Excess deaths by sex and Age Group in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

The COVID-19 pandemic hastened hundreds of thousands of deaths in the United States. Many of these excess deaths are directly attributed to COVID-19, but others stem from the pandemic's social, economic, and health care system disruptions. This study compares provisional mortality data for age and sex subgroups across different time windows, with and without COVID-19 deaths, and assesses whether mortality risks are returning to pre-pandemic levels. Using provisional mortality reports from the CDC, we compute mortality risks for 22 age and sex subgroups in 2021 and compare against 2015-2019 using odds ratios. We repeat this comparison for the first twelve full months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States (April 2020-March 2021) against the next twelve full months (April 2021-March 2022). Mortality risks for most subgroups were significantly higher in 2021 than in 2015-2019, both with and without deaths involving COVID-19. For ages 25-54, Year 2 (April 2021-March 2022) was more fatal than Year 1 (April 2020-March 2021), whereas total mortality risks for the 65 + age groups declined. Given so many displaced deaths in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality risks in the next few years may fall below pre-pandemic levels. Provisional mortality data suggest this is already happening for the 75 + age groups when excluding COVID-19 deaths.

Beyond COVID-19 deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

COVID-19 has disrupted society and health care systems, creating a fertile environment for deaths beyond the virus. The year 2020 will prove to be the most deadly year on record in the United States. Direct deaths due to COVID-19 have been well documented and reported. Older people (those over 65) have been hardest hit, with over 80% of the COVID-19 deaths in this age group. What has been less clear is the impact on those under 65 years old, particularly those under 44 years old. This study considers both COVID-19 deaths and non-COVID-19 deaths during a 39 weeks period beginning 1 March in both 2020 and averaged over the five years from 2015 to 2019. Across 22 age and gender cohorts, death risks are compared using odds ratios. The results indicate that younger people (those under 15 years old) have experienced the same or a reduction in death risk between 2020 and the average from 2015 to 2019, suggesting that societal changes were protective for some of them. With all COVID-19 deaths removed from the 2020 death counts, 15-64 year olds experienced increased death risk between 2020 and the 2015 to 2019 average. For example, 15-44 year old males experienced a significant increase in their death risk, even though the absolute number of COVID-19 deaths for this cohort is small. The key take away from this study is that COVID-19 resulted in a large number of additional deaths in 2020 compared to the average from 2015 to 2019, both directly from the virus and indirectly due to societal responses to the virus.

Analyzing the impact of public transit usage on obesity.

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of county-level public transit usage on obesity prevalence in the United States and assess the potential for public transit usage as an intervention for obesity. This study adopts an instrumental regression approach to implicitly control for potential selection bias due to possible differences in commuting preferences among obese and non-obese populations. United States health data from the 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and transportation data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey are aggregated and matched at the county level. County-level public transit accessibility and vehicle ownership rates are chosen as instrumental variables to implicitly control for unobservable commuting preferences. The results of this instrumental regression analysis suggest that a one percent increase in county population usage of public transit is associated with a 0.221 percent decrease in county population obesity prevalence at the α=0.01 statistical significance level, when commuting preferences, amount of non-travel physical activity, education level, health resource, and distribution of income are fixed. Hence, this study provides empirical support for the effectiveness of encouraging public transit usage as an intervention strategy for obesity.

Random Acts of Violence? Examining Probabilistic Independence of the Temporal Distribution of Mass Killing Events in the United States.

Recent mass killings, such as those in Newtown, Connecticut, and Aurora, Colorado, have brought new attention to mass killings in the United States. This article examines 323 mass killings taking place between January 1, 2006, and October 4, 2016, to assess how they are distributed over time. In particular, we find that they appear to be uniformly distributed over time, which suggests that their rate has remained stable over the past decade. Moreover, analysis of subsets of these mass killings sharing a common trait (e.g., family killings, public killings) suggests that they exhibit a memoryless property, suggesting that mass killing events within each category are random in the sense that the occurrence of a mass killing event does not signal whether another mass killing event is imminent. However, the same memoryless property is not found when combining all mass killings into a single analysis, consistent with earlier research that found evidence of a contagion effect among mass killing events. Because of the temporal randomness of public mass killings and the wide geographic area over which they can occur, these results imply that these events may be best addressed by systemic infrastructure-based interventions that deter such events, incorporate resiliency into the response system, or impede such events until law enforcement can respond when they do occur.

A double-risk monitoring and movement restriction policy for Ebola entry screening at airports in the United States.

This paper provides an alternative policy for Ebola entry screening at airports in the United States. This alternative policy considers a social contact tracing (SCT) risk level, in addition to the current health risk level used by the CDC. The performances of both policies are compared based on the scenarios that occur and the expected cost associated with implementing such policies. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify conditions under which one policy dominates the other policy. This analysis takes into account that the alternative policy requires additional data collection, which is balanced by a more cost-effective allocation of resources.

The relationship between pediatric combination vaccines and market effects.

We explored market factors that affect pediatric combination vaccine uptake in the US public-sector pediatric vaccine market. We specifically examined how Pediarix and Pentacel earned a place in the 2009-2012 lowest overall cost formulary. Direct competition between Pediarix and Pentacel is driven by the indirect presence of the Merck Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine and the Recommended Childhood Immunization Schedule requirement for a hepatitis B birth dose. The resulting analysis suggests that Pentacel would never have earned a place in the lowest overall cost formulary for 2009-2012 federal contract prices for any cost of an injection unless the Merck H influenzae type b advantage was ignored and the hepatitis B birth dose administration cost was recognized by health care providers in designing the lowest overall cost formularies.

Quantifying the association between obesity, automobile travel, and caloric intake.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to assess the association between average adult body mass index (BMI), automobile travel, and caloric intake in the US in order to predict future trends of adult obesity. METHODS: Annual BMI data (1984-2010) from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), vehicle miles traveled data (1970-2009) from the Federal Highway Administration, licensed drivers data (1970-2009) from the Federal Highway Administration, and adult average daily caloric intake data (1970-2009) from the US Department of Agriculture were collected. A statistical model is proposed to capture multicollinearity across the independent variables. RESULTS: The proposed statistical model provides an estimate of changes in the average adult BMI associated with changes in automobile travel and caloric intake. According to this model, reducing daily automobile travel by one mile per driver would be associated with a 0.21 kg/m(2) reduction in the national average BMI after six years. Reducing daily caloric intake by 100 calories per person would be associated with a 0.16 kg/m(2) reduction in the national average BMI after three years. CONCLUSION: Making small changes in travel or diet choices may lead to comparable obesity interventions, implying that travel-based interventions may be as effective as dietary interventions.

Identifying changing aviation threat environments within an adaptive Homeland Security Advisory System.

A critical component of aviation security consists of screening passengers and baggage to protect airports and aircraft from terrorist threats. Advancements in screening device technology have increased the ability to detect these threats; however, specifying the operational configurations of these devices in response to changes in the threat environment can become difficult. This article proposes to use Fisher information as a statistical measure for detecting changes in the threat environment. The perceived risk of passengers, according to prescreening information and behavior analysis, is analyzed as the passengers sequentially enter the security checkpoint. The alarm responses from the devices used to detect threats are also analyzed to monitor significant changes in the frequency of threat items uncovered. The key results are that this information-based measure can be used within the Homeland Security Advisory System to indicate changes in threat conditions in real time, and provide the flexibility of security screening detection devices to responsively and automatically adapt operational configurations to these changing threat conditions.

What Is Driving Obesity? A Review on the Connections Between Obesity and Motorized Transportation.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Traveling by automobile rather than walking or cycling can encourage obesity by eliminating physical activity. As national obesity rates in the USA have reached 37.9% in 2014, understanding the connections between obesity and transportation choices can help policymakers in the public health community propose effective obesity interventions at the national level. RECENT FINDINGS: Following from foundational studies examining associations between the built environment and leisure walking, recent studies consider a diverse set of transportation choices regarding mode (e.g., automobile, walking, public transit) and purpose (e.g., commuting, leisure), along with studies on the effectiveness of several transportation-related interventions for obesity. The reviewed studies point toward potential interventions for obesity; there is emerging evidence that commuting by public transit may be one such intervention. Moreover, new data-gathering tools such as global positioning systems, geographic information systems, and accelerometers may alleviate statistical obstacles in conducting future studies.

Analytics for vaccine economics and pricing: insights and observations.

Pediatric immunization programs in the USA are a successful and cost-effective public health endeavor, profoundly reducing mortalities caused by infectious diseases. Two important issues relate to the success of the immunization programs, the selection of cost-effective vaccines and the appropriate pricing of vaccines. The recommended childhood immunization schedule, published annually by the CDC, continues to expand with respect to the number of injections required and the number of vaccines available for selection. The advent of new vaccines to meet the growing requirements of the schedule results: in a large, combinatorial number of possible vaccine formularies. The expansion of the schedule and the increase in the number of available vaccines constitutes a challenge for state health departments, large city immunization programs, private practices and other vaccine purchasers, as a cost-effective vaccine formulary must be selected from an increasingly large set of possible vaccine combinations to satisfy the schedule. The pediatric vaccine industry consists of a relatively small number of pharmaceutical firms engaged in the research, development, manufacture and distribution of pediatric vaccines. The number of vaccine manufacturers has dramatically decreased in the past few decades for a myriad of reasons, most notably due to low profitability. The contraction of the industry negatively impacts the reliable provision of pediatric vaccines. The determination of appropriate vaccine prices is an important issue and influences a vaccine manufacturer's decision to remain in the market. Operations research is a discipline that applies advanced analytical methods to improve decision making; analytics is the application of operations research to a particular problem using pertinent data to provide a practical result. Analytics provides a mechanism to resolve the challenges facing stakeholders in the vaccine development and delivery system, in particular, the selection of cost-effective vaccines and the appropriate pricing of vaccines. A review of applicable analytics papers is provided.

Designing pediatric vaccine formularies and pricing pediatric combination vaccines using operations research models and algorithms.

The National Immunization Program, housed within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the USA, has identified several challenges that must be faced in childhood immunization programs to deliver and procure vaccines that immunize children from the plethora of childhood diseases. The biomedical issues cited include how drug manufacturers can combine and formulate vaccines, how such vaccines are scheduled and administered and how economically sound vaccine procurement can be achieved. This review discusses how operations research models can be used to address the economics of pediatric vaccine formulary design and pricing, as well as how such models can be used to address a new set of pediatric formulary problems that will surface with the introduction of pediatric combination vaccines into the US pediatric immunization market.

Pricing strategies for combination pediatric vaccines based on the lowest overall cost formulary.

This paper analyzes pricing strategies for US pediatric combination vaccines by comparing the lowest overall cost formularies (i.e., formularies that have the lowest overall cost). Three pharmaceutical companies compete pairwise over the sale of monovalent and combination vaccines. Particular emphasis is placed on examining the price of Sanofi Pasteur's DTaP-IPV/HIb under different conditions. The main contribution of the paper is to provide the lowest overall cost formularies for different prices of DTaP-IPV/HIb and other Sanofi Pasteur vaccines. The resulting analysis shows that DTaP-IPV/HIb could have been more competitively priced compared with the combination vaccine DTaP-HepB-IPV, for federal contract prices in 2009, 2010 and 2011. This study also proposes the lowest overall cost formularies when shortages of monovalent vaccines occur.

Pricing strategies for combination pediatric vaccines and their impact on revenue: Pediarix or Pentacel?

This paper analyzes pricing strategies for pediatric combination vaccines and their impact on the United States pediatric vaccine market. Three pharmaceutical companies compete pairwise with each other over the sale of vaccines containing two or three antigens per injection. Specific emphasis is placed on examining the competition between two pentavalent vaccines: GlaxoSmithKline's Pediarix (DTaP-HepB-IPV) and Sanofi Pasteur's Pentacel (DTaP-IPV/Hib). The main contribution of the paper is to provide a methodology for analyzing pricing strategies of directly competing, partially overlapping, and mutually exclusive combination vaccines in the United States pediatric vaccine market, with the goal of maximizing each pharmaceutical company's expected revenue. The resulting analysis shows that Pentacel is not competitively priced when compared to Pediarix, its strongest competitor, for federal contract prices ending 31 March 2010. Accordingly, Sanofi Pasteur should expect to generate low revenue upon market entry, while Pediarix remains well priced, with GlaxoSmithKline able to generate a high level of revenue at the expense of Sanofi Pasteur. The proposed pricing approach suggests an appropriate price for Pentacel whereby a substantial increase in expected revenue can be realized.

A web-based tool for designing vaccine formularies for childhood immunization in the United States.

This article describes the motivation, development, and implementation of a software tool, www.vaccineselection.com, introduced to assist health care professionals and public health administrators in managing pediatric vaccine purchase decisions and making economically sound formulary choices. The tool integrates general operations research methodologies with specific local practice choices to solve for the lowest overall cost set of vaccines required to immunize a child according to the Recommended Childhood Immunization Schedule. A description of the tool's capabilities is provided. RESULTS on the use of the software tool are reported and discussed.

Maximizing the effectiveness of a pediatric vaccine formulary while prohibiting extraimmunization.

The growing-complexity of the United States Recommended Childhood Immunization Schedule has resulted in as many as five required injections during a single well-baby office visit. To reduce this number, vaccine manufacturers have developed combination vaccines that immunize against several diseases in a single injection. At the same time, a growing number of parents are challenging the safety and effectiveness of vaccinating children. They are also particularly concerned about the use of combination vaccines, since they believe that injecting a child with multiple antigens simultaneously may overwhelm a child's immune system. Moreover, combination vaccines make it more likely that extraimmunization (i.e., administering more than the required amount of vaccine antigens) occurs, resulting in greater concerns by parents and vaccine wastage costs borne by an already strained healthcare system. This paper formulates an integer programming model that solves for the maximum number of vaccines that can be administered without any extraimmunization. An exact dynamic programming algorithm and a randomized heuristic for the integer programming model is formulated and the heuristic is shown to be a randomized xi-approximation algorithm. Computational results are reported on three sets of test problems, based on existing and future childhood immunization schedules, to demonstrate their computational effectiveness and limitations. Given that future childhood immunization schedules may need to be solved for each child, on a case-by-case basis, the results reported here may provide a practical and valuable tool for the public health community.

Survey of vaccine distribution and delivery issues in the USA: from pediatrics to pandemics.

Vaccine distribution and delivery has become an issue of significant interest, given the threat of a pandemic influenza outbreak and the resulting need for coordinated efforts to distribute and deliver pandemic influenza vaccines into the hands of healthcare workers responsible for administering them. This review provides an overview of the issues that are most relevant to vaccine distribution and delivery, including routine pediatric immunization, combination vaccines, vaccine shortages and stockpiling, seasonal influenza vaccines and, of most current interest, a discussion on pandemic influenza outbreak issues and a list of future distribution and delivery challenges that may be faced during such an event.

A cost-benefit analysis of alternative device configurations for aviation-checked baggage security screening.

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have resulted in dramatic changes in aviation security. As of early 2003, an estimated 1,100 explosive detection systems (EDS) and 6,000 explosive trace detection machines (ETD) have been deployed to ensure 100% checked baggage screening at all commercial airports throughout the United States. The prohibitive costs associated with deploying and operating such devices is a serious issue for the Transportation Security Administration. This article evaluates the cost effectiveness of the explosive detection technologies currently deployed to screen checked baggage as well as new technologies that could be used in the future. Both single-device and two-device systems are considered. In particular, the expected annual direct cost of using these devices for 100% checked baggage screening under various scenarios is obtained and the tradeoffs between using single- and two-device strategies are studied. The expected number of successful threats under the different checked baggage screening scenarios with 100% checked baggage screening is also obtained. Lastly, a risk-based screening strategy proposed in the literature is analyzed. The results reported suggest that for the existing security setup, with current device costs and probability parameters, single-device systems are less costly and have fewer expected number of successful threats than two-device systems due to the way the second device affects the alarm or clear decision. The risk-based approach is found to have the potential to significantly improve security. The cost model introduced provides an effective tool for the execution of cost-benefit analyses of alternative device configurations for aviation-checked baggage security screening.

An analysis of the pediatric vaccine supply shortage problem.

In 2002, several factors resulted in pediatric vaccine manufacturers not being able to produce a sufficient number of vaccines to vaccinate all the children in the United States according to the Recommended Childhood Immunization Schedule. The resulting vaccine supply shortage resulted in thousands of children not being fully immunized according to this schedule, and hence, created an unnecessary risk for epidemic outbreaks of several childhood diseases. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention responded to this crisis by using pediatric vaccine stockpiles to mitigate the impact of future shortages. This paper presents a stochastic model that captures the vaccine supply during production interruptions. This model is used to assess the impact of pediatric vaccine stockpile levels on vaccination coverage rates, by considering the probability that all children can be immunized according to the Recommended Childhood Immunization Schedule over a given time period and the expected minimum vaccine supply. The model is also used to assess the proposed pediatric vaccine stockpile levels recommended by the United States Department of Health and Human Services. The results of this analysis suggest that the proposed vaccine stockpile levels are adequate to meet future vaccine production interruptions, provided that such production interruptions do not last more than six months (which is not surprising, given that is the time period for which they were designed). However, given that recent vaccine production interruptions have lasted (on average) for over one year, the proposed vaccine stockpile levels are insufficient to meet the nation's pediatric immunization needs during such time periods, which in turn could lead to localized and/or widespread disease outbreaks. Moreover, a moderate investment in higher vaccine stockpile levels would lead to a significantly reduced risk of such events.