SpatialWavePredict: a tutorial-based primer and toolbox for forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic modeling framework.

BACKGROUND: Dynamical mathematical models defined by a system of differential equations are typically not easily accessible to non-experts. However, forecasts based on these types of models can help gain insights into the mechanisms driving the process and may outcompete simpler phenomenological growth models. Here we introduce a friendly toolbox, SpatialWavePredict, to characterize and forecast the spatial wave sub-epidemic model, which captures diverse wave dynamics by aggregating multiple asynchronous growth processes and has outperformed simpler phenomenological growth models in short-term forecasts of various infectious diseases outbreaks including SARS, Ebola, and the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. RESULTS: This tutorial-based primer introduces and illustrates a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time-series trajectories using an ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic model based on ordinary differential equations. Scientists, policymakers, and students can use the toolbox to conduct real-time short-term forecasts. The five-parameter epidemic wave model in the toolbox aggregates linked overlapping sub-epidemics and captures a rich spectrum of epidemic wave dynamics, including oscillatory wave behavior and plateaus. An ensemble strategy aims to improve forecasting performance by combining the resulting top-ranked models. The toolbox provides a tutorial for forecasting time-series trajectories, including the full uncertainty distribution derived through parametric bootstrapping, which is needed to construct prediction intervals and evaluate their accuracy. Functions are available to assess forecasting performance, estimation methods, error structures in the data, and forecasting horizons. The toolbox also includes functions to quantify forecasting performance using metrics that evaluate point and distributional forecasts, including the weighted interval score. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed the first comprehensive toolbox to characterize and forecast time-series data using an ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic wave model. As an epidemic situation or contagion occurs, the tools presented in this tutorial can facilitate policymakers to guide the implementation of containment strategies and assess the impact of control interventions. We demonstrate the functionality of the toolbox with examples, including a tutorial video, and is illustrated using daily data on the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.

Reduction in GABAB on glia induce Alzheimer's disease related changes.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by beta-amyloid plaques (Aß), neurofibrillary tangles (NFT), and neuroinflammation. Data have demonstrated that neuroinflammation contributes to Aß and NFT onset and progression, indicating inflammation and glial signaling is vital to understanding AD. A previous investigation demonstrated a significant decrease of the GABAB receptor (GABABR) in APP/PS1 mice (Salazar et al., 2021). To determine if changes in GABABR restricted to glia serve a role in AD, we developed a mouse model with a reduction of GABABR restricted to macrophages, GAB/CX3ert. This model exhibits changes in gene expression and electrophysiological alterations similar to amyloid mouse models of AD. Crossing the GAB/CX3ert mouse with APP/PS1 resulted in significant increases in Aß pathology. Our data demonstrates that decreased GABABR on macrophages leads to several changes observed in AD mouse models, as well as exacerbation of AD pathology when crossed with existing models. These data suggest a novel mechanism in AD pathogenesis.

An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.

We analyze an ensemble of n-sub-epidemic modeling for forecasting the trajectory of epidemics and pandemics. These ensemble modeling approaches, and models that integrate sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics, have demonstrated powerful forecasting capability. This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns, including plateaus, epidemic resurgences, and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes. We systematically assess their calibration and short-term forecasting performance in short-term forecasts for the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA from late April 2020 to late February 2022. We compare their performance with two commonly used statistical ARIMA models. The best fit sub-epidemic model and three ensemble models constructed using the top-ranking sub-epidemic models consistently outperformed the ARIMA models in terms of the weighted interval score (WIS) and the coverage of the 95% prediction interval across the 10-, 20-, and 30-day short-term forecasts. In our 30-day forecasts, the average WIS ranged from 377.6 to 421.3 for the sub-epidemic models, whereas it ranged from 439.29 to 767.05 for the ARIMA models. Across 98 short-term forecasts, the ensemble model incorporating the top four ranking sub-epidemic models (Ensemble(4)) outperformed the (log) ARIMA model 66.3% of the time, and the ARIMA model, 69.4% of the time in 30-day ahead forecasts in terms of the WIS. Ensemble(4) consistently yielded the best performance in terms of the metrics that account for the uncertainty of the predictions. This framework can be readily applied to investigate the spread of epidemics and pandemics beyond COVID-19, as well as other dynamic growth processes found in nature and society that would benefit from short-term predictions.

Human-Mosquito Contact: A Missing Link in Our Understanding of Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission Dynamics.

Despite the critical role that contact between hosts and vectors, through vector bites, plays in driving vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission, transmission risk is primarily studied through the lens of vector density and overlooks host-vector contact dynamics. This review article synthesizes current knowledge of host-vector contact with an emphasis on mosquito bites. It provides a framework including biological and mathematical definitions of host-mosquito contact rate, blood-feeding rate, and per capita biting rates. We describe how contact rates vary and how this variation is influenced by mosquito and vertebrate factors. Our framework challenges a classic assumption that mosquitoes bite at a fixed rate determined by the duration of their gonotrophic cycle. We explore alternative ecological assumptions based on the functional response, blood index, forage ratio, and ideal free distribution within a mechanistic host-vector contact model. We highlight that host-vector contact is a critical parameter that integrates many factors driving disease transmission. A renewed focus on contact dynamics between hosts and vectors will contribute new insights into the mechanisms behind VBD spread and emergence that are sorely lacking. Given the framework for including contact rates as an explicit component of mathematical models of VBD, as well as different methods to study contact rates empirically to move the field forward, researchers should explicitly test contact rate models with empirical studies. Such integrative studies promise to enhance understanding of extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting host-vector contact rates and thus are critical to understand both the mechanisms driving VBD emergence and guiding their prevention and control.

A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves.

BACKGROUND: Simple phenomenological growth models can be useful for estimating transmission parameters and forecasting epidemic trajectories. However, most existing phenomenological growth models only support single-peak outbreak dynamics whereas real epidemics often display more complex transmission trajectories. METHODS: We develop and apply a novel sub-epidemic modeling framework that supports a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations to better understand and forecast epidemic outbreaks. We describe how to forecast an epidemic based on the premise that the observed coarse-scale incidence can be decomposed into overlapping sub-epidemics at finer scales. We evaluate our modeling framework using three outbreak datasets: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Singapore, plague in Madagascar, and the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and four performance metrics. RESULTS: The sub-epidemic wave model outperforms simpler growth models in short-term forecasts based on performance metrics that account for the uncertainty of the predictions namely the mean interval score (MIS) and the coverage of the 95% prediction interval. For example, we demonstrate how the sub-epidemic wave model successfully captures the 2-peak pattern of the SARS outbreak in Singapore. Moreover, in short-term sequential forecasts, the sub-epidemic model was able to forecast the second surge in case incidence for this outbreak, which was not possible using the simple growth models. Furthermore, our findings support the view that the national incidence curve of the Ebola epidemic in DRC follows a stable incidence pattern with periodic behavior that can be decomposed into overlapping sub-epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight how overlapping sub-epidemics can capture complex epidemic dynamics, including oscillatory behavior in the trajectory of the epidemic wave. This observation has significant implications for interpreting apparent noise in incidence data where the oscillations could be dismissed as a result of overdispersion, rather than an intrinsic part of the epidemic dynamics. Unless the oscillations are appropriately modeled, they could also give a false positive, or negative, impression of the impact from public health interventions. These preliminary results using sub-epidemic models can help guide future efforts to better understand the heterogenous spatial and social factors shaping sub-epidemic patterns for other infectious diseases.

A Quantitative Analysis of Context-Dependent Remapping of Medial Frontal Cortex Neurons and Ensembles.

UNLABELLED: The frontal cortex has been implicated in a number of cognitive and motivational processes, but understanding how individual neurons contribute to these processes is particularly challenging as they respond to a broad array of events (multiplexing) in a manner that can be dynamically modulated by the task context, i.e., adaptive coding (Duncan, 2001). Fundamental questions remain, such as how the flexibility gained through these mechanisms is balanced by the need for consistency and how the ensembles of neurons are coherently shaped by task demands. In the present study, ensembles of medial frontal cortex neurons were recorded from rats trained to perform three different operant actions either in two different sequences or two different physical environments. Single neurons exhibited diverse mixtures of responsivity to each of the three actions and these mixtures were abruptly altered by context/sequence switches. Remarkably, the overall responsivity of the population remained highly consistent both within and between context/sequences because the gains versus losses were tightly balanced across neurons and across the three actions. These data are consistent with a reallocation mixture model in which individual neurons express unique mixtures of selectivity for different actions that become reallocated as task conditions change. However, because the allocations and reallocations are so well balanced across neurons, the population maintains a low but highly consistent response to all actions. The frontal cortex may therefore balance consistency with flexibility by having ensembles respond in a fixed way to task-relevant actions while abruptly reconfiguring single neurons to encode "actions in context." SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Flexible modes of behavior involve performance of similar actions in contextually relevant ways. The present study quantified the changes in how rat medial frontal cortex neurons respond to the same actions when performed in different task contexts (sequences or environments). Most neurons altered the mixture of actions they were responsive to in different contexts or sequences. Nevertheless, the responsivity profile of the ensemble remained fixed as did the ability of the ensemble to differentiate between the three actions. These mechanisms may help to contextualize the manner in which common events are represented across different situations.

Forecasting the 2013-2014 influenza season using Wikipedia.

Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

Tracking progress toward a goal in corticostriatal ensembles.

When performing sequences of actions, we constantly keep track of our current position in the sequence relative to the overall goal. The present study searched for neural representations of sequence progression in corticostriatal circuits. Neurons within the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and its target region in the dorsal striatum (DS) were recorded from simultaneously as rats performed different sequences of lever presses. We analyzed the responses of the neurons to presses occurring in the "first," "second," or "third" serial position regardless of the particular sequence or physical levers. Principal component analysis revealed that the main source of firing rate variance in the ACC was a smooth ramp-like change as the animal progressed through the sequence toward the reward. No such smooth-ramping activity was observed in DS ensembles as firing tended to be tightly linked to each action. In the ACC, the progression in firing was observed only for correct choices and not errors, whereas in the DS, firing associated with each action in a sequence was similar regardless of whether the action was correct or not. Therefore, different forms of a signal exist within corticostriatal circuits that evolve across a sequence of actions, with DS ensembles tracking every action and ACC ensembles tracking actual progress toward the goal.

Contextual encoding by ensembles of medial prefrontal cortex neurons.

Contextual representations serve to guide many aspects of behavior and influence the way stimuli or actions are encoded and interpreted. The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), including the anterior cingulate subregion, has been implicated in contextual encoding, yet the nature of contextual representations formed by the mPFC is unclear. Using multiple single-unit tetrode recordings in rats, we found that different activity patterns emerged in mPFC ensembles when animals moved between different environmental contexts. These differences in activity patterns were significantly larger than those observed for hippocampal ensembles. Whereas ≈11% of mPFC cells consistently preferred one environment over the other across multiple exposures to the same environments, optimal decoding (prediction) of the environmental setting occurred when the activity of up to ≈50% of all mPFC neurons was taken into account. On the other hand, population activity patterns were not identical upon repeated exposures to the very same environment. This was partly because the state of mPFC ensembles seemed to systematically shift with time, such that we could sometimes predict the change in ensemble state upon later reentry into one environment according to linear extrapolation from the time-dependent shifts observed during the first exposure. We also observed that many strongly action-selective mPFC neurons exhibited a significant degree of context-dependent modulation. These results highlight potential differences in contextual encoding schemes by the mPFC and hippocampus and suggest that the mPFC forms rich contextual representations that take into account not only sensory cues but also actions and time.

Comparing dengue and chikungunya emergence and endemic transmission in A. aegypti and A. albopictus.

Chikungunya and dengue are re-emerging mosquito-borne infectious diseases that are of increasing concern as human travel and expanding mosquito ranges increase the risk of spread. We seek to understand the differences in transient and endemic behavior of chikungunya and dengue; risk of emergence for different virus-vector assemblages; and the role that virus evolution plays in disease dynamics and risk. To address these questions, we adapt a mathematical mosquito-borne disease model to chikungunya and dengue in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. We derive analytical threshold conditions and important dimensionless parameters for virus transmission; perform sensitivity analysis on quantities of interest such as the basic reproduction number, endemic equilibrium, and first epidemic peak; and compute distributions for the quantities of interest across parameter ranges. We found that chikungunya and dengue exhibit different transient dynamics and long-term endemic levels. While the order of most sensitive parameters is preserved across vector-virus combinations, the magnitude of sensitivity is different across scenarios, indicating that risk of invasion or an outbreak can change with vector-virus assemblages. We found that the dengue - A. aegypti and new Rèunion strain of chikungunya - A. albopictus systems represent the highest risk across the range of parameters considered. These results inform future experimental and field research efforts and point toward effective mitigation strategies adapted to each disease.

Action and outcome activity state patterns in the anterior cingulate cortex.

Although there are numerous theories regarding anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) function, most suggest that it is involved in some form of action or outcome processing. The present study characterized the dominant patterns of ACC activity on a task in which actions and outcomes could vary independently. Patterns of activity were detected using a modified form of principal component analysis (PCA), termed constrained PCA in which a regression procedure was applied prior to PCA to eliminate the contribution of nontask-related activity. When trials were grouped according to outcome, a PC was found in all subjects and sessions that had large fluctuations during actions but only differentiated correct versus error trials prior to the end of the delay and again at time of the outcome. Another PC was always present that separated right from left lever presses, but only around the time of the actual lever press. Individual neurons exhibited significant selectivities for trials involving different actions and/or outcomes. Of the ACC neurons that exhibited significant outcome selectivity, the majority fired more on error trials. The present study revealed separate as well as integrated action and outcome monitoring in the ACC, especially, although not exclusively, under conditions when an error is likely.

Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

Temporal information in the anterior cingulate cortex relates to accumulated experiences.

Anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) activity is important for operations that require the ability to integrate multiple experiences over time, such as rule learning, cognitive flexibility, working memory, and long-term memory recall. To shed light on this, we analyzed neuronal activity while rats repeated the same behaviors during hour-long sessions to investigate how activity changed over time. We recorded neuronal ensembles as rats performed a decision-free operant task with varying reward likelihoods at three different response ports (n = 5). Neuronal state space analysis revealed that each repetition of a behavior was distinct, with more recent behaviors more similar than those further apart in time. ACC activity was dominated by a slow, gradual change in low-dimensional representations of neural state space aligning with the pace of behavior. Temporal progression, or drift, was apparent on the top principal component for every session and was driven by the accumulation of experiences and not an internal clock. Notably, these signals were consistent across subjects, allowing us to accurately predict trial numbers based on a model trained on data from a different animal. We observed that non-continuous ramping firing rates over extended durations (tens of minutes) drove the low-dimensional ensemble representations. 40% of ACC neurons' firing ramped over a range of trial lengths and combinations of shorter duration ramping neurons created ensembles that tracked longer durations. These findings provide valuable insights into how the ACC, at an ensemble level, conveys temporal information by reflecting the accumulation of experiences over extended periods.

Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States.

Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.

GrowthPredict: A toolbox and tutorial-based primer for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models.

Simple dynamic modeling tools can help generate real-time short-term forecasts with quantified uncertainty of the trajectory of diverse growth processes unfolding in nature and society, including disease outbreaks. An easy-to-use and flexible toolbox for this purpose is lacking. This tutorial-based primer introduces and illustrates GrowthPredict, a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time-series trajectories using phenomenological dynamic growth models based on ordinary differential equations. This toolbox is accessible to a broad audience, including students training in mathematical biology, applied statistics, and infectious disease modeling, as well as researchers and policymakers who need to conduct short-term forecasts in real-time. The models included in the toolbox capture exponential and sub-exponential growth patterns that typically follow a rising pattern followed by a decline phase, a common feature of contagion processes. Models include the 1-parameter exponential growth model and the 2-parameter generalized-growth model, which have proven useful in characterizing and forecasting the ascending phase of epidemic outbreaks. It also includes the 2-parameter Gompertz model, the 3-parameter generalized logistic-growth model, and the 3-parameter Richards model, which have demonstrated competitive performance in forecasting single peak outbreaks. We provide detailed guidance on forecasting time-series trajectories and available software ( https://github.com/gchowell/forecasting_growthmodels ), including the full uncertainty distribution derived through parametric bootstrapping, which is needed to construct prediction intervals and evaluate their accuracy. Functions are available to assess forecasting performance across different models, estimation methods, error structures in the data, and forecasting horizons. The toolbox also includes functions to quantify forecasting performance using metrics that evaluate point and distributional forecasts, including the weighted interval score. This tutorial and toolbox can be broadly applied to characterizing and forecasting time-series data using simple phenomenological growth models. As a contagion process takes off, the tools presented in this tutorial can help create forecasts to guide policy regarding implementing control strategies and assess the impact of interventions. The toolbox functionality is demonstrated through various examples, including a tutorial video, and the examples use publicly available data on the monkeypox (mpox) epidemic in the USA.

SubEpiPredict: A tutorial-based primer and toolbox for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework.

An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works. This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns, including plateaus, epidemic resurgences, and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes. In this tutorial paper, we introduce and illustrate SubEpiPredict, a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time series data using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework. The toolbox can be used for model fitting, forecasting, and evaluation of model performance of the calibration and forecasting periods using metrics such as the weighted interval score (WIS). We also provide a detailed description of these methods including the concept of the n-sub-epidemic model, constructing ensemble forecasts from the top-ranking models, etc. For the illustration of the toolbox, we utilize publicly available daily COVID-19 death data at the national level for the United States. The MATLAB toolbox introduced in this paper can be very useful for a wider group of audiences, including policymakers, and can be easily utilized by those without extensive coding and modeling backgrounds.

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning.

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of [Formula: see text] 4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics.

A spatial model of mosquito host-seeking behavior.

Mosquito host-seeking behavior and heterogeneity in host distribution are important factors in predicting the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne infections such as dengue fever, malaria, chikungunya, and West Nile virus. We develop and analyze a new mathematical model to describe the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the contact rate between mosquito vectors and hosts. The model includes odor plumes generated by spatially distributed hosts, wind velocity, and mosquito behavior based on both the prevailing wind and the odor plume. On a spatial scale of meters and a time scale of minutes, we compare the effectiveness of different plume-finding and plume-tracking strategies that mosquitoes could use to locate a host. The results show that two different models of chemotaxis are capable of producing comparable results given appropriate parameter choices and that host finding is optimized by a strategy of flying across the wind until the odor plume is intercepted. We also assess the impact of changing the level of host aggregation on mosquito host-finding success near the end of the host-seeking flight. When clusters of hosts are more tightly associated on smaller patches, the odor plume is narrower and the biting rate per host is decreased. For two host groups of unequal number but equal spatial density, the biting rate per host is lower in the group with more individuals, indicative of an attack abatement effect of host aggregation. We discuss how this approach could assist parameter choices in compartmental models that do not explicitly model the spatial arrangement of individuals and how the model could address larger spatial scales and other probability models for mosquito behavior, such as Lévy distributions.

Spatial navigation: Alzheimer's pathology disrupts movement-based navigation.

All animals use two different strategies to navigate: idiothetic or movement-based navigation, and allothetic or landmark-based navigation. A new study reveals that compromised idiothetic navigation underlies disrupted grid cell coding in an early stage Alzheimer's disease mouse model.

A MATLAB toolbox to fit and forecast growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models: Application to epidemic outbreaks.

Background: Simple dynamic modeling tools can be useful for generating real-time short-term forecasts with quantified uncertainty of the trajectory of diverse growth processes unfolding in nature and society, including disease outbreaks. An easy-to-use and flexible toolbox for this purpose is lacking. Results: In this tutorial-based primer, we introduce and illustrate a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time-series trajectories using phenomenological dynamic growth models based on ordinary differential equations. This toolbox is accessible to various audiences, including students training in time-series forecasting, dynamic growth modeling, parameter estimation, parameter uncertainty and identifiability, model comparison, performance metrics, and forecast evaluation, as well as researchers and policymakers who need to conduct short-term forecasts in real-time. The models included in the toolbox capture exponential and sub-exponential growth patterns that typically follow a rising pattern followed by a decline phase, a common feature of contagion processes. Models include the 2-parameter generalized-growth model, which has proved useful to characterize and forecast the ascending phase of epidemic outbreaks, and the Gompertz model as well as the 3-parameter generalized logistic-growth model and the Richards model, which have demonstrated competitive performance in forecasting single peak outbreaks.The toolbox provides a tutorial for forecasting time-series trajectories that include the full uncertainty distribution, derived through parametric bootstrapping, which is needed to construct prediction intervals and evaluate their accuracy. Functions are available to assess forecasting performance across different models, estimation methods, error structures in the data, and forecasting horizons. The toolbox also includes functions to quantify forecasting performance using metrics that evaluate point and distributional forecasts, including the weighted interval score. Conclusions: We have developed the first comprehensive toolbox to characterize and forecast time-series data using simple phenomenological growth models. As a contagion process takes off, the tools presented in this tutorial can facilitate policymaking to guide the implementation of control strategies and assess the impact of interventions. The toolbox functionality is demonstrated through various examples, including a tutorial video, and is illustrated using weekly data on the monkeypox epidemic in the USA.