Medical expenses and its determinants in female patients with urological disorder.

BACKGROUND: The rising older adult population has led to an increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases and medical expenses. Women tend to have a longer healthy life expectancy than men and are more likely to be exposed to urological disorders around the age of 50, resulting in substantial healthcare expenses throughout their lifetime. Urological disorders often require continuous treatment owing to their high risk of recurrence, contributing to an increased financial burden from medical costs. This study aimed to identify factors influencing medical expense in female patients with urological disorders and propose strategies to alleviate the associated financial burden. METHODS: We used data from the Korea Health Panel Survey conducted from 2011 to 2016. The final sample comprised 2,932 patients who visited hospitals for urological disorders. To identify the factors influencing medical expense among female patients with urological disorders, we employed a generalized estimating equation model. RESULTS: The results indicated that younger people and patients with middle-income levels tended to incur higher medical expenses. Furthermore, patients receiving treatment at tertiary hospitals and those enrolled in National Health Insurance also incurred higher health expenses. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that effective management of medical expenses related to urological disorders in women requires improvements in healthcare accessibility to facilitate early detection and continuous disease management. In addition, the findings highlight the potential benefits of digital health and non-face-to-face treatments in addressing these needs.

Out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditure and its determinants among Iranian households with elderly members: a double-hurdle model.

OBJECTIVES: The population of older adults continues to grow in Iran, with pharmaceutical costs as a leading driver of household health-related costs. The present study was conducted to estimate the out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditure and its socioeconomic predictors among households with the elderly in Iran. METHOD: This study is a secondary analysis using 2019 national household expenditure and income survey data in Iran. The sample size was 9381 households with at least one member older than 65. The double-hurdle model in STATA 16 was used to examine the association between independent variables and households' out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditures. RESULTS: The mean out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditures for each household with elderly member was $8065 per year. There was a positive association between the (female) gender of the household head, urban residence, employment status, insurance expenditure and a higher level of education of the head of the household with the out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditures (P < 0.05). The income of elderly households did not affect these expenditures (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the socioeconomic characteristics of elderly families not only influenced their decision to enter the medicine market, but also the rate of medicine purchase. It is helpful to manage and control the pharmaceutical costs among the elderly.

Return on investment in science: twenty years of European Commission funded research in Alzheimer's dementia, breast cancer and prostate cancer.

Alzheimer's disease (AD), breast cancer (BC) and prostate cancer (PC) continue to be high in the research and innovation agenda of the European Commission (EC). This is due to their exceptionally large burden to the national health systems, the profound economic effects of opportunity costs attributable to decreased working ability, premature mortality and the ever-increasing demand for both hospital and home-based medical care. Over the last two decades, the EC has been steadily increasing both the number of proposals being funded and the amounts of financial resources being allocated to these fields of research. This trend has continued throughout four consecutive science funding cycles, namely framework programme (FP)5, FP6, FP7 and Horizon 2020 (H2020). We performed a retrospective assessment of the outputs and outcomes of EC funding in AD, BC and PC research over the 1999-2019 period by means of selected indicators. These indicators were assessed for their ability to screen the past, present and future for an array of causal relationships and long-term trends in clinical, epidemiological and public health sphere, while considering also the broader socioeconomic impact of funded research on the society at large. This analysis shows that public-private partnerships with large industry and university-based consortia have led to some of the most impactful proposals being funded over the analysed time period. New pharmaceuticals, small molecules and monoclonal antibodies alike, along with screening and prevention, have been the most prominent sources of innovation in BC and PC, extending patients' survival and enhancing their quality of life. Unlike oncology, dementia drug development has been way less successful, with only minor improvements related to the quality of supportive medical care for symptoms and more sensitive diagnostics, without any ground-breaking disease-modifying treatment(s). Significant progresses in imaging diagnostics and nanotechnology have been largely driven by the participation of medical device industry multinational companies. Clinical trials funded by the EC were conducted, leading to the development of brand-new drug molecules featuring novel mechanisms of action. Some prominent cases of breakthrough discoveries serve as evidence for the European capability to generate cutting-edge technological innovation in biomedicine. Less productive areas of research may be reconsidered as priorities when shaping the new agenda for forthcoming science funding programmes.

Could high continuity of care (COC) have a negative impact on subjective health of hypertensive patients? A Japanese perspective.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases, such as stroke and ischemic heart disease attributable to hypertension, are major causes of premature death in Japan and worldwide. Nevertheless, a low rate of blood pressure control among hypertensive patients has been observed in most countries. No previous studies have explored the effectiveness of physician visits among hypertensive patients in Japan. METHODS: To quantify the effects of persistence in physician visits among hypertensive patients, we evaluated the causal effect of physician visits on the health of hypertensive patients. We used 16 waves of nationally representative longitudinal data drawn from the Longitudinal Survey of Middle-aged and Elderly Persons in Japan (2005-2020). To examine the causal effect of physician visits on patients' health outcomes, we used inverse probability treatment weights and doubly robust estimation and obtained the estimates of the average treatment effects on the treated (ATETs). RESULTS: Covariates were well balanced among patients who had physician visits during the past two consecutive years (N = 67,210; 64.9% among hypertensive patients). The estimated ATETs suggest that three consecutive years of physician visits had a negative impact on poor subjective health. Furthermore, patients without habitual exercise tended to not continue physician visits and perceived poor subjective health. CONCLUSIONS: Although the impact of frequent physician visits on blood pressure stability remains uncertain, regular appointments every 30 days can be effective for individuals with hypertension, particularly if they receive continuous instruction from their family physician. Because it is important for physicians to strengthen hypertensive patients' blood pressure control, promoting consecutive physician visits to hypertensive patients with diabetes, lower educational attainment, or smoking habits is needed.

Population ageing and sustainability of healthcare financing in China.

BACKGROUND: In China, the healthcare financing structure involves multiple parties, including the government, society and individuals. Medicare Fund is an important way for the Government and society to reduce the burden of individual medical costs. However, with the aging of the population, the demand of Medicare Fund is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the sustainability of the healthcare financing structure in the context of population ageing. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper is to organize the characteristics of population ageing as well as healthcare financing in China. On this basis, it analyzes the impact mechanism of population ageing on healthcare financing and the sustainability of existing healthcare financing. METHODS: This paper mainly adopts the method of literature research and inductive summarization. Extracting data from Health Statistics Yearbook of China and Labor and Social Security Statistics Yearbook of China. Collected about 60 pieces of relevant literature at home and abroad. RESULTS: China has already entered a deeply ageing society. Unlike developed countries in the world, China's population ageing has distinctive feature of ageing before being rich. A healthcare financing scheme established by China, composing of the government, society, and individuals, is reasonable. However, under the pressure of population ageing, China's current healthcare financing scheme will face enormous challenges. Scholars are generally pessimistic about the sustainability of China's healthcare financing scheme. CONCLUSIONS: Population ageing will increase the expenditure and reduce the income of the Medicare Fund. This will further affect the sustainability of the healthcare financing structure. As a consequence, the state should pay particular attention to this issue and take action to ensure that the Fund continues to operate steadily.

Successes and challenges of China's health care reform: a four-decade perspective spanning 1985-2023.

Chinese health system remains the crucial one for understanding the wider healthcare landscape across the Global South and in particular the leading Emerging Markets. Purpose of our observation was to understand the inner dynamics of mainland Chinese health reforms adopting a lengthy time horizon. We have analysed the public reports and seminal evidence on Chinese of multiple waves of national health reforms taking place since 1980s in terms of medical care and pharmaceuticals provision and financing. Chinese international trade with ASEAN nations and wider South-East Asia is accelerating its growth after the recovery of trade routes. In terms of health sector this means that global demand and supply of medical goods, services and pharmaceuticals remains largely driven by Chinese domestic developments. Furthermore, Chinese domestic manufacturing and sales of decent quality medical devices and services have grown exponentially. Some temporary pitfalls and increasing in rural-urban inequalities in equity of access and affordability of medical care and pharmaceuticals did take place. Despite these difficulties to generate a balanced development strategy for the largest global market, this is a clear path upwards. Further upcoming improvements expanding health insurance coverage are in strong demand for certain layers of the society. Domestic bottleneck weaknesses yet remain manufacturing, import and market penetration of cutting-edge pharmaceuticals such as monoclonal antibodies and targeted oncology agents. Yet some of these obstacles are likely to be overcome in foreseeable future with the adoption of responsible strategies by governmental agencies in health care arena.

Future health expenditure in the BRICS countries: a forecasting analysis for 2035.

BACKGROUND: Accelerated globalization especially in the late 1980s has provided opportunities for economic progress in the world of emerging economies. The BRICS nations' economies are distinguishable from other emerging economies due to their rate of expansion and sheer size. As a result of their economic prosperity, health spending in the BRICS countries has been increasing. However, health security is still a distant dream in these countries due to low public health spending, lack of pre-paid health coverage, and heavy out-of-pocket spending. There is a need for changing the health expenditure composition to address the challenge of regressive health spending and ensure equitable access to comprehensive healthcare services. OBJECTIVE: Present study examined the health expenditure trend among the BRICS from 2000 to 2019 and made predictions with an emphasis on public, pre-paid, and out-of-pocket expenditures for 2035. METHODS: Health expenditure data for 2000-2019 were taken from the OECD iLibrary database. The exponential smoothing model in R software (ets ()) was used for forecasting. RESULTS: Except for India and Brazil, all of the BRICS countries show a long-term increase in per capita PPP health expenditure. Only India's health expenditure is expected to decrease as a share of GDP after the completion of the SDG years. China accounts for the steepest rise in per capita expenditure until 2035, while Russia is expected to achieve the highest absolute values. CONCLUSION: The BRICS countries have the potential to be important leaders in a variety of social policies such as health. Each BRICS country has set a national pledge to the right to health and is working on health system reforms to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). The estimations of future health expenditures by these emerging market powers should help policymakers decide how to allocate resources to achieve this goal.

Double burden of vulnerability for refugees: conceptualization and policy solutions for financial protection in Iran using systems thinking approach.

INTRODUCTION: Iran is host to one of the world's largest and longest-standing refugee populations. Although Iran has initiated a basic health insurance scheme for refugees throughout the country since September 2015, the population coverage of this scheme is very low, and various factors have caused a significant percentage of refugees to still lack insurance coverage and often face financial hardships when receiving health services. In response, this study aimed to understand barriers to insurance coverage among refugees in Iran and propose effective policies that can address persistent gaps in financial protection. METHODS: This qualitative study was conducted in two phases. First, a review of policy documents and interviews with participants were conducted to investigate the common barriers and facilitators of effective insurance coverage for refugees in Iran. Then, a systems thinking approach was applied to visualize the common variables and interactions on the path to achieving financial protection for refugees. RESULTS: Findings showed that various factors, such as (1) household-based premium for refugees, (2) considering a waiting time to be eligible for insurance benefits, (3) determining high premiums for non-vulnerable groups and (4) a deep difference between the health services tariffs of the public and private service delivery sectors in Iran, have caused the coverage of health insurance for non-vulnerable refugees to be challenging. Furthermore, some policy solutions were found to improve the health insurance coverage of refugees in Iran. These included removing household size from premium calculations, lowering current premium rates and getting monthly premiums from non-vulnerable refugees. CONCLUSIONS: A number of factors have caused health insurance coverage to be inaccessible for refugees, especially non-vulnerable refugees in Iran. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt effective policies to improve the health financing for the refugee with the aim of ensuring financial protection, taking into account the different actors and the interactions between them.

Influences of women empowerment indices on demand for childcare services: Evidence from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys.

This study examined the effect of various dimensions of women's empowerment on childcare use in Nigeria, utilizing information from five rounds of the National Demographic and Health Surveys. The analysis made use of both binary and multinomial logistic regression. The findings show that women who share household choices with their spouses were more likely to undertake postnatal care for their babies in either private or public hospitals compared to self-medication/others/traditional. Also, women who owned houses and those who participate in economic activities are significantly more inclined to use postnatal services for babies in health facilities. By implication, women empowerment is a significant factor to consider in improving childcare services in Nigeria. This suggests that in order to improve the health of children, women's inputs in household decision-making should be accommodated, while efforts should be made to enhance household socioeconomic position, and support mothers to have formal education. The findings also suggest that promoting women's empowerment can play a crucial role in increasing the demand for formal childcare services.

Cette étude a examiné l'effet de diverses dimensions de l'autonomisation des femmes sur le recours aux services de garde d'enfants au Nigéria, en utilisant les informations provenant de cinq séries d'enquêtes nationales sur la démographie et la santé. L'analyse a fait appel à la régression logistique binaire et multinomiale. Les résultats montrent que les femmes qui partagent les choix de ménage avec leur conjoint étaient plus susceptibles d'entreprendre des soins postnatals pour leur bébé dans des hôpitaux privés ou publics que par l'automédication/autres/traditionnels. En outre, les femmes qui possèdent une maison et celles qui participent à des activités économiques sont beaucoup plus enclines à recourir aux services postnatals pour les bébés dans les établissements de santé. Par conséquent, l'autonomisation des femmes est un facteur important à prendre en compte dans l'amélioration des services de garde d'enfants au Nigeria. Cela suggère que pour améliorer la santé des enfants, la contribution des femmes à la prise de décision au sein du ménage doit être prise en compte, tandis que des efforts doivent être déployés pour améliorer la position socioéconomique du ménage et aider les mères à suivre une éducation formelle. Les résultats suggèrent également que la promotion de l'autonomisation des femmes peut jouer un rôle crucial dans l'augmentation de la demande de services formels de garde d'enfants.

Predictors of loss due to pharmaceutical fraud: evidence from the U.S.

BACKGROUND: Globally and in the U.S. in particular, pharmaceutical fraud account for a large number out of all crimes in health care, which result into severe costs to the society. The Academy of Managed Care Pharmacists (Fraud, waste, and abuse in prescription drug benefits. 2019. Posted May 20. https://www.amcp.org/policy-advocacy/policy-advocacy-focus-areas/where-we-stand-position-statements/fraud-waste-and-abuse-prescription-drug-benefits .) estimate that pharmacy fraud is 1% of costs, therefore estimating that pharmacy fraud costs at $3.5 billion, given that pharmacy costs are $358 billion (Statista. Prescription drug expenditure in the United States from 1960 to 2020. 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/184914/prescription-drug-expenditures-in-the-us-since-1960/ ). AIM: This exploratory study aims to demonstrate a fraudster's profile as well as to estimate average consequences in terms of costs and identify the loss predictors' hierarchy in the pharmaceutical industry in the U.S. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the Corporate Prosecution Registry and mixed-effects models are utilized for this purpose. The dataset covers years 2001-2020 and 75 cases, falling into one of the following broad sub-categories: misbranding, counterfeit, off-label use of drugs/deceptive marketing; violation of the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act. RESULTS: The main factors positively associated with loss due to pharmaceutical fraud are: (i) duration of , and (ii) the scheme and scheme being executed at a U.S. public company. Surprisingly, presence of collusion negatively and significantly effects the cost. Potential factors include: (a) principal perpetrator being a white American and/or male, and (b) number of employees at individual and organizational level respectively. CONCLUSION: This study empirically justifies considering loss, due to pharmaceutical fraud, from a multi-level perspective. Identified profiles of a typical fraudster helped to elaborate on specific practical recommendations aimed at pharmaceutical fraud prevention in the U.S.

Comparison of the healthcare system of Chile and Brazil: strengths, inefficiencies, and expenditures.

BACKGROUND: Governments in Latin America are constantly facing the problem of managing scarce resources to satisfy alternative needs, such as housing, education, food, and healthcare security. Those needs, combined with increasing crime levels, require financial resources to be solved. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this review was to characterizar the health system and health expenditure of a large country (Brazil) and a small country (Chile) and identify some of the challenges these two countries face in improving the health services of their population. METHODS: A literature review was conducted by searching journals, databases, and other electronic resources to identify articles and research publications describing health systems in Brazil and Chile. RESULTS: The review showed that the economic restriction and the economic cycle have an impact on the funding of the public health system. This result was true for the Brazilian health system after 2016, despite the change to a unique health system one decade earlier. In the case of Chile, there are different positions about which one is the best health system: a dual public and private or just public one. As a result, a referendum on September 4, 2022, of a new constitution, which incorporated a unique health system, was rejected. At the same time, the Government ended the copayment in the public health system in September 2022, excluding illnesses referred to the private sector. Another issue detected was the fragility of the public and private sector coverage due to the lack of funding. CONCLUSIONS: The health care system in Chile and Brazil has improved in the last decades. However, the public healthcare systems still need additional funding and efficiency improvement to respond to the growing health requirements needed from the population.

Future health spending forecast in leading emerging BRICS markets in 2030: health policy implications.

BACKGROUND: The leading emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are increasingly shaping the landscape of the global health sector demand and supply for medical goods and services. BRICS' share of global health spending and future projections will play a prominent role during the 2020s. The purpose of the current research was to examine the decades-long underlying historical trends in BRICS countries' health spending and explore these data as the grounds for reliable forecasting of their health expenditures up to 2030. METHODS: BRICS' health spending data spanning 1995-2017 were extracted from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Financing Global Health 2019 database. Total health expenditure, government, prepaid private and out-of-pocket spending per capita and gross domestic product (GDP) share of total health spending were forecasted for 2018-2030. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to obtain future projections based on time series analysis. RESULTS: Per capita health spending in 2030 is projected to be as follows: Brazil, $1767 (95% prediction interval [PI] 1615, 1977); Russia, $1933 (95% PI 1549, 2317); India, $468 (95% PI 400.4, 535); China, $1707 (95% PI 1079, 2334); South Africa, $1379 (95% PI 755, 2004). Health spending as a percentage of GDP in 2030 is projected as follows: Brazil, 8.4% (95% PI 7.5, 9.4); Russia, 5.2% (95% PI 4.5, 5.9); India, 3.5% (95% PI 2.9%, 4.1%); China, 5.9% (95% PI 4.9, 7.0); South Africa, 10.4% (95% PI 5.5, 15.3). CONCLUSIONS: All BRICS countries show a long-term trend towards increasing their per capita spending in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). India and Russia are highly likely to maintain stable total health spending as a percentage of GDP until 2030. China, as a major driver of global economic growth, will be able to significantly expand its investment in the health sector across an array of indicators. Brazil is the only large nation whose health expenditure as a percentage of GDP is about to contract substantially during the third decade of the twenty-first century. The steepest curve of increased per capita spending until 2030 seems to be attributable to India, while Russia should achieve the highest values in absolute terms. Health policy implications of long-term trends in health spending indicate the need for health technology assessment dissemination among the BRICS ministries of health and national health insurance funds. Matters of cost-effective allocation of limited resources will remain a core challenge in 2030 as well.

Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability.

BACKGROUND: With an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services. METHODS: The total population by sex and age groups, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life-expectancies at birth and Potential Support Ratio PSR (persons aged 20-64 years per person 65+ years) are projected probabilistically by the year 2100 using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations' population data for Greece and Cyprus from the period of 1950 to 2015. RESULTS: The TFR is projected to be around 1.5 children per woman in 2050 and around 1.75 in 2100 for both countries, with all values of prediction intervals being around or below the Replacement level fertility. PSR is expected to decrease remarkably and be 2.5 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100 for Cyprus while for Greece it will be around 1.5 for both years 2050 and 2100. Life-expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 87 years for women in 2050 and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100 for both countries. The share of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase in both countries and be the one third of the population by 2100. CONCLUSIONS: Greece and Cyprus will acquire the characteristics of an aging population, putting a significance pressure on the social and health systems of both countries. Both countries should reform their social and health policy agenda to confront population aging and its consequence. They should adopt fertility incentives and family policies to increase fertility and migrants' inclusiveness policies to improve the demographic structure and the economic activity. The national health systems should promote prevention strategies at the primary health sector and promote healthy aging while health research policy should aim to promote research in innovative technologies and digital health to create assistive technology for self-care and greater independence of older people.

Cost-effectiveness and resource allocation (CERA) 18 years of evolution: maturity of adulthood and promise beyond tomorrow.

Since its inception in 2003, Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation journal has come a long way over the past 18 years. Possibly much longer than many of its contemporaries in the blossoming science of health economics might have anticipated. Today, entering 2020 it celebrates the Age of Maturity. We believe that in the third decade of XXI century the interdisciplinary science of health economics, will rejuvenate and come back to us younger than ever from its early historical roots almost a century ago. The spreading of economic globalization in several distinctive ways, either led by multinational business corporations or newly emerged Asian leadership, or both, is likely to make challenges for contemporary health systems far more serious. The fourth industrial revolution (cyber physical systems and artificial intelligence technology) and accelerated innovation in the field of E-Health and digital health, will probably change the workflow in medical and health care, and inevitably transform the labour market in the upcoming decades. So, let us be up to the task. Let us provide academic centres, industry-sponsored pharmaceutical and medical device innovation hubs, and governing authorities alike, with a powerful forum for debate on cost-effective resource allocation in the years to come.

Real GDP growth rates and healthcare spending - comparison between the G7 and the EM7 countries.

BACKGROUND: Accelerated globalisation has substantially contributed to the rise of emerging markets worldwide. The G7 and Emerging Markets Seven (EM7) behaved in significantly different macroeconomic ways before, during, and after the 2008 Global Crisis. Average real GDP growth rates remained substantially higher among the EM7, while unemployment rates changed their patterns after the crisis. Since 2017, however, approximately one half of the worldwide economic growth is attributable to the EM7, and only a quarter to the G7. This paper aims to analyse the association between the health spending and real GDP growth in the G7 and the EM7 countries. RESULTS: In terms of GDP growth, the EM7 exhibited a higher degree of resilience during the 2008 crisis, compared to the G7. Unemployment in the G7 nations was rising significantly, compared to pre-recession levels, but, in the EM7, it remained traditionally high. In the G7, the austerity (measured as a percentage of GDP) significantly decreased the public health expenditure, even more so than in the EM7. Out-of-pocket health expenditure grew at a far more concerning pace in the EM7 compared to the G7 during the crisis, exposing the vulnerability of households living close to the poverty line. Regression analysis demonstrated that, in the G7, real GDP growth had a positive impact on out-of-pocket expenditure, measured as a percentage of current health expenditure, expressed as a percentage of GDP (CHE). In the EM7, it negatively affected CHE, CHE per capita, and out-of-pocket expenditure per capita. CONCLUSION: The EM7 countries demonstrated stronger endurance, withstanding the consequences of the crisis as compared to the G7 economies. Evidence of this was most visible in real growth and unemployment rates, before, during and after the crisis. It influenced health spending patterns in both groups, although they tended to diverge instead of converge in several important areas.

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury. RESULTS: Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change. CONCLUSIONS: While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

Population aging and migration - history and UN forecasts in the EU-28 and its east and south near neighborhood - one century perspective 1950-2050.

BACKGROUND: There is a gap in knowledge on long term pace of population aging acceleration and related net-migration rate changes in WHO European Region and its adjacent MENA countries. We decided to compare European Union (EU-28) region with the EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South in terms of these two essential features of third demographic transition. One century long perspective dating back to both historical data and towards reliable future forecasts was observed. METHODS: United Nation's Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates on indicators of population aging and migration were observed. Time horizon adopted was 1950-2050. Targeted 44 countries belong to either one of three regions named by EU diplomacy as: European Union or EU-28, EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East (ENP East) and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South (ENP South). RESULTS: European Union region currently experiences most advanced stage of demographic aging. The latter one is the ENP East region dominated by Slavic nations whose fertility decline continues since the USSR Era back in late 1980s. ENP South region dominated by Arab League nations remains rather young compared to their northern counterparts. However, as the Third Demographic Transition is inevitably coming to these societies they remain the spring of youth and positive net emigration rate. Probably the most prominent change will be the extreme fall of total fertility rate (children per woman) in ENP South countries (dominantly Arab League) from 6.72 back in 1950 to medium-scenario forecasted 2.10 in 2050. In the same time net number of migrants in the EU28 (both sexes combined) will grow from - 91,000 in 1950 to + 394,000 in 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Long term migration from Eastern Europe westwards and from MENA region northwards is historically present for many decades dating back deep into the Cold War Era. Contemporary large-scale migrations outsourcing from Arab League nations towards rich European Protestant North is probably the peak of an iceberg in long migration routes history. However, in the decades to come acceleration of aging is likely to question sustainability of such movements of people.