Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) range contraction and expansion in Europe under changing climate.

Robinia pseudoacacia is one of the most frequent non-native species in Europe. It is a fast-growing tree of high economic and cultural importance. On the other hand, it is an invasive species, causing changes in soil chemistry and light regime, and consequently altering the plant communities. Previously published models developed for the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia concerned 2070, and were based mainly on data from Western and Central Europe; here we extended these findings and included additional data from Eastern Europe. To fill the gap in current knowledge of R. pseudoacacia distribution and improve the reliability of forecasts, we aimed to (i) determine the extent to which the outcome of range modeling will be affected by complementing R. pseudoacacia occurrence data with sites from Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe, (ii) identify and quantify the changes in the availability of climate niches for 2050 and 2070, and discuss their impacts on forest management and nature conservation. We showed that the majority of the range changes expected in 2070 will occur as early as 2050. In comparison to previous studies, we demonstrated a greater eastward shift of potential niches of this species and a greater decline of potential niches in Southern Europe. Consequently, future climatic conditions will likely favor the occurrence of R. pseudoacacia in Central and Northeastern Europe where this species is still absent or relatively rare. There, controlling the spread of R. pseudoacacia will require monitoring sources of invasion in the landscape and reducing the occurrence of this species. The expected effects of climate change will likely be observed 20 years earlier than previously forecasted. Hence we highlighted the urgent need for acceleration of policies aimed at climate change mitigation in Europe. Also, our results showed the need for using more complete distribution data to analyze potential niche models.

Did the late spring frost in 2007 and 2011 affect tree-ring width and earlywood vessel size in Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) in northern Poland?

Trees are sensitive to extreme weather and environmental conditions. This sensitivity is visible in tree-ring widths and cell structure. In our study, we hypothesized that the sudden frost noted at the beginning of May in both 2007 and 2011 affected cambial activity and, consequently, the number and size of vessels in the tree rings. It was decided to test this hypothesis after damage to leaves was observed. The applied response function model did not show any significant relationships between spring temperature and growth. However, this method uses average values for long periods and sometimes misses the short-term effects. This is why we decided to study each ring separately, comparing them with rings unaffected by the late frost. Our study showed that the short-term effect of sudden frost in late spring did not affect tree rings and selected cell parameters. The most likely reasons for this are (i) cambial activity producing the earlywood vessels before the occurrence of the observed leaf damage, (ii) the forest micro-climate protecting the trees from the harsh frost and (iii) the temperature decline being too short-lived an event to affect the oaks. On the other hand, the visible damage may be occasional and not affect cambium activity and tree vitality at all. We conclude that oak is well-adapted to this phenomenon.

Tree rings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a source of information about past climate in northern Poland.

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) is a very common tree in Polish forests, and therefore was widely used as timber. A relatively large amount of available wood allowed a long-term chronology to be built up and used as a source of information about past climate. The analysis of reconstructed indexed values of mean temperature in 51-year moving intervals allowed the recognition of the coldest periods in the years 1207-1346, 1383-1425, 1455-1482, 1533-1574, 1627-1646, and 1694-1785. The analysis of extreme wide and narrow rings forms a complementary method of examining climatic data within tree rings. The tree ring widths, early wood and late wood widths of 16 samples were assessed during the period 1581-1676. The most apparent effect is noted in the dry summer of 1616. According to previous research and our findings, temperature from February to March seems to be one of the most stable climatic factors which influenced pine growth in Poland. Correlation coefficients in the calibration and validation procedure gave promising results for temperature reconstruction from the pine chronology.

Biotic threats for 23 major non-native tree species in Europe.

For non-native tree species with an origin outside of Europe a detailed compilation of enemy species including the severity of their attack is lacking up to now. We collected information on native and non-native species attacking non-native trees, i.e. type, extent and time of first observation of damage for 23 important non-native trees in 27 European countries. Our database includes about 2300 synthesised attack records (synthesised per biotic threat, tree and country) from over 800 species. Insects (49%) and fungi (45%) are the main observed biotic threats, but also arachnids, bacteria including phytoplasmas, mammals, nematodes, plants and viruses have been recorded. This information will be valuable to identify patterns and drivers of attacks, and trees with a lower current health risk to be considered for planting. In addition, our database will provide a baseline to which future impacts on non-native tree species could be compared with and thus will allow to analyse temporal trends of impacts.

Ecological drift and competitive interactions predict unique patterns in temporal fluctuations of population size.

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of higher-order competitive interactions in stabilizing population dynamics in multi-species communities. But how does the structure of competitive hierarchies affect population dynamics and extinction processes? We tackled this important question by using spatially explicit simulations of ecological drift (10 species in a homogeneous landscape of 64 patches) in which birth rates were influenced by interspecific competition. Specifically, we examined how transitive (linear pecking orders) and intransitive (pecking orders with loops) competitive hierarchies affected extinction rates and population dynamics in simulated communities through time. In comparison to a pure neutral model, an ecological drift model including transitive competition increased extinction rates, caused synchronous density-dependent population fluctuations, and generated a white-noise distribution of population sizes. In contrast, the drift model with intransitive competitive interactions decreased extinctions rates, caused asynchronous (compensatory) density-dependent population fluctuations, and generated a brown noise distribution of population sizes. We also explored the effect on community stability of more complex patterns of competitive interactions in which pairwise competitive relationships were assigned probabilistically. These probabilistic competition models also generated density-dependent trajectories and a brown noise distribution of population sizes. However, extinction rates and the degree of population synchrony were comparable to those observed in purely neutral communities. Collectively, our results confirm that intransitive competition has a strong and stabilizing effect on local populations in species-poor communities. This effect wanes with increasing species richness. Empirical assemblages characterized by brown spectral noise, density-dependent regulation, and asynchronous (compensatory) population fluctuations may indicate a signature of intransitive competitive interactions.

River Regulation Causes Rapid Changes in Relationships Between Floodplain Oak Growth and Environmental Variables.

The radial growth of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur), a species often ecologically dominating European deciduous forests, is closely tied up with local environmental variables. The oak tree-ring series usually contain a climatic and hydrologic signal that allows assessing the main drivers of tree growth in various ecosystems. Understanding the climate-growth relationship patterns in floodplains is important for providing insights into the species persistence and longevity in vulnerable riverine ecosystems experiencing human-induced hydrology alteration. Here, we use 139 years long instrumental records of local temperature, precipitation, and water levels in the Dnipro River in Kyiv to demonstrate that the implementation of river regulation has decoupled the established relationship between the radial growth of floodplain oak and local hydro-climatic conditions. Before the river flow has been altered by engineering modifications of 1965-1977, the water level in the Dnipro River was the key driver of oak radial growth, as reflected in the tree-ring width and earlywood width. The construction of two dams has altered the seasonal distribution of water level diminishing the positive effect of high water on oak growth and subsequently reversing this trend to negative, resulting from a seasonal ground water surplus. The decrease in the correlation between oak growth indices and the river's water level in April-June was unprecedentedly rapid and clearly distinguishable among other changes in the growth-to-climate relationship. Our findings further demonstrate that trees growing in areas exposed to urban development are the most susceptible to downside effects of river regulation.

Limitations at the Limit? Diminishing of Genetic Effects in Norway Spruce Provenance Trials.

Provenance trials are used to study the effects of tree origin on climate-growth relationships. Thereby, they potentially identify provenances which appear more resilient to anticipated climate change. However, when studying between provenance variability in growth behavior it becomes important to address potential effects related to site marginality in the context of provenance trials. In our study we focus on provenance-specific climate sensitivity manifested under marginal growth conditions. We hypothesized that the provenance effects are masked if trials are located at marginal environmental conditions of the natural species distribution. Under this framework, we investigate 10 Norway spruce provenances growing at two contrasting locations, i.e., a relatively drought-prone site in western Poland (at the climatic margin of Norway spruce's natural distribution) and a mild and moist site in north-eastern Poland (within its natural range). Combining principal component analysis with climate-growth relationships, we found distinguishable growth patterns and climate correlations among provenances. That is, at the mild and moist north-eastern site, we observed provenance-specific growth patterns and thus a varying drought susceptibility. In contrast, at the dryer western site, provenance-specific growth patterns were less pronounced and all provenances expressed a common and strong sensitivity to drought. Our results indicate that the genetic specificity of growth reactions diminishes toward the distributional margins of a given species. We conclude that the climate conditions at the margins of a species' distribution are constraining tree growth independently of tree origin. Because of this, the marginality of a site has to be considered when evaluating climate sensitivity of provenances within trials. As a consequence, the yet different responses of provenances to adverse growing conditions may synchronize under more extreme conditions in course of the anticipated climate change.

Does the Genotype Have a Significant Effect on the Formation of Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations? A Case Study Using Larix decidua from Northern Poland.

Intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) can imprint environmental conditions within the growing season and most of the research on IADFs has been focused on their climatic signal. However, to our knowledge, the genetic influence on the frequency and type of IADFs has not been evaluated. To understand if the genotype can affect the formation of IADFs we have used a common garden experiment using eight families of Larix decidua established in two neighboring forest stands in northern Poland. Four types of IADFs were identified using X-ray density profiles: latewood-like cells within earlywood (IADF-type E), latewood-like cells in the transition from early- to latewood (IADF type E+), earlywood-like cells within latewood (IADF-type L), and earlywood-like cells in the border zone between the previous and present annual ring (IADF-type L+). The influence of explanatory variables i.e., families, sites, and years on identified density fluctuations was analyzed using generalized estimating equations (GEE). We hypothesized that trees from different families will differ in terms of frequency and type of IADFs because each family will react to precipitation and temperature in a different way, depending on the origin of those trees. The most frequent fluctuation was E+ and L types on both sites. The most important factors in the formation of IADFs were the site and year, the last one reflecting the variable climatic conditions, with no significant effect of the family. However, the relation between the formation of IADFs and selected climate parameters was different between families. Although, our results did not give a significant effect of the genotype on the formation of IADFs, the different sensitivity to climatic parameters among different families indicate that there is a genetic influence.

Structure and Function of Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations: Mind the Gaps.

Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical, and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic and external factors, and their interaction during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1) the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2) the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3) the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events.