Combining Inserts With Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs to Promote Smoking Cessation: A 2-Week Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette pack inserts with messages on cessation benefits and advice are a promising labeling policy that may help promote smoking cessation. PURPOSE: To assess insert effects, with and without accompanying pictorial health warning labels(HWLs), on hypothesized psychosocial and behavioral outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a 2 × 2 between-subject randomized trial (inserts with efficacy messages vs. no inserts; large pictorial HWLs vs. small text HWLs), with 367 adults who smoked at least 10 cigarettes a day. Participants received a 14-day supply of their preferred cigarettes with packs modified to reflect their experimental condition. Over 2 weeks, we surveyed participants approximately 4-5 times a day during their smoking sessions, querying feelings about smoking, level of worry about harms from smoking, self-efficacy to cut down on cigarettes, self-efficacy to quit, hopefulness about quitting, and motivation to quit. Each evening, participants reported their perceived susceptibility to smoking harms and, for the last 24 hr, their frequency of thinking about smoking harms and cessation benefits, conversations about smoking cessation or harms, and foregoing or stubbing out cigarettes before they finished smoking. Mixed-effects ordinal and logistic models were estimated to evaluate differences between groups. RESULTS: Participants whose packs included inserts were more likely than those whose packs did not include inserts to report foregoing or stubbing out of cigarettes (OR = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.36, 4.20). Otherwise, no statistically significant associations were found between labeling conditions and outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides some evidence, albeit limited, that pack inserts with efficacy messages can promote behaviors that predict smoking cessation attempts.

Cigarette pack inserts (small leaflets inside packs) with messages about quitting benefits and tips to quit may promote smoking cessation. We randomly assigned 367 adult smokers to one of four groups: control group with small health warning labels (HWLs) on the side of packs; inserts with cessation messages and small HWLs; large picture HWLs showing health effects from smoking; inserts and large picture HWLs. Participants received a 14-day supply of their preferred cigarettes in packs that reflected their assigned group. Over 2 weeks, we surveyed participants 4­5 times a day during times when they smoked, asking their feelings about smoking and smoking-related harms, confidence to reduce cigarettes and quit, hopefulness about quitting, and motivation to quit. Each evening, participants reported on the prior 24 hr: how often they thought about smoking harms and cessation benefits; conversations about smoking cessation or harms; and foregoing or stubbing out cigarettes before they finished smoking. People whose packs had inserts (with or without picture HWLs) were more likely than those whose packs did not include inserts (control group or picture HWLs only) to report foregoing or stubbing out of cigarettes. This study provides some evidence that inserts with cessation messages may promote smoking cessation.

Differential responses to cigarette package labeling alternatives among adults who smoke: Results from a randomized trial.

INTRODUCTION: Little experimental research has evaluated whether the effects of cigarette package inserts with efficacy messages and/or pictorial health warning labels (PHWLs) differ across key subgroups of adults who smoke. METHODS: Adults who reported currently smoking (n=367) were randomly assigned to one of four groups: small text-only health warning labels (HWLs) on pack sides (control); inserts with efficacy messages and small HWLs (inserts-only); PHWLs showing harms of smoking (PHWLs-only); both (inserts+PHWLs). Participants received a 14-day supply of cigarettes labeled to reflect their group. Every evening over two weeks, participants reported forgoing and stubbing out cigarettes before they finished smoking over the prior 24 hours, combined into a binary indicator of either behavior (e.g., forgoing/stubbing). Separate mixed-effects logistic models were estimated to evaluate moderation of labeling group contrasts (i.e., PHWLs vs not; inserts vs. not; inserts-only vs. inserts+PHWLs; PHWLs-only vs. inserts+PHWLs) by baseline covariates (self-efficacy to quit, intention to quit, education, health literacy, time discounting), predicting day-level forgoing/stubbing. RESULTS: Education moderated PHWL effects, with PHWLs predicting more forgoing/stubbing only among those with low education (OR=4.68, p<0.001). Time discounting moderated insert effects, with inserts promoting fogoing/stubbing only among those with low time discounting (i.e., lower impulsivity; OR=4.35, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inserts with efficacy messages appear effective mostly among people with low time discounting, whereas PHWLs appear most effective amongst those with low education, suggesting their potential to address education-related disparities. Labeling strategies appeared equally effective across subgroups defined by self-efficacy to quit, quit intention, and health literacy. Combining inserts with PHWLs did not appear to mitigate moderation effects. IMPLICATIONS: This randomized trial with adults who smoke suggests that cigarette packs with inserts describing cessation benefits and tips can promote cessation-related behaviors (i.e., forgoing or stubbing out cigarettes) among those with low time discounting (i.e., low impulsivity). Alternative interventions may be needed for people with high time discounting, as found in cessation trials. Pictorial health warning labels (PHWLs) appear most effective among those with low education, potentially addressing education-related disparities. No differential effects were found for those with different levels of self-efficacy to quit, quit intentions, or health literacy. Combining inserts and PHWLs may not be more effective than either alone.

Cytoplasmic synthesis of endogenous Alu complementary DNA via reverse transcription and implications in age-related macular degeneration.

Alu retroelements propagate via retrotransposition by hijacking long interspersed nuclear element-1 (L1) reverse transcriptase (RT) and endonuclease activities. Reverse transcription of Alu RNA into complementary DNA (cDNA) is presumed to occur exclusively in the nucleus at the genomic integration site. Whether Alu cDNA is synthesized independently of genomic integration is unknown. Alu RNA promotes retinal pigmented epithelium (RPE) death in geographic atrophy, an untreatable type of age-related macular degeneration. We report that Alu RNA-induced RPE degeneration is mediated via cytoplasmic L1-reverse-transcribed Alu cDNA independently of retrotransposition. Alu RNA did not induce cDNA production or RPE degeneration in L1-inhibited animals or human cells. Alu reverse transcription can be initiated in the cytoplasm via self-priming of Alu RNA. In four health insurance databases, use of nucleoside RT inhibitors was associated with reduced risk of developing atrophic macular degeneration (pooled adjusted hazard ratio, 0.616; 95% confidence interval, 0.493-0.770), thus identifying inhibitors of this Alu replication cycle shunt as potential therapies for a major cause of blindness.

Functional Multivariable Logistic Regression With an Application to HIV Viral Suppression Prediction.

Motivated by improving the prediction of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) suppression status using electronic health records (EHR) data, we propose a functional multivariable logistic regression model, which accounts for the longitudinal binary process and continuous process simultaneously. Specifically, the longitudinal measurements for either binary or continuous variables are modeled by functional principal components analysis, and their corresponding functional principal component scores are used to build a logistic regression model for prediction. The longitudinal binary data are linked to underlying Gaussian processes. The estimation is done using penalized spline for the longitudinal continuous and binary data. Group-lasso is used to select longitudinal processes, and the multivariate functional principal components analysis is proposed to revise functional principal component scores with the correlation. The method is evaluated via comprehensive simulation studies and then applied to predict viral suppression using EHR data for people living with HIV in South Carolina.

Effect of body mass index on acute postoperative complications following Total Ankle Arthroplasty (TAA).

BACKGROUND: Total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) is an effective treatment for various ankle pathologies, but some concern remains for the high associated complication and failure rates relative to major joint arthroplasty of the hip and knee. Patient body mass index (BMI) is a modifiable and potentially important preoperative variable when evaluating postoperative complications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of BMI, age and sex on the acute postoperative complication rate after TAA. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed adult patients who underwent TAA between 2006 and 2021 from the NSQIP database. Using overweight patients as the reference BMI group, we utilized log-binomial models to estimate risk ratios on outcomes while adjusting for sex and age to investigate whether there were significant adjusted differences in complication rates among the BMI groups. RESULTS: We found that, relative to overweight patients, there were no statistically significant differences in the risk of acute complications for underweight (BMI < 18.5) (P = .118), healthy weight (18.5≤BMI < 25) (P = .544), obese (30≤BMI < 40) (P = .930), or morbidly obese (BMI < 40) (P = .602) patients who underwent TAA. There were also no statistically significant differences in the risk of acute complications based on age category (P = .482,.824) or sex (P = .440) for TAA. Additionally, there were no significant differences between the BMI groups for either major complications (P = .980) or minor complications (P = .168). CONCLUSION: Ultimately, we found that BMI, age, and sex did not lead to statistically significant differences in the risk of complications within 30 days postoperatively for TAA, even when stratified by major vs minor complications. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

Periodontal Disease Treatment After Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: The PREMIERS Study, a Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with stroke/transient ischemic attack and periodontal disease (PD) are at increased risk for cardiovascular events. PD treatments that can improve stroke risk factors were tested if they might assist patients with cerebrovascular disease. METHODS: In this multicenter phase II trial, patients with stroke/transient ischemic attack and moderately severe PD were randomly assigned to intensive or standard PD treatment arms. The primary outcome measure was a composite of death, myocardial infarction, and recurrent stroke, as well as adverse events. Secondary outcome included changes in stroke risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1209 patients with stroke/transient ischemic attack were screened, of whom 481 met the PD eligibility criteria; 280 patients were randomized to intensive arm (n=140) and standard arm (n=140). In 12-month period, primary outcome occurred in 11 (8%) in the intensive arm and 17 (12%) in the standard arm. The intensive arm was nonsuperior to the standard arm (hazard ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.30-1.38]) with similar rates of adverse events (sepsis 2.1% versus 0.7%; dental bleeding 1.4% versus 0%; and infective endocarditis 0.7% versus 0%). Secondary-outcome improvements were noted in both arms with diastolic blood pressure and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with recent stroke/transient ischemic attack and PD, intensive PD treatment was not superior to standard PD treatment in prevention of stroke/myocardial infarction/death. Fewer events were noted in the intensive arm and the 2 arms were comparable in the safety outcomes. Secondary-outcome measures showed a trend toward improvement, with significant changes noted in diastolic blood pressure and high-density lipoprotein in both the treatment arms.

Real-world clinical outcomes among US Veterans with oral factor xa inhibitor-related major bleeding treated with andexanet alfa or 4-factor prothrombin complex concentrate.

Oral factor Xa (FXa) inhibitors significantly reduce incidence of stroke and thromboembolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation or venous thromboembolism. Due to various factors and the lack of a randomized controlled trial comparing andexanet alfa to usual care, non-specific replacement agents including 4 F-PCC are still used off-label for FXa inhibitor bleed management. Clinical and mortality data were extracted from the inpatient medical data and Veteran Affairs (VA) vital status files over the time of March 2014 through December 2020. Propensity score-weighted models were used for this retrospective cohort study using data from the Veterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). The study included 255 patients (85-andexanet alfa and 170-4 F-PCC) exposed to an oral factor Xa inhibitor and hospitalized with an acute major, gastrointestinal (GI), intracranial (ICH) or other bleed. In-hospital mortality was significantly lower in the andexanet alfa cohort compared to the 4 F-PCC cohort (10.6% vs. 25.3%, p = 0.01). Propensity score-weighted Cox models reveal a 69% lower hazard of in-hospital mortality for those treated with andexanet alfa (HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.14-0.71) compared to those treated with 4 F-PCC. Additionally, those treated with andexanet alfa had a lower 30-day mortality rate and lower 30-day hazard of mortality in the weighted Cox model (20.0% vs. 32.4%, p = 0.039; HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.30-0.98) compared to those treated with 4 F-PCC. Among 255 US veterans with major bleeding in the presence of an oral factor Xa inhibitor, treatment with andexanet alfa was associated with lower in-hospital and 30-day mortality than treatment with 4 F-PCC.

Leukotriene receptor antagonism with montelukast as a possible therapeutic for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Arachidonic acid (AA), which is metabolized via the cyclooxygenase (COX) and the lipoxygenase (LOX) pathways, was found to be associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Metabolites of the LOX pathway include cysteinyl (Cys) Leukotrienes (LT), potent proinflammatory mediators, which have also been implicated in cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine if cysteinyl leukotriene receptor blockade by montelukast, lowers the risk of VTE. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study examining VTE risk among COPD patients from the United States Department of Veterans Affairs. We use propensity score matching and Cox survival models to estimate the hazard ratio comparing montelukast exposure to non-exposure. Montelukast exposure was associated with a 15.9% reduction in risk of VTE compared to those unexposed (HR= 0.841; 95% CI= (0.758-0.934)). CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrate that targeting LTs might be beneficial for VTE prophylaxis using the clinically available LT inhibitor, montelukast. Importantly, further research on LTs is warranted to fully understand and validate this relationship.

Melatonin use and the risk of 30-day mortality among US veterans with sepsis: A retrospective study.

Prior research suggests melatonin has beneficial effects that could improve survival among sepsis patients. This exploratory analysis sought to compare 30-day survival among melatonin treated and untreated patients with sepsis. A retrospective cohort study was conducted among patients with a primary inpatient admission diagnosis for sepsis utilizing the International Classification of Diseases, versions 9 and 10, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM) diagnosis codes between 2000 and 2021. Propensity score weighting was utilized, accounting for demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors. Weighted Cox models were estimated for 30-day in-hospital and 30-day overall survival. A total of 9386 patients were included in the study with 593 exposed to melatonin within the first day of hospitalization. Propensity score weighted Cox models reveal melatonin was associated with a 37.9% decreased risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality (HR = 0.621; 95% CI = [0.415-0.931]) and a 33.5% decreased risk of 30-day overall mortality (HR = 0.665; 95% CI = [0.493-0.897]). Factors associated with higher risk of both in-hospital and overall mortality include male sex, white race, age, higher Charlson comorbidity burden, sodium and potassium levels, intensive care unit stay, invasive ventilation, and vasopressor use. Higher serum albumin levels are associated with lower mortality risks. Among patients diagnosed with sepsis, exposure to melatonin was associated with a lower in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Additional research is warranted to fully understand the role of melatonin in sepsis.

Effect of initial treatment on health-related quality of life in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma without immediate stem cell transplant intent: results from the Connect® MM Registry.

Although new multiple myeloma (MM) therapies are effective in alleviating some disease-associated symptoms (e.g. bone pain, fatigue, functional decline), they can result in additional toxicities, further impacting health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Here, we compared HRQoL and safety of lenalidomide-bortezomib-dexamethasone [RVd (n = 445)], bortezomib-melphalan-prednisone [VMP (n = 77)] and Vd or VMP (n = 588) in patients with newly diagnosed MM (NDMM) from the Connect® MM Registry, a large, USA, multicentre, prospective observational cohort study. Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Multiple Myeloma subscale, EuroQol-5D overall score and Bone Pain Inventory HRQoL scores were significantly improved with RVd versus Vd/VMP. Serious adverse event rates were similar in all groups. Treatment with RVd maintained HRQoL in this real-world, largely community-based population of patients with NDMM.

Leukotriene inhibition and the risk of lung cancer among U.S. veterans with asthma.

Leukotriene inhibition, in vitro and in vivo, is found to suppress tumor growth across a variety of cancer cells. A mouse model of lung cancer revealed that the leukotriene inhibitor montelukast induced lung cancer cell death. Based on the preclinical data we hypothesize that exposure to a leukotriene inhibitor is associated with a lower risk of lung cancer. We conducted a national retrospective cohort study among U.S. Veterans with asthma to explore the relationship between leukotriene inhibition and incident lung cancer. We utilize a variety of statistical techniques, including cox proportional hazards models, propensity score matching and falsification testing to examine the association. A total of 558,466 patients met study criteria consisting of 23,730 patients with leukotriene exposure and 534,736 patients with no leukotriene medication use. Leukotriene inhibitor exposure reduced the risk of lung cancer by 17% (HR = 0.830; 95% CI = (0.757-0.911)) in the unmatched and 22.2% in the matched analysis (HR = 0.778 95% CI = (0.688-0.88)). Falsification testing with appendicitis and rotator cuff injury end points, suggest no evidence of selection bias. However, because treatment was not randomized, residual confounding cannot be ruled out. The pre-clinical data on leukotriene inhibition and lung cancer combined with our database analysis provide intriguing evidence warranting further research into the relationship between leukotrienes and lung cancer.

Predicting Infection in Very Preterm Infants: A Study Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal sepsis causes morbidity and mortality in preterm infants. Clinicians need a predictive tool for the onset of neonatal infection to expedite treatment and prevent morbidity. Abnormal thermal gradients, a central-peripheral temperature difference (CPtd) of >2°C or <0°C, and elevated heart rate characteristic (HRC) scores are associated with infection. OBJECTIVE: This article presents the protocol for the Predictive Analysis Using Temperature and Heart Rate Study. METHODS: This observational trial will enroll 440 very preterm infants to measure abdominal temperature and foot temperature every minute and HRC scores hourly for 28 days to compare infection data. Time with abnormal thermal gradients (Model 1) and elevated HRC scores (Model 2) will be compared to the onset of infections. For data analysis, CPtd (abdominal temperature - foot temperature) will be investigated as two derived variables, high CPtd (number/percentage of minutes with CPtd of >2°C) and low CPtd (number/percentage of minutes with CPtd of <0°C). In the infant-level model, the outcome yi will be an indicator of whether the infant was diagnosed with an infection in the first 28 days of life, and the high CPtd and low CPtd variables will be the average over the entire observation period, logit(yi) = ß0 + xiß1 + ziγ. For the day-level model, the outcome yit will be an indicator of whether the ith infant was diagnosed with an infection on the tth day from t = 4 through t = 28 or the day that infection is diagnosed (25 possible repeated measures), logit(yit) = ß0 + xitß1 + zitγ. It will be determined whether a model with only high CPtd or only low CPtd is superior in predicting infection. Also, the correlation of abnormal HRC scores with high CPtd and low CPtd values will be assessed. DISCUSSION: Study results will inform the design of an interventional study using temperatures and/or heart rate as a predictive tool to alert clinicians of cardiac and autonomic instability present with infection.

Statin Exposure and Risk of Prosthetic Joint Infection After Total Knee or Hip Arthroplasty Among U.S. Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Statins have a variety of pleiotropic effects that could be beneficial for patients undertaking total knee or hip arthroplasty. In vitro and in vivo models suggest the beneficial effects of statins through bone formation and modulating proinflammatory cytokines triggered by implant debris. However, statins also exhibit antimicrobial action and may reduce the risk of revision surgery via reducing the risk of infection. We sought to explore the relationship between statin use and prosthetic joint infection (PJI) after total knee or hip arthroplasty. METHODS: We use a retrospective cohort of patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty performed within the Department of Veterans Affairs. To minimize selection bias between the statin exposed and unexposed patients, we used 1:1 ratio propensity score matching. We fit adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to quantify the risk of PJI between the cohorts within 1 year, 3 years, and all follow-up time. RESULTS: With a study period beginning from January 2000, a total of 60,241 patients were included. The unmatched Cox models reveal, over the entire follow-up time, a statistically significant lower risk of infection for the statin exposed patients (hazard ratio = 0.869; 95% confidence interval = [0.79-0.956]). The matched Cox model results reveal a statistically significant lower risk of PJI, only in the overall model, for the statin exposed cohort compared with the unexposed cohort (hazard ratio = 0.895, 95% confidence interval = [0.807-0.993]). CONCLUSION: Our analysis finds some support for the beneficial effects of statins for preventing PJI among patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty.

Association between race and treatment patterns and survival outcomes in multiple myeloma: A Connect MM Registry analysis.

BACKGROUND: Studies have reported racial disparities in access to and use of multiple myeloma (MM) treatments between African American (AA) and White patients. Although AA patients demonstrate longer disease-specific survival, this has not uniformly translated into improved survival over time. The association between race and treatment patterns and survival outcomes was analyzed using data from the Connect MM Registry. METHODS: The Connect MM Registry is a large US, multicenter, prospective observational cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed MM. Patients who received first-line (1L) stem cell transplantation (SCT) or who did not receive SCT (non-SCT or non-stem cell transplantation [NSCT]) were grouped by raceEffects of race and transplantation status on the use of triplet treatment were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Treatment patterns in 1L (types and duration of induction, posttransplantation maintenance) were similar between AA and White patients. SCT rates in 1L (32% vs 36%) and triplet treatment use (AA: 44% for NSCT patients and 72% for SCT patients; and White: 48% for NSCT patients and 72% for SCT patients) during first induction were similar. No significant effect of race or transplantation status on 1L triplet treatment use was observed. Race was not found to be associated with survival outcomes among patients who underwent NSCT; however, AA patients who received SCT had significantly longer overall survival compared with White patients who underwent SCT (not reached vs 88.2 months; hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.35-0.89 [P = .0141]). CONCLUSIONS: AA and White patients were found to have similar treatment patterns in the Connect MM Registry, suggesting that both groups had equal access to health care. In this real-world setting, AA patients received standard-of-care treatment, which might have contributed to better MM-specific survival compared with White patients.

Ischemia considerations for the development of an organ and tissue donor derived bone marrow bank.

BACKGROUND: Deceased organ donors represent an untapped source of therapeutic bone marrow (BM) that can be recovered in 3-5 times the volume of that obtained from living donors, tested for quality, cryopreserved, and banked indefinitely for future on-demand use. A challenge for a future BM banking system will be to manage the prolonged ischemia times that are inevitable when bones procured at geographically-dispersed locations are shipped to distant facilities for processing. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify, under realistic field conditions, the relationship between ischemia time and the quality of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) derived from deceased-donor BM; (b) identify ischemia-time boundaries beyond which HSPC quality is adversely affected; (c) investigate whole-body cooling as a strategy for preserving cell quality; and (d) investigate processing experience as a variable affecting quality. METHODS: Seventy-five bones from 62 donors were analyzed for CD34+ viability following their exposure to various periods of warm-ischemia time (WIT), cold-ischemia time (CIT), and body-cooling time (BCT). Regression models were developed to quantify the independent associations of WIT, CIT, and BCT, with the viability and function of recovered HSPCs. RESULTS: Results demonstrate that under "real-world" scenarios: (a) combinations of warm- and cold-ischemia times favorable to the recovery of high-quality HSPCs are achievable (e.g., CD34+ cell viabilities in the range of 80-90% were commonly observed); (b) body cooling prior to bone recovery is detrimental to cell viability (e.g., CD34+ viability < 73% with, vs. > 89% without body cooling); (c) vertebral bodies (VBs) are a superior source of HSPCs compared to ilia (IL) (e.g., %CD34+ viability > 80% when VBs were the source, vs. < 74% when IL were the source); and (d) processing experience is a critical variable affecting quality. CONCLUSIONS: Our models can be used by an emerging BM banking system to formulate ischemia-time tolerance limits and data-driven HSPC quality-acceptance standards.

Freestanding Dialysis Facility Quality Incentive Program Scores and Mortality Among Incident Dialysis Patients in the United States.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services introduced the Quality Incentive Program (QIP) along with the bundled payment reform to improve the quality of dialysis care in the United States. The QIP has been criticized for using easily obtained laboratory indicators without patient-centered measures and for a lack of evidence for an association between QIP indicators and patient outcomes. This study examined the association between dialysis facility QIP performance scores and survival among patients after initiation of dialysis. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Study participants included 84,493 patients represented in the US Renal Disease System's patient-level data who had initiated dialysis between January 1, 2013, and December 1, 2013, and who did not, during the first 90 days after dialysis initiation, die, receive a transplant, or become lost to follow-up. Patients were followed up for the study outcome through March 31, 2014. PREDICTOR: Dialysis facility QIP scores. OUTCOME: Mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Using a unique facility identifier, we linked Medicare freestanding dialysis facility data from 2015 with US Renal Disease System patient-level data. Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator was used to describe the survival of study participants. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the multivariable association between facility performance scores and patient survival. RESULTS: Excluding patients who died during the first 90 days of dialysis, 11.8% of patients died during an average follow-up of 5 months. Facilities with QIP scores<45 (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.15-1.68) and 45 to<60 (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.33) had higher patient mortality rates than facilities with scores≥90. LIMITATIONS: Because the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services have revised QIP criteria each year, the findings may not relate to years other than those studied. CONCLUSIONS: Dialysis facilities characterized by lower QIP scores were associated with higher rates of patient mortality. These findings need to be replicated to assess their consistency over time.

Does Emergency Medical Services Transportation Mitigate Post-stroke Discharge Disability? A Prospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether emergency medical services (EMS) transport improves disability outcomes compared with other transport among acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To study severity-adjusted associations of hospital arrival mode (EMS vs. other transport) with in-hospital and discharge disability outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. PARTICIPANTS: AIS patients discharged April 2016 to October 2017 from a safety-net hospital in South Carolina. MAIN MEASURES: National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) change at discharge (admission NIHSS score minus discharge NIHSS, continuous variable), 24-h NIHSS change (attaining high improvement, admission NIHSS minus 24-h NIHSS being 75th percentile or higher), door to neuroimaging (DTI) time, and IV alteplase receipt. NIHSS change was assessed within stroke severity groups, mild, moderate, and severe (admission NIHSS 0-5, 6-14, and ≥ 15, respectively). KEY RESULTS: Of 1168 patients, 838 were study-eligible (52% male, 52.4% Black, 72.2% EMS arrivals, 56.6% mild strokes). Severe and moderate stroke patients were more likely than mild stroke patients to use EMS (adjusted odds ratios, AOR [95% CI] 11.7 [5.0, 27.4] and 4.0 [2.6, 6.3], respectively). EMS arrival was associated with shorter DTI time (adjusted difference - 88.4 min) and higher likelihood of alteplase administration (AOR 5.3 [2.5, 11.4]), both key mediating variables in disability outcomes. High 24-h NIHSS improvement was more likely for EMS arrivals vs. other arrivals among moderate strokes (AOR 3.4 [1.1, 10.9]) and severe strokes (AOR > 999). EMS arrivals had substantially higher NIHSS improvement at discharge within the severe stroke group (adjusted NIHSS change at discharge, 5.9 points higher, p = 0.01). Alteplase recipients showed higher discharge NIHSS improvement than non-recipients (by 2.8 and 1.9 points among severe and moderate strokes, respectively; p = 0.01, 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The findings offer evidence for including stroke education as a standard of care in the primary care management of patients with stroke-risk comorbidities/lifestyle in order to minimize post-stroke disability.

Development of a prognostic model for overall survival in multiple myeloma using the Connect® MM Patient Registry.

Median overall survival (OS) has improved for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM), but prognosis varies depending on baseline patient characteristics. Current models use data from selected clinical trial populations, which prevent application to patients in an unselected community setting that reflects routine clinical practice. Using data from the Connect® MM Registry, a large, US, multicentre, prospective observational cohort study (Cohort 1: 2009-2011; Cohort 2: 2012-2016) of 3011 patients with NDMM, we identified prognostic variables for OS via the multivariable analysis of baseline patient characteristics in Cohort 1 (n = 1493) and developed a tool to examine individual outcomes. Factors associated with OS (n = 1450 treated patients; P < 0·05) were age, del(17p), triplet therapy use, EQ-5D mobility, International Staging System stage, solitary plasmacytoma, history of diabetes, platelet count, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and serum creatinine, which were used to create survival matrices for 3- and 5-year OS. The model was internally and externally validated using Connect MM Cohort 2 (Harrell's concordance index, 0·698), MM-015 (0·649), and the phase 3 FIRST (0·647) clinical trials. This novel prognostic tool may help inform outcomes for NDMM in the era of triplet therapy use with novel agents.

A varying-coefficient generalized odds rate model with time-varying exposure: An application to fitness and cardiovascular disease mortality.

Varying-coefficient models have become a common tool to determine whether and how the association between an exposure and an outcome changes over a continuous measure. These models are complicated when the exposure itself is time-varying and subjected to measurement error. For example, it is well known that longitudinal physical fitness has an impact on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. It is not known, however, how the effect of longitudinal physical fitness on CVD mortality varies with age. In this paper, we propose a varying-coefficient generalized odds rate model that allows flexible estimation of age-modified effects of longitudinal physical fitness on CVD mortality. In our model, the longitudinal physical fitness is measured with error and modeled using a mixed-effects model, and its associated age-varying coefficient function is represented by cubic B-splines. An expectation-maximization algorithm is developed to estimate the parameters in the joint models of longitudinal physical fitness and CVD mortality. A modified pseudoadaptive Gaussian-Hermite quadrature method is adopted to compute the integrals with respect to random effects involved in the E-step. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through extensive simulation studies and is further illustrated with an application to cohort data from the Aerobic Center Longitudinal Study.

Disentangling the roles of point-of-sale ban, tobacco retailer density and proximity on cessation and relapse among a cohort of smokers: findings from ITC Canada Survey.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how point-of-sale (POS) display bans, tobacco retailer density and tobacco retailer proximity were associated with smoking cessation and relapse in a cohort of smokers in Canada, where provincial POS bans were implemented differentially over time from 2004 to 2010. METHODS: Data from the 2005 to 2011 administrations of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Canada Survey, a nationally representative cohort of adult smokers, were linked via residential geocoding with tobacco retailer data to derive for each smoker a measure of retailer density and proximity. An indicator variable identified whether the smoker's province banned POS displays at the time of the interview. Outcomes included cessation for at least 1 month at follow-up among smokers from the previous wave and relapse at follow-up among smokers who had quit at the previous wave. Logistic generalised estimating equation models were used to determine the relationship between living in a province with a POS display ban, tobacco retailer density and tobacco retailer proximity with cessation (n=4388) and relapse (n=866). RESULTS: Provincial POS display bans were not associated with cessation. In adjusted models, POS display bans were associated with lower odds of relapse which strengthened after adjusting for retailer density and proximity, although results were not statistically significant (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.07, p=0.089). Neither tobacco retailer density nor proximity was associated with cessation or relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Banning POS retail displays shows promise as an additional tool to prevent relapse, although these results need to be confirmed in larger longitudinal studies.