Long-term biogeographical processes dominate patterns of genetic diversity in a wingless grasshopper despite substantial recent habitat fragmentation.

Low-vagility species may hold strong genetic signatures of past biogeographical processes but are also vulnerable to habitat loss. Flightless grasshoppers of the morabine group were once widespread in southeastern Australia, including Tasmania, but are becoming restricted to remnant patches of vegetation, with local ranges impacted by agriculture and development as well as management. Habitat fragmentation can generate genetically differentiated "island" populations with low genetic variation. However, following revegetation, populations could be re-established, and gene flow increased. Here we characterize single nucleotide polymorphism-based genetic variation in a widespread chromosomal race of the morabine Vandiemenella viatica (race 19) to investigate the genetic health of remnant populations and to provide guidelines for restoration efforts. We update the distribution of this race to new sites in Victoria and Tasmania, and show that V. viatica populations from northern Tasmania and eastern Victoria have reduced genetic variation compared to other mainland populations. In contrast, there was no effect of habitat fragment size on genetic variation. Tasmanian V. viatica populations fell into two groups, one connected genetically to eastern Victoria and the other connected to southwestern Victoria. Mainland populations showed isolation by distance. These patterns are consistent with expectations from past biogeographical processes rather than local recent population fragmentation and emphasize the importance of small local reserves in preserving genetic variation. The study highlights how genomic analyses can combine information on genetic variability and population structure to identify biogeographical patterns within a species, which in turn can inform decisions on potential source populations for translocations.

An evaluation of a biophysical model for predicting avian thermoregulation in the heat.

Survival and reproduction of endotherms depend on their ability to balance energy and water exchange with their environment, avoiding lethal deficits and maximising gains for growth and reproduction. At high environmental temperatures, diurnal endotherms maintain body temperature (Tb) below lethal limits via physiological and behavioural adjustments. Accurate models of these processes are crucial for predicting effects of climate variability on avifauna. We evaluated the performance of a biophysical model (NicheMapR) for predicting evaporative water loss (EWL), resting metabolic rate (RMR) and Tb at environmental temperatures approaching or exceeding normothermic Tb for three arid-zone birds: southern yellow-billed hornbill (Tockus leucomelas), southern pied babbler (Turdoides bicolor) and southern fiscal (Lanius collaris). We simulated metabolic chamber conditions and compared model outputs with thermal physiology data collected at air temperatures (Tair) between 10 and 50°C. Additionally, we determined the minimum data needed to accurately model diurnal birds' thermoregulatory responses to Tair using sensitivity analyses. Predicted EWL, metabolic rate and Tb corresponded tightly with observed values across Tair, with only minor discrepancies for EWL in two species at Tair≈35°C. Importantly, the model captured responses at Tair=30-40°C, a range spanning threshold values for sublethal fitness costs associated with sustained hot weather in arid-zone birds. Our findings confirm how taxon-specific parameters together with biologically relevant morphological data can accurately model avian thermoregulatory responses to heat. Biophysical models can be used as a non-invasive way to predict species' sensitivity to climate, accounting for organismal (e.g. physiology) and environmental factors (e.g. microclimates).

Three questions about the eco-physiology of overwintering underground.

In cold environments ectotherms can be dormant underground for long periods. In 1941 Cowles proposed an ecological trade-off involving the depth at which ectotherms overwintered: on warm days, only shallow reptiles could detect warming soils and become active; but on cold days, they risked freezing. Cowles discovered that most reptiles at a desert site overwintered at shallow depths. To extend his study, we compiled hourly soil temperatures (5 depths, 90 sites, continental USA) and physiological data, and simulated consequences of overwintering at fixed depths. In warm localities shallow ectotherms have lowest energy costs and largest reserves in spring, but in cold localities, they risk freezing. Ectotherms shifting hourly to the coldest depth potentially reduce energy expenses, but paradoxically sometimes have higher expenses than those at fixed depths. Biophysical simulations for a desert site predict that shallow ectotherms have increased opportunities for mid-winter activity but need to move deep to digest captured food. Our simulations generate testable predictions to eco-physiological questions but rely on physiological responses to acute cold rather than to natural cooling profiles. Furthermore, natural-history data to test most predictions do not exist. Thus, our simulation approach uncovers knowledge gaps and suggests research agendas for studying ectotherms overwintering underground.

Tracheal branching in ants is area-decreasing, violating a central assumption of network transport models.

The structure of tubular transport networks is thought to underlie much of biological regularity, from individuals to ecosystems. A core assumption of transport network models is either area-preserving or area-increasing branching, such that the summed cross-sectional area of all child branches is equal to or greater than the cross-sectional area of their respective parent branch. For insects, the most diverse group of animals, the assumption of area-preserving branching of tracheae is, however, based on measurements of a single individual and an assumption of gas exchange by diffusion. Here we show that ants exhibit neither area-preserving nor area-increasing branching in their abdominal tracheal systems. We find for 20 species of ants that the sum of child tracheal cross-sectional areas is typically less than that of the parent branch (area-decreasing). The radius, rather than the area, of the parent branch is conserved across the sum of child branches. Interpretation of the tracheal system as one optimized for the release of carbon dioxide, while readily catering to oxygen demand, explains the branching pattern. Our results, together with widespread demonstration that gas exchange in insects includes, and is often dominated by, convection, indicate that for generality, network transport models must include consideration of systems with different architectures.

A general model of the thermal constraints on the world's most destructive locust, Schistocerca gregaria.

All terrestrial ectotherms are constrained to some degree by their thermal environment and the extent to which they can behaviorally buffer variable thermal conditions. New biophysical modeling methods (NicheMapR) allow the calculation of the body temperature of thermoregulating animals anywhere in the world from first principles, but require detailed observational data for parameterization and testing. Here we describe the thermoregulatory biology of marching bands of the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria, in the Sahara Desert of Mauritania where extreme heat and strong diurnal fluctuations are a major constraint on activity and physiological processes. Using a thermal infrared camera in the field, we showed that gregarious nymphs altered the microhabitats they used, as well as postural thermoregulatory behaviors, to maintain relatively high body temperature (nearly 40°C). Field and laboratory experiments demonstrated that the preferred body temperature accelerated digestive rates. Migratory bands frequently left foraging sites with full guts before consuming all vegetation and moved to another habitat before emptying their foregut. Thus, the repertoire for behavioral thermoregulation in the desert locust strongly facilitates foraging and digestion rates, which may accelerate developmental rates and increase survival. We used our data to successfully parameterize a general biophysical model of thermoregulatory behavior that could capture hourly body temperature and activity at our remote site using globally available environmental forcing data. This modeling approach provides a stronger basis for forecasting thermal constraints on locust outbreaks under current and future climates.

Future winters present a complex energetic landscape of decreased costs and reduced risk for a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus).

Winter climate warming is rapidly leading to changes in snow depth and soil temperatures across mid- and high-latitude ecosystems, with important implications for survival and distribution of species that overwinter beneath the snow. Amphibians are a particularly vulnerable group to winter climate change because of the tight coupling between their body temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we used a mechanistic microclimate model coupled to an animal biophysics model to predict the spatially explicit effects of future climate change on the wintering energetics of a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), across its distributional range in the eastern United States. Our below-the-snow microclimate simulations were driven by dynamically downscaled climate projections from a regional climate model coupled to a one-dimensional model of the Laurentian Great Lakes. We found that warming soil temperatures and decreasing winter length have opposing effects on Wood Frog winter energy requirements, leading to geographically heterogeneous implications for Wood Frogs. While energy expenditures and peak body ice content were predicted to decline in Wood Frogs across most of our study region, we identified an area of heightened energetic risk in the northwestern part of the Great Lakes region where energy requirements were predicted to increase. Because Wood Frogs rely on body stores acquired in fall to fuel winter survival and spring breeding, increased winter energy requirements have the potential to impact local survival and reproduction. Given the geographically variable and intertwined drivers of future under-snow conditions (e.g., declining snow depths, rising air temperatures, shortening winters), spatially explicit assessments of species energetics and risk will be important to understanding the vulnerability of subnivium-adapted species.

The roles of acclimation and behaviour in buffering climate change impacts along elevational gradients.

The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation and behavioural thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs Rana temporaria along elevational gradients. Furthermore, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. Our analyses revealed that high-elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favour more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioural adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high-elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioural thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates.

Microclimate modelling of beach sand temperatures reveals high spatial and temporal variation at sea turtle rookeries.

The continual development of ecological models and availability of high-resolution gridded climate surfaces have stimulated studies that link climate variables to functional traits of organisms. A primary constraint of these studies is the ability to reliably predict the microclimate that an organism experiences using macroscale climate inputs. This is particularly important in regions where access to empirical information is limited. Here, we contrast correlative models based on both ambient and sea surface temperatures to mechanistic modelling approaches to predict beach sand temperatures at depths relevant to sea turtle nesting. We show that mechanistic models are congruent with correlative models at predicting sand temperatures. We used these predictions to explore thermal variation across 46 mainland and island beaches that span the geographical range of sea turtle nesting in Western Australia. Using high resolution gridded climate surfaces and site-specific soil reflectance, we predict almost 9 °C variation in average annual temperatures between beaches, and nearly 10 °C variation in average temperatures during turtle nesting seasons. Validation of models demonstrated that predictions were typically within 2 °C of observations and, although most sites had high correlations (r2 > 0.7), predictive capacity varied between sites. An advantage of the mechanistic model demonstrated here is that it can be used to explore the impacts of climate change on sea turtle nesting beach temperatures as, unlike correlative models, it can be forced with novel combinations of environmental variables.

Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications.

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.

Climate is a strong predictor of near-infrared reflectance but a poor predictor of colour in butterflies.

Colour variation across climatic gradients is a common ecogeographical pattern; yet there is long-standing contention over underlying causes, particularly selection for thermal benefits. We tested the evolutionary association between climate gradients and reflectance of near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths, which influence heat gain but are not visible to animals. We measured ultraviolet (UVA), visible (Vis) and NIR reflectance from calibrated images of 372 butterfly specimens from 60 populations (49 species, five families) spanning the Australian continent. Consistent with selection for thermal benefits, the association between climate and reflectance was stronger for NIR than UVA-Vis wavelengths. Furthermore, climate predicted reflectance of the thorax and basal wing, which are critical to thermoregulation; but it did not predict reflectance of the entire wing, which has a variable role in thermoregulation depending on basking behaviour. These results provide evidence that selection for thermal benefits has shaped the reflectance properties of butterflies.

Integrating mechanistic and correlative niche models to unravel range-limiting processes in a temperate amphibian.

Insights into the causal mechanisms that limit species distributions are likely to improve our ability to anticipate species range shifts in response to climate change. For species with complex life histories, a mechanistic understanding of how climate affects different lifecycle stages may be crucial for making accurate forecasts. Here, we use mechanistic niche modeling (NicheMapR) to derive "proximate" (mechanistic) variables for tadpole, juvenile, and adult Rana temporaria. We modeled the hydroperiod, and maximum and minimum temperatures of shallow (30 cm) ponds, as well as activity windows for juveniles and adults. We then used those ("proximate") variables in correlative ecological niche models (Maxent) to assess their role in limiting the species' current distribution, and to investigate the potential effects of climate change on R. temporaria across Europe. We further compared the results with a model based on commonly used macroclimatic ("distal") layers (i.e., bioclimatic layers from WorldClim). The maximum temperature of the warmest month (a macroclimatic variable) and maximum pond temperatures (a mechanistic variable) were the most important range-limiting factors, and maximum temperature thresholds were consistent with the observed upper thermal limit of R. temporaria tadpoles. We found that range shift forecasts in central Europe are far more pessimistic when using distal macroclimatic variables, compared to projections based on proximate mechanistic variables. However, both approaches predicted extensive decreases in climatic suitability in southern Europe, which harbors a significant fraction of the species' genetic diversity. We show how mechanistic modeling provides ways to depict gridded layers that directly reflect the microenvironments experienced by organisms at continental scales, and to reconstruct those predictors without extrapolation under novel future conditions. Furthermore, incorporating those predictors in correlative ecological niche models can help shed light on range-limiting processes, and can have substantial impacts on predictions of climate-induced range shifts.

Realized niche shift during a global biological invasion.

Accurate forecasts of biological invasions are crucial for managing invasion risk but are hampered by niche shifts resulting from evolved environmental tolerances (fundamental niche shifts) or the presence of novel biotic and abiotic conditions in the invaded range (realized niche shifts). Distinguishing between these kinds of niche shifts is impossible with traditional, correlative approaches to invasion forecasts, which exclusively consider the realized niche. Here we overcome this challenge by combining a physiologically mechanistic model of the fundamental niche with correlative models based on the realized niche to study the global invasion of the cane toad Rhinella marina. We find strong evidence that the success of R. marina in Australia reflects a shift in the species' realized niche, as opposed to evolutionary shifts in range-limiting traits. Our results demonstrate that R. marina does not fill its fundamental niche in its native South American range and that areas of niche unfilling coincide with the presence of a closely related species with which R. marina hybridizes. Conversely, in Australia, where coevolved taxa are absent, R. marina largely fills its fundamental niche in areas behind the invasion front. The general approach taken here of contrasting fundamental and realized niche models provides key insights into the role of biotic interactions in shaping range limits and can inform effective management strategies not only for invasive species but also for assisted colonization under climate change.

Thermal-safety margins and the necessity of thermoregulatory behavior across latitude and elevation.

Physiological thermal-tolerance limits of terrestrial ectotherms often exceed local air temperatures, implying a high degree of thermal safety (an excess of warm or cold thermal tolerance). However, air temperatures can be very different from the equilibrium body temperature of an individual ectotherm. Here, we compile thermal-tolerance limits of ectotherms across a wide range of latitudes and elevations and compare these thermal limits both to air and to operative body temperatures (theoretically equilibrated body temperatures) of small ectothermic animals during the warmest and coldest times of the year. We show that extreme operative body temperatures in exposed habitats match or exceed the physiological thermal limits of most ectotherms. Therefore, contrary to previous findings using air temperatures, most ectotherms do not have a physiological thermal-safety margin. They must therefore rely on behavior to avoid overheating during the warmest times, especially in the lowland tropics. Likewise, species living at temperate latitudes and in alpine habitats must retreat to avoid lethal cold exposure. Behavioral plasticity of habitat use and the energetic consequences of thermal retreats are therefore critical aspects of species' vulnerability to climate warming and extreme events.

Color Change for Thermoregulation versus Camouflage in Free-Ranging Lizards.

Animal coloration has multiple functions including thermoregulation, camouflage, and social signaling, and the requirements of each function may sometimes conflict. Many terrestrial ectotherms accommodate the multiple functions of color through color change. However, the relative importance of these functions and how color-changing species accommodate them when they do conflict are poorly understood because we lack data on color change in the wild. Here, we show that the color of individual radio-tracked bearded dragon lizards, Pogona vitticeps, correlates strongly with background color and less strongly, but significantly, with temperature. We found no evidence that individuals simultaneously optimize camouflage and thermoregulation by choosing light backgrounds when hot or dark backgrounds when cold. In laboratory experiments, lizards showed both UV-visible (300-700 nm) and near-infrared (700-2,100 nm) reflectance changes in response to different background and temperature treatments, consistent with camouflage and thermoregulatory functions, respectively, but with no interaction between the two. Overall, our results suggest that wild bearded dragons change color to improve both thermoregulation and camouflage but predominantly adjust for camouflage, suggesting that compromising camouflage may entail a greater potential immediate survival cost.

Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia.

Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to, persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental conditions. Most forecasts of climate change refugia for species are based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) using long-term climate averages, projected to future climate scenarios. Limitations of such methods include the need to extrapolate into novel environments and uncertainty regarding the extent to which proximate variables included in the model capture processes driving distribution limits (and thus can be assumed to provide reliable predictions under new conditions). These limitations are well documented; however, their impact on the quality of climate refugia predictions is difficult to quantify. Here, we develop a detailed bioenergetics model for the koala. It indicates that range limits are driven by heat-induced water stress, with the timing of rainfall and heat waves limiting the koala in the warmer parts of its range. We compare refugia predictions from the bioenergetics model with predictions from a suite of competing correlative SDMs under a range of future climate scenarios. SDMs were fitted using combinations of long-term climate and weather extremes variables, to test how well each set of predictions captures the knowledge embedded in the bioenergetics model. Correlative models produced broadly similar predictions to the bioenergetics model across much of the species' current range - with SDMs that included weather extremes showing highest congruence. However, predictions in some regions diverged significantly when projecting to future climates due to the breakdown in correlation between climate variables. We provide unique insight into the mechanisms driving koala distribution and illustrate the importance of subtle relationships between the timing of weather events, particularly rain relative to hot-spells, in driving species-climate relationships and distributions. By unpacking the mechanisms captured by correlative SDMs, we can increase our certainty in forecasts of climate change impacts on species.

Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects.

Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes.

Morphology and burrowing energetics of semi-fossorial skinks (Liopholis spp.).

Burrowing is an important form of locomotion in reptiles, but no study has examined the energetic cost of burrowing for reptiles. This is significant because burrowing is the most energetically expensive mode of locomotion undertaken by animals and many burrowing species therefore show specialisations for their subterranean lifestyle. We examined the effect of temperature and substrate characteristics (coarse sand or fine sand) on the net energetic cost of burrowing (NCOB) and burrowing rate in two species of the Egernia group of skinks (Liopholis striata and Liopholis inornata) compared with other burrowing animals. We further tested for morphological specialisations among burrowing species by comparing the relationship between body shape and retreat preference in Egernia group skinks. For L. striata and L. inornata, NCOB is 350 times more expensive than the predicted cost of pedestrian terrestrial locomotion. Temperature had a positive effect on burrowing rate for both species, and a negative effect on NCOB for L. striata but not L. inornata. Both NCOB and burrowing rate were independent of substrate type. Burrows constructed by skinks had a smaller cross-sectional area than those constructed by mammals of comparable mass, and NCOB of skinks was lower than that of mammals of similar mass. After accounting for body size, retreat preference was significantly correlated with body shape in Egernia group skinks. Species of Egernia group skinks that use burrows for retreats have narrower bodies and shorter front limbs than other species. We conclude that the morphological specialisations of burrowing skinks allow them to construct relatively narrow burrows, thereby reducing NCOB and the total cost of constructing their burrow retreats.

Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?

Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability.

Ontogenetic and interspecific metabolic scaling in insects.

Design constraints imposed by increasing size cause metabolic rate in animals to increase more slowly than mass. This ubiquitous biological phenomenon is referred to as metabolic scaling. However, mechanistic explanations for interspecific metabolic scaling do not apply to ontogenetic size changes within a species, implying different mechanisms for scaling phenomena. Here, we show that the dynamic energy budget theory approach of compartmentalizing biomass into reserve and structural components provides a unified framework for understanding ontogenetic and interspecific metabolic scaling. We formulate the theory for insects and show that it can account for ontogenetic metabolic scaling during the embryonic and larval phases, as well as the U-shaped respiration curve during pupation. After correcting for the predicted ontogenetic scaling effects, which we show to follow universal curves, the scaling of respiration between species is approximated by a three-quarters power law, supporting past empirical studies on insect metabolic scaling and our theoretical predictions. The ability to explain ontogenetic and interspecific metabolic scaling effects under one consistent framework suggests that the partitioning of biomass into reserve and structure is a necessary foundation to a general metabolic theory.

Sensitivity to thermal extremes in Australian Drosophila implies similar impacts of climate change on the distribution of widespread and tropical species.

Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid-latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002-2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species' functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we find that both tropical and widespread Drosophila species will face a similar proportional reduction in distribution range under future warming.