision is common. Post-mortem examinations showed a proportional increase in chaffinch trichomonosis cases, near-contemporaneous with its population decline. Like greenfinches, chaffinches often use supplementary food, but are less associated with human habitation. Our results support the hypothesis that supplementary feeding can increase parasite transmission frequency within and between common species. However, the dynamics behind resultant population change can vary markedly, highlighting the need for integrating disease surveillance with demographic monitoring. Other species susceptible to T. gallinae infection may also be at risk. Supplementary feeding guidelines for wildlife should include disease mitigation strategies to ensure that benefits to target species outweigh risks.