Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections from deaths, confirmed cases, tests, and random surveys.

There are multiple sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely underestimates the number of infections, and deaths lag infections substantially, while test positivity rates tend to greatly overestimate prevalence. Representative random prevalence surveys, the only putatively unbiased source, are sparse in time and space, and the results can come with big delays. Reliable estimates of population prevalence are necessary for understanding the spread of the virus and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. We develop a simple Bayesian framework to estimate viral prevalence by combining several of the main available data sources. It is based on a discrete-time Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with time-varying reproductive parameter. Our model includes likelihood components that incorporate data on deaths due to the virus, confirmed cases, and the number of tests administered on each day. We anchor our inference with data from random-sample testing surveys in Indiana and Ohio. We use the results from these two states to calibrate the model on positive test counts and proceed to estimate the infection fatality rate and the number of new infections on each day in each state in the United States. We estimate the extent to which reported COVID cases have underestimated true infection counts, which was large, especially in the first months of the pandemic. We explore the implications of our results for progress toward herd immunity.

A lentiviral vector B cell gene therapy platform for the delivery of the anti-HIV-1 eCD4-Ig-knob-in-hole-reversed immunoadhesin.

Barriers to effective gene therapy for many diseases include the number of modified target cells required to achieve therapeutic outcomes and host immune responses to expressed therapeutic proteins. As long-lived cells specialized for protein secretion, antibody-secreting B cells are an attractive target for foreign protein expression in blood and tissue. To neutralize HIV-1, we developed a lentiviral vector (LV) gene therapy platform for delivery of the anti-HIV-1 immunoadhesin, eCD4-Ig, to B cells. The EµB29 enhancer/promoter in the LV limited gene expression in non-B cell lineages. By engineering a knob-in-hole-reversed (KiHR) modification in the CH3-Fc eCD4-Ig domain, we reduced interactions between eCD4-Ig and endogenous B cell immunoglobulin G proteins, which improved HIV-1 neutralization potency. Unlike previous approaches in non-lymphoid cells, eCD4-Ig-KiHR produced in B cells promoted HIV-1 neutralizing protection without requiring exogenous TPST2, a tyrosine sulfation enzyme required for eCD4-Ig-KiHR function. This finding indicated that B cell machinery is well suited to produce therapeutic proteins. Lastly, to overcome the inefficient transduction efficiency associated with VSV-G LV delivery to primary B cells, an optimized measles pseudotyped LV packaging methodology achieved up to 75% transduction efficiency. Overall, our findings support the utility of B cell gene therapy platforms for therapeutic protein delivery.