Simulating the Simultaneous Impact of Medication for Opioid Use Disorder and Naloxone on Opioid Overdose Death in Eight New York Counties.

BACKGROUND: The United States is in the midst of an opioid overdose epidemic; 28.3 per 100,000 people died of opioid overdose in 2020. Simulation models can help understand and address this complex, dynamic, and nonlinear social phenomenon. Using the HEALing Communities Study, aimed at reducing opioid overdoses, and an agent-based model, Simulation of Community-Level Overdose Prevention Strategy, we simulated increases in buprenorphine initiation and retention and naloxone distribution aimed at reducing overdose deaths by 40% in New York Counties. METHODS: Our simulations covered 2020-2022. The eight counties contrasted urban or rural and high and low baseline rates of opioid use disorder treatment. The model calibrated agent characteristics for opioid use and use disorder, treatments and treatment access, and fatal and nonfatal overdose. Modeled interventions included increased buprenorphine initiation and retention, and naloxone distribution. We predicted a decrease in the rate of fatal opioid overdose 1 year after intervention, given various modeled intervention scenarios. RESULTS: Counties required unique combinations of modeled interventions to achieve a 40% reduction in overdose deaths. Assuming a 200% increase in naloxone from current levels, high baseline treatment counties achieved a 40% reduction in overdose deaths with a simultaneous 150% increase in buprenorphine initiation. In comparison, low baseline treatment counties required 250-300% increases in buprenorphine initiation coupled with 200-1000% increases in naloxone, depending on the county. CONCLUSIONS: Results demonstrate the need for tailored county-level interventions to increase service utilization and reduce overdose deaths, as the modeled impact of interventions depended on the county's experience with past and current interventions.

The impact of preexisting psychiatric disorders and antidepressant use on COVID-19 related outcomes: a multicenter study.

Pre-existing mental disorders are linked to COVID-19-related outcomes. However, the findings are inconsistent and a thorough analysis of a broader spectrum of outcomes such as COVID-19 infection severity, morbidity, and mortality is required. We investigated whether the presence of psychiatric diagnoses and/or the use of antidepressants influenced the severity of the outcome of COVID-19. This retrospective cohort study evaluated electronic health records from the INSIGHT Clinical Research Network in 116,498 individuals who were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and February 23, 2021. We examined hospitalization, intubation/mechanical ventilation, acute kidney failure, severe sepsis, and death as COVID-19-related outcomes. After using propensity score matching to control for demographics and medical comorbidities, we used contingency tables to assess whether patients with (1) a history of psychiatric disorders were at higher risk of more severe COVID-19-related outcomes and (2) if use of antidepressants decreased the risk of more severe COVID-19 infection. Pre-existing psychiatric disorders were associated with an increased risk for hospitalization, and subsequent outcomes such as acute kidney failure and severe sepsis, including an increased risk of death in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders or bipolar disorders. The use of antidepressants was associated with significantly reduced risk of sepsis (p = 0.033), death (p = 0.026). Psychiatric disorder diagnosis prior to a COVID-19-related healthcare encounter increased the risk of more severe COVID-19-related outcomes as well as subsequent health complications. However, there are indications that the use of antidepressants might decrease this risk. This may have significant implications for the treatment and prognosis of patients with COVID-19.

Application of an opioid use disorder cascade of care in a large public health system.

Background: Over the past decade, hospitals and health systems have increasingly adopted interventions to address the needs of patients with substance use disorders. The Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) Cascade of Care provides a framework for organizing and tracking patient health milestones over time and can assist health systems in identifying areas of intervention to maximize the impact of evidence-based services. However, detailed protocols are needed to guide health systems in how to operationalize the OUD Cascade and track outcomes using electronic health records.Objective: In this paper, we describe the process of operationalizing and applying the OUD Cascade in a large, urban, public hospital system.Methods: Through this case example, we describe the technical processes around data mining, as well as the decision-making processes, challenges encountered, lessons learned from compiling preliminary patient data and defining stages and outcome measures for the OUD Cascade of Care, and preliminary dataResults: We identified 33,616 (26.17% female) individuals with an OUD diagnosis. Almost half (48%) engaged with addiction services, while only 10.7% initiated medication-based treatment in an outpatient setting, 6.7% had timely follow-up, and 3.5% were retained for a minimum of 6 months.Conclusion: The current paper serves as a primer for other health systems seeking to implement data-informed approaches to guide more efficient care and improved substance use-related outcomes. An OUD Cascade of Care must be tailored to local systems based on inherent data limitations and services design with an emphasis on early stages wherein drop-off is the greatest.

Trends in Fentanyl Content on Reddit Substance Use Forums, 2013-2021.

BACKGROUND: Fentanyl is a pressing concern in the current drug supply. Social media data can provide access to near real-time understanding of drug trends that may complement official mortality data. DESIGN: The total number of fentanyl-related posts and the total number of posts for eight drug subreddit categories (alcohol, cannabis, hallucinogens, multi-drug, opioids, over the counter, sedatives, stimulants) were collected from 2013 to 2021 using the Pushshift Reddit dataset. The proportion of fentanyl-related posts as a fragment of total subreddit posts was examined. Linear regressions described the rate of change in post volume over time. RESULTS: Overall, fentanyl-related content increased across drug-related subreddits from 2013 to 2021 (1292% increase, linear trend p ≤ 0.001). Opioid subreddits (30.62 per 1000 posts, linear trend p ≤ 0.001) had the most fentanyl-related content during the examined time period. Multi-drug (5.95 per 1000; p ≤ 0.01), sedative (3.23 per 1000, p ≤ 0.01), and stimulant (1.60 per 1000, p ≤ 0.01) subreddits also had substantial increases in fentanyl-related content. The greatest increases occurred in the multi-drug (1067% 2013:2021) and stimulant (1862% 2014:2021) subreddits. CONCLUSION: Fentanyl-related posts on Reddit trended upward, with the fastest rate of change for multi-substance and stimulant subreddits. Beyond opioids, harm reduction and public health messaging should ensure inclusion of individuals who use other drugs.

The Future of the United States Overdose Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities.

Policy Points People are dying at record numbers from overdose in the United States. Concerted action has led to a number of successes, including reduced inappropriate opioid prescribing and increased availability of opioid use disorder treatment and harm-reduction efforts, yet ongoing challenges include criminalization of drug use and regulatory and stigma barriers to expansion of treatment and harm-reduction services. Priorities for action include investing in evidence-based and compassionate policies and programs that address sources of opioid demand, decriminalizing drug use and drug paraphernalia, enacting policies to make medication for opioid use disorder more accessible, and promoting drug checking and safe drug supply.

State-Level History of Overdose Deaths Involving Stimulants in the United States, 1999‒2020.

Objectives. To examine the state-level history of US overdose deaths involving stimulants with and without opioids from 1999 to 2020. Methods. We used death certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics to categorize deaths into 4 groups of interest: cocaine with and without opioids, and psychostimulants with and without opioids. We used a Bayesian multiple change point model to describe the timing and magnitude of changes in overdose death rates involving stimulants for each state and year. Results. There was little change in the death rates of cocaine without opioids. Death rates involving cocaine and opioids sharply increased around 2015, particularly in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. We also observed steady increases in deaths involving psychostimulants without opioids just before 2010, particularly in states in the West and South. Deaths involving psychostimulants with opioids increased around 2015 with largest increases concentrated in Appalachian states. Conclusions. There is significant geographic heterogeneity in the co-involvement of stimulants in the US overdose crisis. Results can inform public health efforts to inform state-level overdose efforts such as naloxone distribution. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(9):991-999. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307337).

Racial differences in COVID-19 severity associated with history of substance use disorders and overdose: Findings from multi-site electronic health records in New York City.

Substance use disorders (SUD) are associated with increased risk of worse COVID-19 outcomes. Likewise, racial/ethnic minority patients experience greater risk of severe COVID-19 disease compared to white patients. Providers should understand the role of race and ethnicity as an effect modifier on COVID-19 severity among individuals with SUD. This retrospective cohort study assessed patient race/ethnicity as an effect modifier of the risk of severe COVID-19 disease among patients with histories of SUD and overdose. We used merged electronic health record data from 116,471 adult patients with a COVID-19 encounter between March 2020 and February 2021 across five healthcare systems in New York City. Exposures were patient histories of SUD and overdose. Outcomes were risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and subsequent COVID-19-related ventilation, acute kidney failure, sepsis, and mortality. Risk factors included patient age, sex, and race/ethnicity, as well as medical comorbidities associated with COVID-19 severity. We tested for interaction between SUD and patient race/ethnicity on COVID-19 outcomes. Findings showed that Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian/Pacific Islander patients experienced a higher prevalence of all adverse COVID-19 outcomes compared to non-Hispanic white patients. Past-year alcohol (OR 1.24 [1.01-1.53]) and opioid use disorders (OR 1.91 [1.46-2.49]), as well as overdose history (OR 4.45 [3.62-5.46]), were predictive of COVID-19 mortality, as well as other adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Among patients with SUD, significant differences in outcome risk were detected between patients of different race/ethnicity groups. Findings indicate that providers should consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability to adequately manage COVID-19 disease among populations with SUDs.

Evaluating chronic pain as a risk factor for COVID-19 complications among New York State Medicaid beneficiaries: a retrospective claims analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether chronic pain increases the risk of COVID-19 complications and whether opioid use disorder (OUD) differentiates this risk among New York State Medicaid beneficiaries. DESIGN, SETTING, AND SUBJECTS: This was a retrospective cohort study of New York State Medicaid claims data. We evaluated Medicaid claims from March 2019 through December 2020 to determine whether chronic pain increased the risk of COVID-19 emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and complications and whether this relationship differed by OUD status. We included beneficiaries 18-64 years of age with 10 months of prior enrollment. Patients with chronic pain were propensity score-matched to those without chronic pain on demographics, utilization, and comorbidities to control for confounders and were stratified by OUD. Complementary log-log regressions estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of COVID-19 ED visits and hospitalizations; logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) of hospital complications and readmissions within 0-30, 31-60, and 61-90 days. RESULTS: Among 773 880 adults, chronic pain was associated with greater hazards of COVID-related ED visits (HR = 1.22 [95% CI: 1.16-1.29]) and hospitalizations (HR = 1.19 [95% CI: 1.12-1.27]). Patients with chronic pain and OUD had even greater hazards of hospitalization (HR = 1.25 [95% CI: 1.07-1.47]) and increased odds of hepatic- and cardiac-related events (OR = 1.74 [95% CI: 1.10-2.74]). CONCLUSIONS: Chronic pain increased the risk of COVID-19 ED visits and hospitalizations. Presence of OUD further increased the risk of COVID-19 hospitalizations and the odds of hepatic- and cardiac-related events. Results highlight intersecting risks among a vulnerable population and can inform tailored COVID-19 management.

A Taxonomy of Hospital-Based Addiction Care Models: a Scoping Review and Key Informant Interviews.

BACKGROUND: There is pressing need to improve hospital-based addiction care. Various models for integrating substance use disorder care into hospital settings exist, but there is no framework for describing, selecting, or comparing models. We sought to fill that gap by constructing a taxonomy of hospital-based addiction care models based on scoping literature review and key informant interviews. METHODS: Methods included a scoping review of the literature on US hospital-based addiction care models and interventions for adults, published between January 2000 and July 2021. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 15 key informants experienced in leading, implementing, evaluating, andpracticing hospital-based addiction care to explore model characteristics, including their perceived strengths, limitations, and implementation considerations. We synthesized findings from the literature review and interviews to construct a taxonomy of model types. RESULTS: Searches identified 2,849 unique abstracts. Of these, we reviewed 280 full text articles, of which 76 were included in the final review. We added 8 references from reference lists and informant interviews, and 4 gray literature sources. We identified six distinct hospital-based addiction care models. Those classified as addiction consult models include (1) interprofessional addiction consult services, (2) psychiatry consult liaison services, and (3) individual consultant models. Those classified as practice-based models, wherein general hospital staff integrate addiction care into usual practice, include (4) hospital-based opioid treatment and (5) hospital-based alcohol treatment. The final type was (6) community-based in-reach, wherein community providers deliver care. Models vary in their target patient population, staffing, and core clinical and systems change activities. Limitations include that some models have overlapping characteristics and variable ways of delivering core components. DISCUSSION: A taxonomy provides hospital clinicians and administrators, researchers, and policy-makers with a framework to describe, compare, and select models for implementing hospital-based addiction care and measure outcomes.

Opioid treatment program safety measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a statewide survey.

BACKGROUND: Opioid treatment programs (OTPs) serve as daily essential services for people with opioid use disorder. This study seeks to identify modifications to operations and adoption of safety measures at Pennsylvania OTPs during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A 25-min online survey to clinical and administrative directors at all 103 state-licensed OTPs in Pennsylvania was fielded from September to November 2020. Survey domains included: 1) changes to services, client volume, hours and staffing during the COVID-19 pandemic 2) types of services modifications 3) safety protocols to reduce COVID-19 transmission 4) challenges to operations during the pandemic. RESULTS: Forty-seven directors responded, for a response rate of 45%. Almost all respondents reported making some service modification (96%, n = 43). Almost half (47%, n = 21) of respondents reported reductions in the number of clients served. OTPs were more likely to adopt safety protocols that did not require significant funding, such as limiting the number of people entering the site (100%, n = 44), posting COVID-safety information (100%, n = 44), enforcing social distancing (98%, n = 43), and increasing sanitation (100%, n = 44). Only 34% (n = 14) of OTPS provided N95 masks to most or all staff. Respondents reported that staff's stress and negative mental health (86%, n = 38) and staff caregiving responsibilities (84%, n = 37) during the pandemic were challenges to maintaining OTP operations. CONCLUSION: OTPs faced numerous challenges to operations and adoption of safety measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding mechanisms and interventions to improve adoption of safety protocols, staff mental health as well as research on patient experiences and preferences can inform further OTP adaptation to the COVID-19 pandemic and future emergency planning.

Intersecting substance use treatment and harm reduction services: exploring the characteristics and service needs of a community-based sample of people who use drugs.

BACKGROUND: Substance use treatment and harm reduction services are essential components of comprehensive strategies for reducing the harms of drug use and overdose. However, these services have been historically siloed, and there is a need to better understand how programs that serve people who use drugs (PWUD) are integrating these services. In this study, we compared treatment and harm reduction services offered by a multistate sample of substance use service providers and assessed how well they align with characteristics and needs of clients they serve early in the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We recruited a convenience sample of programs that deliver harm reduction and/or treatment services in ten US states. Program directors participated in a survey assessing the services offered at their program. We also recruited clients of these programs to participate in a survey assessing a range of sociodemographic and health characteristics, substance use behaviors, and health service utilization. We then cross-compared client characteristics and behaviors relative to services being offered through these programs. RESULTS: We collected and analyzed data from 511 clients attending 18 programs that we classified as either offering treatment with medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) (N = 6), syringe service programs (SSP) (N = 8), or offering both MOUD and SSP (N = 4). All programs delivered a range of treatment and harm reduction services, with MOUD & SSP programs delivering the greatest breadth of services. There were discrepancies between services provided and characteristics and behaviors reported by clients: 80% of clients of programs that offered MOUD without SSP actively used drugs and 50% injected drugs; 40% of clients of programs that offered SSP without MOUD sought drug treatment services. Approximately half of clients were unemployed and unstably housed, but few programs offered direct social services. CONCLUSIONS: In many ways, existing programs are not meeting the service needs of PWUD. Investing in innovative models that empower clients and integrate a range of accessible and flexible treatment, harm reduction and social services can pave the way for a more effective and equitable service system that considers the long-term health of PWUD.

Outcomes of a NYC Public Hospital System Low-Threshold Tele-Buprenorphine Bridge Clinic at 1 Year.

Background: This study evaluated clinical outcomes of a low barrier tele-buprenorphine bridge program for NYC residents with opioid use disorder (OUD) at 1 year during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods and materials: This retrospective analysis of the NYC Health + Hospitals (NYC H + H) Virtual Buprenorphine Clinic registry assessed baseline demographic and clinical characteristics, rates of referrals to community treatment, and induction-related adverse events among city residents with OUD, from March 2020 to the end of March 2021. Results: The program enrolled 199 patients, of whom 62.3% were provided same-day visits (n = 124). Patients were enrolled in the program for a median of 14 days (range 0-130 days). Referrals sources included hospital and clinic staff (n = 83, 47.7%), word of mouth (n = 30, 17.2%), and correctional health or reentry services (n = 30, 17.2%). Induction-related adverse events were mostly limited to precipitated withdrawal symptoms (n = 21, 5%). Roughly half of patients were referred to community treatment (n = 109, 54.8%) and of those 51.4% (n = 56/109) completed at least one visit in community treatment. Discussion: Our experience indicates that a low threshold tele-buprenorphine bridge program in place of a safe and feasible approach to facilitating entry in community treatment for underserved people who use opioids in a large metropolitan area.

Fentanyl in Pressed Oxycodone Pills: A Qualitative Analysis of Online Community Experiences with an Emerging Drug Trend.

OBJECTIVES: There is a growing concern over the increased prevalence of fentanyl contaminated oxycodone pills, referred to as M30s. The current study is an examination of content on the Reddit social media site in order to understand the perceptions of and experiences with exposure to fentanyl contaminated M30 pills. METHODS: Data include subreddit posts collected from January 1, 2021, to July 28, 2021, from 71 drug-related subreddits using 34 fentanyl-related search terms. A random subsample of 500 posts was examined for thematic analysis. 226 (45.2%) of posts were determined to be relevant and included in the final sample. RESULTS: Over one-third (n = 85, 37.6%) of subreddit posts with mention of fentanyl were related to pressed M30 pills. Three emergent themes related to pressed M30 pills were identified: suspicion of contamination in oxycodone pills was pervasive (51.2%), composition of pills evoked anxiety (40%), and M30 mitigation and testing strategies (29.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Many persons on the online communities of Reddit who use drugs were aware of fentanyl contamination in the current pressed pill market. Reddit offered a space to network with others to discuss harm reduction strategies and anxieties surrounding the pervasiveness of fentanyl in the current drug market.

Association of substance use characteristics and future homelessness among emergency department patients with drug use or unhealthy alcohol use: Results from a linked data longitudinal cohort analysis.

Background: Homelessness and substance use are intricately related, and both are prevalent among emergency department (ED) patients. This study examined the longitudinal association of substance use characteristics with future homeless shelter entry among ED patients with any drug use or unhealthy alcohol use. Methods: We present results from a longitudinal cohort study of public hospital ED patients who screened positive for drug use or unhealthy alcohol use and who were not homeless at their baseline (index) ED visit. The primary outcome was homeless shelter entry within 12 months of baseline, ascertained in city homeless shelter administrative data. Primary independent variables of interest were alcohol use severity (AUDIT), drug use severity (DAST-10), and types of drugs used, as reported on baseline survey questionnaires. Results: Analyses included 1,210 ED patients. By 12 months following the baseline ED visit, 114 (9.4%) had entered a homeless shelter. Among patients with the most severe problems related to drug use (DAST-10 score 9-10), 40.9% entered a shelter within 12 months. Past shelter use was the strongest predictor of future shelter entry; once adjusting for historic shelter use the relationship of AUDIT and DAST-10 scores with future shelter entry was no longer statistically significant in multivariable models. Conclusions: ED patients with past year drug use or unhealthy alcohol use had relatively high likelihood of future shelter entry. Risk for homelessness should be addressed in future interventions with this population. Findings illustrate the complexity of relationships between substance use and homelessness.

Polysubstance use in a Brazilian national sample: Correlates of co-use of alcohol and prescription drugs.

Background: Responses to problem substance use have largely focused on illicit drugs, but reports on rising prescription drug misuse worldwide raise questions about their combined use with alcohol and potential consequences. The current study assessed prevalence of alcohol in conjunction with nonmedical opioid and benzodiazepine use across a nationally representative sample of adults in Brazil. Methods: Cross-sectional data on prevalence were estimated from the 2015 Brazilian Household Survey on Substance Use. We estimated past month nonmedical use of benzodiazepines and alcohol and past month nonmedical use of opioids and alcohol among adults who reported any past-year alcohol use. Zero-inflated Poisson models assessed independent correlates of alcohol and nonmedical opioid use, and alcohol and nonmedical benzodiazepine use. Results: Among adults who reported past year alcohol use, 0.4% (N = 257,051) reported past month alcohol and non-medical benzodiazepine use, and 0.5% (N = 337,333) reported past month alcohol and non-medical opioid use. Factors independently associated with co-use of alcohol and benzodiazepines included having depression (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR):4.61 (95%CI 1.76-12.08)), anxiety (aPR:4.21 (95%CI 1.59-11.16)) and tobacco use (aPR: 5.48 (95%CI 2.26-13.27)). Factors associated with past-month alcohol and opioid use included having experienced physical or a threat of violence (aPR: 4.59 (95%CI 1.89-11.14)), and tobacco use (aPR:2.81(95%CI:1.29-6.12)). Conclusions: Co-use of prescription drugs with alcohol remains relatively rare among Brazilians, but findings point to a unique profile of persons at risk. Results of this study are important in light of changing dynamics and international markets of prescription drugs and the need for more research on use of these substances on a global scale.

Opioid use disorder Cascade of care framework design: A roadmap.

Unintentional overdose deaths, most involving opioids, have eclipsed all other causes of US deaths for individuals less than 50 years of age. An estimated 2.4 to 5 million individuals have opioid use disorder (OUD) yet a minority receive treatment in a given year. Medications for OUD (MOUD) are the gold standard treatment for OUD however early dropout remains a major challenge for improving clinical outcomes. A Cascade of Care (CoC) framework, first popularized as a public health accountability strategy to stem the spread of HIV, has been adapted specifically for OUD. The CoC framework has been promoted by the NIH and several states and jurisdictions for organizing quality improvement efforts through clinical, policy, and administrative levers to improve OUD treatment initiation and retention. This roadmap details CoC design domains based on available data and potential linkages as individual state agencies and health systems typically rely on limited datasets subject to diverse legal and regulatory requirements constraining options for evaluations. Both graphical decision trees and catalogued studies are provided to help guide efforts by state agencies and health systems to improve data collection and monitoring efforts under the OUD CoC framework.

The stigma system: How sociopolitical domination, scapegoating, and stigma shape public health.

Stigma is a fundamental driver of adverse health outcomes. Although stigma is often studied at the individual level to focus on how stigma influences the mental and physical health of the stigmatized, considerable research has shown that stigma is multilevel and structural. This paper proposes a theoretical approach that synthesizes the literature on stigma with the literature on scapegoating and divide-and-rule as strategies that the wealthy and powerful use to maintain their power and wealth; the literatures on racial, gender, and other subordination; the literature on ideology and organization in sociopolitical systems; and the literature on resistance and rebellion against stigma, oppression and other forms of subordination. we develop a model of the "stigma system" as a dialectic of interacting and conflicting structures and processes. Understanding this system can help public health reorient stigma interventions to address the sources of stigma as well as the individual problems that stigma creates. On a broader level, this model can help those opposing stigma and its effects to develop alliances and strategies with which to oppose stigma and the processes that create it.

A Critical Review of the Social and Behavioral Contributions to the Overdose Epidemic.

More than 750,000 people in the United States died from an overdose between 1999 and 2018; two-thirds of those deaths involved an opioid. In this review, we present trends in opioid overdose rates during this period and discuss how the proliferation of opioid prescribing to treat chronic pain, changes in the heroin and illegally manufactured opioid synthetics markets, and social factors, including deindustrialization and concentrated poverty, contributed to the rise of the overdose epidemic. We also examine how current policies implemented to address the overdose epidemic may have contributed to reducing prescription opioid overdoses but increased overdoses involving illegal opioids. Finally, we identify new directions for research to understand the causes and solutions to this critical public health problem, including research on heterogeneous policy effects across social groups, effective approaches to reduce overdoses of illegal opioids, and the role of social contexts in shaping policy implementation and impact.

Association of substance use disorders and drug overdose with adverse COVID-19 outcomes in New York City: January-October 2020.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that individuals with history of substance use disorder (SUD) are at increased risk of COVID-19, but little is known about relationships between SUDs, overdose and COVID-19 severity and mortality. This study investigated risks of severe COVID-19 among patients with SUDs. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of data from a hospital system in New York City. Patient records from 1 January to 26 October 2020 were included. We assessed positive COVID-19 tests, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and death. Descriptive statistics and bivariable analyses compared the prevalence of COVID-19 by baseline characteristics. Logistic regression estimated unadjusted and sex-, age-, race- and comorbidity-adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for associations between SUD history, overdose history and outcomes. RESULTS: Of patients tested for COVID-19 (n = 188 653), 2.7% (n = 5107) had any history of SUD. Associations with hospitalization [AORs (95% confidence interval)] ranged from 1.78 (0.85-3.74) for cocaine use disorder (COUD) to 6.68 (4.33-10.33) for alcohol use disorder. Associations with ICU admission ranged from 0.57 (0.17-1.93) for COUD to 5.00 (3.02-8.30) for overdose. Associations with death ranged from 0.64 (0.14-2.84) for COUD to 3.03 (1.70-5.43) for overdose. DISCUSSION: Patients with histories of SUD and drug overdose may be at elevated risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes.

The Impact of Various Risk Assessment Time Frames on the Performance of Opioid Overdose Forecasting Models.

BACKGROUND: An individual's risk for future opioid overdoses is usually assessed using a 12-month "lookback" period. Given the potential urgency of acting rapidly, we compared the performance of alternative predictive models with risk information from the past 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. METHODS: We included 1,014,033 Maryland residents aged 18-80 with at least 1 opioid prescription and no recorded death in 2015. We used 2015 Maryland prescription drug monitoring data to identify risk factors for nonfatal opioid overdoses from hospital discharge records and investigated fatal opioid overdose from medical examiner data in 2016. Prescription drug monitoring program-derived predictors included demographics, payment sources for opioid prescriptions, count of unique opioid prescribers and pharmacies, and quantity and types of opioids and benzodiazepines filled. We estimated a series of logistic regression models that included 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of prescription drug monitoring program data and compared model performance, using bootstrapped C-statistics and associated 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: For hospital-treated nonfatal overdose, the C-statistic increased from 0.73 for a model including only the fourth quarter to 0.77 for a model with 4 quarters of data. For fatal overdose, the area under the curve increased from 0.80 to 0.83 over the same models. The strongest predictors of overdose were prescription fills for buprenorphine and Medicaid and Medicare as sources of payment. CONCLUSIONS: Models predicting opioid overdose using 1 quarter of data were nearly as accurate as models using all 4 quarters. Models with a single quarter may be more timely and easier to identify persons at risk of an opioid overdose.