Machine learning for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development after the eradication of hepatitis C virus with antivirals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Accurate risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) is necessary for optimal surveillance. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC after achieving an SVR in individual patients. METHODS: In this multicenter cohort study, 1742 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved an SVR were enrolled. Five ML models were developed including DeepSurv, gradient boosting survival analysis, random survival forest (RSF), survival support vector machine, and a conventional Cox proportional hazard model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel' c-index and was externally validated in an independent cohort (977 patients). RESULTS: During the mean observation period of 5.4 years, 122 patients developed HCC (83 in the derivation cohort and 39 in the external validation cohort). The RSF model showed the best discrimination ability using seven parameters at the achievement of an SVR with a c-index of 0.839 in the external validation cohort and a high discriminative ability when the patients were categorized into three risk groups (P <0.001). Furthermore, this RSF model enabled the generation of an individualized predictive curve for HCC occurrence for each patient with an app available online. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated an RSF model with good predictive performance for the risk of HCC after an SVR. The application of this novel model is available on the website. This model could provide the data to consider an effective surveillance method. Further studies are needed to make recommendations for surveillance policies tailored to the medical situation in each country. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: A novel prediction model for HCC occurrence in patients after hepatitis C virus eradication was developed using machine learning algorithms. This model, using seven commonly measured parameters, has been shown to have a good predictive ability for HCC development and could provide a personalized surveillance system.

Early-phase prothrombin time-international normalized ratio in acute liver injury indicates the timing of therapeutic intervention and predicts prognostic improvement.

AIM: We investigated whether an early-phase prothrombin time-international normalized ratio (PT-INR) is an interventional prognostic indicator for patients with acute liver injury, including acute liver failure. METHODS: This was a multicenter retrospective observational study. We included 595 patients with alanine aminotransferase levels ≥300 U/L due to acute liver injury who were admitted to Kagoshima University Hospital or other collaborative investigation organizations between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015. Patients with alanine aminotransferase levels ≥300 U/L and no previous liver disease were defined as having an acute liver injury. Acute liver failure was defined by PT-INR ≥1.5 with or without hepatic encephalopathy in acute liver injury patients. Data were obtained retrospectively from case reports and analyzed. RESULTS: The PT-INR on day 1 was the most accurate independent prognosis predictor in patients with acute liver injury and acute liver failure. On day 1, the transplant-free survival rates were significantly lower in patients with PT-INR ≥1.3. The transplant-free survival rates were also significantly higher in patients with acute liver injury and acute liver failure, in whom the PT-INR had recovered from ≥1.3 on day 1 to <1.3 by day 8. CONCLUSION: Early-phase changes in the PT-INR can predict the prognosis of patients with acute liver injury and acute liver failure. Furthermore, PT-INR ≥1.3 could be an interventional marker, whereas PT-INR <1.3 after 1 week could reflect prognostic improvement.

Simple drainage versus drainage with minocycline infusion for symptomatic hepatic cysts.

Percutaneous treatment of symptomatic hepatic cysts includes simple drainage and drainage with sclerosing agents. We compared the efficacy of simple drainage with that of drainage with minocycline infusion for treating symptomatic hepatic cysts. We retrospectively evaluated 11 patients who underwent percutaneous drainage of symptomatic hepatic cysts. In seven cases, minocycline infusion was added at the discretion of the clinician. Cyst volume was evaluated before drainage, immediately after drainage, and after long-term follow-up. Cyst volume was calculated before treatment by multiplying the orthogonal diameters using the ellipsoid formula. Relapse was defined as the regrowth of the cyst with symptoms. Cyst volume immediately after drainage and after long-term follow-up was significantly less than that before treatment for the drainage with minocycline infusion group (p<0.05) but not for the simple drainage group. The relapse rates were 25% (1/4) for the simple drainage group and 0% for the drainage with minocycline infusion group. Drainage with minocycline infusion could be a promising option for treating symptomatic hepatic cysts, although simple drainage was not reliable.

Diagnostic criteria for acute-on-chronic liver failure and related disease conditions in Japan.

The Intractable Hepato-Biliary Disease Study Group of Japan, sponsored by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Wealth, proposed in 2018 that patients with cirrhosis and a Child-Pugh score of 5-9 should be diagnosed as having acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) when a deterioration of liver function ("serum bilirubin level of 5.0 mg/dl or more" and "prothrombin time value of 40% or less of the standardized values and/or international normalization rates of 1.5 or more") caused by severe liver damage develops within 28 days after an acute insult, including alcohol abuse, bacterial infection, gastrointestinal bleeding, and the exacerbation of underlying liver diseases. Disease severity can be classified into 4 grades depending on the extent of the deterioration in organ functions, including liver, kidney, cerebral, blood coagulation, circulatory and respiratory functions. The Study Group has since performed an annual nationwide survey of patients with ACLF diagnosed according to the proposed diagnostic criteria as well as those with disease conditions related to ACLF. A total of 501 patients, including 183 patients diagnosed as having ACLF, seen between 2017 and 2019 were enrolled, and univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that the proposed diagnostic criteria were useful for identifying cirrhotic patients with an unfavorable outcome following an acute insult. Consequently, the Study Group determined that the proposed diagnostic criteria should be used in both clinical practice and clinical research as formal diagnostic criteria.

Dotinurad: a clinical pharmacokinetic study of a novel, selective urate reabsorption inhibitor in subjects with hepatic impairment.

BACKGROUND: Dotinurad is a novel, selective urate reabsorption inhibitor, which reduces serum uric acid levels by inhibiting the urate transporter 1 (URAT1). We compared the pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics (PD), and safety of dotinurad in subjects with hepatic impairment and normal hepatic function. METHODS: This was a multicenter, open-label, single dose study. A total of 24 subjects were divided into four groups: the normal hepatic function group and the mild, moderate, and severe hepatic impairment groups. The primary endpoints were changes in plasma dotinurad levels and PK parameters. RESULTS: The geometric mean ratio of the maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) [two-sided 90% confidence interval (CI)] of dotinurad in in the mild, moderate, and severe hepatic impairment groups relative to that in the normal hepatic function group was 0.840 (0.674-1.047), 0.798 (0.653-0.976), and 0.747 (0.570-0.979), respectively, showing a lower Cmax in the moderate and severe hepatic impairment groups. Following adjustment for body weight, only the moderate hepatic impairment group had a lower Cmax than the normal hepatic function group. No meaningful differences in other PK parameters were observed between the groups. Regarding the PD of dotinurad, the changes in serum uric acid levels after dosing were similar in all groups. As for safety, no noteworthy concerns were raised in relation to any group. CONCLUSION: The study revealed no clinically meaningful influence of hepatic impairment on the PK, PD, or safety of dotinurad. These findings indicate possibility that dotinurad can be used without dose adjustment in patients with hepatic impairment.

Intention-to-treat assessment of glecaprevir + pibrentasvir combination therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis C in the real world.

AIMS: We assessed the problems and efficacy of glecaprevir + pibrentasvir (GLE/PIB) therapy for patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the real world. METHOD: A total of 423 patients infected with HCV who started treatment at eight different centers in Japan were enrolled in the study. Glecaprevir (300 mg) and pibrentasvir (120 mg) were given once daily for 8 weeks to 246 non-cirrhotic direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-naive patients with HCV genotype (GT)-1 or -2, and for 12 weeks to patients who: were DAA-naive cirrhotic (n = 55), had experienced DAA failure (n = 78), were cirrhotic and had DAA failure (n = 37), and were other GT-1/2 (n = 7). Anti-HCV efficacy was defined as a sustained virologic response 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12). The evaluation was undertaken in an intention-to-treat (ITT) population and in patients who were assessed at SVR12 (modified ITT population). RESULTS: In the ITT population, 220 (89%) patients on the 8-week regimen and 164 (93%) patients on the 12-week regimen achieved SVR12. The 30 dropout patients were predominantly men and with GT-2. All other DAA-naive GT-1 patients achieved SVR12. The 12-week regimen resulted in 100% SVR12 in 41 GT-2 patients. Nine patients did not achieve SVR12: two DAA naive with GT-2a, two GT-3b patients, two GT-1 patients with discontinuation, and three other GT-1 patients with a history of DAA failure. Four of seven patients who discontinued treatment due to severe adverse effects were more than 75 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Glecaprevir + pibrentasvir had a remarkable anti-HCV effect in GT-1 and GT-2 patients, but not in GT-3b patients. Although this therapy was reasonably safe, it is necessary to carefully consider elderly and dropout patients.

A multicenter pilot survey to clarify the clinical features of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in Japan.

AIM: To establish diagnostic criteria for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in Japan, a multicenter pilot survey was carried out to examine the usefulness of overseas criteria in patients with chronic liver diseases manifesting acute decompensation. METHODS: Patients fulfilling the Asian-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL), European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), or Chinese Medical Association (CMA) criteria for decompensation were enrolled from eight institutions in Japan, and the clinical features were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 112 patients, 109 patients (97.3%) fulfilled the APASL criteria for decompensation; 7 patients were excluded because the decompensation had been provoked by gastrointestinal bleeding. Consequently, 102 patients (91.1%) were diagnosed as having ACLF according to the APASL definition. Among the patients who fulfilled the APASL criteria for decompensation, the etiologies of the underlying liver diseases were alcohol abuse in 59 cases (54.1%) and hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus infection in 24 (22.0%). The acute insults were alcohol abuse in 50 (45.9%), bacterial infection in 26 (23.9%), and exacerbation of underlying liver disease in 14 (12.8%). Fifty-four patients (49.5%) satisfied the CMA criteria, but the survival rates were similar between patients who did and those who did not meet the criteria. When 84 patients with underlying cirrhosis were classified according to the EASL-Chronic Liver Failure (Clif) Consortium criteria, the survival rates differed according to grade: 67.6% (23/34) for patients without ACLF, and 41.2% (14/34) and 18.8% (3/16) for those with grade 1/2 and grade 3 ACLF, respectively. CONCLUSION: The APASL definition was suitable for screening Japanese patients with ACLF, including those whose conditions were triggered by gastrointestinal bleeding, and the EASL-Clif Consortium criteria were useful for predicting outcome.

Proposed diagnostic criteria for acute-on-chronic liver failure in Japan.

To establish diagnostic criteria for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in Japan, the Intractable Hepato-Biliary Disease Study Group of Japan undertook a multicenter pilot survey for patients fulfilling the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL), Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-Clif) Consortium, or Chinese Medical Association (CMA) diagnostic criteria for ACLF. The APASL criteria were suitable for screening Japanese patients with ACLF when patients whose conditions were triggered by gastrointestinal bleeding were included within the disease entity, and the EASL-Clif Consortium criteria were useful for classifying the severity of the patients' conditions. Based on these observations, the Study Group proposed the following diagnostic criteria for ACLF in Japan: patients with cirrhosis and a Child-Pugh score of 5-9 should be diagnosed as having ACLF when a deterioration of liver function (serum bilirubin level ≥5.0 mg/dL and prothrombin time value ≤40% of the standardized values and/or international normalization rate ≥1.5) caused by severe liver damage develops within 28 days after acute insults, such as alcohol abuse, bacterial infection, gastrointestinal bleeding, or the exacerbation of underlying liver diseases. The severities of the patients can be classified into four grades depending on the extent of the deterioration in organ functions, including kidney, cerebral, blood coagulation, circulatory and respiratory functions, as well as liver function. The usefulness of these novel criteria should be validated prospectively in a large-scale cohort in the future.

Severe refractory Clostridium difficile infection with good response to fecal microbiota transplantation: a case report.

A 49-year-old woman diagnosed with pseudomembranous enterocolitis was transferred to our hospital for medical treatment. She responded poorly to treatment with vancomycin hydrochloride and metronidazole, so she underwent fecal microbiota transplantation. Treatment effects were observed the next day, and the diarrhea disappeared within 3 days. Colonoscopy 4 days later revealed the resolution of pseudomembranes, and no recurrences were reported within the first year after discharge.

Resistance to cyclosporin A derives from mutations in hepatitis C virus nonstructural proteins.

Cyclosporine A (CsA) is an immunosuppressive drug that targets cyclophilins, cellular cofactors that regulate the immune system. Replication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is suppressed by CsA, but the molecular basis of this suppression is still not fully understood. To investigate this suppression, we cultured HCV replicon cells (Con1, HCV genotype 1b, FLR-N cell) in the presence of CsA and obtained nine CsA-resistant FLR-N cell lines. We determined full-length HCV sequences for all nine clones, and chose two (clones #6 and #7) of the nine clones that have high replication activity in the presence of CsA for further analysis. Both clones showed two consensus mutations, one in NS3 (T1280V) and the other in NS5A (D2292E). Characterization of various mutants indicated that the D2292E mutation conferred resistance to high concentrations of CsA (up to 2 µM). In addition, the missense mutation T1280V contributed to the recovery of colony formation activity. The effects of these mutations are also evident in two established HCV replicon cell lines-HCV-RMT ([1], genotype 1a) and JFH1 (genotype 2a). Moreover, three other missense mutations in NS5A-D2303H, S2362G, and E2414K-enhanced the resistance to CsA conferred by D2292E; these double or all quadruple mutants could resist approximately 8- to 25-fold higher concentrations of CsA than could wild-type Con1. These four mutations, either as single or combinations, also made Con1 strain resistant to two other cyclophilin inhibitors, N-methyl-4-isoleucine-cyclosporin (NIM811) or Debio-025. Interestingly, the changes in IC50 values that resulted from each of these mutations were the lowest in the Debio-025-treated cells, indicating its highest resistant activity against the adaptive mutation.

Neuroendocrine carcinoma arising in a hepatitis C virus-infected liver: mechanism of the tumor development may be similar to that of development of pancreatic neuroendocrine cells.

We experienced a case of neuroendocrine carcinoma (NC). The tumor developed in the cirrhotic liver of a 62-year-old Japanese man who had been infected with hepatitis C virus. The tumor cells showed high N/C ratio, formed many rosettes, and expressed CD56, synaptophysin, HepPar1 and pancreatic and duodenal homeobox 1. MIB1 expression was 65%. Because both liver and pancreas are derived from a common endodermal layer during fetal development, we speculated that the tumor may have formed via the interaction of neurogenin 3, insulinoma-associated 1 gene and NeuroD/beta2, which are involved in the stage at which some pancreatic cells commit to becoming endocrine cells. Molecular analysis revealed that the NC had higher relative expression levels of mRNA of the three molecules than did the nontumorous liver. The results indicate that the NC in this patient may have formed via the same mechanism that acts in the development of pancreatic neuroendocrine cells.

K-685, a TRPV1 antagonist, blocks PKC-sensitized TRPV1 activation and improves the inflammatory pain in a rat complete Freund's adjuvant model.

Transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) is a Ca(2+)-permeable non-selective cation channel that transmits pain signals. TRPV1 is activated by multiple stimuli such as capsaicin, acid, and heat. During inflammation, TRPV1 is reported to be sensitized by protein kinase C (PKC) in dorsal root ganglia (DRG) neurons, which leads to reduction in the threshold of the temperature for TRPV1 activation to body temperature. This sensitization is considered to contribute to chronic inflammatory pain. In a previous study, we discovered orally active 5,5-diarylpentadienamide TRPV1 antagonists. To examine the effects of our TRPV1 antagonists on PKC-sensitized TRPV1, we developed an in vitro assay system to monitor the TRPV1 sensitization by PKC. In this assay system, our TRPV1 antagonists, such as (2E,4Z)-N-[(3R)-3-hydroxy-2-oxo-1,2,3,4-tetrahydro-5-quinolyl]-5-(4-isopropoxyphenyl)-5-(4-trifluoromethylphenyl)-2,4-pentadienamide (K-685), inhibited the activation of TRPV1 sensitized by PKC. The potentiation of heat-induced inward currents by PKC was seen in rat DRG neurons, and K-685 attenuated these currents. Furthermore, K-685 reversed the thermal hyperalgesia and mechanical allodynia in a rat complete Freund's adjuvant-induced inflammatory pain model. These results therefore suggest that K-685 has a strong potential as a new analgesic drug for the treatment of inflammatory pain.

Factors that affect the development of acute hemorrhagic rectal ulcer syndrome and rebleeding.

Objectives: Acute hemorrhagic rectal ulcer syndrome (AHRUS) causes massive bleeding and often recurrent rebleeding from rectal ulcers that form immediately above the dentate line. This study aimed to determine the clinical background and risk factors contributing to rebleeding in patients with AHRUS and the most appropriate method of hemostasis treatment. Methods: This retrospective study included 93 patients diagnosed with AHRUS at Showa University Fujigaoka Hospital, Japan, between April 2009 and November 2018. Information on clinical background factors, endoscopic findings, and hemostasis was obtained from medical records. The relationship with episodes of rebleeding was analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: The median age was 79 years, and 84 patients (90%) had a performance status of grade 2 or higher. The patients had multiple background factors, with a median number of 5 per patient. The background factors could be classified into two major factors: those related to arteriosclerosis and those related to delayed wound healing.In the multivariate analysis, significantly more rebleeding occurred in patients with active bleeding during the initial endoscopy (odds ratio 4.88, 95% confidence interval 1.80-14.46, p = 0.003); significantly less rebleeding occurred in patients for whom hemostasis was first performed by clipping (odds ratio 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.09-0.88, p = 0.035). Conclusions: In bedridden older individuals with poor general health, multiple combinations of arteriosclerosis-related factors and protracted wound healing factors can induce AHRUS. We strongly recommend performing hemostasis via the clipping method on suspected bleeding points, including active bleeding sites, in AHRUS.

Impairment of interferon regulatory factor-3 activation by hepatitis C virus core protein basic amino acid region 1.

Interferon regulatory factor-3 (IRF-3), a key transcriptional factor in the type I interferon system, is frequently impaired by hepatitis C virus (HCV), in order to establish persistent infection. However, the exact mechanism by which the virus establishes persistent infection has not been fully understood yet. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of various HCV proteins on IRF-3 activation, and elucidate the underlying mechanisms. To achieve this, full-length HCV and HCV subgenomic constructs corresponding to structural and each of the nonstructural proteins were transiently transfected into HepG2 cells. IFN-ß induction, plaque formation, and IRF-3 dimerization were elicited by Newcastle disease virus (NDV) infection. The expressions of IRF-3 homodimer and its monomer, Ser386-phosphorylated IRF-3, and HCV core protein were detected by immunofluorescence and western blotting. IFN-ß mRNA expression was quantified by real-time PCR (RT-PCR), and IRF-3 activity was measured by the levels of IRF-3 dimerization and phosphorylation, induced by NDV infection or polyriboinosinic:polyribocytidylic acid [poly(I:C)]. Switching of the expression of the complete HCV genome as well as the core proteins, E1, E2, and NS2, suppressed IFN-ß mRNA levels and IRF-3 dimerization, induced by NDV infection. Our study revealed a crucial region of the HCV core protein, basic amino acid region 1 (BR1), to inhibit IRF-3 dimerization as well as its phosphorylation induced by NDV infection and poly (I:C), thus interfering with IRF-3 activation. Therefore, our study suggests that rescue of the IRF-3 pathway impairment may be an effective treatment for HCV infection.

Factors predicting the appearance of neutropenia in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer undergoing gemcitabine therapy.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Factors predicting the appearance of neutropenia were evaluated in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer undergoing gemcitabine hydrochloride (GEM) therapy. METHODOLOGY: The subjects were 92 patients who were diagnosed with unresectable advanced pancreatic cancer and underwent GEM therapy. Mono- and multivariate analyses were performed concerning each evaluated factor. The toxicity index (TI) was also prepared by combining the extracted predictive factors. RESULTS: Severe neutropenia occurred in 26 patients (28.2%). As a result of multivariate analysis, the white blood cell count (WBC), CA19-9 and liver metastasis were extracted as factors independently and significantly contributing to the appearance of severe neutropenia (p<0.05). The TI was prepared by combining these 3 factors and their regression coefficients: TI = 4.777-0.605xWBC (x103/microL)-0.511xlog (CA19-9)-1.285xliver metastasis. CONCLUSIONS: The WBC, CA19-9 and liver metastasis before treatment were shown to be related to the appearance of severe neutropenia after GEM therapy.

Safety, tolerability, and anti-fibrotic efficacy of the CBP/ß-catenin inhibitor PRI-724 in patients with hepatitis C and B virus-induced liver cirrhosis: An investigator-initiated, open-label, non-randomised, multicentre, phase 1/2a study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted an exploratory study to assess the safety tolerability, and anti-fibrotic effects of PRI-724, a CBP/ß-catenin inhibitor, in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)- and hepatitis B virus (HBV)-induced cirrhosis. METHODS: This multicentre, open-label, non-randomised, non-placebo-controlled phase 1/2a trial was conducted at three hospitals in Japan. Between July 27, 2018, and July 13, 2021, we enrolled patients with HCV- and HBV-induced cirrhosis classified as Child-Pugh (CP) class A or B. In phase 1, 15 patients received intravenous infusions of PRI-724 at escalating doses of 140, 280, and 380 mg/m2/4 h twice weekly for 12 weeks. In phase 2a, 12 patients received the recommended PRI-724 dose. The primary endpoints of phases 1 and 2a were the frequency and severity of adverse events and efficacy in treating cirrhosis based on liver biopsy. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (no. NCT03620474). FINDINGS: Three patients from phase 1 who received the recommended PRI-724 dose were evaluated to obtain efficacy and safety data in phase 2a. Serious adverse events occurred in three patients, one of which was possibly related to PRI-724. The most common adverse events were diarrhoea and nausea. PRI-724 did not decrease hepatic fibrosis with any statistical significance, either by ordinal scoring or measurement of collagen proportionate area at 12 weeks; however, we observed statistically significant improvements in liver stiffness, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, and serum albumin level. INTERPRETATION: Intravenous administration of 280 mg/m2/4 h PRI-724 over 12 weeks was preliminarily assessed to be well tolerated; however, further evaluation of anti-fibrotic effects in patients with cirrhosis is warranted. FUNDING: AMED, Ohara Pharmaceutical.