Global Burden of Animal Diseases: a novel approach to understanding and managing disease in livestock and aquaculture.

Investments in animal health and Veterinary Services can have a measurable impact on the health of people and the environment. These investments require a baseline metric that describes the burden of animal health and welfare in order to justify and prioritise resource allocation and from which to measure the impact of interventions. This paper is part of a process of scientific enquiry in which problems are identified and solutions sought in an inclusive way. It poses the broad question: what should a system to measure the animal disease burden on society look like and what value would it add? Moreover, it aims to do this in such a way as to be accessible by a wide audience, who are encouraged to engage in this debate. Given that farmed animals, including those raised by poor smallholders, are an economic entity, this system should be based on economic principles. These poor farmers are negatively impacted by disparities in animal health technology, which can be addressed through a mixture of supply-led and demand-driven interventions, reinforcing the relevance of targeted financial support from government and non-governmental organisations. The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) Programme will glean existing data to measure animal health losses within carefully characterised production systems. Consistent and transparent attribution of animal health losses will enable meaningful comparisons of the animal disease burden to be made between diseases, production systems and countries, and will show how it is apportioned by people's socio-economic status and gender. The GBADs Programme will produce a cloud-based knowledge engine and data portal, through which users will access burden metrics and associated visualisations, support for decisionmaking in the form of future animal health scenarios, and the outputs of wider economic modelling. The vision of GBADs, strengthening the food system for the benefit of society and the environment, is an example of One Health thinking in action.

Les investissements réalisés en santé animale et dans les Services vétérinaires ont un impact mesurable sur la santé des personnes et de l'environnement. Le système de mesure appliqué à ces investissements doit reposer sur un référentiel de base décrivant l'impact de la santé et du bien-être animal de manière à justifier et classer par priorités les ressources allouées et à mesurer les effets des interventions. Les auteurs présentent une étude conduite dans le cadre d'une enquête scientifique destinée à identifier les problèmes et à rechercher des solutions de manière inclusive. L'étude pose la question de savoir à quoi devrait ressembler un système conçu pour mesurer l'impact sur la société des maladies animales, et quelle serait sa valeur ajoutée. En outre, l'étude est conduite de manière à être accessible à une large audience afin d'encourager cette dernière à participer aux discussions. Étant donné que les animaux d'élevage constituent une entité économique, y compris les animaux appartenant à des éleveurs pauvres, le système de mesure doit reposer sur des principes économiques. Les exploitants pratiquant une agriculture de subsistance subissent les effets négatifs des disparités entre les différentes technologies applicables à la santé animale, disparités auxquelles il est possible de remédier par le biais d'interventions associant des mesures dictées par l'offre et par la demande et en renforçant l'efficacité du soutien financier ciblé apporté par les organisations gouvernementales et non gouvernementales. Le Programme « L'impact mondial des maladies animales ¼ (GBADs) aura pour tâche de glaner les données existantes afin de mesurer les pertes associées à la santé animale au sein de systèmes de production qui auront été soigneusement caractérisés au préalable. Grâce à l'élucidation cohérente et transparente des pertes imputables à chaque problème de santé animale, des comparaisons pertinentes pourront être effectuées concernant l'impact des maladies animales par maladies, par systèmes de production et par pays, et la répartition de cet impact dans les populations concernées suivant le statut socio-économique et le genre des intéressés sera mieux comprise. Le Programme GBADs entend créer un moteur de recherche et un portail de données qui seront disponibles sur le Cloud et donneront aux utilisateurs l'accès à des outils de mesure de l'impact des maladies et à d'autres informations présentées sous forme graphique, ainsi qu'à des outils d'aide à la décision sous forme de scénarios prospectifs sur la santé animale et aux résultats d'études plus larges de modélisation économique. La vision du GBADs, renforcer le système de production de denrées alimentaires au profit de la société et de l'environnement, est un exemple de mise en oeuvre du concept Une seule santé.

Las inversiones en sanidad animal y en los Servicios Veterinarios pueden tener un efecto mensurable en la salud de las personas y el medio ambiente. Para efectuar estas inversiones se precisan parámetros que describan y cuantifiquen la situación de partida y el impacto de los problemas de sanidad y bienestar animales, a fin de poder, a partir de ahí, justificar y jerarquizar la asignación de recursos y medir los efectos de las intervenciones. Este artículo, inscrito en un proceso de indagación científica encaminado a detectar problemas y buscar soluciones de forma incluyente, plantea la cuestión general de cómo debería ser y qué valor añadido aportaría un sistema destinado a medir el impacto que imponen a la sociedad las enfermedades animales. Los autores, además, tratan de exponer la cuestión de manera que sea accesible a un público amplio, al que se alienta a participar en este debate. Dado que los animales de granja (incluidos los de pequeñas explotaciones) constituyen una entidad económica, tal sistema debería estar basado en principios económicos. Los productores que trabajan en régimen de subsistencia se ven negativamente afectados por las disparidades existentes en materia de tecnología zoosanitaria, disparidad que cabe corregir con una combinación de intervenciones marcadas por la oferta y otras marcadas por la demanda, dirigiendo así más selectivamente el apoyo económico de entidades gubernamentales y organizaciones no gubernamentales. El programa GBADs (El impacto global de las enfermedades animales) servirá para compilar datos ya existentes con el fin de medir las pérdidas zoosanitarias dentro de sistemas productivos cuidadosamente caracterizados. La atribución coherente y transparente de estas pérdidas zoosanitarias permitirá efectuar comparaciones significativas del impacto que representan las enfermedades animales en el caso de diferentes dolencias, sistemas productivos o países y pondrá de relieve cómo se distribuye este impacto en función del género y la condición socioeconómica de las personas. Por medio del programa GBADs se creará un motor de conocimiento y portal de datos ubicado en la nube que permita al usuario acceder a mediciones del impacto de enfermedades y representaciones gráficas conexas, a herramientas de apoyo a la adopción de decisiones, en forma de hipotéticas situaciones zoosanitarias futuras, y a los resultados de modelizaciones económicas más generales. La aspiración del programa GBADs ­ reforzar el sistema alimentario en beneficio de la sociedad y el medio ambiente ­ constituye un ejemplo de aplicación en la práctica del pensamiento en clave de Una sola salud.

MILK Symposium review: Foodborne diseases from milk and milk products in developing countries-Review of causes and health and economic implications.

Dairy production is rapidly increasing in developing countries and making significant contributions to health, nutrition, environments, and livelihoods, with the potential for still greater contributions. However, dairy products can also contribute to human disease in many ways, with dairyborne disease likely being the most important. Health risks may be from biological, chemical, physical, or allergenic hazards present in milk and other dairy products. Lacking rigorous evidence on the full burden of foodborne and dairyborne disease in developing countries, we compiled information from different sources to improve our estimates. The most credible evidence on dairyborne disease comes from the World Health Organization initiative on the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease. This suggests that dairy products may has been responsible for 20 disability-adjusted life years per 100,000 people in 2010. This corresponds to around 4% of the global foodborne disease burden and 12% of the animal source food disease burden. Most of this burden falls on low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). However, the estimate is conservative. Weaker evidence from historical burden in high-income countries, outbreak reports from LMIC and high-income countries, and quantitative microbial risk assessment suggest that the real burden may be higher. The economic burden in terms of lost human capital is at least US$4 billion/yr in LMIC. Among the most important hazards are Mycobacterium bovis, Campylobacter spp., and non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica. The known burden of chemical hazards is lower but also more uncertain. Important chemical hazards are mycotoxins, dioxins, and heavy metals. Some interventions have been shown to have unintended and unwanted consequences, so formative research and rigorous evaluation should accompany interventions. For example, there are many documented cases in which women's control over livestock is diminished with increasing commercialization. Dairy co-operatives have had mixed success, often incurring governance and institutional challenges. More recently, there has been interest in working with the informal sector. New technologies offer new opportunities for sustainable dairy development.

Estimating true incidence of O157 and non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli illness in Germany based on notification data of haemolytic uraemic syndrome.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) is an important cause of gastroenteritis (GE) and haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). Incidence of STEC illness is largely underestimated in notification data, particularly of serogroups other than O157 ('non-O157'). Using HUS national notification data (2008-2012, excluding 2011), we modelled true annual incidence of STEC illness in Germany separately for O157 and non-O157 STEC, taking into account the groups' different probabilities of causing bloody diarrhoea and HUS, and the resulting difference in their under-ascertainment. Uncertainty of input parameters was evaluated by stochastic Monte Carlo simulations. Median annual incidence (per 100 000 population) of STEC-associated HUS and STEC-GE was estimated at 0·11 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·08-0·20], and 35 (95% CrI 12-145), respectively. German notification data underestimated STEC-associated HUS and STEC-GE incidences by factors of 1·8 and 32·3, respectively. Non-O157 STEC accounted for 81% of all STEC-GE, 51% of all bloody STEC-GE and 32% of all STEC-associated HUS cases. Non-O157 serogroups dominate incidence of STEC-GE and contribute significantly to STEC-associated HUS in Germany. This might apply to many other countries considering European surveillance data on HUS. Non-O157 STEC should be considered in parallel with STEC O157 when searching aetiology in patients with GE or HUS, and accounted for in modern surveillance systems.

Comorbidities and factors associated with central nervous system infections and death in non-perinatal listeriosis: a clinical case series.

BACKGROUND: Listeriosis is a rare disease caused by the bacterium Listeria monocytogenes and mainly affects at risk people. Listeriosis can lead to sepsis, central nervous system (CNS) infections and death. The objectives of this study were to describe and quantify comorbidities and neurological sequelae underlying non-perinatal listeriosis cases and to describe the factors associated with death and CNS infections in non-perinatal listeriosis. METHODS: We retrospectively collected clinical data through computerized, paper or microfilmed medical records in two Belgian university hospitals. Logistic regression models and likelihood ratio tests allowed identifying factors associated with death and CNS infections. RESULTS: Sixty-four cases of non-perinatal listeriosis were included in the clinical case series and 84 % were affected by at least one comorbid condition. The main comorbidities were cancer, renal and severe cardio-vascular diseases. Twenty-nine patients (45 %) suffered from a CNS infection and 14 patients (22 %) died during hospitalization, among whom six (43 %) had a CNS involvement. Among surviving patients, eleven suffered from neurological sequelae (22 %) at hospital discharge; all had CNS infection. Five of these patients (45 %) still suffered of their neurological sequelae after a median follow-up of one year (range: 0.08-19). The factor associated with death during the hospitalization was the presence of a severe cardiovascular disease (OR = 4.72, p = 0.015). Two factors inversely related with CNS infections were antibiotic monotherapy (OR = 0.28, p = 0.04) and the presence of renal disease (OR = 0.18, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In a public health context these results could be a starting point for future burden of listeriosis studies taking into account comorbidity.

Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis.

The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981-2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016-2045 and 2036-2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981-2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from -67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation.

Relative risk of irritable bowel syndrome following acute gastroenteritis and associated risk factors.

SUMMARY: A prospective cohort study using electronic medical records was undertaken to estimate the relative risk (RR) of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) following acute gastroenteritis (GE) in primary-care patients in The Netherlands and explore risk factors. Patients aged 18-70 years who consulted for GE symptoms from 1998 to 2009, met inclusion/exclusion criteria and had at least 1 year of follow-up data were included. Patients with non-GE consultations, matched by age, gender, consulting practice and time of visit, served as the reference group. At 1 year, 1·2% of GE patients (N = 2428) had been diagnosed with IBS compared to 0·3% of the reference group (N = 2354). GE patients had increased risk of IBS [RR 4·85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·02-11·63]. For GE patients, concomitant cramps and history of psycho-social consultations were significantly associated with increased risk. GE patients had increased risk of IBS up to 5 years post-exposure (RR 5·40, 95% CI 2·60-11·24), suggesting there may be other contributing factors.

Campylobacteriosis in returning travellers and potential secondary transmission of exotic strains.

SUMMARY: Multilocus sequence types (STs) were determined for 232 and 737 Campylobacter jejuni/coli isolates from Dutch travellers and domestically acquired cases, respectively. Putative risk factors for travel-related campylobacteriosis, and for domestically acquired campylobacteriosis caused by exotic STs (putatively carried by returning travellers), were investigated. Travelling to Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Southern Europe significantly increased the risk of acquiring campylobacteriosis compared to travelling within Western Europe. Besides eating chicken, using antacids, and having chronic enteropathies, we identified eating vegetable salad outside Europe, drinking bottled water in high-risk destinations, and handling/eating undercooked pork as possible risk factors for travel-related campylobacteriosis. Factors associated with domestically acquired campylobacteriosis caused by exotic STs involved predominantly person-to-person contacts around popular holiday periods. We concluded that putative determinants of travel-related campylobacteriosis differ from those of domestically acquired infections and that returning travellers may carry several exotic strains that might subsequently spread to domestic populations even through limited person-to-person transmission.

Attribution of human Salmonella infections to animal and food sources in Italy (2002-2010): adaptations of the Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models.

The Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models were adapted to Italian Salmonella data to attribute human infections caused by the top 30 serotypes between 2002 and 2010 to four putative sources (Gallus gallus, turkeys, pigs, ruminants), at the points of animal reservoir (farm), exposure (food), and both combined. Attribution estimates were thus compared between different models, time periods and sampling points. All models identified pigs as the main source of human salmonellosis in Italy, accounting for 43-60% of infections, followed by G. gallus (18-34%). Attributions to turkeys and ruminants were minor. An increasing temporal trend in attributions to pigs and a decreasing one in those to G. gallus was also observed. Although the outcomes of the two models applied at farm and food levels essentially agree, they can be refined once more information becomes available, providing valuable insights about potential targets along the production chain.

Impact of acquired immunity and dose-dependent probability of illness on quantitative microbial risk assessment.

Dose-response models in microbial risk assessment consider two steps in the process ultimately leading to illness: from exposure to (asymptomatic) infection, and from infection to (symptomatic) illness. Most data and theoretical approaches are available for the exposure-infection step; the infection-illness step has received less attention. Furthermore, current microbial risk assessment models do not account for acquired immunity. These limitations may lead to biased risk estimates. We consider effects of both dose dependency of the conditional probability of illness given infection, and acquired immunity to risk estimates, and demonstrate their effects in a case study on exposure to Campylobacter jejuni. To account for acquired immunity in risk estimates, an inflation factor is proposed. The inflation factor depends on the relative rates of loss of protection over exposure. The conditional probability of illness given infection is based on a previously published model, accounting for the within-host dynamics of illness. We find that at low (average) doses, the infection-illness model has the greatest impact on risk estimates, whereas at higher (average) doses and/or increased exposure frequencies, the acquired immunity model has the greatest impact. The proposed models are strongly nonlinear, and reducing exposure is not expected to lead to a proportional decrease in risk and, under certain conditions, may even lead to an increase in risk. The impact of different dose-response models on risk estimates is particularly pronounced when introducing heterogeneity in the population exposure distribution.

Potential association between the recent increase in campylobacteriosis incidence in the Netherlands and proton-pump inhibitor use - an ecological study.

The Netherlands saw an unexplained increase in campylobacteriosis incidence between 2003 and 2011, following a period of continuous decrease. We conducted an ecological study and found a statistical association between campylobacteriosis incidence and the annual number of prescriptions for proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), controlling for the patient's age, fresh and frozen chicken purchases (with or without correction for campylobacter prevalence in fresh poultry meat). The effect of PPIs was larger in the young than in the elderly. However, the counterfactual population-attributable fraction for PPIs was largest for the elderly (ca 45% in 2011) and increased at population level from 8% in 2004 to 27% in 2011. Using the regression model and updated covariate values, we predicted a trend break for 2012, largely due to a decreased number of PPI prescriptions, that was subsequently confirmed by surveillance data. Although causality was not shown, the biological mechanism, age effect and trend-break prediction suggest a substantial impact of PPI use on campylobacteriosis incidence in the Netherlands. We chose the ecological study design to pilot whether it is worthwhile to further pursue the effect of PPI on campylobacteriosis and other gastrointestinal pathogens in prospective cohort studies. We now provide strong arguments to do so.

Estimating the true incidence of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis in the European Union, 2009.

We estimated the true incidence of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis in the European Union (EU) in 2009. The estimate was based on disease risks of returning Swedish travellers, averaged over the years 2005-2009, and anchored to a Dutch population-based study on incidence and aetiology of gastroenteritis. For the 27 EU member states the incidence of campylobacteriosis was about 9·2 (95% CI 2·8-23) million cases, while the incidence of salmonellosis was 6·2 (95% CI 1·0-19) million cases. Only 1/47 (95% CI 14-117) cases of campylobacteriosis and one 1/58 (95% CI 9-172) cases of salmonellosis were reported in the EU. The incidence rate of campylobacteriosis in EU member states varied between 30 and 13 500/100 000 population and was significantly correlated with the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens. The incidence rate of salmonellosis in EU member states varied between 16 and 11 800/100 000 population and was significantly correlated with the prevalence of Salmonella Enteritidis in laying hens.

The estimated disease burden of norovirus in The Netherlands.

Noroviruses are an important cause of acute gastroenteritis in humans. We incorporated new insights gained over the past decade in an updated estimate of the disease burden of (foodborne) norovirus illness in The Netherlands in 2009. The disease outcomes - non-consulting cases, visiting a general practitioner, hospitalization and mortality - and the foodborne proportion were derived from cohort studies, surveillance data and literature. Age-specific incidence estimates were applied to the population age distribution in The Netherlands in 2009. The general population incidence was 3800/100 000 (95% CI 2670­5460), including 0.4 fatal cases/100 000,resulting in 1622 (95% CI 966­2650) disability-adjusted life-years in a population of 16.5 million [corrected].The updated burden of norovirus is over twofold higher than previously estimated, due in particular to the new insights in case-fatality ratios. Results suggest that the burden of norovirus institutional outbreaks is relatively small compared to the burden of community-acquired norovirus infections.

Increased risk for Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli infection of pet origin in dog owners and evidence for genetic association between strains causing infection in humans and their pets.

We compared Campylobacter jejuni/coli multilocus sequence types (STs) from pets (dogs/cats) and their owners and investigated risk factors for pet-associated human campylobacteriosis using a combined source-attribution and case-control analysis. In total, 132/687 pet stools were Campylobacter-positive, resulting in 499 strains isolated (320 C. upsaliensis/helveticus, 100 C. jejuni, 33 C. hyointestinalis/fetus, 10 C. lari, 4 C. coli, 32 unidentified). There were 737 human and 104 pet C. jejuni/coli strains assigned to 154 and 49 STs, respectively. Dog, particularly puppy, owners were at increased risk of infection with pet-associated STs. In 2/68 cases vs. 0.134/68 expected by chance, a pet and its owner were infected with an identical ST (ST45, ST658). Although common sources of infection and directionality of transmission between pets and humans were unknown, dog ownership significantly increased the risk for pet-associated human C. jejuni/coli infection and isolation of identical strains in humans and their pets occurred significantly more often than expected.

Community incidence of pathogen-specific gastroenteritis: reconstructing the surveillance pyramid for seven pathogens in seven European Union member states.

By building reconstruction models for a case of gastroenteritis in the general population moving through different steps of the surveillance pyramid we estimated that millions of illnesses occur annually in the European population, leading to thousands of hospitalizations. We used data on the healthcare system in seven European Union member states in relation to pathogen characteristics that influence healthcare seeking. Data on healthcare usage were obtained by harmonized cross-sectional surveys. The degree of under-diagnosis and underreporting varied by pathogen and country. Overall, underreporting and under-diagnosis were estimated to be lowest for Germany and Sweden, followed by Denmark, The Netherlands, UK, Italy and Poland. Across all countries, the incidence rate was highest for Campylobacter spp. and Salmonella spp. Incidence estimates resulting from the pyramid reconstruction approach are adjusted for biases due to different surveillance systems and are therefore a better basis for international comparisons than reported data.

A new gene, encoding an anion transporter, is mutated in sialic acid storage diseases.

Sialic acid storage diseases (SASD, MIM 269920) are autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disorders that may present as a severe infantile form (ISSD) or a slowly progressive adult form, which is prevalent in Finland (Salla disease). The main symptoms are hypotonia, cerebellar ataxia and mental retardation; visceromegaly and coarse features are also present in infantile cases. Progressive cerebellar atrophy and dysmyelination have been documented by magnetic resonance imaging (ref. 4). Enlarged lysosomes are seen on electron microscopic studies and patients excrete large amounts of free sialic acid in urine. A H+/anionic sugar symporter mechanism for sialic acid and glucuronic acid is impaired in lysosomal membranes from Salla and ISSD patients. The locus for Salla disease was assigned to a region of approximately 200 kb on chromosome 6q14-q15 in a linkage study using Finnish families. Salla disease and ISSD were further shown to be allelic disorders. A physical map with P1 and PAC clones was constructed to cover the 200-kb area flanked by the loci D6S280 and D6S1622, providing the basis for precise physical positioning of the gene. Here we describe a new gene, SLC17A5 (also known as AST), encoding a protein (sialin) with a predicted transport function that belongs to a family of anion/cation symporters (ACS). We found a homozygous SLC17A5 mutation (R39C) in five Finnish patients with Salla disease and six different SLC17A5 mutations in six ISSD patients of different ethnic origins. Our observations suggest that mutations in SLC17A5 are the primary cause of lysosomal sialic acid storage diseases.

The burden of infectious intestinal disease (IID) in the community: a survey of self-reported IID in The Netherlands.

In 2009, a 1-year retrospective survey was performed in The Netherlands to estimate the incidence and the disease burden of infectious intestinal disease (IID) in the community, to study the selection of patients consulting a general practitioner and to identify potential risk factors for IID in the community. A questionnaire was sent to 6000 persons selected at random from the population registries of 28 municipalities, with 500 persons being approached per month. A total of 1975 (33%) persons participated. The incidence rate of IID was 964/1000 person-years. Potential risk factors associated with IID in the community were young age (0-4 years) [odds ratio (OR) 3.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-10.5], having asthma as a child (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.1-10.3) and use of gastric acid suppressive medication by persons aged ≥ 45 years (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4-5.6). Of the 146 cases with IID, 11 (8%) consulted a physician. Cases with a long duration of symptoms, blood in the stool, children with IID and cases with a low level of education were more likely to consult a physician. Two cases had a stool sample taken and one was admitted to hospital. In conclusion, IID is common and has a significant burden of illness in The Netherlands. Our data indicate that about 15.9 million episodes of IID occur in The Netherlands per year. The incidence rate is substantially higher than the rate of 283/1000 person-years as estimated in 1999 in The Netherlands. This is probably largely due to the retrospective nature of the present study and, to a lesser extent, to differences in case definitions.

Disease outbreaks associated with untreated recreational water use.

Annual overviews of waterborne disease outbreaks associated with untreated recreational water use provided by authorities responsible for bathing-water quality and public health in The Netherlands revealed 742 outbreaks during 1991-2007 mainly comprising of skin conditions (48%) and gastroenteritis (31%) and involving at least 5623 patients. The number of outbreaks per bathing season correlated with the number of days with temperatures over 25°C (r=0.8-0.9), but was not reduced through compliance with European bathing-water legislation (r=0.1), suggesting that monitoring of faecal indicator parameters and striving for compliance with water-quality standards may not sufficiently protect bathers. Bathing sites were prone to incidental faecal contamination events or environmental conditions that favoured the growth of naturally occurring pathogens. Identification of all possible contamination sources, awareness of changes that might negatively affect water quality, and provision of adequate information to the public are important preventive measures to protect public health.

Decreased prevalence and age-specific risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii IgG antibodies in The Netherlands between 1995/1996 and 2006/2007.

To estimate the change in the seroprevalence and risk factors for toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands, a study was conducted in the general population in 2006/2007, similarly designed as a previous study in 1995/1996. Testing 5541 sera for IgG antibodies against Toxoplasma gondii showed a marked decrease of the overall seroprevalence to 26·0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24·0-28·0], compared to 40·5% (95% CI 37·5-43·4) in 1995/1996. In women of reproductive age the seroprevalence decreased from 35·2% (95% CI 32·9-38·6) in 1995/1996 to 18·5% (95% CI 16·2-20·7) in 2006/2007, leaving the majority of pregnant women susceptible to primary infection with T. gondii and their babies to congenital toxoplasmosis. In participants aged ≥20 years, Toxoplasma seropositivity was associated with living in the Northwest, living in urban areas, low educational level, consumption of raw pork, keeping a cat, and not having occupational contact with clients or patients. For younger participants, risk factors were keeping sheep or cattle, consumption of raw unwashed vegetables and putting sand in the mouth.

A practical framework for the construction of a biotracing model: application to Salmonella in the pork slaughter chain.

A novel purpose of the use of mathematical models in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is to identify the sources of microbial contamination in a food chain (i.e., biotracing). In this article we propose a framework for the construction of a biotracing model, eventually to be used in industrial food production chains where discrete numbers of products are processed that may be contaminated by a multitude of sources. The framework consists of steps in which a Monte Carlo model, simulating sequential events in the chain following a modular process risk modeling (MPRM) approach, is converted to a Bayesian belief network (BBN). The resulting model provides a probabilistic quantification of concentrations of a pathogen throughout a production chain. A BBN allows for updating the parameters of the model based on observational data, and global parameter sensitivity analysis is readily performed in a BBN. Moreover, a BBN enables "backward reasoning" when downstream data are available and is therefore a natural framework for answering biotracing questions. The proposed framework is illustrated with a biotracing model of Salmonella in the pork slaughter chain, based on a recently published Monte Carlo simulation model. This model, implemented as a BBN, describes the dynamics of Salmonella in a Dutch slaughterhouse and enables finding the source of contamination of specific carcasses at the end of the chain.

Disease burden of post-infectious irritable bowel syndrome in The Netherlands.

Post-infectious irritable bowel syndrome (PI-IBS) has been established as a sequel of infectious intestinal disease (IID). The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of PI-IBS caused by the pathogens Campylobacter, Salmonella and Shigella, and to compare this with other outcomes associated with these pathogens. The attributable risk of PI-IBS due to bacterial pathogens was calculated and linked to national data on gastroenteritis incidence and measures for severity and duration of illness in order to estimate the burden of PI-IBS. One year post-infection, IBS developed in 9% of patients with bacterial IID. The burden of PI-IBS adds over 2300 disability adjusted life years to the total annual disease burden for the selected pathogens. PI-IBS is a frequent sequel of IID, resulting in a considerable disease burden compared to other outcomes. If this relationship is not considered, this will result in an underestimation of the disease burden of IID.