Magnitude and Kinetics of Anti-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Responses and Their Relationship to Disease Severity.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can be detected indirectly by measuring the host immune response. For some viruses, antibody concentrations correlate with host protection and viral neutralization, but in rare cases, antiviral antibodies can promote disease progression. Elucidation of the kinetics and magnitude of the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response is essential to understand the pathogenesis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and identify potential therapeutic targets. METHODS: Sera (n = 533) from patients with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 (n = 94 with acute infections and n = 59 convalescent patients) were tested using a high-throughput quantitative immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) assay that detects antibodies to the spike protein receptor binding domain and nucleocapsid protein. Individual and serial samples covered the time of initial diagnosis, during the disease course, and following recovery. We evaluated antibody kinetics and correlation between magnitude of the response and disease severity. RESULTS: Patterns of SARS-CoV-2 antibody production varied considerably. Among 52 patients with 3 or more serial specimens, 44 (84.6%) and 42 (80.8%) had observed IgM and IgG seroconversion at a median of 8 and 10 days, respectively. Compared to those with milder disease, peak measurements were significantly higher for patients admitted to the intensive care unit for all time intervals between 6 and 20 days for IgM, and all intervals after 5 days for IgG. CONCLUSIONS: High-sensitivity assays with a robust dynamic range provide a comprehensive picture of host antibody response to SARS-CoV-2. IgM and IgG responses were significantly higher in patients with severe than mild disease. These differences may affect strategies for seroprevalence studies, therapeutics, and vaccine development.

Elimination of Taenia solium Transmission in Northern Peru.

BACKGROUND: Taeniasis and cysticercosis are major causes of seizures and epilepsy. Infection by the causative parasite Taenia solium requires transmission between humans and pigs. The disease is considered to be eradicable, but data on attempts at regional elimination are lacking. We conducted a three-phase control program in Tumbes, Peru, to determine whether regional elimination would be feasible. METHODS: We systematically tested and compared elimination strategies to show the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of T. solium infection in a region of highly endemic disease in Peru. In phase 1, we assessed the effectiveness and feasibility of six intervention strategies that involved screening of humans and pigs, antiparasitic treatment, prevention education, and pig replacement in 42 villages. In phase 2, we compared mass treatment with mass screening (each either with or without vaccination of pigs) in 17 villages. In phase 3, we implemented the final strategy of mass treatment of humans along with the mass treatment and vaccination of pigs in the entire rural region of Tumbes (107 villages comprising 81,170 people and 55,638 pigs). The effect of the intervention was measured after phases 2 and 3 with the use of detailed necropsy to detect pigs with live, nondegenerated cysts capable of causing new infection. The necropsy sampling was weighted in that we preferentially included more samples from seropositive pigs than from seronegative pigs. RESULTS: Only two of the strategies implemented in phase 1 resulted in limited control over the transmission of T. solium infection, which highlighted the need to intensify the subsequent strategies. After the strategies in phase 2 were implemented, no cyst that was capable of further transmission of T. solium infection was found among 658 sampled pigs. One year later, without further intervention, 7 of 310 sampled pigs had live, nondegenerated cysts, but no infected pig was found in 11 of 17 villages, including all the villages in which mass antiparasitic treatment plus vaccination was implemented. After the final strategy was implemented in phase 3, a total of 3 of 342 pigs had live, nondegenerated cysts, but no infected pig was found in 105 of 107 villages. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that the transmission of T. solium infection was interrupted on a regional scale in a highly endemic region in Peru. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

Sequential Rift Valley fever outbreaks in eastern Africa caused by multiple lineages of the virus.

BACKGROUND: During the Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic of 2006-2007 in eastern Africa, spatial mapping of the outbreaks across Kenya, Somalia, and Tanzania was performed and the RVF viruses were isolated and genetically characterized. METHODS: Following confirmation of the RVF epidemic in Kenya on 19 December 2006 and in Tanzania on 2 February 2007, teams were sent to the field for case finding. Human, livestock, and mosquito specimens were collected and viruses isolated. The World Health Organization response team in Kenya worked with the WHO's polio surveillance team inside Somalia to collect information and specimens from Somalia. RESULTS: Seven geographical foci that reported hundreds of livestock and >25 cases in humans between December 2006 and June 2007 were identified. The onset of RVF cases in each epidemic focus was preceded by heavy rainfall and flooding for at least 10 days. Full-length genome analysis of 16 RVF virus isolates recovered from humans, livestock, and mosquitoes in 5 of the 7 outbreak foci revealed 3 distinct lineages of the viruses within and across outbreak foci. CONCLUSION: The findings indicate that the sequential RVF epidemics in the region were caused by multiple lineages of the RVF virus, sometimes independently activated or introduced in distinct outbreak foci.

Visceral leishmaniasis outbreaks in Bihar: community-level investigations in the context of elimination of kala-azar as a public health problem.

BACKGROUND: With visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence at its lowest level since the 1960s, increasing attention has turned to early detection and investigation of outbreaks. METHODS: Outbreak investigations were triggered by recognition of case clusters in the VL surveillance system established for the elimination program. Investigations included ascertainment of all VL cases by date of fever onset, household mapping and structured collection of risk factor data. RESULTS: VL outbreaks were investigated in 13 villages in 10 blocks of 7 districts. Data were collected for 20,670 individuals, of whom 272 were diagnosed with VL between 2012 and 2019. Risk was significantly higher among 10-19 year-olds and adults 35 or older compared to children younger than 10 years. Outbreak confirmation triggered vector control activities and heightened surveillance. VL cases strongly clustered in tolas (hamlets within villages) in which > 66% of residents self-identified as scheduled caste or scheduled tribe (SC/ST); 79.8% of VL cases occurred in SC/ST tolas whereas only 24.2% of the population resided in them. Other significant risk factors included being an unskilled non-agricultural laborer, migration for work in a brick kiln, living in a kuccha (mud brick) house, household crowding, habitually sleeping outside or on the ground, and open defecation. CONCLUSIONS: Our data highlight the importance of sensitive surveillance with triggers for case cluster detection and rapid, careful outbreak investigations to better respond to ongoing and new transmission. The strong association with SC/ST tolas suggests that efforts should focus on enhanced surveillance in these disadvantaged communities.

Optimizing Village-Level Targeting of Active Case Detection to Support Visceral Leishmaniasis Elimination in India.

Background: India has made major progress in improving control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in recent years, in part through shortening the time infectious patients remain untreated. Active case detection decreases the time from VL onset to diagnosis and treatment, but requires substantial human resources. Targeting approaches are therefore essential to feasibility. Methods: We analyzed data from the Kala-azar Management Information System (KAMIS), using village-level VL cases over specific time intervals to predict risk in subsequent years. We also graphed the time between cases in villages and examined how these patterns track with village-level risk of additional cases across the range of cumulative village case-loads. Finally, we assessed the trade-off between ACD effort and yield. Results: In 2013, only 9.3% of all villages reported VL cases; this proportion shrank to 3.9% in 2019. Newly affected villages as a percentage of all affected villages decreased from 54.3% in 2014 to 23.5% in 2019, as more surveillance data accumulated and overall VL incidence declined. The risk of additional cases in a village increased with increasing cumulative incidence, reaching approximately 90% in villages with 12 cases and 100% in villages with 45 cases, but the vast majority of villages had small cumulative case numbers. The time-to-next-case decreased with increasing case-load. Using a 3-year window (2016-2018), a threshold of seven VL cases at the village level selects 329 villages and yields 23% of cases reported in 2019, while a threshold of three cases selects 1,241 villages and yields 46% of cases reported in 2019. Using a 6-year window increases both effort and yield. Conclusion: Decisions on targeting must consider the trade-off between number of villages targeted and yield and will depend upon the operational efficiencies of existing programs and the feasibility of specific ACD approaches. The maintenance of a sensitive, comprehensive VL surveillance system will be crucial to preventing future VL resurgence.

Development and Evaluation of Active Case Detection Methods to Support Visceral Leishmaniasis Elimination in India.

As India moves toward the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, comprehensive timely case detection has become increasingly important, in order to reduce the period of infectivity and control outbreaks. During the 2000s, localized research studies suggested that a large percentage of VL cases were never reported in government data. However, assessments conducted from 2013 to 2015 indicated that 85% or more of confirmed cases were eventually captured and reported in surveillance data, albeit with significant delays before diagnosis. Based on methods developed during these assessments, the CARE India team evolved new strategies for active case detection (ACD), applicable at large scale while being sufficiently effective in reducing time to diagnosis. Active case searches are triggered by the report of a confirmed VL case, and comprise two major search mechanisms: 1) case identification based on the index case's knowledge of other known VL cases and searches in nearby houses (snowballing); and 2) sustained contact over time with a range of private providers, both formal and informal. Simultaneously, house-to-house searches were conducted in 142 villages of 47 blocks during this period. We analyzed data from 5030 VL patients reported in Bihar from January 2018 through July 2019. Of these 3033 were detected passively and 1997 via ACD (15 (0.8%) via house-to-house and 1982 (99.2%) by light touch ACD methods). We constructed multinomial logistic regression models comparing time intervals to diagnosis (30-59, 60-89 and ≥90 days with <30 days as the referent). ACD and younger age were associated with shorter time to diagnosis, while male sex and HIV infection were associated with longer illness durations. The advantage of ACD over PCD was more marked for longer illness durations: the adjusted odds ratios for having illness durations of 30-59, 60-89 and >=90 days compared to the referent of <30 days for ACD vs PCD were 0.88, 0.56 and 0.42 respectively. These ACD strategies not only reduce time to diagnosis, and thus risk of transmission, but also ensure that there is a double check on the proportion of cases actually getting captured. Such a process can supplement passive case detection efforts that must go on, possibly perpetually, even after elimination as a public health problem is achieved.

Geospatial distribution and determinants of child mortality in rural western Kenya 2002-2005.

OBJECTIVE: To describe local geospatial variation and geospatial risk factors for child mortality in rural western Kenya. METHODS: We calculated under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) in 217 villages in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area in western Kenya from 1 May 2002 through 31 December 2005. U5MRs by village were mapped. Geographical positioning system coordinates of residences at the time of death and distances to nearby locations were calculated. Multivariable Poisson regression accounting for clustering at the compound level was used to evaluate the association of geospatial factors and mortality for infants and children aged 1-4 years. RESULTS: Among 54 057 children, the overall U5MR was 56.5 per 1000 person-years and varied by village from 21 to 177 per 1000 person-years. High mortality villages occurred in clusters by location and remained in the highest mortality quintile over several years. In multivariable analysis, controlling for maternal age and education as well as household crowding, higher infant mortality was associated with living closer to streams and further from public transport roads. For children 1-4 years, living at middle elevations (1280-1332 metres), living within lower population densities areas, and living in the northern section of the HDSS were associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood mortality was significantly higher in some villages. Several geospatial factors were associated with mortality, which might indicate variability in access to health care or exposure and transmission of infectious diseases. These results are useful in prioritising areas for further study and implementing directed public health interventions.

Assessing bed net use and non-use after long-lasting insecticidal net distribution: a simple framework to guide programmatic strategies.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are becoming increasingly available to vulnerable populations at risk for malaria. Their appropriate and consistent use is essential to preventing malaria, but ITN use often lags behind ITN ownership. In order to increase ITN use, it is necessary to devise strategies that accurately identify, differentiate, and target the reasons and types of non-use. METHODS: A simple method based on the end-user as the denominator was employed to classify each individual into one of four ITN use categories: 1) living in households not owning an ITN; 2) living in households owning, but not hanging an ITN; 3) living in households owning and hanging an ITN, but who are not sleeping under one; and 4) sleeping under an ITN. This framework was applied to survey data designed to evaluate long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) distributions following integrated campaigns in five countries: Togo, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Kenya and Niger. RESULTS: The percentage of children <5 years of age sleeping under an ITN ranged from 51.5% in Kenya to 81.1% in Madagascar. Among the three categories of non-use, children living in households without an ITN make up largest group (range: 9.4%-30.0%), despite the efforts of the integrated child health campaigns. The percentage of children who live in households that own but do not hang an ITN ranged from 5.1% to 16.1%. The percentage of children living in households where an ITN was suspended, but who were not sleeping under it ranged from 4.3% to 16.4%. Use by all household members in Sierra Leone (39.9%) and Madagascar (60.4%) indicate that integrated campaigns reach beyond their desired target populations. CONCLUSIONS: The framework outlined in this paper provides a helpful tool to examine the deficiencies in ITN use. Monitoring and evaluation strategies designed to assess ITN ownership and use can easily incorporate this approach using existing data collection instruments that measure the standard indicators.

Bed net ownership in Kenya: the impact of 3.4 million free bed nets.

BACKGROUND: In July and September 2006, 3.4 million long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLINs) were distributed free in a campaign targeting children 0-59 months old (CU5s) in the 46 districts with malaria in Kenya. A survey was conducted one month after the distribution to evaluate who received campaign LLINs, who owned insecticide-treated bed nets and other bed nets received through other channels, and how these nets were being used. The feasibility of a distribution strategy aimed at a high-risk target group to meet bed net ownership and usage targets is evaluated. METHODS: A stratified, two-stage cluster survey sampled districts and enumeration areas with probability proportional to size. Handheld computers (PDAs) with attached global positioning systems (GPS) were used to develop the sampling frame, guide interviewers back to chosen households, and collect survey data. RESULTS: In targeted areas, 67.5% (95% CI: 64.6, 70.3%) of all households with CU5s received campaign LLINs. Including previously owned nets, 74.4% (95% CI: 71.8, 77.0%) of all households with CU5s had an ITN. Over half of CU5s (51.7%, 95% CI: 48.8, 54.7%) slept under an ITN during the previous evening. Nearly forty percent (39.1%) of all households received a campaign net, elevating overall household ownership of ITNs to 50.7% (95% CI: 48.4, 52.9%). CONCLUSIONS: The campaign was successful in reaching the target population, families with CU5s, the risk group most vulnerable to malaria. Targeted distribution strategies will help Kenya approach indicator targets, but will need to be combined with other strategies to achieve desired population coverage levels.

Long-term incidence of relapse and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis after three different visceral leishmaniasis treatment regimens in Bihar, India.

BACKGROUND: Few prospective data exist on incidence of post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) relapse after different treatment regimens. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A Phase IV trial included 1761 VL patients treated between 2012-2014 with single dose AmBisome (SDA; N = 891), miltefosine-paromomycin (Milt-PM; n = 512), or AmBisome-miltefosine (AmB-Milt; n = 358). Follow-up for PKDL and VL relapse was scheduled for 6, 12 and 24 months after treatment, lasting until 2017. Patients with lesions consistent with PKDL were tested by rK39 rapid test, and if positive, underwent skin-snip sampling, smear microscopy and PCR. Probable PKDL was defined by consistent lesions and positive rK39; confirmed PKDL required additional positive microscopy or PCR. PKDL and relapse incidence density were calculated by VL treatment and risk factors evaluated in Cox proportional hazards models. Among 1,750 patients who completed treatment, 79 had relapse and 104 PKDL. Relapse incidence density was 1.58, 2.08 and 0.40 per 1000 person-months for SDA, AmB-Milt and Milt-PM, respectively. PKDL incidence density was 1.29, 1.45 and 2.65 per 1000 person-months for SDA, AmB-Milt and Milt-PM. In multivariable models, patients treated with Milt-PM had lower relapse but higher PKDL incidence than those treated with SDA; AmB-Milt rates were not significantly different from those for SDA. Children <12 years were at higher risk for both outcomes; females had a higher risk of PKDL but not relapse. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Active surveillance for PKDL and relapse, followed by timely treatment, is essential to sustain the achievements of VL elimination programs in the Indian sub-continent.

Field effectiveness of new visceral leishmaniasis regimens after 1 year following treatment within public health facilities in Bihar, India.

BACKGROUND: An earlier open label, prospective, non-randomized, non-comparative, multi-centric study conducted within public health facilities in Bihar, India (CTRI/2012/08/002891) measured the field effectiveness of three new treatment regimens for visceral leishmaniasis (VL): single dose AmBisome (SDA), and combination therapies of AmBisome and miltefosine (AmB+Milt) and miltefosine and paromomycin (Milt+PM) up to 6 months follow-up. The National Vector Borne Disease Control Program (NVBDCP) recommended an extended follow up at 12 months post-treatment of the original study cohort to quantify late relapses. METHODS: The 1,761 patients enrolled in the original study with the three new regimens were contacted and traced between 10 and 36 months following completion of treatment to determine their health status and any occurrence of VL relapse. RESULTS: Of 1,761 patients enrolled in the original study, 1,368 were traced at the extended follow-up visit: 711 (80.5%), 295 (83.2%) and 362 (71.5%) patients treated with SDA, AmB+Milt and Milt+PM respectively. Of those traced, a total of 75 patients were reported to have relapsed by the extended follow-up; 45 (6.3%) in the SDA, 25 (8.5%) in the AmB+Milt and 5 (1.4%) in the Milt+PM arms. Of the 75 relapse cases, 55 had already been identified in the 6-months follow-up and 20 were identified as new cases of relapse at extended follow-up; 7 in the SDA, 10 in the AmB+Milt and 3 in the Milt+PM arms. CONCLUSION: Extending follow-up beyond the standard 6 months identified additional relapses, suggesting that 12-month sentinel follow-up may be useful as a programmatic tool to better identify and quantify relapses. With limited drug options, there remains an urgent need to develop effective new chemical entities (NCEs) for VL.

Field safety and effectiveness of new visceral leishmaniasis treatment regimens within public health facilities in Bihar, India.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, WHO recommended the use of new short-course treatment regimens in kala-azar elimination efforts for the Indian subcontinent. Although phase 3 studies have shown excellent results, there remains a lack of evidence on a wider treatment population and the safety and effectiveness of these regimens under field conditions. METHODS: This was an open label, prospective, non-randomized, non-comparative, multi-centric trial conducted within public health facilities in two highly endemic districts and a specialist referral centre in Bihar, India. Three treatment regimens were tested: single dose AmBisome (SDA), concomitant miltefosine and paromomycin (Milt+PM), and concomitant AmBisome and miltefosine (AmB+Milt). Patients with complicated disease or significant co-morbidities were treated in the SDA arm. Sample sizes were set at a minimum of 300 per arm, taking into account inter-site variation and an estimated failure risk of 5% with 5% precision. Outcomes of drug effectiveness and safety were measured at 6 months. The trial was prospectively registered with the Clinical Trials Registry India: CTRI/2012/08/002891. RESULTS: Out of 1,761 patients recruited, 50.6% (n = 891) received SDA, 20.3% (n = 358) AmB+Milt and 29.1% (n = 512) Milt+PM. In the ITT analysis, the final cure rates were SDA 91.4% (95% CI 89.3-93.1), AmB+Milt 88.8% (95% CI 85.1-91.9) and Milt+PM 96.9% (95% CI 95.0-98.2). In the complete case analysis, cure rates were SDA 95.5% (95% CI 93.9-96.8), AmB+Milt 95.5% (95% CI 92.7-97.5) and Milt+PM 99.6% (95% CI 98.6-99.9). All three regimens were safe, with 5 severe adverse events in the SDA arm, two of which were considered to be drug related. CONCLUSION: All regimens showed acceptable outcomes and safety profiles in a range of patients under field conditions. Phase IV field-based studies, although extremely rare for neglected tropical diseases, are good practice and an important step in validating the results of more restrictive hospital-based studies before widespread implementation, and in this case contributed to national level policy change in India. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical trial is registered at Clinical trial registry of India (CTRI/2012/08/002891, Registered on 16/08/2012, Trial Registered Prospectively).

Use of handheld computers with global positioning systems for probability sampling and data entry in household surveys.

We introduce an innovative method that uses personal digital assistants (PDAs) equipped with global positioning system (GPS) units in household surveys to select a probability-based sample and perform PDA-based interviews. Our approach uses PDAs with GPS to rapidly map all households in selected areas, choose a random sample, and navigate back to the sampled households to conduct an interview. We present recent field experience in two large-scale nationally representative household surveys to assess insecticide-treated bed net coverage as part of malaria control efforts in Africa. The successful application of this method resulted in statistically valid samples; quality-controlled data entry; and rapid aggregation, analyses, and availability of preliminary results within days of completing the field work. We propose this method as an alternative to the Expanded Program on Immunization cluster sample method when a fast, statistically valid survey is required in an environment with little census information at the enumeration area level.

Burden of malaria at community level in children less than 5 years of age in Togo.

A community-based baseline cross-sectional survey was conducted in three districts in Togo in September 2004 as part of a multidisciplinary evaluation of the impact of the Togo National Integrated Child Health Campaign. During this campaign, long-lasting-insecticide-treated bed nets (LLITNs) were distributed to households with children between 9 months and 5 years of age throughout the country in December 2004. The pre-intervention survey provided baseline malaria and anemia prevalence in children < 5 years of age during peak malaria transmission. Of 2,532 enrolled children from 1,740 households, 62.2% (1,352/2,172) were parasitemic and 84.4% (2,129/2,524) were anemic (hemoglobin < 11 g/dL). Moderate-to-severe anemia (< 8.0 g/dL) was found in 21.7% (543/2,524), with a peak prevalence in children 6-17 months of age and was strongly correlated with parasitemia (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.8-2.5). Net ownership (mainly untreated) was 225/2,532 (8.9%). Subsequent nation-wide introduction of LLITNs and the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy have the potential to markedly reduce this burden of malaria.

Higher percentages of circulating mast cell precursors correlate with susceptibility to reinfection with Schistosoma mansoni.

A high level of serum IgE is generally associated with human resistance to schistosomes, though the protective mechanisms of IgE remain undefined. We recently reported that whereas some individuals who are occupationally hyperexposed to Schistosoma mansoni display resistance to reinfection, others remain highly susceptible, in some cases due to HIV-1 co-infection. As IgE functions, in part, through FcepsilonRI on mast cells, we characterized circulating CD117(+) FcepsilonRI(+) mast cell precursors in this population. Surprisingly, a higher percentage of CD117(+) cells correlated with a susceptible phenotype in HIV-1 seronegative participants with schistosomiasis. There was no association between percentages of peripheral CD117(+) cells and susceptibility to reinfection in persons with HIV-1. Serum levels of polyclonal IgE were inversely correlated with percentages of CD117(+) cells regardless of HIV-1 status. Thus, immature mast cells may affect IgE availability, or IgE may affect immature mast cells, altering the balance of host susceptibility and resistance to schistosomes.

Epidemiology and spatial analysis of malaria in the Northern Peruvian Amazon.

A retrospective surveillance study was conducted to examine the micro-geographic variation of malaria incidence in three malaria-endemic communities in the Northern Peruvian Amazon. The annual malaria risk rate (per 100) ranged from 38% to 47% for Plasmodium vivax and from 15% to 18% for P. falciparum. Spatial clusters were found for P. vivax in Padre Cocha, Manacamiri, and Zungaro Cocha, and for P. falciparum only in Padre Cocha. Spatial-temporal clusters showed that the highest monthly number of P. vivax cases varied every year from December to March in 1996-1997 and from February to June in 1998-1999, and for P. falciparum from November to April in 1996-1997 and from January to April in 1998-1999. Our results suggest a constant presence of high-risk areas (hot spots) for malaria infection in periods with high or low malaria incidence. Modest targeted control efforts directed at identified high-risk areas may have significant impact on malaria transmission in this region.

A review of household drinking water intervention trials and an approach to the estimation of endemic waterborne gastroenteritis in the United States.

The incidence of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) attributable to public drinking water systems in the United States cannot be directly measured but must be estimated based on epidemiologic studies and other information. The randomized trial is one study design used to evaluate risks attributable to drinking water. In this paper, we review all published randomized trials of drinking water interventions in industrialized countries conducted among general immunocompetent populations. We then present an approach to estimating the incidence (number of cases) of AGI attributable annually to drinking water. To develop a national estimate, we integrate trial results with the estimated incidence of AGI using necessary assumptions about the estimated number of residents consuming different sources of drinking water and the relative quality of the water sources under different scenarios. Using this approach we estimate there to be 4.26-11.69 million cases of AGI annually attributable to public drinking water systems in the United States. We believe this preliminary estimate should be updated as new data become available.

Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. METHODS: Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. RESULTS: The final output was a RVF risk map that classified 101 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 21 districts as high risk, and 100 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 35 districts as medium risk and 190 divisions (48%) as low risk, including all 97 divisions in Nyanza and Western provinces. The risk of RVF was positively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), low altitude below 1000m and high precipitation in areas with solonertz, luvisols and vertisols soil types (p <0.05). CONCLUSION: RVF risk map serves as an important tool for developing and deploying prevention and control measures against the disease.

Virgin soil: the spread of visceral leishmaniasis into Uttar Pradesh, India.

We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and risk factors in two villages in Uttar Pradesh, India reported to have had a recent outbreak. In 245 households with 2,203 people, we detected 3 current VL cases, 32 past cases, and 8 VL deaths since 2001 (annual incidence = 6 per 1,000). Risk factors included living in the same household as a VL case (odds ratio [OR] = 76, P < 0.0005 in one village and OR = 22, P < 0.0005 in the other village), sleeping downstairs and outside in the summer (OR = 4.7, P = 0.004), and an age > or = 15 years old (OR = 2.9, P = 0.024). Increasing cattle density was a risk factor in one village but not the other. We were not able to determine the route by which VL entered the villages. Our data demonstrate a new spread of VL in previously unaffected areas. We recommend carefully supervised spraying with DDT, surveillance to pinpoint other affected villages, and efforts to increase availability of diagnostic and treatment facilities.

The perils of straying from protocol: sampling bias and interviewer effects.

Fidelity to research protocol is critical. In a contingent valuation study in an informal urban settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, participants responded differently to the three trained interviewers. Interviewer effects were present during the survey pilot, then magnified at the start of the main survey after a seemingly slight adaptation of the survey sampling protocol allowed interviewers to speak with the "closest neighbor" in the event that no one was home at a selected household. This slight degree of interviewer choice led to inferred sampling bias. Multinomial logistic regression and post-estimation tests revealed that the three interviewers' samples differed significantly from one another according to six demographic characteristics. The two female interviewers were 2.8 and 7.7 times less likely to talk with respondents of low socio-economic status than the male interviewer. Systematic error renders it impossible to determine which of the survey responses might be "correct." This experience demonstrates why researchers must take care to strictly follow sampling protocols, consistently train interviewers, and monitor responses by interview to ensure similarity between interviewers' groups and produce unbiased estimates of the parameters of interest.