Sources and uncertainties of future global drought risk with ISIMIP2b climate scenarios and socioeconomic indicators.

The severity of potential drought impacts is influenced not only by physical characteristics, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature but also by local socioeconomic conditions that influence a region's exposure and vulnerability. This study aims to demonstrate projected future global drought risk, which is quantified based on indicators representing three risk components, namely, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Drought hazard is evaluated using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index. Drought exposure considers population and agricultural land use, and drought vulnerability accounts for gross domestic product, total water storage, and water consumption. This global-scale study was conducted for the historical and future periods of 1975-2005 and 2070-2099, respectively, and employed three combined scenarios consisting of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with datasets from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). To evaluate the proposed approach, the results obtained for the historical period were compared with drought records. The projections suggest that in addition to increasing drought hazards caused by climate change, populous regions, or areas heavily dependent on agriculture are at a higher risk than other regions because of high water consumption levels. The contributions analysis indicates that agricultural land use is the largest contributor to drought risk, except for Africa, where the population makes the largest contribution. Model uncertainty of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Hydrological Models (HMs) is dominant compared to the RCP and SSP scenarios, with uncertainty from the GCMs the most dominant. This study provides possible depictions and their uncertainties of future drought risks and can assist decision-makers in developing better adaptation and mitigation strategies for climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic changes.

Assessment of regional threats to human water security adopting the global framework: A case study in South Korea.

Water resources have been threatened by climate change, increasing population, land cover changes in watersheds, urban expansion, and intensive use of freshwater resources. Thus, it is critical to understand the sustainability and security of water resources. This study aims to understand how we can adequately and efficiently quantify water use sustainability at both regional and global scales with an indicator-based approach. A case study of South Korea was examined with the framework widely used to quantify global human water threats. We estimated the human water threat with both global and local datasets, showing that the water security index using global data was adequately correlated with the index for regional data. However, particularly poor associations were found in the investment benefit factors. Furthermore, we examined several different aspects of the index with the local datasets as they have relatively high spatial and temporal resolution. For example, we used cropland percentage, population and moderate water use as surrogate indicators instead of employing the approximately 20 original indicators, and we presented a regression model that was able to capture the spatial variations from the original threat index to some extent. This finding implies that it would be possible to predict water security or sustainability using existing indicator datasets for future periods, although it would require regionally developed relationships between water security and such indicators.