Detecting changes in population trends in infection surveillance using community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence as an exemplar.

Detecting and quantifying changes in growth rates of infectious diseases is vital to informing public health strategy and can inform policymakers' rationale for implementing or continuing interventions aimed at reducing impact. Substantial changes in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence with emergence of variants provides opportunity to investigate different methods to do this. We included PCR results from all participants in the UK's COVID-19 Infection Survey between August 2020-June 2022. Change-points for growth rates were identified using iterative sequential regression (ISR) and second derivatives of generalised additive models (GAMs). Consistency between methods and timeliness of detection were compared. Of 8,799,079 visits, 147,278 (1.7%) were PCR-positive. Change-points associated with emergence of major variants were estimated to occur a median 4 days earlier (IQR 0-8) in GAMs versus ISR. When estimating recent change-points using successive data periods, four change-points (4/96) identified by GAMs were not found when adding later data or by ISR. Change-points were detected 3-5 weeks after they occurred in both methods but could be detected earlier within specific subgroups. Change-points in growth rates of SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in near real-time using ISR and second derivatives of GAMs. To increase certainty about changes in epidemic trajectories both methods could be run in parallel.

Self-swabbing versus assisted swabbing for viral detection by qRT-PCR: the experience from SARS-CoV-2 based on a meta-analysis of six prospectively designed evaluations conducted in a UK setting.

PURPOSE: In April 2020, the UK Government implemented NHS Test and Trace to provide SARS-CoV-2 quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) testing for the public, with nose-and-throat swabbing for samples performed by trained staff. Self-swabbing (SS) would allow rapid scale-up of testing capacity and access. Six studies were undertaken to determine whether SS was as effective for detecting SARS-CoV-2 as swabbing performed by trained staff. METHODS: Six prospective studies were conducted between April-October 2020, using six swab/media combinations. Differences between assisted swabbing (AS) and SS were evaluated for concordance, positivity, sensitivity, cycle threshold (Ct) values and void rates. Statistical analysis was performed using 95% confidence intervals (CIs), paired t-tests and model-based methods. RESULTS: Overall, 3,253 individuals were recruited (median age 37 years, 49% female), with 2,933 having valid paired qRT-PCR results. Pooled concordance rate was 98% (95% CI: 96%, 99%). Positivity rate differences for SS (8.1%) and AS (8.4%) and differences in pooled sensitivities between SS (86%; 95% CI: 78%, 92%) and AS (91%; 95% CI: 78%, 96%) were nonsignificant. Both types of swabbing led to pooled void rates below 2% and strongly correlated Ct values. Age, sex and previous swabbing experience did not have a significant impact on concordance or sensitivity. CONCLUSION: The UK adopted a policy to promote self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 based on data demonstrating equivalence of SS versus AS. Positive outcomes with SS are likely generalisable to testing for other respiratory pathogens, and we consider self-sampling and self-testing essential for future pandemic preparedness.

The effectiveness and efficiency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies for patient and healthcare workers within acute NHS hospitals during an omicron-like period.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing of hospitalised patients began in April-2020, with twice weekly healthcare worker (HCW) testing introduced in November-2020. Guidance recommending asymptomatic testing was withdrawn in August-2022. Assessing the impact of this decision from data alone is challenging due to concurrent changes in infection prevention and control practices, community transmission rates, and a reduction in ascertainment rate from reduced testing. Computational modelling is an effective tool for estimating the impact of this change. METHODS: Using a computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in an English hospital we estimate the effectiveness of several asymptomatic testing strategies, namely; (1) Symptomatic testing of patients and HCWs, (2) testing of all patients on admission with/without repeat testing on days 3 and 5-7, and (3) symptomatic testing plus twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing with 70% compliance. We estimate the number of patient and HCW infections, HCW absences, number of tests, and tests per case averted or absence avoided, with differing community prevalence rates over a 12-week period. RESULTS: Testing asymptomatic patients on admission reduces the rate of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection by 8.1-21.5%. Additional testing at days 3 and 5-7 post admission does not significantly reduce infection rates. Twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing can reduce the proportion of HCWs infected by 1.0-4.4% and monthly absences by 0.4-0.8%. Testing asymptomatic patients repeatedly requires up to 5.5 million patient tests over the period, and twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing increases the total tests to almost 30 million. The most efficient patient testing strategy (in terms of tests required to prevent a single patient infection) was testing asymptomatic patients on admission across all prevalence levels. The least efficient was repeated testing of patients with twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing in a low prevalence scenario, and in all other prevalence levels symptomatic patient testing with regular HCW testing was least efficient. CONCLUSIONS: Testing patients on admission can reduce the rate of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection but there is little benefit of additional post-admission testing. Asymptomatic HCW testing has little incremental benefit for reducing patient cases at low prevalence but has a potential role at higher prevalence or with low community transmission. A full health-economic evaluation is required to determine the cost-effectiveness of these strategies.

Retrospective analysis of hospital electronic health records reveals unseen cases of acute hepatitis with unknown aetiology in adults in Oxfordshire.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of acute severe hepatitis of unknown aetiology (AS-Hep-UA) in children during 2022 was subsequently linked to infections with adenovirus-associated virus 2 and other 'helper viruses', including human adenovirus. It is possible that evidence of such an outbreak could be identified at a population level based on routine data captured by electronic health records (EHR). METHODS: We used anonymised EHR to collate retrospective data for all emergency presentations to Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in the UK, between 2016-2022, for all ages from 18 months and older. We investigated clinical characteristics and temporal distribution of presentations of acute hepatitis and of adenovirus infections based on laboratory data and clinical coding. We relaxed the stringent case definition adopted during the AS-Hep-UA to identify all cases of acute hepatitis with unknown aetiology (termed AHUA). We compared events within the outbreak period (defined as 1st Oct 2021-31 Aug 2022) to the rest of our study period. RESULTS: Over the study period, there were 903,433 acute presentations overall, of which 391 (0.04%) were classified as AHUA. AHUA episodes had significantly higher critical care admission rates (p < 0.0001, OR = 41.7, 95% CI:26.3-65.0) and longer inpatient admissions (p < 0.0001) compared with the rest of the patient population. During the outbreak period, significantly more adults (≥ 16 years) were diagnosed with AHUA (p < 0.0001, OR = 3.01, 95% CI: 2.20-4.12), and there were significantly more human adenovirus (HadV) infections in children (p < 0.001, OR = 1.78, 95% CI:1.27-2.47). There were also more HAdV tests performed during the outbreak (p < 0.0001, OR = 1.27, 95% CI:1.17-1.37). Among 3,707 individuals who were tested for HAdV, 179 (4.8%) were positive. However, there was no evidence of more acute hepatitis or increased severity of illness in HadV-positive compared to negative cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight an increase in AHUA in adults coinciding with the period of the outbreak in children, but not linked to documented HAdV infection. Tracking changes in routinely collected clinical data through EHR could be used to support outbreak surveillance.

Comparing indicators of disease severity among patients presenting to hospital for urinary tract infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, patients may have delayed seeking healthcare for urinary tract infections (UTIs). This could have resulted in more severe presentation to hospital and different antibiotic usage. Objectives: We explored evidence for such changes through existing national indicators of prescribing, and routine clinical data collected in the electronic health record (EHR). Methods: We carried out a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting to two UK hospitals for UTIs, comparing two indicators of disease severity on admission before and during the pandemic: intravenous (IV) antibiotic use, and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). We developed regression models to estimate the effect of the pandemic on each outcome, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity and index of multiple deprivation. Results: During the pandemic, patients were less likely to present to hospital for UTI with NEWS2 of 0 or 1 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52-0.85] compared with before, more likely to present with score 2 (aOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.18-1.94), whereas the likelihood of presenting with a NEWS2 of >2 remained the same (aOR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.87-1.29). We did not find evidence that this limited increase in disease severity resulted in changes to IV antibiotic use on admission (adjusted risk ratio: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.91-1.15). Conclusions: There may have been a small increase in disease severity at hospital presentation for UTI during the pandemic, which can be detected using routine data and not through national indicators of prescribing. Further research is required to validate these findings and understand whether routine data could support a more nuanced understanding of local antimicrobial prescribing practices.

Assessing the pulmonary vascular responsiveness to oxygen with proton MRI.

Ventilation-perfusion matching occurs passively and is also actively regulated through hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction (HPV). The extent of HPV activity in humans, particularly normal subjects, is uncertain. Current evaluation of HPV assesses changes in ventilation-perfusion relationships/pulmonary vascular resistance with hypoxia and is invasive, or unsuitable for patients because of safety concerns. We used a noninvasive imaging-based approach to quantify the pulmonary vascular response to oxygen as a metric of HPV by measuring perfusion changes between breathing 21% and 30%O2 using arterial spin labeling (ASL) MRI. We hypothesized that the differences between 21% and 30%O2 images reflecting HPV release would be 1) significantly greater than the differences without [Formula: see text] changes (e.g., 21-21% and 30-30%O2) and 2) negatively associated with ventilation-perfusion mismatch. Perfusion was quantified in the right lung in normoxia (baseline), after 15 min of 30% O2 breathing (hyperoxia) and 15 min normoxic recovery (recovery) in healthy subjects (7 M, 7 F; age = 41.4 ± 19.6 yr). Normalized, smoothed, and registered pairs of perfusion images were subtracted and the mean square difference (MSD) was calculated. Separately, regional alveolar ventilation and perfusion were quantified from specific ventilation, proton density, and ASL imaging; the spatial variance of ventilation-perfusion (σ2V̇a/Q̇) distributions was calculated. The O2-responsive MSD was reproducible (R2 = 0.94, P < 0.0001) and greater (0.16 ± 0.06, P < 0.0001) than that from subtracted images collected under the same [Formula: see text] (baseline = 0.09 ± 0.04, hyperoxia = 0.08 ± 0.04, recovery = 0.08 ± 0.03), which were not different from one another (P = 0.2). The O2-responsive MSD was correlated with σ2V̇a/Q̇ (R2 = 0.47, P = 0.007). These data suggest that active HPV optimizes ventilation-perfusion matching in normal subjects. This noninvasive approach could be applied to patients with different disease phenotypes to assess HPV and ventilation-perfusion mismatch.NEW & NOTEWORTHY We developed a new proton MRI method to noninvasively quantify the pulmonary vascular response to oxygen. Using a hyperoxic stimulus to release HPV, we quantified the resulting redistribution of perfusion. The differences between normoxic and hyperoxic images were greater than those between images without [Formula: see text] changes and negatively correlated with ventilation-perfusion mismatch. This suggests that active HPV optimizes ventilation-perfusion matching in normal subjects. This approach is suitable for assessing patients with different disease phenotypes.

Double testing with lateral flow antigen test devices for COVID-19: does a second test in quick succession add value?

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: We investigated if performing two lateral flow device (LFD) tests, LFD2 immediately after LFD1, could improve diagnostic sensitivity or specificity for detecting severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antigen. STUDY DESIGN: Individuals aged ≥16 years attending UK community testing sites (February-May 2021) performed two successive LFD tests and provided a nose-and-throat sample for a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. Using the PCR result as the reference diagnosis, we assessed whether improvements could be achieved in sensitivity (by counting a positive result in either LFD as a positive overall test result) or specificity (by using LFD2 as confirmatory test). RESULTS: Overall, 2231 participants were included with 159 (7 %) having a positive PCR test. Of 2223 participants who completed both LFD tests, LFD results were highly concordant both with each other and with PCR tests (>97 %). The proportion of discord LFD results decreased significantly over the study period. Combined LFD usage achieved a sensitivity of 68.6 %, versus 67.1 % for either LFD individually. The specificity increased from 99.5 % to 99.8 % when using LFD2 as confirmatory test. Observed increases in sensitivity and specificity were not statistically significant. Void results were recorded for 31 (1.4 %) LFD1s, 19 (0.9 %) LFD2s and 6 (0.3 %) combined LFD tests. CONCLUSIONS: LFD tests were highly reproducible even when they were performed by untrained users following only written instructions and without supervision. While performing two LFD tests of the same type in quick succession marginally increased sensitivity or specificity, statistically significant improvements were not detected in our study.

RT-PCR genotyping assays to identify SARS-CoV-2 variants in England in 2021: a design and retrospective evaluation study.

BACKGROUND: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is the gold standard diagnostic tool to identify and genetically characterise emerging pathogen mutations (variants), but cost, capacity, and timeliness limit its use when large populations need rapidly assessing. We assessed the potential of genotyping assays to provide accurate and timely variant information at scale by retrospectively examining surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 variants in England between March and September, 2021, when genotyping assays were used widely for variant detection. METHODS: We chose a panel of four RT-PCR genotyping assays to detect circulating variants of SARS-COV-2 in England and developed a decision algorithm to assign a probable SARS-CoV-2 variant to samples using the assay results. We extracted surveillance data from the UK Health Security Agency databases for 115 934 SARS-CoV-2-positive samples (March 1-Sept 6, 2021) when variant information was available from both genotyping and WGS. By comparing the genotyping and WGS variant result, we calculated accuracy metrics (ie, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value [PPV]) and the time difference between the sample collection date and the availability of variant information. We assessed the number of samples with a variant assigned from genotyping or WGS, or both, over time. FINDINGS: Genotyping and an initial decision algorithm (April 10-May 11, 2021 data) were accurate for key variant assignment: sensitivities and PPVs were 0·99 (95% CI 0·99-0·99) for the alpha, 1·00 (1·00-1·00) for the beta, and 0·91 (0·80-1·00) for the gamma variants; specificities were 0·97 (0·96-0·98), 1·00 (1·00-1·00), and 1·00 (1·00-1·00), respectively. A subsequent decision algorithm over a longer time period (May 27-Sept 6, 2021 data) remained accurate for key variant assignment: sensitivities were 0·91 (95% CI 0·74-1·00) for the beta, 0·98 (0·98-0·99) for the delta, and 0·93 (0·81-1·00) for the gamma variants; specificities were 1·00 (1·00-1·00), 0·96 (0·96-0·97), and 1·00 (1·00-1·00), respectively; and PPVs were 0·83 (0·62-1·00), 1·00 (1·00-1·00), and 0·78 (0·59-0·97), respectively. Genotyping produced variant information a median of 3 days (IQR 2-4) after the sample collection date, which was faster than with WGS (9 days [8-11]). The flexibility of genotyping enabled a nine-times increase in the quantity of samples tested for variants by this method (from 5000 to 45 000). INTERPRETATION: RT-PCR genotyping assays are suitable for high-throughput variant surveillance and could complement WGS, enabling larger scale testing for known variants and timelier results, with important implications for effective public health responses and disease control globally, especially in settings with low WGS capacity. However, the choice of panels of RT-PCR assays is highly dependent on database information on circulating variants generated by WGS, which could limit the use of genotyping assays when new variants are emerging and spreading rapidly. FUNDING: UK Health Security Agency and National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response.

Effect of second booster vaccinations and prior infection against SARS-CoV-2 in the UK SIREN healthcare worker cohort.

Background: The protection of fourth dose mRNA vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 is relevant to current global policy decisions regarding ongoing booster roll-out. We aimed to estimate the effect of fourth dose vaccination, prior infection, and duration of PCR positivity in a highly-vaccinated and largely prior-COVID-19 infected cohort of UK healthcare workers. Methods: Participants underwent fortnightly PCR and regular antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 and completed symptoms questionnaires. A multi-state model was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection from a fourth dose compared to a waned third dose, with protection from prior infection and duration of PCR positivity jointly estimated. Findings: 1298 infections were detected among 9560 individuals under active follow-up between September 2022 and March 2023. Compared to a waned third dose, fourth dose VE was 13.1% (95% CI 0.9 to 23.8) overall; 24.0% (95% CI 8.5 to 36.8) in the first 2 months post-vaccination, reducing to 10.3% (95% CI -11.4 to 27.8) and 1.7% (95% CI -17.0 to 17.4) at 2-4 and 4-6 months, respectively. Relative to an infection >2 years ago and controlling for vaccination, 63.6% (95% CI 46.9 to 75.0) and 29.1% (95% CI 3.8 to 43.1) greater protection against infection was estimated for an infection within the past 0-6, and 6-12 months, respectively. A fourth dose was associated with greater protection against asymptomatic infection than symptomatic infection, whilst prior infection independently provided more protection against symptomatic infection, particularly if the infection had occurred within the previous 6 months. Duration of PCR positivity was significantly lower for asymptomatic compared to symptomatic infection. Interpretation: Despite rapid waning of protection, vaccine boosters remain an important tool in responding to the dynamic COVID-19 landscape; boosting population immunity in advance of periods of anticipated pressure, such as surging infection rates or emerging variants of concern. Funding: UK Health Security Agency, Medical Research Council, NIHR HPRU Oxford, Bristol, and others.

Rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 by lateral flow assay: A field evaluation of self- and professional testing at UK community testing sites.

BACKGROUND: The advent of lateral flow devices (LFDs) for SARS-CoV-2 detection enabled widespread use of rapid self-tests during the pandemic. While self-testing using LFDs is now common, whether self-testing provides comparable performance to professional testing was a key question that remained important for pandemic planning. METHODS: Three prospective multi-centre studies were conducted to compare the performance of self- and professional testing using LFDs. Participants tested themselves or were tested by trained (professional) testers at community testing sites in the UK. Corresponding qRT-PCR test results served as reference standard. The performance of Innova, Orient Gene and SureScreen LFDs by users (self) and professional testers was assessed in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and kit failure (void) rates. Impact of age, sex and symptom status was analysed using logistic regression modelling. RESULTS: 16,617 participants provided paired tests, of which 15,418 were included in the analysis. Self-testing with Innova, Orient Gene or SureScreen LFDs achieved sensitivities of 50 %, 53 % or 72 %, respectively, compared to qRT-PCR. Self and professional LFD testing showed no statistically different sensitivity with respect to corresponding qRT-PCR testing. Specificity was consistently equal to or higher than 99 %. Sex and age had no or only marginal impact on LFD performance while sensitivity was significantly higher for symptomatic individuals. Sensitivity of LFDs increased strongly to up to 90 % with higher levels of viral RNA measured by qRT-PCR. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support SARS-CoV-2 self-testing with LFDs, especially for the detection of individuals whose qRT-PCR tests showed high viral concentrations.

The plasmidome associated with Gram-negative bloodstream infections: A large-scale observational study using complete plasmid assemblies.

Plasmids carry genes conferring antimicrobial resistance and other clinically important traits, and contribute to the rapid dissemination of such genes. Previous studies using complete plasmid assemblies, which are essential for reliable inference, have been small and/or limited to plasmids carrying antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs). In this study, we sequenced 1,880 complete plasmids from 738 isolates from bloodstream infections in Oxfordshire, UK. The bacteria had been originally isolated in 2009 (194 isolates) and 2018 (368 isolates), plus a stratified selection from intervening years (176 isolates). We demonstrate that plasmids are largely, but not entirely, constrained to a single host species, although there is substantial overlap between species of plasmid gene-repertoire. Most ARGs are carried by a relatively small number of plasmid groups with biological features that are predictable. Plasmids carrying ARGs (including those encoding carbapenemases) share a putative 'backbone' of core genes with those carrying no such genes. These findings suggest that future surveillance should, in addition to tracking plasmids currently associated with clinically important genes, focus on identifying and monitoring the dissemination of high-risk plasmid groups with the potential to rapidly acquire and disseminate these genes.

Discordance between different bioinformatic methods for identifying resistance genes from short-read genomic data, with a focus on Escherichia coli.

Several bioinformatics genotyping algorithms are now commonly used to characterize antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gene profiles in whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data, with a view to understanding AMR epidemiology and developing resistance prediction workflows using WGS in clinical settings. Accurately evaluating AMR in Enterobacterales, particularly Escherichia coli, is of major importance, because this is a common pathogen. However, robust comparisons of different genotyping approaches on relevant simulated and large real-life WGS datasets are lacking. Here, we used both simulated datasets and a large set of real E. coli WGS data (n=1818 isolates) to systematically investigate genotyping methods in greater detail. Simulated constructs and real sequences were processed using four different bioinformatic programs (ABRicate, ARIBA, KmerResistance and SRST2, run with the ResFinder database) and their outputs compared. For simulation tests where 3079 AMR gene variants were inserted into random sequence constructs, KmerResistance was correct for 3076 (99.9 %) simulations, ABRicate for 3054 (99.2 %), ARIBA for 2783 (90.4 %) and SRST2 for 2108 (68.5 %). For simulation tests where two closely related gene variants were inserted into random sequence constructs, KmerResistance identified the correct alleles in 35 338/46 318 (76.3 %) simulations, ABRicate identified them in 11 842/46 318 (25.6 %) simulations, ARIBA identified them in 1679/46 318 (3.6 %) simulations and SRST2 identified them in 2000/46 318 (4.3 %) simulations. In real data, across all methods, 1392/1818 (76 %) isolates had discrepant allele calls for at least 1 gene. In addition to highlighting areas for improvement in challenging scenarios, (e.g. identification of AMR genes at <10× coverage, identifying multiple closely related AMR genes present in the same sample), our evaluations identified some more systematic errors that could be readily soluble, such as repeated misclassification (i.e. naming) of genes as shorter variants of the same gene present within the reference resistance gene database. Such naming errors accounted for at least 2530/4321 (59 %) of the discrepancies seen in real data. Moreover, many of the remaining discrepancies were likely 'artefactual', with reporting of cut-off differences accounting for at least 1430/4321 (33 %) discrepants. Whilst we found that comparing outputs generated by running multiple algorithms on the same dataset could identify and resolve these algorithmic artefacts, the results of our evaluations emphasize the need for developing new and more robust genotyping algorithms to further improve accuracy and performance.