Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting.

Climate change in the Arctic is leading to earlier summers, creating a phenological mismatch between the hatching of insectivorous birds and the availability of their invertebrate prey. While phenological mismatch would presumably lower the survival of chicks, climate change is also leading to longer, warmer summers that may increase the annual productivity of birds by allowing adults to lay nests over a longer period of time, replace more nests that fail, and provide physiological relief to chicks (i.e., warmer temperatures that reduce thermoregulatory costs). However, there is little information on how these competing ecological processes will ultimately impact the demography of bird populations. In 2008 and 2009, we investigated the survival of chicks from initial and experimentally-induced replacement nests of arcticola Dunlin (Calidris alpina) breeding near Utqiagvik, Alaska. We monitored survival of 66 broods from 41 initial and 25 replacement nests. Based on the average hatch date of each group, chick survival (up to age 15 days) from replacement nests (Si = 0.10; 95% CI = 0.02-0.22) was substantially lower than initial nests (Si = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.48-0.81). Daily survival rates were greater for older chicks, chicks from earlier-laid clutches, and during periods of greater invertebrate availability. As temperature was less important to daily survival rates of shorebird chicks than invertebrate availability, our results indicate that any physiological relief experienced by chicks will likely be overshadowed by the need for adequate food. Furthermore, the processes creating a phenological mismatch between hatching of shorebird young and invertebrate emergence ensures that warmer, longer breeding seasons will not translate into abundant food throughout the longer summers. Thus, despite having a greater opportunity to nest later (and potentially replace nests), young from these late-hatching broods will likely not have sufficient food to survive. Collectively, these results indicate that warmer, longer summers in the Arctic are unlikely to increase annual recruitment rates, and thus unable to compensate for low adult survival, which is typically limited by factors away from the Arctic-breeding grounds.

Phenological mismatch in Arctic-breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth.

The ecological consequences of climate change have been recognized in numerous species, with perhaps phenology being the most well-documented change. Phenological changes may have negative consequences when organisms within different trophic levels respond to environmental changes at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between predators and their prey. This may be especially apparent in the Arctic, which has been affected more by climate change than other regions, resulting in earlier, warmer, and longer summers. During a 7-year study near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological mismatch in relation to food availability and chick growth in a community of Arctic-breeding shorebirds experiencing advancement of environmental conditions (i.e., snowmelt). Our results indicate that Arctic-breeding shorebirds have experienced increased phenological mismatch with earlier snowmelt conditions. However, the degree of phenological mismatch was not a good predictor of food availability, as weather conditions after snowmelt made invertebrate availability highly unpredictable. As a result, the food available to shorebird chicks that were 2-10 days old was highly variable among years (ranging from 6.2 to 28.8 mg trap-1 day-1 among years in eight species), and was often inadequate for average growth (only 20%-54% of Dunlin and Pectoral Sandpiper broods on average had adequate food across a 4-year period). Although weather conditions vary among years, shorebirds that nested earlier in relation to snowmelt generally had more food available during brood rearing, and thus, greater chick growth rates. Despite the strong selective pressure to nest early, advancement of nesting is likely limited by the amount of plasticity in the start and progression of migration. Therefore, long-term climatic changes resulting in earlier snowmelt have the potential to greatly affect shorebird populations, especially if shorebirds are unable to advance nest initiation sufficiently to keep pace with seasonal advancement of their invertebrate prey.

Composition and Drivers of Gut Microbial Communities in Arctic-Breeding Shorebirds.

Gut microbiota can have important effects on host health, but explanatory factors and pathways that determine gut microbial composition can differ among host lineages. In mammals, host phylogeny is one of the main drivers of gut microbiota, a result of vertical transfer of microbiota during birth. In birds, it is less clear what the drivers might be, but both phylogeny and environmental factors may play a role. We investigated host and environmental factors that underlie variation in gut microbiota composition in eight species of migratory shorebirds. We characterized bacterial communities from 375 fecal samples collected from adults of eight shorebird species captured at a network of nine breeding sites in the Arctic and sub-Arctic ecoregions of North America, by sequencing the V4 region of the bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA gene. Firmicutes (55.4%), Proteobacteria (13.8%), Fusobacteria (10.2%), and Bacteroidetes (8.1%) dominated the gut microbiota of adult shorebirds. Breeding location was the main driver of variation in gut microbiota of breeding shorebirds (R 2 = 11.6%), followed by shorebird host species (R 2 = 1.8%), and sampling year (R 2 = 0.9%), but most variation remained unexplained. Site variation resulted from differences in the core bacterial taxa, whereas rare, low-abundance bacteria drove host species variation. Our study is the first to highlight a greater importance of local environment than phylogeny as a driver of gut microbiota composition in wild, migratory birds under natural conditions.