The discovery of novel and potent indazole NLRP3 inhibitors enabled by DNA-encoded library screening.

NLRP3 is an intracellular sensor protein that detects a broad range of danger signals and environmental insults. Its activation results in a protective pro-inflammatory response designed to impair pathogens and repair tissue damage via the formation of the NLRP3 inflammasome. Assembly of the NLRP3 inflammasome leads to caspase 1-dependent secretory release of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1ß and IL-18 as well as to gasdermin d-mediated pyroptotic cell death. Herein, we describe the discovery of a novel indazole series of high affinity, reversible inhibitors of NLRP3 activation through screening of DNA-encoded libraries and the potent lead compound 3 (BAL-0028, IC50 = 25 nM) that was identified directly from the screen. SPR studies showed that compound 3 binds tightly (KD range 104-123 nM) to the NACHT domain of NLRP3. A CADD analysis of the interaction of compound 3 with the NLRP3 NACHT domain proposes a binding site that is distinct from those of ADP and MCC950 and includes specific site interactions. We anticipate that compound 3 (BAL-0028) and other members of this novel indazole class of neutral inhibitors will demonstrate significantly different physical, biochemical, and biological properties compared to NLRP3 inhibitors previously identified.

Abdominal US in Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome Associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS).

Background Children with pediatric inflammatory syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS), also known as multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, present with abdominal pain among other nonspecific symptoms. Although initial imaging features of PIMS-TS have been reported, the duration of sonographic features remains unknown. Purpose To describe the abdominal US features of PIMS-TS at initial presentation and follow-up. Materials and Methods A retrospective review of children and young adults presenting with clinical features suspicious for PIMS-TS between April 2020 and June 2021 was carried out. US features were documented and reviewed at initial presentation and follow-up. Descriptive statistics were used and interobserver variability was calculated. Results Of 140 children and young adults presenting with suspected PIMS-TS, 120 had confirmed PIMS-TS (median age, 9 years; interquartile range, 7-12 years; 65 male patients) and 102 underwent abdominal US at presentation. PIMS-TS was present as a single abnormality in 109 of the 120 patients (91%) and abdominal symptoms were present in 104 of the 109 (95%). US examinations were abnormal in 86 of 102 patients (84%), with ascites being the most common abnormality in 65 (64%; 95% CI: 54, 73). Bowel wall thickening was present at US in 14 of the 102 patients (14%; 95% CI: 7, 20) and mesenteric inflammation was present in 16 (16%; 95% CI: 9, 23); all of these patients presented with abdominal symptoms. Among the patients with bowel wall thickening, the distal and terminal ileum were most involved (eight of 14 patients, 57%). Abdominal symptoms decreased to seven of 56 patients (13%) in those followed up at 6 months. Thirty-eight patients underwent follow-up US, and the presence of bowel inflammation had decreased to three of 27 patients (11%; 95% CI: -1, 23) in those followed up for less than 2 months and 0 of 17 (0%) in those followed up for more than 2 months. Conclusion Of 102 patients with pediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 who underwent US at presentation, 14 (14%) had abdominal US findings of bowel inflammation and 16 (16%) had mesenteric edema. All US abnormalities resolved after 2 months. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by van Rijn and Pajkrt in this issue.

Clinical impact of primary tumour 123ImIBG response to induction chemotherapy in children with high-risk neuroblastoma.

BACKGROUND: More than 50% children with high-risk neuroblastoma (HR-NBL) experience disease progression, which we hypothesise is due to non-response of primary tumour to treatment. Current imaging techniques are unable to characterise response in primary tumour (necrotic versus viable tissue) at diagnosis or follow-up. OBJECTIVES: Compare clinico-histological characteristics between primary 123ImIBG-avid tumours that became entirely 123ImIBG-non-avid (responders) after induction chemotherapy (IC) versus primary 123ImIBG-avid tumour that remained 123ImIBG-avid (non-responders). METHODS: Retrospective review of clinico-radiological data of children diagnosed with 123ImIBG-avid HR-NBL at our centre (2005-2016). Patients received Rapid COJEC IC and two additional courses of TVD if metastatic response was inadequate. Primary tumour 123ImIBG response was assessed qualitatively as positive, negative or intermediate at diagnosis and after IC. Post-surgical histopathology slices were marked considering percentage of viable tissue. RESULTS: Sixteen of 61 patients showed complete primary tumour 123ImIBG response, 20 partial response, while 25 no response. There was no statistically significant difference between clinical demographics of complete responders and group of non- or partial responders. Mean percentage of viable tumour cells was higher in non-responders than in complete responders (44.6% vs 20.6%; p = 0.05). Five-year EFS was significantly higher in complete responders than non-responders (43 ± 15% vs 7 ± 6%; p < 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: 123ImIBG response in primary HR-NBL correlates with amount of necrotic tissue, skeletal metastatic 123ImIBG response and outcome. An entirely 123ImIBG non-avid tumour can still harbour viable tumour cells. Therefore, our findings do not support utility of primary tumour 123ImIBG response in decision making regarding residual tumour surgery. Combining both, primary and metastatic 123ImIBG response will improve interpretability of clinical trial results.

Comparison Between Diffusion-Weighted MRI and 123 I-mIBG Uptake in Primary High-Risk Neuroblastoma.

BACKGROUND: High-risk neuroblastoma (HR-NB) has a variable response to preoperative chemotherapy. It is not possible to differentiate viable vs. nonviable residual tumor before surgery. PURPOSE: To explore the association between apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values from diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI), 123 I-meta-iodobenzyl-guanidine (123 I-mIBG) uptake, and histology before and after chemotherapy. STUDY TYPE: Retrospective. SUBJECTS: Forty patients with HR-NB. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 1.5T axial DW-MRI (b = 0,1000 s/mm2 ) and T2 -weighted sequences. 123 I-mIBG scintigraphy planar imaging (all patients), with additional 123 I-mIBG single-photon emission computed tomography / computerized tomography (SPECT/CT) imaging (15 patients). ASSESSMENT: ADC maps and 123 I-mIBG SPECT/CT images were coregistered to the T2 -weighted images. 123 I-mIBG uptake was normalized with a tumor-to-liver count ratio (TLCR). Regions of interest (ROIs) for primary tumor volume and different intratumor subregions were drawn. The lower quartile ADC value (ADC25prc ) was used over the entire tumor volume and the overall level of 123 I-mIBG uptake was graded into avidity groups. STATISTICAL TESTS: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and linear regression were used to compare ADC and MIBG values before and after treatment. Threshold values to classify tumors as viable/necrotic were obtained using ROC analysis of ADC and TLCR values. RESULTS: No significant difference in whole-tumor ADC25prc values were found between different 123 I-mIBG avidity groups pre- (P = 0.31) or postchemotherapy (P = 0.35). In the "intratumor" analysis, 5/15 patients (prechemotherapy) and 0/14 patients (postchemotherapy) showed a significant correlation between ADC and TLCR values (P < 0.05). Increased tumor shrinkage was associated with lower pretreatment tumor ADC25prc values (P < 0.001); no association was found with pretreatment 123 I-mIBG avidity (P = 0.17). Completely nonviable tumors had significantly lower postchemotherapy ADC25prc values than tumors with >10% viable tumor (P < 0.05). Both pre- and posttreatment TLCR values were significantly higher in patients with >50% viable tumor than those with 10-50% viable tumor (P < 0.05). DATA CONCLUSION: 123 I-mIBG avidity and ADC values are complementary noninvasive biomarkers of therapeutic response in HR-NB. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 4. TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 3.

Nonbisphosphonate inhibitors of Plasmodium falciparum FPPS/GGPPS.

A series of novel thiazole-containing amides were synthesized. A structure-activity relationship study of these compounds led to the identification of potent and selective PfFPPS/GGPPS inhibitors with good in vitro ADME profiles. The most promising candidate molecules were progressed to mouse in vivo PK studies and demonstrated adequate free drug exposure to warrant further investigation.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound of the pediatric bowel.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) has emerged as a valuable modality for bowel imaging in adults and children. CEUS enables visualization of the perfusion of the bowel wall and of the associated mesentery in healthy and disease states. In addition, CEUS images can be used to make quantitative measurements of contrast kinetics, allowing for objective assessment of bowel wall enhancement. Bowel CEUS is commonly applied to evaluate inflammatory bowel disease and to monitor treatment response. It has also been applied to evaluate necrotizing enterocolitis, intussusception, appendicitis and epiploic appendagitis, although experience with these applications is more limited. In this review article, we present the current experience using CEUS to evaluate the pediatric bowel with emphasis on inflammatory bowel disease, extrapolating the established experience from adult studies. We also discuss emerging applications of CEUS as an adjunct or problem-solving tool for evaluating bowel perfusion.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound of the small organs in children.

In pediatric and adult populations, intravenous contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) remains off-label for imaging of organs other than the liver and heart. This limited scope inhibits potential benefits of the new modality from a more widespread utilization. Yet, CEUS is potentially useful for imaging small organs such as the thyroid gland, lymph nodes, testes, ovaries and uterus, with all having locations and vasculature favorable for this type of examination. In the adult population, the utility of CEUS has been demonstrated in a growing number of studies for the evaluation of these small organs. The aim of this article is to present a review of pediatric CEUS of the thyroid gland, lymph nodes, testes, ovaries and uterus as well as to draw from the adult literature indications for possible applications in children.

European Federation of Societies for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology (EFSUMB): An Update on the Pediatric CEUS Registry on Behalf of the "EFSUMB Pediatric CEUS Registry Working Group".

The European Federation of Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology (EFSUMB) created the "EFSUMB Pediatric Registry" (EFSUMB EPR) with the purpose of collecting data regarding the intravenous application of pediatric contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS). The primary aim was to document the current clinical practice and usefulness of the technique and secondarily to assess CEUS safety in children. We issue the preliminary results of this database and examine the overall practice of CEUS in children in Europe.

Mortality events resulting from Australia's catastrophic fires threaten aquatic biota.

The consequences of the 2019-2020 bushfires in Australia were also devastating for the aquatic biota. Following abnormal rainfall events in burnt areas, widespread mortality events including fish and invertebrates were recorded in estuarine and freshwater systems. Such negative impacts on aquatic resources highlight the need to include these ecosystems in bushfire recovery plans. Management should prioritise catchments at higher risks of further negative impacts and research must be conducted to understand the efficacy of actions post-fire.

Imaging assessment of children presenting with suspected or known juvenile idiopathic arthritis: ESSR-ESPR points to consider.

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is the most common paediatric rheumatic disease. It represents a group of heterogenous inflammatory disorders with unknown origin and is a diagnosis of exclusion in which imaging plays an important role. JIA is defined as arthritis of one or more joints that begins before the age of 16 years, persists for more than 6 weeks and is of unknown aetiology and pathophysiology. The clinical goal is early suppression of inflammation to prevent irreversible joint damage which has shifted the emphasis from detecting established joint damage to proactively detecting inflammatory change. This drives the need for imaging techniques that are more sensitive than conventional radiography in the evaluation of inflammatory processes as well as early osteochondral change. Physical examination has limited reliability, even if performed by an experienced clinician, emphasising the importance of imaging to aid in clinical decision-making. On behalf of the European Society of Musculoskeletal Radiology (ESSR) arthritis subcommittee and the European Society of Paediatric Radiology (ESPR) musculoskeletal imaging taskforce, based on literature review and/or expert opinion, we discuss paediatric-specific imaging characteristics of the most commonly involved, in literature best documented and clinically important joints in JIA, namely the temporomandibular joints (TMJs), spine, sacroiliac (SI) joints, wrists, hips and knees, followed by a clinically applicable point to consider for each joint. We will also touch upon controversies in the current literature that remain to be resolved with ongoing research. KEY POINTS: • Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is the most common chronic paediatric rheumatic disease and, in JIA imaging, is increasingly important to aid in clinical decision-making. • Conventional radiographs have a lower sensitivity and specificity for detection of disease activity and early destructive change, as compared to MRI or ultrasound. Nonetheless, radiography remains important, particularly in narrowing the differential diagnosis and evaluating growth disturbances. • Mainly in peripheral joints, ultrasound can be helpful for assessment of inflammation and guiding joint injections. In JIA, MRI is the most validated technique. MRI should be considered as the modality of choice to assess the axial skeleton or where the clinical presentation overlaps with JIA.

Predicting developmental dysplasia of the hip in at-risk newborns.

BACKGROUND: The development of developmental dysplasia of the hip can be attributed to several risk factors and often in combination with each other. When predicting the likelihood of developing this condition, clinicians tend to over and underestimate its likelihood of occurring. Therefore, the study aim is to determine among at-risk newborns how to best predict developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) within 8 weeks post-partum. METHODS: Prospective cohort study in secondary care. Patient population included newborns at-risk for DDH - we assessed 13,276 consecutive newborns for the presence of DDH risk factors. Only newborns with at least one of the predefined risk factors and those showing an abnormal examination of the hip were enrolled (n = 2191). For the development of a risk prediction model we considered 9 candidate predictors and other variables readily available at childbirth. The main outcome measure was ultrasonography at a median age of 8 weeks using consensus diagnostic criteria; outcome assessors were blinded. RESULTS: The risk model includes four predictors: female sex (OR = 5.6; 95% CI: 2.9-10.9; P <  0.001); first degree family history of DDH (OR = 4.5; 95% CI: 2.3-9.0; P <  0.001), birthweight > 4000 g (OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 0.6-4.2; P = 0.34), and abnormal examination of hip (OR = 58.8; 95% CI: 31.9, 108.5; P <  0.001). This model demonstrated excellent discrimination (C statistic = 0.9) and calibration of observed and predicted risk (P = 0.35). A model without the variable 'hip examination' demonstrated similar performance. CONCLUSION: The risk model quantifies absolute risk of DDH within 8 weeks postpartum in at-risk newborns. Based on clinical variables readily available at the point of childbirth, the model will enhance parental counselling and could serve as the basis for real time decisions prior to discharge from maternity wards.

How to use abdominal X-rays in preterm infants suspected of developing necrotising enterocolitis.

Necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) in preterm babies is a serious gastrointestinal emergency with potentially devastating consequences. Prompt and accurate diagnosis continues to be a challenge for health professionals. Early identification of clinical warning signs is extremely important, but the diagnosis relies heavily on the interpretation of abdominal radiographs. Postgraduate training of paediatricians and neonatologists in neonatal abdominal radiography is scarce, and there is variability of radiological input to neonatal services. Lack of a standardised approach and descriptive terminology for interpretation may result in inadequate communication between clinical and surgical teams, inaccurate diagnosis, inappropriate treatment, and unnecessary cessation of feeds and transfers to surgical units. This paper offers a guide designed for the doctor who on a busy night shift needs to interpret an abdominal radiograph and decide on a differential diagnosis of NEC in a preterm baby. It helps to provide structure and standardisation to interpretation of radiological signs using a comprehensive but simple method to support the clinical diagnosis. Our aim is to enhance the correct diagnosis of NEC.

Whole-body MRI for staging and interim response monitoring in paediatric and adolescent Hodgkin's lymphoma: a comparison with multi-modality reference standard including 18F-FDG-PET-CT.

OBJECTIVES: To prospectively investigate concordance between whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) and a composite reference standard for initial staging and interim response evaluation in paediatric and adolescent Hodgkin's lymphoma. METHODS: Fifty patients (32 male, age range 6-19 years) underwent WB-MRI and standard investigations, including 18F-FDG-PET-CT at diagnosis and following 2-3 chemotherapy cycles. Two radiologists in consensus interpreted WB-MRI using prespecified definitions of disease positivity. A third radiologist reviewed a subset of staging WB-MRIs (n = 38) separately to test for interobserver agreement. A multidisciplinary team derived a primary reference standard using all available imaging/clinical investigations. Subsequently, a second multidisciplinary panel rereviewed all imaging with long-term follow-up data to derive an enhanced reference standard. Interobserver agreement for WB-MRI reads was tested using kappa statistics. Concordance for correct classification of all disease sites, true positive rate (TPR), false positive rate (FPR) and kappa for staging/response agreement were calculated for WB-MRI. RESULTS: There was discordance for full stage in 74% (95% CI 61.9-83.9%) and 44% (32.0-56.6%) of patients against the primary and enhanced reference standards, respectively. Against the enhanced reference standard, the WB-MRI TPR, FPR and kappa were 91%, 1% and 0.93 (0.90-0.96) for nodal disease and 79%, < 1% and 0.86 (0.77-0.95) for extra-nodal disease. WB-MRI response classification was correct in 25/38 evaluable patients (66%), underestimating response in 26% (kappa 0.30, 95% CI 0.04-0.57). There was a good agreement for nodal (kappa 0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.84) and extra-nodal staging (kappa 0.60, 95% CI 0.41-0.78) between WB-MRI reads CONCLUSIONS: WB-MRI has reasonable accuracy for nodal and extra-nodal staging but is discordant with standard imaging in a substantial minority of patients, and tends to underestimate disease response. KEY POINTS: • This prospective single-centre study showed discordance for full patient staging of 44% between WB-MRI and a multi-modality reference standard in paediatric and adolescent Hodgkin's lymphoma. • WB-MRI underestimates interim disease response in paediatric and adolescent Hodgkin's lymphoma. • WB-MRI shows promise in paediatric and adolescent Hodgkin's lymphoma but currently cannot replace conventional staging pathways including 18F-FDG-PET-CT.

Acoustic shadowing in pediatric kidney stone ultrasound: a retrospective study with non-enhanced computed tomography as reference standard.

BACKGROUND: The usefulness of acoustic shadowing as a feature of pediatric kidney stone ultrasound (US) may be underestimated. OBJECTIVE: The hypothesis was that the majority of stones in children have acoustic shadowing and that its specificity is high (>90%) in pediatric kidney stones. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our retrospective observational study included children who had undergone abdominal non-enhanced computed tomography (CT) for kidney stones in a pediatric renal stone referral centre between 2015 and 2016. US examinations prior to CT were retrospectively assessed for US features such as acoustic shadowing, twinkle artifact and stone size. These features were compared to CT as reference standard. RESULTS: Thirty-one patients (median age: 13 years, range: 1-17 years) with 77 suspected kidney stones were included. The median stone size was 5 mm (interquartile range [IQR]: 5 mm). For acoustic shadowing, sensitivity was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI] 56-80%) and specificity was 100% (95% CI 56-100%). All kidney stones with a diameter ≥9 mm demonstrated shadowing. Sensitivity for twinkle artifact was 88% (95% CI 72-96%), but specificity for twinkle artifact could not be calculated due to the lack of true negatives. All false-positive stones on US demonstrated twinkle artifact, but none showed shadowing. CONCLUSION: Acoustic shadowing was demonstrated in the majority of pediatric kidney stones. Specificity was high, but this was not significant. Twinkle artifact is a sensitive US tool for detecting (pediatric) kidney calculi, but with a risk of false-positive findings.

Whole-body magnetic resonance imaging in paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma - evaluation of quantitative magnetic resonance metrics for nodal staging.

BACKGROUND: Whole-body MRI is used for staging paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma, commonly using size thresholds, which fail to detect disease in normal-size lymph nodes. OBJECTIVE: To investigate quantitative whole-body MRI metrics for nodal characterisation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-seven children with Hodgkin lymphoma underwent 1.5-tesla (T) whole-body MRI using short tau inversion recovery (STIR) half-Fourier-acquisition single-shot turbo-spin-echo and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). 18Flourine-2-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/CT was acquired as the reference standard. Two independent readers assessed 11 nodal sites. The readers measured short-axis-diameter, apparent diffusion coefficient, (ADC) and normalised T2-signal intensity of the largest lymph node at each site. We used receiver operating characteristics (ROC)/area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis for each MRI metric and derived sensitivity and specificity for nodes with short-axis diameter ≥10 mm. Sub-analysis of sensitivity and specificity was performed with application of ADC cut-off values (<0.77, <1.15 and <1.79×10-3 mm2 s-1) to 5- to 9-mm nodes. RESULTS: ROC/AUC values for reader 1/reader 2 were 0.80/0.80 and 0.81/0.81 for short-axis-diameter measured using DWI and STIR half-Fourier-acquisition single-shot turbo spin echo, respectively; 0.67/0.72 for normalised T2 signal intensity and 0.74/0.67 for ADC. Sensitivity and specificity for a short-axis diameter ≥10 mm were 84.2% and 66.7% for Reader 1 and 82.9% and 68.9% for Reader 2. Applying a short-axis-diameter ≥10-mm threshold followed by ADC cut-offs to normal-size 5- to 9-mm nodes resulted in sensitivity and specificity for Reader 1 of 88.8% and 60%, 92.1% and 56.7%, and 100% and 16.7%; and for Reader 2, 86.1% and 67.2%, 95.3% and 65.6%, and 100% and 19.7%; and ADC thresholds of <0.77, <1.15, and <1.79×10-3 mm2 s-1, respectively. CONCLUSION: Nodal size measurement provides the best single classifier for nodal disease status in paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma. Combined short-axis diameter and ADC thresholds marginally improve sensitivity and drop specificity compared with size classification alone.

Imaging features of extranodal involvement in paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma.

Detecting extranodal disease in paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma is of great importance for both treatment and prognosis. Different imaging techniques can be used to identify these extranodal sites. This pictorial essay provides an overview of imaging features of extranodal disease manifestation in paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma.

Bone age for chronological age determination - statement of the European Society of Paediatric Radiology musculoskeletal task force group.

Radiologists are sometimes requested to determine a person's age based on skeletal radiographs. Critical reviews demonstrate that this cannot be done with sufficient accuracy with existing methods.

Introduction of a novel magnetic resonance imaging-based scoring system for assessing disease activity in children with juvenile dermatomyositis.

Objectives: We aimed to develop and assess the reliability of a novel MRI-based scoring system for reporting the severity of MRI findings in children with suspected JDM. Methods: Nine consultant paediatric radiologists independently assessed and scored 40 axial and 30 coronal thigh MR images of children with suspected JDM on two occasions using the juvenile dermatomyositis magnetic resonance Imaging Score (JIS). JIS was calculated for both reads for each plane and each limb, with possible scores ranging from 0 (normal) to 100 (severe). Inter- and intraobserver agreement was calculated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and two- and one-way random effects models, respectively. Bland-Altman plots of the difference in JIS against the average JIS were also produced for each rater. Results: Overall, the interobserver reliability and agreement was good-for axial images, JIS ranged from 46.8 to 61.0 [ICC = 0.88 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.92)] for the left limb and 47.9-61.4 [ICC = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.92)] for the right limb. For coronal images, JIS ranged from 56.7 to 65.1 [ICC = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.95)] for the left limb and 55.7 to 66.8 [ICC = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.94)] for the right limb. The intraobserver reliability and agreement was good, with ICC ranging from 0.90 to 0.94. Conclusion: JIS is a semi-objective scoring system with potential to serve as a reliable biomarker of disease severity and response to therapeutic interventions in children with JDM.

Carbazole-containing amides and ureas: Discovery of cryptochrome modulators as antihyperglycemic agents.

A series of novel carbazole-containing amides and ureas were synthesized. A structure-activity relationship study of these compounds led to the identification of potent cryptochrome modulators. Based on the desired pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic parameters and the results of efficacy studies in db/db mice, compound 50 was selected for further profiling.

Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes.

Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.