European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024 with focus on colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2024 for the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970 until the most available year, we predicted deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2024 for all cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites. We fitted a linear regression to the most recent trend segment identified by the joinpoint model. The number of avoided deaths since the peak in 1988-2024 was estimated for all cancers and CRC. RESULTS: We predicted 1 270 800 cancer deaths for 2024 in the EU, corresponding to ASRs of 123.2/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.0/100 000 women (-4.3%). Since 1988, about 6.2 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 1.3 million in the UK. Pancreatic cancer displayed unfavorable predicted rates for both sexes (+1.6% in men and +4.0% in women) and lung cancer for women (+0.3%). The focus on CRC showed falls in mortality at all ages in the EU, by 4.8% for men and 9.5% for women since 2018. The largest declines in CRC mortality are predicted among those 70+ years old. In the UK, projected ASRs for CRC at all ages are favorable for men (-3.4% versus 2018) but not for women (+0.3%). Below age 50 years, CRC mortality showed unfavorable trends in Italy and the UK, in Poland and Spain for men, and in Germany for women. CONCLUSIONS: Predicted cancer mortality rates remain favorable in the EU and the UK, mainly in males due to earlier smoking cessation compared to females, underlining the persisting major role of tobacco on cancer mortality in Europe. Attention should be paid to the predicted increases in CRC mortality in young adults.

Post-diagnosis serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in women treated for breast cancer participating in a lifestyle trial in Italy.

OBJECTIVE: To report cross-sectionally serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] in women living in Italy within 12 months from breast cancer (BC) diagnosis. METHODS: Baseline data were obtained from 394 women diagnosed with primary BC, enrolled from 2016 to 2019 in a lifestyle trial conducted in Italy. Subjects' characteristics were compared between two 25(OH)D concentrations (hypovitaminosis D<20 and ≥20 ng/mL) with the Chi-squared test or Fisher's exact test for small-expected counts. Using multiple logistic regression-adjusted models, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) of hypovitaminosis D with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in the total sample and in the unsupplemented subgroup. RESULTS: Hypovitaminosis D was found in 39% of all subjects, 60% in unsupplemented subjects, and 10% in supplemented subjects. Increasing ORs of hypovitaminosis D were found with increasing body mass index, 25-30, >30, and ≥35 versus <25 kg/m2 (ORs: 2.50, 4.64, and 5.81, respectively, in the total cohort and ORs: 2.68, 5.38, and 7.08 in the unsupplemented); living in the most southern Italian region (OR 2.50, 95%CI 1.22-5.13); and with hypertriglyceridemia (OR 2.46; 95%CI 1.16-5.22), chemotherapy history (OR 1.86, 95%CI 1.03-3.38), and inversely with anti-estrogenic therapy (OR 0.43, 95%CI 0.24-0.75) in the total sample. CONCLUSIONS: Hypovitaminosis D in women recently diagnosed with BC and participating in a lifestyle trial in Italy was widespread and highest with obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, and chemotherapy use. Considering that hypovitaminosis D is a risk factor for lower efficacy of bone density treatments and possibly BC mortality, our results suggest the need to promptly address and treat vitamin D deficiency.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2023 with focus on lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2023 for the European Union (EU-27), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We also focused on mortality from lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2018, we predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2023 for all cancers combined and the 10 most common cancer sites. We investigated the changes in trends over the observed period. The number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2023 were estimated for all cancers as well as lung cancer. RESULTS: We predicted 1 261 990 cancer deaths for 2023 in the EU-27, corresponding to ASRs of 123.8/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.3 for women (-3.7%). Over 1989-2023, ∼5 862 600 cancer deaths were avoided in the EU-27 compared with peak rates in 1988. Most cancers displayed favorable predicted rates, with the exceptions of pancreatic cancer, which was stable in EU men (8.2/100 000) and rose by 3.4% in EU women (5.9/100 000), and female lung cancer, which, however, tends to level off (13.6/100 000). Steady declines are predicted for colorectal, breast, prostate, leukemia, stomach in both sexes, and male bladder cancers. The focus on lung cancer showed falls in mortality for all age groups in men. Female lung cancer mortality declined in the young (-35.8%, ASR: 0.8/100 000) and middle-aged (-7%, ASR: 31.2/100 000) but still increased by 10% in the elderly (age 65+ years). CONCLUSIONS: The advancements in tobacco control are reflected in favorable lung cancer trends, and should be pushed further. Greater efforts on the control of overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, infection and related neoplasms, together with improvements in screening, early diagnosis, and treatments may achieve a further 35% reduction in cancer mortality in the EU by 2035.

Occupational asbestos exposure and ovarian cancer: updated systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The association between asbestos exposure and ovarian cancer has been questioned given the possible misdiagnosis of peritoneal mesothelioma as ovarian cancer. AIMS: To update a systematic review on ovarian cancer risk in women occupationally exposed to asbestos, exploring the association with the time since first exposure and the duration of exposure. METHODS: We searched PubMed from 2008 onwards, screened previous systematic reviews, combined standardized mortality ratios (SMR) using random effect models and quantified heterogeneity using the I2 statistic. To assess tumour misclassification, we compared the distribution of observed excess ovarian cancers (OEOC) to that expected (EEOC) from the distribution of peritoneal cancers in strata of latency and exposure duration. RESULTS: Eighteen publications (20 populations), including a pooled analysis of 21 cohorts, were included. The pooled SMR was 1.79 (95% confidence interval 1.38-2.31), with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2 = 42%), based on 144 ovarian cancer deaths/cases. The risk was increased for women with indirect indicators of higher exposure, longer duration and latency, and lower for chrysotile than for crocidolite exposure. The effect of duration and latency could not be completely disentangled, since no multivariate analysis was available for time-related variables. The dissimilarity index between OEOC and EEOC for the time since first exposure was small suggesting a similar pattern of risk. CONCLUSIONS: While some misclassification between ovarian and peritoneal cancers cannot be excluded, the observed excess risk of ovarian cancer should be added to the overall disease burden of asbestos.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2022 with focus on ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality rates, though not absolute numbers of deaths, have been decreasing over the last three decades in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated projections and the number of avoided deaths for total cancer mortality and 10 major cancer sites, between 1989 and 2022, for the European Union (EU), the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain using cancer death certification and population data since 1970 from the World Health Organization and Eurostat. RESULTS: In the EU, we predict 1 269 200 cancer deaths in 2022; corresponding age-standardized rates (world) fall 6% to 126.9 deaths/100 000 in men and 4% to 80.2/100 000 women since 2017. Male lung cancer is expected to fall 10% reaching 30.9/100 000. The rise in female lung cancer mortality slowed (+2% to 13.8/100 000). We estimated 369 000 (23%) avoided deaths in 2022 alone and a total of 5 394 000 (12%) deaths since the peak rate in 1988. Stomach, colorectal, breast and prostate cancers showed substantial declines, between 5% and 16% over the past 5 years. Pancreatic cancer remained stable in men (8.1/100 000) and rose 3% in women (5.9/100 000), becoming the third cause of cancer mortality in the EU (87 300 deaths), overtaking breast cancer (86 300 deaths). The fall in uterine cancers slowed down (-4%) to 4.7/100 000. Bladder cancer fell 9% in men, but was stable in women. Leukaemias fell more than 10%. Ovarian cancer mortality declined over the past decade in all considered countries. EU predicted rates were 4.3/100 000 (-13%) all ages, 1.2/100 000 (-26%) at 20-49, 15.3/100 000 (-11%) at 50-69 and 32.3/100 000 (-11%) at 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted additional declines in cancer mortality rates for 2022. The slowdown in female lung cancer mortality reflects some levelling of smoking in women. Favourable ovarian cancer trends are likely to continue and are largely attributable to the spreading oral contraceptive use and some impact of improved diagnosis and management.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021. RESULTS: We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988. CONCLUSION: Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

Aspirin and the risk of colorectal and other digestive tract cancers: an updated meta-analysis through 2019.

BACKGROUND: Aspirin has been associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer, and possibly of a few other digestive tract cancers. The quantification of risk reduction and the optimal dose and duration of aspirin use for the prevention of colorectal and other digestive tract cancers remains unclear. METHODS: To provide an up-to-date quantification of this association, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of all observational studies on aspirin and cancers of the digestive tract sites published through March 2019. We estimated the pooled relative risk (RR) of cancer for regular aspirin use versus non-use using random-effects models, and, whenever data were available, we investigated the dose- and duration-risk relations. RESULTS: Regular aspirin use is associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer [RR = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.69-0.78, 45 studies], squamous-cell esophageal cancer (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.57-0.79, 13 studies), adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and gastric cardia (RR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.49-0.77, 10 studies), stomach cancer (RR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.51-0.82, 14 studies), hepato-biliary tract cancer (RR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.44-0.86, five studies), and pancreatic cancer (RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.68-0.89, 15 studies), but not of head and neck cancer (RR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.76-1.16, 10 studies). The associations are somewhat stronger in case-control than in cohort and nested case-control studies and are characterized by some between-study heterogeneity. Risk estimates are consistent across sex, geographical areas, and other selected covariates. For colorectal cancer, an aspirin dose between 75 and 100 mg/day conveys a risk reduction of 10%, and a dose of 325 mg/day of 35%. For all neoplasms, except head and neck cancer, inverse duration-risk relations with aspirin use are found. CONCLUSION: The present comprehensive meta-analysis supports and further quantifies the inverse association between regular aspirin use and the risk of colorectal and other digestive tract cancers, including some rare ones. The favorable effect of aspirin increases with longer duration of use, and, for colorectal cancer, with increasing dose.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2020 with a focus on prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Current cancer mortality figures are important for disease management and resource allocation. We estimated mortality counts and rates for 2020 in the European Union (EU) and for its six most populous countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We estimated projections to 2020 for 10 major cancer sites plus all neoplasms and calculated the number of avoided deaths over 1989-2020. RESULTS: Total cancer mortality rates in the EU are predicted to decline reaching 130.1/100 000 men (-5.4% since 2015) and 82.2 in women (-4.1%) in 2020. The predicted number of deaths will increase by 4.7% reaching 1 428 800 in 2020. In women, the upward lung cancer trend is predicted to continue with a rate in 2020 of 15.1/100 000 (higher than that for breast cancer, 13.5) while in men we predicted further falls. Pancreatic cancer rates are also increasing in women (+1.2%) but decreasing in men (-1.9%). In the EU, the prostate cancer predicted rate is 10.0/100 000, declining by 7.1% since 2015; decreases for this neoplasm are ∼8% at age 45-64, 14% at 65-74 and 75-84, and 6% at 85 and over. Poland is the only country with an increasing prostate cancer trend (+18%). Mortality rates for other cancers are predicted to decline further. Over 1989-2020, we estimated over 5 million avoided total cancer deaths and over 400 000 for prostate cancer. CONCLUSION: Cancer mortality predictions for 2020 in the EU are favourable with a greater decline in men. The number of deaths continue to rise due to population ageing. Due to the persistent amount of predicted lung (and other tobacco-related) cancer deaths, tobacco control remains a public health priority, especially for women. Favourable trends for prostate cancer are largely attributable to continuing therapeutic improvements along with early diagnosis.

Evaluating human basal metabolism: the erroneous and misleading use of so-called "prediction equations".

Prediction (regression) equations are widely used, but their reliability as predictive tools is questionable as they provide contradicting results. The key point is that values calculated by regression equations are not precisely defined numbers but lie within a range of possible values in the standard deviation interval, none of which can be considered as the most probable. Ignoring this point leads to illicit/improper calculations, generating wrong results, which may have adverse consequences for human health. To demonstrate this, we applied the equations of Harris and Benedict in a reverse method, i.e. calculating (predicting) the daily energy expenditure in the same subjects used to obtain the equations and comparing values with the original measured data. We used the Bland-Altman and frequency distribution analyses. We found large differences in both individual data and population characteristics, showing that prediction equations are not predictive tools.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2019 with focus on breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2019. RESULTS: We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (-5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (-3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50-69 (-16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20-49 (-13.8%), while more modest at age 70-79 (-6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989-2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths. CONCLUSION: Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2018 in selected Australasian countries and Russia.

Background: Predicted cancer mortality figures and rates are useful for public health planning. Materials and methods: We retrieved cancer death certification data for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers from the World Health Organization (WHO) database and population data from WHO and United Nations Population Division databases. We obtained figures for Russia, Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, and Australia in 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths by age group and age-standardized rates (world population) for 2018 by applying a linear regression to mortality data of each age group over the most recent trend segment identified by a joinpoint regression model. Results: Russia had the highest predicted total cancer mortality rates, 158.5/100 000 men and 84.1/100 000 women. Men in the Philippines showed the lowest rates for 2018 (84.6/100 000) and Korean males the most favourable predicted fall (21% between 2012 and 2018). Women in Korea had the lowest total cancer predicted rate (52.5/100 000). Between 1993 and 2018, i.e. by applying the 1993 rates to populations in subsequent years, a substantial number of cancer deaths was avoided in Russia (1 000 000 deaths, 821 000 in men and 179 000 in women), Israel (40 000 deaths, 21 000 in men and 19 000 in women), Hong Kong (63 000 deaths, 40 000 in men and 23 000 in women), Japan (651 000 deaths, 473 000 in men and 178 000 in women), Korea (327 000 deaths, 250 000 in men and 77 000 in women), and Australia (181 000 deaths, 125 000 in men and 56 000 in women). No appreciable reduction in cancer deaths was found in the Philippines. Conclusion: Overall, we predicted falls in cancer mortality. However, these are less marked and later compared with the European Union and United States. Substantial numbers of deaths were avoided in all countries considered except the Philippines. Lung cancer mortality remains exceedingly high in Russian men, despite recent falls.

Cancer mortality in the elderly in 11 countries worldwide, 1970-2015.

BACKGROUND: Population ageing results in an increasing cancer burden in the elderly. We aimed to evaluate time-trends in cancer mortality for adults aged 65 and over for 17 major cancer types and all cancers combined in 11 countries worldwide over the period 1970-2015. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certification and population figures from the WHO and PAHO databases. We computed age-standardised (world standard population) rates for individuals aged 65 and over, and applied joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: Age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers combined showed a heterogeneous, but widespread decline. Lung cancer mortality rates have been decreasing among men, and increasing among women. Pancreatic cancer had unfavourable trends in all countries for both sexes. Despite variability across countries, other tobacco-related cancers (except kidney) showed overall favourable trends, except in Poland and Russia. Age-standardised mortality rates from stomach cancer have been declining in all countries for both sexes. Colorectal mortality has been declining, except in Poland and Russia. Liver cancer mortality increased in all countries, except in Japan, France and Italy, which had the highest rates in the past. Breast cancer mortality decreased for most countries, except for Japan, Poland and Russia. Trends for age-standardised uterine cancer rates in the USA, Canada and the UK were increasing over the last decade. Ovarian cancer rates showed declines in most countries. With the exception of Russia, prostate cancer rates showed overall declines. Lymphoid neoplasms rates have been declining in both sexes, except in Poland and Russia. CONCLUSION: Over the last decades, age-standardised cancer mortality in the elderly has been decreasing in major countries worldwide and for major cancer sites, with the major exception of lung and uterine cancer in women and liver, pancreatic and kidney cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality for the elderly in central and eastern Europe remains comparatively high.

Cancer mortality in Europe in 2015 and an overview of trends since 1990.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality in Europe has been decreasing since the late 1980s or 1990s in some countries with different patterns in many areas. In this study, we updated trends in cancer mortality in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from the World Health Organization mortality database for 24 cancer sites, 36 European countries and the European Union (EU) as a whole over the 1990-2017 period. We computed age-standardized death rates per 100 000 person-years, and we carried out a joinpoint regression analysis of mortality trends from all cancers and selected major neoplasms. The estimated annual percent change (APC) for each identified linear segment, and the weighted average APC (AAPC) over the entire study period were provided as summary measures of the changes in rates over the time period. RESULTS: In 2015, the age-standardized mortality rates from all cancers in the EU were 137.5 deaths per 100 000 in men and 85.7 in women. Eastern European countries showed the highest rates with values over 150 deaths per 100 000 in men and over 100 deaths per 100 000 in women. Mortality from all cancers in the EU declined annually by 1.5% in men since 2006 and by 0.8% in women since 2007. Most cancer sites showed decreasing trends, with steady declines over the whole period for cancers of stomach, intestines, lung in men, breast and prostate. Unfavourable mortality trends persisted for cancers of liver, lung in women, pancreas, besides skin and kidney in men. CONCLUSIONS: The downward trends in total cancer mortality in Europe still continue over the last decade. However, the trends were less favourable in most eastern European countries. Tobacco control in men (but not in women), improvements in diagnosis and therapy were the main underlying factors of these trends.

Shared and Study-specific Dietary Patterns and Head and Neck Cancer Risk in an International Consortium.

BACKGROUND: A few papers have considered reproducibility of a posteriori dietary patterns across populations, as well as pattern associations with head and neck cancer risk when multiple populations are available. METHODS: We used individual-level pooled data from seven case-control studies (3844 cases; 6824 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We simultaneously derived shared and study-specific a posteriori patterns with a novel approach called multi-study factor analysis applied to 23 nutrients. We derived odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx combined, and larynx, from logistic regression models. RESULTS: We identified three shared patterns that were reproducible across studies (75% variance explained): the Antioxidant vitamins and fiber (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.41, 0.78, highest versus lowest score quintile) and the Fats (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.67, 0.95) patterns were inversely associated with oral and pharyngeal cancer risk. The Animal products and cereals (OR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1, 2.1) and the Fats (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4, 2.3) patterns were positively associated with laryngeal cancer risk, whereas a linear inverse trend in laryngeal cancer risk was evident for the Antioxidant vitamins and fiber pattern. We also identified four additional study-specific patterns, one for each of the four US studies examined. We named them all as Dairy products and breakfast cereals, and two were associated with oral and pharyngeal cancer risk. CONCLUSION: Multi-study factor analysis provides insight into pattern reproducibility and supports previous evidence on cross-country reproducibility of dietary patterns and on their association with head and neck cancer risk. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B430.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2018 with focus on colorectal cancer.

Background: We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer. Materials and methods: We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970-2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models. Results: EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (-6.7%) and 9.2 in women (-7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s. Conclusion: We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.

Validation of the diagnosis of mesothelioma and BAP1 protein expression in a cohort of asbestos textile workers from Northern Italy.

Background: Diagnosis of mesothelioma based on death certificate is subject to misclassification, which may bias the results of epidemiology studies. A high proportion of mesothelioma harbor mutations in the BRCA1-associated protein 1 (BAP1) gene. Methods: We searched medical and pathology records and specimens for 127 workers from a textile-asbestos factory in Italy who died during 1963-2013 with a diagnosis of pleural or peritoneal neoplasm or mesothelioma on death certificate, to confirm the diagnosis with immunohistochemistry markers. We calculated the odds ratio of confirmation by selected characteristics and asbestos exposure variables. When sufficient pathology material was available, we analyzed BAP1 protein expression. Results: The diagnosis of mesothelioma was histologically confirmed for 35 cases (27.6%); 5 cases were classified as non-mesothelioma (3.9%), for 33 cases a mention of mesothelioma was found on record but no sufficient material was available for revision (26.0%); no records were available for 54 cases (death-certificate-only 42.5%). Diagnostic confirmation was not associated with sex, location of the neoplasm, age, or duration of employment; however, there was a significant association with time since first employment (P for linear trend 0.04). An association between duration of employment and time since first employment was observed for confirmed cases but not for death-certificate-only cases. BAP1 protein was lost in 18/35 cases (51.4%), without an association with sex, location, age, indices of asbestos exposure, or survival. Conclusions: We were able to confirm by immunohistochemistry a small proportion of mesothelioma diagnoses on certificates of deceased asbestos workers, and confirmation correlated with latency of asbestos exposure but not other characteristics. BAP1 protein loss is a frequent event in mesothelioma of asbestos-exposed workers, but does not correlate with exposure.

The main causes of death contributing to absolute and relative socio-economic inequality in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: Monitoring socio-economic inequality has become a priority for many governments, especially after the socio-economic changes that followed the 2008 financial crisis. This study aimed at detecting the causes of death with the largest socio-economic inequality in relative and absolute terms in Italy. STUDY DESIGN: This is a historical cohort study. METHODS: We used two regression-based measures of socio-economic inequality, the relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII), to rank the causes of death with the highest relative and absolute socio-economic inequality. We obtained these measures on a large census-based cohort study with more than 35 million individuals and 452,273 deaths registered in the period 2012-2014. RESULTS: The causes with the highest relative socio-economic inequality were the following: laryngeal cancer (RII: 6.1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.8-7.78), AIDS/HIV (RII: 4.8, 95% CI: 3.1-7.4), chronic liver disease (RII: 4.8, 95% CI: 3.2-7.3), and chronic lower respiratory diseases (RII: 4.8, 95% CI: 3.5-6.5) in men, and diabetes (RII: 6.2, 95% CI: 4.8-7.9), AIDS/HIV (RII: 4.5, 95% CI: 2.7-7.7), genitourinary system (RII: 3.8, 95% CI: 2.6-5.4) and chronic liver diseases (RII: 3.6, 95% CI: 2.9-4.5) in women. In absolute terms, lung cancer and ischemic heart diseases contributed more to the overall socio-economic inequality in men, whereas diabetes and ischemic heart diseases accounted for most of the socio-economic inequality in women. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings call for effective policies to reduce the disparities in mortality from ischemic heart diseases, lung cancer, and diabetes taking into account the sex-specific pattern of inequality.

Alcohol consumption and risk of urothelial cell bladder cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition cohort.

Findings on the association between alcohol consumption and bladder cancer are inconsistent. We investigated that association in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. We included 476,160 individuals mostly aged 35-70 years, enrolled in ten countries and followed for 13.9 years on average. Hazard ratios (HR) for developing urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC; 1,802 incident cases) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Alcohol consumption at baseline and over the life course was analyzed, as well as different types of beverages (beer, wine, spirits). Baseline alcohol intake was associated with a statistically nonsignificant increased risk of UCC (HR 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.06 for each additional 12 g/day). HR in smokers was 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07). Men reporting high baseline intakes of alcohol (>96 g/day) had an increased risk of UCC (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.03-2.40) compared to those reporting moderate intakes (<6 g/day), but no dose-response relationship emerged. In men, an increased risk of aggressive forms of UCC was observed even at lower doses (>6 to 24 g/day). Average lifelong alcohol intake was not associated with the risk of UCC, however intakes of spirits > 24 g/day were associated with an increased risk of UCC in men (1.38; 95% CI 1.01-1.91) and smokers (1.39; 95% CI 1.01-1.92), compared to moderate intakes. We found no association between alcohol and UCC in women and never smokers. In conclusion, we observed some associations between alcohol and UCC in men and in smokers, possibly because of residual confounding by tobacco smoking.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained death certification data from the World Health Organization and population data from the Pan American Health Organization database for all neoplasms and selected cancer sites. We derived figures for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model, we estimated number of deaths and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates in 2017. RESULTS: Total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in all countries. The highest mortality rates for 2017 are in Cuba, i.e. 132.3/100 000 men and 93.3/100 000 women. Mexico had the lowest predicted rates, 64.7/100 000 men and 60.6/100 000 women. In contrast, the total number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to population ageing and growth. Men showed declines in lung cancer trends in all countries and age groups considered, while only Colombian and Mexican women had downward trends. Stomach and (cervix) uteri rates are predicted to continue their declines, though mortality from these neoplasms remains comparatively high. Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer rates were predicted to decline moderately, as well as leukaemias. There was no clear pattern for pancreatic cancer. Between 1990 and 2017 about 420 000 cancer deaths were avoided in 5 of the 7 countries, no progress was observed in Brazil and Cuba. CONCLUSION: Cancer mortality rates for 2017 in seven selected Latin American countries are predicted to decline, though there was appreciable variability across countries. Mortality from major cancers-including lung and prostate-and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970-2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (-8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (-3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25-44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups. CONCLUSION: European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.