The effects of cytomegalovirus on brain structure following sport-related concussion.

The neurotrophic herpes virus cytomegalovirus is a known cause of neuropathology in utero and in immunocompromised populations. Cytomegalovirus is reactivated by stress and inflammation, possibly explaining the emerging evidence linking it to subtle brain changes in the context of more minor disturbances of immune function. Even mild forms of traumatic brain injury, including sport-related concussion, are major physiological stressors that produce neuroinflammation. In theory, concussion could predispose to the reactivation of cytomegalovirus and amplify the effects of physical injury on brain structure. However, to our knowledge this hypothesis remains untested. This study evaluated the effect of cytomegalovirus serostatus on white and grey matter structure in a prospective study of athletes with concussion and matched contact-sport controls. Athletes who sustained concussion (n = 88) completed MRI at 1, 8, 15 and 45 days post-injury; matched uninjured athletes (n = 73) completed similar visits. Cytomegalovirus serostatus was determined by measuring serum IgG antibodies (n = 30 concussed athletes and n = 21 controls were seropositive). Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for confounding factors between athletes with and without cytomegalovirus. White matter microstructure was assessed using diffusion kurtosis imaging metrics in regions previously shown to be sensitive to concussion. T1-weighted images were used to quantify mean cortical thickness and total surface area. Concussion-related symptoms, psychological distress, and serum concentration of C-reactive protein at 1 day post-injury were included as exploratory outcomes. Planned contrasts compared the effects of cytomegalovirus seropositivity in athletes with concussion and controls, separately. There was a significant effect of cytomegalovirus on axial and radial kurtosis in athletes with concussion but not controls. Cytomegalovirus positive athletes with concussion showed greater axial (P = 0.007, d = 0.44) and radial (P = 0.010, d = 0.41) kurtosis than cytomegalovirus negative athletes with concussion. Similarly, there was a significant association of cytomegalovirus with cortical thickness in athletes with concussion but not controls. Cytomegalovirus positive athletes with concussion had reduced mean cortical thickness of the right hemisphere (P = 0.009, d = 0.42) compared with cytomegalovirus negative athletes with concussion and showed a similar trend for the left hemisphere (P = 0.036, d = 0.33). There was no significant effect of cytomegalovirus on kurtosis fractional anisotropy, surface area, symptoms and C-reactive protein. The results raise the possibility that cytomegalovirus infection contributes to structural brain abnormalities in the aftermath of concussion perhaps via an amplification of concussion-associated neuroinflammation. More work is needed to identify the biological pathways underlying this process and to clarify the clinical relevance of this putative viral effect.

Research Letter: Relationship of Blood Biomarkers of Inflammation With Acute Concussion Symptoms and Recovery in the CARE Consortium.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the association of inflammatory biomarkers with clinical measures and recovery in participants with concussion. SETTING: Multicenter study in National Collegiate Athletic Association member institutions including military service academies. PARTICIPANTS: Four hundred twenty-two participants with acute concussion. DESIGN: Clinical visits and blood draws were completed preinjury and at multiple visits postconcussion (0-12 hours, 12-36 hours, and 36-60 hours postinjury). Clinical measures included Sport Concussion Assessment Tool (SCAT) symptom severity, Balance Error Scoring System, Standardized Assessment of Concussion (SAC), Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI-18) scores, time to initiation of graduated return-to-play (RTP) protocol, and time to RTP. Interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, IL-8, IL-1 receptor antagonist (RA), tumor necrosis factor (TNF), c-reactive protein, and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) were measured in serum. Prespecified analyses focused on IL-6 and IL-1RA at 0 to 12 hours; exploratory analyses were conducted with false discovery rate correction. RESULTS: For prespecified analyses, IL-1RA at 0 to 12 hours in female participants was positively associated with more errors on the SAC (B(standard error, SE) = 0.58(0.27), P < .05) and worse SCAT symptom severity (B(SE) = 0.96(0.44), P < .05). For exploratory analyses, higher levels of IL-1RA at 12 to 36 hours were associated with higher global (B(SE) = 0.55(0.14), q < 0.01), depression (B(SE) = 0.45(0.10), q < 0.005), and somatization scores on the BSI (B(SE) = 0.46(0.12), q < 0.01) in participants with concussion; Higher TNF at 12 to 36 hours was associated with fewer errors on the SAC (B(SE) = - 0.46(0.14), q < 0.05). Subanalyses showed similar results for male participants and participants who were athletes. No associations were discovered in nonathlete cadets. Higher IL-8 at 0 to 12 hours was associated with slower RTP in female participants (OR = 14.47; 95% confidence interval, 2.96-70.66, q < 0.05); no other associations with recovery were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Peripheral inflammatory markers are associated with clinical symptoms following concussion and potentially represent one mechanism for psychological symptoms observed postinjury. Current results do not provide strong support for a potential prognostic role for these markers.

Are Gait Patterns during In-Lab Running Representative of Gait Patterns during Real-World Training? An Experimental Study.

Biomechanical assessments of running typically take place inside motion capture laboratories. However, it is unclear whether data from these in-lab gait assessments are representative of gait during real-world running. This study sought to test how well real-world gait patterns are represented by in-lab gait data in two cohorts of runners equipped with consumer-grade wearable sensors measuring speed, step length, vertical oscillation, stance time, and leg stiffness. Cohort 1 (N = 49) completed an in-lab treadmill run plus five real-world runs of self-selected distances on self-selected courses. Cohort 2 (N = 19) completed a 2.4 km outdoor run on a known course plus five real-world runs of self-selected distances on self-selected courses. The degree to which in-lab gait reflected real-world gait was quantified using univariate overlap and multivariate depth overlap statistics, both for all real-world running and for real-world running on flat, straight segments only. When comparing in-lab and real-world data from the same subject, univariate overlap ranged from 65.7% (leg stiffness) to 95.2% (speed). When considering all gait metrics together, only 32.5% of real-world data were well-represented by in-lab data from the same subject. Pooling in-lab gait data across multiple subjects led to greater distributional overlap between in-lab and real-world data (depth overlap 89.3-90.3%) due to the broader variability in gait seen across (as opposed to within) subjects. Stratifying real-world running to only include flat, straight segments did not meaningfully increase the overlap between in-lab and real-world running (changes of <1%). Individual gait patterns during real-world running, as characterized by consumer-grade wearable sensors, are not well-represented by the same runner's in-lab data. Researchers and clinicians should consider "borrowing" information from a pool of many runners to predict individual gait behavior when using biomechanical data to make clinical or sports performance decisions.

Adaptive empirical pattern transformation (ADEPT) with application to walking stride segmentation.

Quantifying gait parameters and ambulatory monitoring of changes in these parameters have become increasingly important in epidemiological and clinical studies. Using high-density accelerometry measurements, we propose adaptive empirical pattern transformation (ADEPT), a fast, scalable, and accurate method for segmentation of individual walking strides. ADEPT computes the covariance between a scaled and translated pattern function and the data, an idea similar to the continuous wavelet transform. The difference is that ADEPT uses a data-based pattern function, allows multiple pattern functions, can use other distances instead of the covariance, and the pattern function is not required to satisfy the wavelet admissibility condition. Compared to many existing approaches, ADEPT is designed to work with data collected at various body locations and is invariant to the direction of accelerometer axes relative to body orientation. The method is applied to and validated on accelerometry data collected during a $450$-m outdoor walk of $32$ study participants wearing accelerometers on the wrist, hip, and both ankles. Additionally, all scripts and data needed to reproduce presented results are included in supplementary material available at Biostatistics online.

Tau-related white-matter alterations along spatially selective pathways.

Progressive accumulation of tau neurofibrillary tangles in the brain is a defining pathologic feature of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Tau pathology exhibits a predictable spatiotemporal spreading pattern, but the underlying mechanisms of this spread are poorly understood. Although AD is conventionally considered a disease of the gray matter, it is also associated with pronounced and progressive deterioration of the white matter (WM). A link between abnormal tau and WM degeneration is suggested by findings from both animal and postmortem studies, but few studies demonstrated their interplay in vivo. Recent advances in diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and the availability of tau positron emission tomography (PET) have made it possible to evaluate the association of tau and WM degeneration (tau-WM) in vivo. In this study, we explored the spatial pattern of tau-WM associations across the whole brain to evaluate the hypothesis that tau deposition is associated with WM microstructural alterations not only in isolated tracts, but in continuous structural connections in a stereotypic pattern. Sixty-two participants, including 22 cognitively normal subjects, 22 individuals with subjective cognitive decline, and 18 with mild cognitive impairment were included in the study. WM characteristics were inferred by classic diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and a complementary diffusion compartment model - neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) that provides a proxy for axonal density. A data-driven iterative searching (DDIS) approach, coupled with whole-brain graph theory analyses, was developed to continuously track tau-WM association patterns. Without applying prior knowledge of the tau spread, we observed a distinct spatial pattern that resembled the typical propagation of tau pathology in AD. Such association pattern was not observed between diffusion and amyloid-ß PET signal. Tau-related WM degeneration is characterized by an increase in the mean diffusivity (with a dominant change in the radial direction) and a decrease in the intra-axonal volume fraction. These findings suggest that cortical tau deposition (as measured in tau PET) is associated with a lower axonal packing density and greater diffusion freedom. In conclusion, our in vivo findings using a data-driven method on cross-sectional data underline the important role of WM alterations in the AD pathological cascade with an association pattern similar to the postmortem Braak staging of AD. Future studies will focus on longitudinal analyses to provide in vivo evidence of tau pathology spreads along neuroanatomically connected brain areas.

Prospective study of the association between sport-related concussion and brain morphometry (3T-MRI) in collegiate athletes: study from the NCAA-DoD CARE Consortium.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the acute and early long-term associations of sport-related concussion (SRC) and subcortical and cortical structures in collegiate contact sport athletes. METHODS: Athletes with a recent SRC (n=99) and matched contact (n=91) and non-contact sport controls (n=95) completed up to four neuroimaging sessions from 24 to 48 hours to 6 months postinjury. Subcortical volumes (amygdala, hippocampus, thalamus and dorsal striatum) and vertex-wise measurements of cortical thickness/volume were computed using FreeSurfer. Linear mixed-effects models examined the acute and longitudinal associations between concussion and structural metrics, controlling for intracranial volume (or mean thickness) and demographic variables (including prior concussions and sport exposure). RESULTS: There were significant group-dependent changes in amygdala volumes across visits (p=0.041); this effect was driven by a trend for increased amygdala volume at 6 months relative to subacute visits in contact controls, with no differences in athletes with SRC. No differences were observed in any cortical metric (ie, thickness or volume) for primary or secondary analyses. CONCLUSION: A single SRC had minimal associations with grey matter structure across a 6-month time frame.

Profiles of Accelerometry-Derived Physical Activity Are Related to Perceived Physical Fatigability in Older Adults.

Physical activity (PA) is associated with greater fatigability in older adults; little is known about magnitude, shape, timing and variability of the entire 24-h rest-activity rhythm (RAR) associated with fatigability. We identified which features of the 24-h RAR pattern were independently and jointly associated with greater perceived physical fatigability (Pittsburgh Fatigability Scale, PFS, 0-50) in older adults (n = 181, 71.3 ± 6.7 years). RARs were characterized using anti-logistic extended cosine models and 4-h intervals of PA means and standard deviations across days. A K-means clustering algorithm approach identified four profiles of RAR features: "Less Active/Robust", "Earlier Risers", "More Active/Robust" and "Later RAR". Quantile regression tested associations of each RAR feature/profile on median PFS adjusted for age, sex, race, body mass index and depression symptomatology. Later rise times (up mesor; ß = 1.38, p = 0.01) and timing of midpoint of activity (acrophase; ß = 1.29, p = 0.01) were associated with higher PFS scores. Lower PA between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m. was associated with higher PFS scores (ß = -4.50, p = 0.03). "Less Active/Robust" (ß = 6.14, p = 0.01) and "Later RAR" (ß = 3.53, p = 0.01) patterns were associated with higher PFS scores compared to "Earlier Risers". Greater physical fatigability in older adults was associated with dampened, more variable, and later RARs. This work can guide development of interventions aimed at modifying RARs to reduce fatigability in older adults.

Connectivity-informed adaptive regularization for generalized outcomes.

One of the challenging problems in neuroimaging is the principled incorporation of information from different imaging modalities. Data from each modality are frequently analyzed separately using, for instance, dimensionality reduction techniques, which result in a loss of mutual information. We propose a novel regularization method, generalized ridgified Partially Empirical Eigenvectors for Regression (griPEER), to estimate associations between the brain structure features and a scalar outcome within the generalized linear regression framework. griPEER improves the regression coefficient estimation by providing a principled approach to use external information from the structural brain connectivity. Specifically, we incorporate a penalty term, derived from the structural connectivity Laplacian matrix, in the penalized generalized linear regression. In this work, we address both theoretical and computational issues and demonstrate the robustness of our method despite incomplete information about the structural brain connectivity. In addition, we also provide a significance testing procedure for performing inference on the estimated coefficients. Finally, griPEER is evaluated both in extensive simulation studies and using clinical data to classify HIV+ and HIV- individuals.

L'un des défis en imagerie cérébrale consiste à établir les principes pour incorporer de l'information provenant de différentes modalités d'imagerie. Les données de chaque modalité sont fréquemment analysées séparément, exploitant par exemple des techniques de réduction de la dimension, ce qui conduit à une perte d'information mutuelle. Les auteurs proposent une nouvelle méthode de régularisation, griPEER (ou par vecteurs propres ridgifiés partiellement empiriques généralisés pour la régression) afin d'estimer l'association entre des caratéristiques de structures du cerveau et une variable réponse scalaire dans le cadre d'une régression linéaire généralisée. Les griPEER améliorent l'estimation des coefficients de régression en établissant les principes d'une approche permettant d'utiliser des informations externes de connectivité des structures du cerveau. À cet effet, les auteurs ajoutent au modèle de régression pénalisée généralisé un terme de pénalité dérivé de la matrice laplacienne de connectivité structurelle. Les auteurs résolvent des problèmes théoriques et calculatoires, puis démontrent la robustesse de leur méthode lorsque l'information à propos de la connectivité du cerveau est incomplète. De plus, ils présentent une procédure de test d'hypothèse permettant de l'inférence au sujet des paramètres estimés. Finalement, les auteurs évaluent les griPEER dans de vastes études de simulation et en utilisant des données cliniques afin de classifier les individus en VIH+ et VIH−.

The disengaging brain: Dynamic transitions from cognitive engagement and alcoholism risk.

Human functional brain connectivity is usually measured either at "rest" or during cognitive tasks, ignoring life's moments of mental transition. We propose a different approach to understanding brain network transitions. We applied a novel independent component analysis of functional connectivity during motor inhibition (stop signal task) and during the continuous transition to an immediately ensuing rest. A functional network reconfiguration process emerged that: (i) was most prominent in those without familial alcoholism risk, (ii) encompassed brain areas engaged by the task, yet (iii) appeared only transiently after task cessation. The pattern was not present in a pre-task rest scan or in the remaining minutes of post-task rest. Finally, this transient network reconfiguration related to a key behavioral trait of addiction risk: reward delay discounting. These novel findings illustrate how dynamic brain functional reconfiguration during normally unstudied periods of cognitive transition might reflect addiction vulnerability, and potentially other forms of brain dysfunction.

GEFF: Graph embedding for functional fingerprinting.

It has been well established that Functional Connectomes (FCs), as estimated from functional MRI (fMRI) data, have an individual fingerprint that can be used to identify an individual from a population (subject-identification). Although identification rate is high when using resting-state FCs, other tasks show moderate to low values. Furthermore, identification rate is task-dependent, and is low when distinct cognitive states, as captured by different fMRI tasks, are compared. Here we propose an embedding framework, GEFF (Graph Embedding for Functional Fingerprinting), based on group-level decomposition of FCs into eigenvectors. GEFF creates an eigenspace representation of a group of subjects using one or more task FCs (Learning Stage). In the Identification Stage, we compare new instances of FCs from the Learning subjects within this eigenspace (validation dataset). The validation dataset contains FCs either from the same tasks as the Learning dataset or from the remaining tasks that were not included in Learning. Assessment of validation FCs within the eigenspace results in significantly increased subject-identification rates for all fMRI tasks tested and potentially task-independent fingerprinting process. It is noteworthy that combining resting-state with one fMRI task for GEFF Learning Stage covers most of the cognitive space for subject identification. Thus, while designing an experiment, one could choose a task fMRI to ask a specific question and combine it with resting-state fMRI to extract maximum subject differentiability using GEFF. In addition to subject-identification, GEFF was also used for identification of cognitive states, i.e. to identify the task associated to a given FC, regardless of the subject being already in the Learning dataset or not (subject-independent task-identification). In addition, we also show that eigenvectors from the Learning Stage can be characterized as task- and subject-dominant, subject-dominant or neither, using two-way ANOVA of their corresponding loadings, providing a deeper insight into the extent of variance in functional connectivity across individuals and cognitive states.

Classification of human physical activity based on raw accelerometry data via spherical coordinate transformation.

Human health is strongly associated with person's lifestyle and levels of physical activity. Therefore, characterization of daily human activity is an important task. Accelerometers have been used to obtain precise measurements of body acceleration. Wearable accelerometers collect data as a three-dimensional time series with frequencies up to 100 Hz. Using such accelerometry signal, we are able to classify different types of physical activity. In our work, we present a novel procedure for physical activity classification based on the raw accelerometry signal. Our proposal is based on the spherical representation of the data. We classify four activity types: resting, upper body activities (sitting), upper body activities (standing), and lower body activities. The classifier is constructed using decision trees with extracted features consisting of spherical coordinates summary statistics, moving averages of the radius and the angles, radius variance, and spherical variance. The classification accuracy of our method has been tested on data collected on a sample of 47 elderly individuals who performed a series of activities in laboratory settings. The achieved classification accuracy is over 90% when the subject-specific data are used and 84% when the group data are used. Main contributor to the classification accuracy is the angular part of the collected signal, especially spherical variance. To the best of our knowledge, spherical variance has never been previously used in the analysis of the raw accelerometry data. Its major advantage over other angular measures is its invariance to the accelerometer location shifts.

Return to play and risk of repeat concussion in collegiate football players: comparative analysis from the NCAA Concussion Study (1999-2001) and CARE Consortium (2014-2017).

OBJECTIVE: We compared data from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Concussion Study (1999-2001) and the NCAA-Department of Defense Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium (2014-2017) to examine how clinical management, return to play (RTP) and risk of repeat concussion in collegiate football players have changed over the past 15 years. METHODS: We analysed data on reported duration of symptoms, symptom-free waiting period (SFWP), RTP and occurrence of within-season repeat concussion in collegiate football players with diagnosed concussion from the NCAA Study (n=184) and CARE (n=701). RESULTS: CARE athletes had significantly longer symptom duration (CARE median=5.92 days, IQR=3.02-9.98 days; NCAA median=2.00 days, IQR=1.00-4.00 days), SFWP (CARE median=6.00 days, IQR=3.49-9.00 days; NCAA median=0.98 days, IQR=0.00-4.00 days) and RTP (CARE median=12.23 days, IQR=8.04-18.92 days; NCAA median=3.00 days, IQR=1.00-8.00 days) than NCAA Study athletes (all p<0.0001). In CARE, there was only one case of repeat concussion within 10 days of initial injury (3.7% of within-season repeat concussions), whereas 92% of repeat concussions occurred within 10 days in the NCAA Study (p<0.001). The average interval between first and repeat concussion in CARE was 56.41 days, compared with 5.59 days in the NCAA Study (M difference=50.82 days; 95% CI 38.37 to 63.27; p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that concussion in collegiate football is managed more conservatively than 15 years ago. These changes in clinical management appear to have reduced the risk of repetitive concussion during the critical period of cerebral vulnerability after sport-related concussion (SRC). These data support international guidelines recommending additional time for brain recovery before athletes RTP after SRC.

Use of Functional Linear Models to Detect Associations between Characteristics of Walking and Continuous Responses Using Accelerometry Data.

Various methods exist to measure physical activity. Subjective methods, such as diaries and surveys, are relatively inexpensive ways of measuring one's physical activity; however, they are prone to measurement error and bias due to self-reporting. Wearable accelerometers offer a non-invasive and objective measure of one's physical activity and are now widely used in observational studies. Accelerometers record high frequency data and each produce an unlabeled time series at the sub-second level. An important activity to identify from the data collected is walking, since it is often the only form of activity for certain populations. Currently, most methods use an activity summary which ignores the nuances of walking data. We propose methodology to model specific continuous responses with a functional linear model utilizing spectra obtained from the local fast Fourier transform (FFT) of walking as a predictor. Utilizing prior knowledge of the mechanics of walking, we incorporate this as additional information for the structure of our transformed walking spectra. The methods were applied to the in-the-laboratory data obtained from the Developmental Epidemiologic Cohort Study (DECOS).

Progressive brain atrophy in chronically infected and treated HIV+ individuals.

Growing evidence points to persistent neurological injury in chronic HIV infection. It remains unclear whether chronically HIV-infected individuals on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) develop progressive brain injury and impaired neurocognitive function despite successful viral suppression and immunological restoration. In a longitudinal neuroimaging study for the HIV Neuroimaging Consortium (HIVNC), we used tensor-based morphometry to map the annual rate of change of regional brain volumes (mean time interval 1.0 ± 0.5 yrs), in 155 chronically infected and treated HIV+ participants (mean age 48.0 ± 8.9 years; 83.9% male) . We tested for associations between rates of brain tissue loss and clinical measures of infection severity (nadir or baseline CD4+ cell count and baseline HIV plasma RNA concentration), HIV duration, cART CNS penetration-effectiveness scores, age, as well as change in AIDS Dementia Complex stage. We found significant brain tissue loss across HIV+ participants, including those neuro-asymptomatic with undetectable viral loads, largely localized to subcortical regions. Measures of disease severity, age, and neurocognitive decline were associated with greater atrophy. Chronically HIV-infected and treated individuals may undergo progressive brain tissue loss despite stable and effective cART, which may contribute to neurocognitive decline. Understanding neurological complications of chronic infection and identifying factors associated with atrophy may help inform strategies to maintain brain health in people living with HIV.

On Placement, Location and Orientation of Wrist-Worn Tri-Axial Accelerometers during Free-Living Measurements.

Wearable accelerometers have recently become a standalone tool for the objective assessment of physical activity (PA). In free-living studies, accelerometers are placed by protocol on a pre-defined body location (e.g., non-dominant wrist). However, the protocol is not always followed, e.g., the sensor can be moved between wrists or reattached in a different orientation. Such protocol violations often result in PA miscalculation. We propose an approach, PLOE ("Placement, Location and Orientation Evaluation method"), to determine the sensor position using statistical features from the raw accelerometer measurements. We compare the estimated position with the study protocol and identify discrepancies. We apply PLOE to the measurements collected from 45 older adults who wore ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometers on the left and right wrist for seven days. We found that 15.6% of participants who wore accelerometers violated the protocol for one or more days. The sensors were worn on the wrong hand during 6.9% of the days of simultaneous wearing of devices. During the periods of discrepancies, the daily PA was miscalculated by more than 20%. Our findings show that correct placement of the device has a significant effect on the PA estimates. These results demonstrate a need for the evaluation of sensor position.

Distinct Helper T Cell Type 1 and 2 Responses Associated With Malaria Protection and Risk in RTS,S/AS01E Vaccinees.

BACKGROUND: The RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine has moderate efficacy, lower in infants than children. Current efforts to enhance RTS,S/AS01E efficacy would benefit from learning about the vaccine-induced immunity and identifying correlates of malaria protection, which could, for instance, inform the choice of adjuvants. Here, we sought cellular immunity-based correlates of malaria protection and risk associated with RTS,S/AS01E vaccination. METHODS: We performed a matched case-control study nested within the multicenter African RTS,S/AS01E phase 3 trial. Children and infant samples from 57 clinical malaria cases (32 RTS,S/25 comparator vaccinees) and 152 controls without malaria (106 RTS,S/46 comparator vaccinees) were analyzed. We measured 30 markers by Luminex following RTS,S/AS01E antigen stimulation of cells 1 month postimmunization. Crude concentrations and ratios of antigen to background control were analyzed. RESULTS: Interleukin (IL) 2 and IL-5 ratios were associated with RTS,S/AS01E vaccination (adjusted P ≤ .01). IL-5 circumsporozoite protein (CSP) ratios, a helper T cell type 2 cytokine, correlated with higher odds of malaria in RTS,S/AS01E vaccinees (odds ratio, 1.17 per 10% increases of CSP ratios; P value adjusted for multiple testing = .03). In multimarker analysis, the helper T cell type 1 (TH1)-related markers interferon-γ, IL-15, and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor protected from subsequent malaria, in contrast to IL-5 and RANTES, which increased the odds of malaria. CONCLUSIONS: RTS,S/AS01E-induced IL-5 may be a surrogate of lack of protection, whereas TH1-related responses may be involved in protective mechanisms. Efforts to develop second-generation vaccine candidates may concentrate on adjuvants that modulate the immune system to support enhanced TH1 responses and decreased IL-5 responses.

Assessing uncertainty in dynamic functional connectivity.

Functional connectivity (FC) - the study of the statistical association between time series from anatomically distinct regions (Friston, 1994, 2011) - has become one of the primary areas of research in the field surrounding resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI). Although for many years researchers have implicitly assumed that FC was stationary across time in rs-fMRI, it has recently become increasingly clear that this is not the case and the ability to assess dynamic changes in FC is critical for better understanding of the inner workings of the human brain (Hutchison et al., 2013; Chang and Glover, 2010). Currently, the most common strategy for estimating these dynamic changes is to use the sliding-window technique. However, its greatest shortcoming is the inherent variation present in the estimate, even for null data, which is easily confused with true time-varying changes in connectivity (Lindquist et al., 2014). This can have serious consequences as even spurious fluctuations caused by noise can easily be confused with an important signal. For these reasons, assessment of uncertainty in the sliding-window correlation estimates is of critical importance. Here we propose a new approach that combines the multivariate linear process bootstrap (MLPB) method and a sliding-window technique to assess the uncertainty in a dynamic FC estimate by providing its confidence bands. Both numerical results and an application to rs-fMRI study are presented, showing the efficacy of the proposed method.

Autoregressive and cross-lagged model for bivariate non-commensurate outcomes.

Autoregressive and cross-lagged models have been widely used to understand the relationship between bivariate commensurate outcomes in social and behavioral sciences, but not much work has been carried out in modeling bivariate non-commensurate (e.g., mixed binary and continuous) outcomes simultaneously. We develop a likelihood-based methodology combining ordinary autoregressive and cross-lagged models with a shared subject-specific random effect in the mixed-model framework to model two correlated longitudinal non-commensurate outcomes. The estimates of the cross-lagged and the autoregressive effects from our model are shown to be consistent with smaller mean-squared error than the estimates from the univariate generalized linear models. Inclusion of the subject-specific random effects in the proposed model accounts for between-subject variability arising from the omitted and/or unobservable, but possibly explanatory, subject-level predictors. Our model is not restricted to the case with equal number of events per subject, and it can be extended to different types of bivariate outcomes. We apply our model to an ecological momentary assessment study with complex dependence and sampling data structures. Specifically, we study the dependence between the condom use and sexual satisfaction based on the data reported in a longitudinal study of sexually transmitted infections. We find negative cross-lagged effect between these two outcomes and positive autoregressive effect within each outcome. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Responses to Bacteria, Virus, and Malaria Distinguish the Etiology of Pediatric Clinical Pneumonia.

RATIONALE: Plasma-detectable biomarkers that rapidly and accurately diagnose bacterial infections in children with suspected pneumonia could reduce the morbidity of respiratory disease and decrease the unnecessary use of antibiotic therapy. OBJECTIVES: Using 56 markers measured in a multiplexed immunoassay, we sought to identify proteins and protein combinations that could discriminate bacterial from viral or malarial diagnoses. METHODS: We selected 80 patients with clinically diagnosed pneumonia (as defined by the World Health Organization) who also met criteria for bacterial, viral, or malarial infection based on clinical, radiographic, and laboratory results. Ten healthy community control subjects were enrolled to assess marker reliability. Patients were subdivided into two sets: one for identifying potential markers and another for validating them. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Three proteins (haptoglobin, tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 or IL-10, and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1) were identified that, when combined through a classification tree signature, accurately classified patients into bacterial, malarial, and viral etiologies and misclassified only one patient with bacterial pneumonia from the validation set. The overall sensitivity and specificity of this signature for the bacterial diagnosis were 96 and 86%, respectively. Alternative combinations of markers with comparable accuracy were selected by support vector machine and regression models and included haptoglobin, IL-10, and creatine kinase-MB. CONCLUSIONS: Combinations of plasma proteins accurately identified children with a respiratory syndrome who were likely to have bacterial infections and who would benefit from antibiotic therapy. When used in conjunction with malaria diagnostic tests, they may improve diagnostic specificity and simplify treatment decisions for clinicians.