The impact of tree crops and temperature on the timing of frugivorous bird migration.

Migration has evolved to tackle temporal changes in availability of resources. Climate change has been shown to affect the migration dates of species, which raises the question of whether the variation in the timing of migration is climate or resource dependent? The relative importance of temperature and availability of food as drivers of migration behaviour during both spring and autumn seasons has been poorly studied. Here, we investigated these patterns in frugivorous and granivorous birds (hereafter frugivorous) that are assumed to postpone their autumn migration when there is plenty of food available, which may also advance upcoming spring migration. On the other hand, especially spring migration dates have been negatively connected with increasing temperatures. We tested whether the autumn and spring migration dates of eleven common frugivorous birds depended on the crop size of trees or ambient temperatures using 29 years of data in Finland. The increased crop sizes of trees delayed autumn migration dates; whereas, autumn temperature did not show a significant connection. We also observed a temporal trend towards later departure. Increasing temperature and crop sizes advanced spring arrival dates. Our results support the hypothesis that the timing of autumn migration in the frugivorous birds depends on the availability of food and is weakly connected with the variation in temperature. Importantly, crop size can have carry-over effects and affect the timing of spring arrival possibly because birds have overwintered closer to the breeding grounds after an abundant crop year.

Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect.

Spatial synchrony between populations emerges from endogenous and exogenous processes, such as intra- and interspecific interactions and abiotic factors. Understanding factors contributing to synchronous population dynamics help to better understand what determines abundance of a species. This study focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics in the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) using snow-track data from Finland from 29 years. We disentangled the effects of bottom-up and top-down forces as well as environmental factors on population dynamics with a spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical approach. We found red squirrel abundance to be positively associated with both the abundance of Norway spruce (Picea abies) cones and the predators, the pine marten (Martes martes) and the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), probably due to shared habitat preferences. The results suggest that red squirrel populations are synchronized over remarkably large distances, on a scale of hundreds of kilometres, and that this synchrony is mainly driven by similarly spatially autocorrelated spruce cone crop. Our research demonstrates how a bottom-up effect can drive spatial synchrony in consumer populations on a very large scale of hundreds of kilometres, and also how an explicit spatiotemporal approach can improve model performance for fluctuating populations.

Interannual variation and long-term trends in proportions of resident individuals in partially migratory birds.

Partial migration - a part of a population migrates and another part stays resident year-round on the breeding site - is probably the most common type of migration in the animal kingdom, yet it has only lately garnered more attention. Theoretical studies indicate that in partially migratory populations, the proportion of resident individuals (PoR) should increase in high latitudes in response to the warming climate, but empirical evidence exists for few species. We provide the first comprehensive overview of the environmental factors affecting PoR and the long-term trends in PoR by studying 27 common partially migratory bird species in Finland. The annual PoR values were calculated by dividing the winter bird abundance by the preceding breeding abundance. First, we analysed whether early-winter temperature, winter temperature year before or the abundance of tree seeds just before overwintering explains the interannual variation in PoR. Secondly, we analysed the trends in PoR between 1987 and 2011. Early-winter temperature explained the interannual variation in PoR in the waterbirds (waterfowl and gulls), most likely because the temperature affects the ice conditions and thereby the feeding opportunities for the waterbirds. In terrestrial species, the abundance of seeds was the best explanatory variable. Previous winter's temperature did not explain PoR in any species, and thus, we conclude that the variation in food availability caused the interannual variation in PoR. During the study period, PoR increased in waterbirds, but did not change in terrestrial birds. Partially migratory species living in physically contrasting habitats can differ in their annual and long-term population-level behavioural responses to warming climate, possibly because warm winter temperatures reduce ice cover and improve the feeding possibilities of waterbirds but do not directly regulate the food availability for terrestrial birds.

Testing dependence between growth and needle litterfall in Scots pine--a case study in northern Finland.

Both drought and fungal disease increase needle litterfall of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees, but most factors causing annual variation in needle litterfall are poorly understood. We hypothesized that radial growth and weather conditions favorable to growth correlate positively with needle litterfall with a lag equal to the number of needle cohorts (here being 5-6). We studied the time series of needle litterfall, stem increment, pollen cone litter and daily weather conditions in a Scots pine stand over 43 years (1961-2004). The cross-correlations of standardized time series were estimated with various lags. Model predictions of annual needle litterfall were tested against independent data. Changes in annual growth and needle litterfall correlated with lags of 0 and 4 years. The best predictors for needle litterfall were May to mid July temperature sum with a lag of 4 years, May rainfall with a lag of 2 years and September temperature with a lag of 6 years. Pollen cone litter correlated negatively with needle litterfall with a lag of 2 years. The study provided empirical evidence that needle litterfall of Scots pine in northern Finland is influenced by needle production and needle mass development that occurred 4 to 6 years earlier.

Long-term needle litterfall of a Scots pine Pinus sylvestris stand: relation to temperature factors.

Needle litterfall of a Scots pine was caught over 24 years (1962-1986) with litter-traps in a Scots pine stand in southeastern Finland. The age of the trees averaged 111 years in 1962. The stand was naturally recruited and only minor silvicultural treatments occurred during its history. Litterfall showed great year-to-year variation, the minimum being 18 g/m2 (in 1968) and maximum 213 g/m2 (in 1973). There was no overall trend in the amount of litterfall, and the age of the stand was thus not important in determining the needle fall. We used time domain time series analysis (ARIMA) and standard climatic data (temperature, precipitation) to investigate the relationship of litterfall to climatic factors. Mean July temperature was clearly correlated with needle litterfall. High temperature in July coincided with enhanced litterfall in the same and the next year. Litterfall enhanced litterfall in the same and the next year. Litterfall increased also after high temperatures during March-April, but only in the same year. In addition to these the litterfall had a 4-year self-dependency. This is approximately the same as the mean longevity of needles in the study area. Altogether the time series model we propose covers about 90% of the variance of the original time series.

Masting by Betula-species; applying the resource budget model to north European data sets.

Masting, the intermittent production of large crops of flowers by a plant population, is a common feature among trees in boreal and temperate forests. The pollen of many broadleaved trees causes allergic diseases, which are major causes of increasing health-care costs in industrialised countries. As the prevalence and severity of allergic diseases are connected with the concentrations of airborne pollen, an universal model predicting the intensity of the coming flowering would be a valuable tool for pollen information services, and ultimately for allergic people and allergologists. We investigated whether a resource budget model created in Japan explains the fluctuations in the annual pollen sums of Betula-species in north European data sets (10-12 years at 4 sites, 20 years at 10 sites). Using the shorter data sets, the model explained 76-92% of the annual fluctuations at five study sites. Using the 20-year data set, the percentage for southern Finland was much lower, only 48%, compared with the 85% of the 12-year data set. The annual pollen sums have been higher during the 1990s than in the 1980s, which may explain the ineffectiveness of the model, while applied to the 20-year data set. Our results support the resource budget model: the masting of birch species is regulated by weather factors together with the system of resource allocation among years. The model can serve pollen information service. However, only the 10 most recent years should be used to avoid interference from trends in changing vegetation and/or climate.