The effect of climate uncertainty on water management for long-run aquifer abundance.

The adaptation of agriculture to climate change depends on the ability to integrate irrigation practices into water management applications. This requires robust water use estimates and the evaluation of management practices as a tool to conserve water. We combine a landscape level agricultural management model that accounts for risk and uncertainty through climate change with an aquifer model. The modelling system produces estimates of the long run aquifer abundance for management scenarios for a study area in the Lower Mississippi River Basin, United States. Except in the driest climate outcome, the aquifer abundance rises over time. We find that the increase in the aquifer for most climate outcomes occurs through judicious crop choice and aquifer recharge followed by a use of on-farm reservoirs later in the study period. Our modelling points to the greatest sensitivity of the long run aquifer abundance to fluctuations in crop prices and production costs followed by the cost of surface water for aquifer recharge.

The Influence of a Climate Change Narrative on the Stated Preferences for Long-term Groundwater Management.

The literature identifies cultural values and beliefs as key drivers of climate change risk perception, but evidence is lacking about how media narratives and cultural values influence preferences for adapting to environmental consequences of climate change, including groundwater shortage. We elicited groundwater preferences using a choice experiment survey involving outcomes of the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer. We randomly assigned respondents to an individualistic cultural narrative about climate change to test for framing effects predicted by culturally congruent and incongruent messaging. Results suggest that culturally incongruent messaging (i.e., to non-individualists) emboldens opposition and makes promoted groundwater policies less tractable. This is instructive to policy makers that identifying different stakeholders and avoiding incongruent messages about climate change could improve the effectiveness of collaborative water governance.

Water Conservation with Managed Aquifer Recharge under Increased Drought Risk.

Economic analysis of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) typically focuses on identifying the quantity of water to add cost-effectively to natural rates of recharge. However, to the extent that MAR is successful, higher groundwater levels or at least slower depletion are likely to influence crop choice and groundwater pumping dynamics. Using a landscape-level model, we maximize farm net returns taking into account MAR and on-farm surface reservoir storage, crop choice, and the impacts of drought on groundwater use in Eastern Arkansas, USA, over 120 years. We find that drought frequency (risk) has a stronger influence on groundwater pumping and MAR use compared with drought severity. There is evidence of a substantial slippage, the percentage of the increase in groundwater use with versus without MAR divided by the MAR use, under a range of MAR cost and drought scenarios. Total slippage ranges from about 32 to 75% of total MAR water, indicating that only 68-25% of the MAR water raises groundwater levels. Even if the costs of MAR are relatively high and slippage is present, the total net returns to farms in this region are higher, and the variability in those returns are less with MAR.

Linking water quality and well-being for improved assessment and valuation of ecosystem services.

Despite broad recognition of the value of the goods and services provided by nature, existing tools for assessing and valuing ecosystem services often fall short of the needs and expectations of decision makers. Here we address one of the most important missing components in the current ecosystem services toolbox: a comprehensive and generalizable framework for describing and valuing water quality-related services. Water quality is often misrepresented as a final ecosystem service. We argue that it is actually an important contributor to many different services, from recreation to human health. We present a valuation approach for water quality-related services that is sensitive to different actions that affect water quality, identifies aquatic endpoints where the consequences of changing water quality on human well-being are realized, and recognizes the unique groups of beneficiaries affected by those changes. We describe the multiple biophysical and economic pathways that link actions to changes in water quality-related ecosystem goods and services and provide guidance to researchers interested in valuing these changes. Finally, we present a valuation template that integrates biophysical and economic models, links actions to changes in service provision and value estimates, and considers multiple sources of water quality-related ecosystem service values without double counting.

Landscape irrigation management for maintaining an aquifer and economic returns.

Expanding irrigated agriculture and dryer climatic conditions has led to large-scale withdrawals of groundwater and the decline in shallow aquifers. Policy makers must wrestle with the challenge of maintaining economic growth while conserving the groundwater resource. A spatially explicit landscape level model analyzes consequences of optimally chosen crop mix patterns on an aquifer and economic returns. The model of the groundwater use incorporates irrigation needs of the crops grown, initial aquifer thickness, hydro-conductivity of the aquifer, and distance to surrounding grid cells. The economic model incorporates the site specific yield, crop mix, and irrigation practice investments to predict economic returns. A tradeoff occurs between the volume of the aquifer and economic returns due to groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, but the farm's ability to grow profitable lower irrigation crops dampens the intensity of this tradeoff. Allowing for multiple unconventional irrigation practices that are yield increasing and water conserving significantly increases the economic returns of a given crop mix while maintaining the aquifer.

Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020).

Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and replacement on developed land in California communities using simulations of P. ramorum spread and infection risk over the next decade (2010-2020). An estimated 734 thousand oak trees occur on developed land in communities in the analysis area. The simulations predict an expanding sudden oak death (SOD) infestation that will likely encompass most of northwestern California and warrant treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 10 thousand oak trees with discounted cost of $7.5 million. In addition, we estimate the discounted property losses to single family homes of $135 million. Expanding the land base to include developed land outside as well as inside communities doubles the estimates of the number of oak trees killed and the associated costs and losses. The predicted costs and property value losses are substantial, but many of the damages in urban areas (e.g. potential losses from increased fire and safety risks of the dead trees and the loss of ecosystem service values) are not included.

The influence of satellite populations of emerald ash borer on projected economic costs in U.S. communities, 2010-2020.

The invasion spread of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is characterized by the formation of satellite populations that expand and coalesce with the continuously invading population front. As of January 2010, satellite infestations have been detected in 13 states and two Canadian provinces. Understanding how newly established satellite populations may affect economic costs can help program managers to justify and design prevention and control strategies. We estimate the economic costs caused by EAB for the 10-yr period from 2010 to 2020 for scenarios of fewer EAB satellite populations than those found from 2005 to 2010 and slower expansion of satellite populations found in 2009. We measure the projected discounted cost of treatment, removal, and replacement of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) growing in managed landscapes in U.S. communities. Estimated costs for the base scenario with the full complement of satellites in 2005-2010 and no program to mitigate spread is $12.5 billion. Fewer EAB satellites from 2005 to 2010 delay economic costs of $1.0 to 7.4 billion. Slower expansion of 2009 satellite populations delays economic costs of $0.1 to 0.7 billion. Satellite populations that are both distant from the core EAB infestation and close to large urban areas caused more economic costs in our simulations than did other satellites. Our estimates of delayed economic costs suggest that spending on activities that prevent establishment of new satellite EAB populations or slow expansion of existing populations can be cost-effective and that continued research on the cost and effectiveness of prevention and control activities is warranted.

The Influence of Groundwater Depletion from Irrigated Agriculture on the Tradeoffs between Ecosystem Services and Economic Returns.

An irrigated agricultural landscape experiencing groundwater overdraft generates economic returns and a suite of ecosystem services (in particular, groundwater supply, greenhouse gases reduction, and surface water quality). Alternative land cover choices indicate tradeoffs among the value of ecosystem services created and the economic returns. These tradeoffs are explored using efficiency frontiers that determine the least value in ecosystem services that must be given up to generate additional economic returns. Agricultural producers may switch to irrigation with surface water using on-farm reservoirs and tail water recovery systems in response to groundwater overdraft, and this has consequences for the bundle of ecosystem service values and economic returns achievable from the landscape. Planning that accounts for both ecosystem service value and economic returns can achieve more value for society, as does the adoption of reservoirs though lowering the costs of irrigation, increasing groundwater levels, and reducing fuel combustion and associated GHG emissions from groundwater pumping. Sensitivity analyses of per unit value of ecosystem services, crop prices, and the groundwater and water purification model parameters indicate tradeoff among ecosystems service values, such as the use of a high-end social cost of carbon ultimately lowers groundwater supply and water purification value by more than 15%.

Evaluating the return in ecosystem services from investment in public land acquisitions.

We evaluate the return on investment (ROI) from public land conservation in the state of Minnesota, USA. We use a spatially-explicit modeling tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), to estimate how changes in land use and land cover (LULC), including public land acquisitions for conservation, influence the joint provision and value of multiple ecosystem services. We calculate the ROI of a public conservation acquisition as the ratio of the present value of ecosystem services generated by the conservation to the cost of the conservation. For the land scenarios analyzed, carbon sequestration services generated the greatest benefits followed by water quality improvements and recreation opportunities. We found ROI values ranged from 0.21 to 5.28 depending on assumptions about future land use change, service values, and discount rate. Our study suggests conservation is a good investment as long as investments are targeted to areas with low land costs and high service values.

Economic impacts of non-native forest insects in the continental United States.

Reliable estimates of the impacts and costs of biological invasions are critical to developing credible management, trade and regulatory policies. Worldwide, forests and urban trees provide important ecosystem services as well as economic and social benefits, but are threatened by non-native insects. More than 450 non-native forest insects are established in the United States but estimates of broad-scale economic impacts associated with these species are largely unavailable. We developed a novel modeling approach that maximizes the use of available data, accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty, and provides cost estimates for three major feeding guilds of non-native forest insects. For each guild, we calculated the economic damages for five cost categories and we estimated the probability of future introductions of damaging pests. We found that costs are largely borne by homeowners and municipal governments. Wood- and phloem-boring insects are anticipated to cause the largest economic impacts by annually inducing nearly $1.7 billion in local government expenditures and approximately $830 million in lost residential property values. Given observations of new species, there is a 32% chance that another highly destructive borer species will invade the U.S. in the next 10 years. Our damage estimates provide a crucial but previously missing component of cost-benefit analyses to evaluate policies and management options intended to reduce species introductions. The modeling approach we developed is highly flexible and could be similarly employed to estimate damages in other countries or natural resource sectors.