Modelling ground thermal regime in bordering (dis)continuous permafrost environments.

Permafrost controls geomorphological dynamics in maritime Antarctic ecosystems. Here, we analyze and model ground thermal regime in bordering conditions between continuous and discontinuous permafrost to better understand its relationship with the timing of glacial retreat. In February 2017, a transect including 10 sites for monitoring ground temperatures was installed in the eastern fringe of Byers Peninsula (Livingston Island, northern Antarctic Peninsula), together with one station recording air temperatures and snow thickness. The sites were selected following the Mid-Late Holocene deglaciation of the area at a distance ranging from 0.30 to 3.15 km from the current Rotch Dome glacier front. The transect provided data on the effects of topography, snow cover and the timing of ice-free exposure, on the ground thermal regime. From February 2017 to February 2019, the mean annual air temperature was -2.0 °C, which was >0.5 °C higher than 1986-2015 average in the Western Antarctic Peninsula region. Mean annual ground temperature at 10 cm depth varied between 0.3 and -1.1 °C, similar to the modelled Temperatures on the Top of the Permafrost (TTOP) that ranged from 0.06 ±â€¯0.08 °C to -1.33 ±â€¯0.07 °C. The positive average temperatures at the warmest site were related to the long-lasting presence of snow which favoured warmer ground temperatures and may trigger permafrost degradation. The role of other factors (topography, and timing of the deglaciation) explained intersite differences, but the overall effect was not as strong as snow cover.

Permafrost table temperature and active layer thickness variability on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 2004-2021.

Climate change and its impacts on sensitive polar ecosystems are relatively little studied in Antarctic regions. Permafrost and active layer changes over time in periglacial regions of the world are important indicators of climate variability. These changes (e. g. permafrost degradation, increasing of the active layer thickness) can have a significant impact on Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. The study site (AWS-JGM) is located on the Ulu Peninsula in the north of James Ross Island. Ground temperatures at depths of 5, 50, and 75 cm have been measured at the site since 2011, while air temperature began to be measured in 2004. The main objective is to evaluate the year-to-year variability of the reconstructed temperature of the top of the permafrost table and the active layer thickness (ALT) since 2004 based on air temperature data using TTOP and Stefan models, respectively. The models were verified against direct observations from a reference period 2011/12-2020/21 showing a strong correlation of 0.95 (RMSE = 0.52) and 0.84 (RMSE = 3.54) for TTOP and Stefan models, respectively. The reconstructed average temperature of the permafrost table for the period 2004/05-2020/21 was -5.8 °C with a trend of -0.1 °C/decade, while the average air temperature reached -6.6 °C with a trend of 0.6 °C/decade. Air temperatures did not have an increasing trend throughout the period, but in the first part of the period (2004/05-2010/11) showed a decreasing tendency (-1.3 °C/decade). In the period 2011/12-2020/21, it was a warming of 1.9 °C/decade. The average modelled ALT for the period 2004/05-2020/21 reached a value of 60cm with a trend of -1.6 cm/decade. Both models were found to provide reliable results, and thus they significantly expand the information about the permafrost and ALT, which is necessary for a better understanding of their spatiotemporal variability and the impact of climate change on the cryosphere.

Active layer monitoring at CALM-S site near J.G.Mendel Station, James Ross Island, eastern Antarctic Peninsula.

The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring - South (CALM-S) site was established in February 2014 on James Ross Island as the first CALM-S site in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula region. The site, located near Johann Gregor Mendel Station, is labelled CALM-S JGM. The grid area is gently sloped (<3°) and has an elevation of between 8 and 11ma.s.l. The lithology of the site consists of the muddy sediments of Holocene marine terrace and clayey-sandy Cretaceous sedimentary rocks, which significantly affect the texture, moisture content, and physical parameters of the ground within the grid. Our objective was to study seasonal and interannual variability of the active layer depth and thermal regime at the CALM-S site, and at two ground temperature measurement profiles, AWS-JGM and AWS-CALM, located in the grid. The mean air temperature in the period March 2013 to February 2016 reached -7.2°C. The mean ground temperature decreased with depth from -5.3°C to -5.4°C at 5cm, to -5.5°C to -5.9°C at 200cm. Active layer thickness was significantly higher at AWS-CALM and ranged between 86cm (2014/15) and 87cm (2015/16), while at AWS-JGM it reached only 51cm (2013/14) to 65cm (2015/16). The mean probed active layer depth increased from 66.4cm in 2013/14 to 78.0cm in 2014/15. Large differences were observed when comparing the minimum (51cm to 59cm) and maximum (100cm to 113cm) probed depths. The distribution of the active layer depth and differences in the thermal regime of the uppermost layer of permafrost at CALM-S JGM clearly show the effect of different lithological properties on the two lithologically distinct parts of the grid.