Effects of global change on snakebite envenoming incidence up to 2050: a modelling assessment.

BACKGROUND: Human activities are driving climate, land cover, and population change (global change), and shifting the baseline geographical distribution of snakebite. The interacting effects of global change on snakes and communities at risk of snakebite are poorly understood, limiting capacity to anticipate and manage future changes in snakebite risk. METHODS: In this modelling study, we projected how global change will affect snakebite envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka, as a model system that has a high incidence of snakebite. We used the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario analysis framework to integrate forecasts across the domains of: climate change (historical trend from WorldClim plus three underlying regional circulation models [RCMs] in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-South Asia repository, with two emissions pathways [representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5]); land cover change (Dyna-CLUE model); and human population density change (based on Gridded Population of the World data) from Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2050. Forecasts were integrated under three different development scenarios: a sustainability pathway (SSP1 and no further emissions), a middle-of-the-road pathway (SSP2 and RCP4.5), and a fossil-fuelled pathway (SSP5 and RCP8.5). For SSP2 and SSP5, we nested three different RCMs (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CCM3, and MPI-ESM-LR; mean averaged to represent consensus) to account for variability in climate predictions. Data were used as inputs to a mechanistic model that predicted snakebite envenoming incidence based on human-snake contact patterns. FINDINGS: From 2010 to 2050, at the national level, envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka was projected to decrease by 12·0-23·0%, depending on the scenario. The rate of decrease in envenoming incidence was higher in SSP5-RCP8.5 than in SSP1 and SSP2-RCP4.5. Change in envenoming incidence was heterogenous across the country. In SSP1, incidence decreased in urban areas expected to have population growth, and with land cover changes towards anthropised classes. In SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5, most areas were projected to have decreases in incidence (SSP5-RCP8.5 showing the largest area with incidence reductions), while areas such as the central highlands and the north of the country showed localised increases. In the model, decreases occurred with human population growth, land use change towards anthropised classes (potentially shifting occupational risk factors), and decreasing abundance of some snake species, potentially due to global warming and reduced climatic and habitat suitability, with displacement of some snake species. INTERPRETATION: Snakebite envenoming incidence was projected to decrease overall in the coming decades in Sri Lanka, but with an apparent emerging conflict with sustainability objectives. Therefore, efforts to mitigate snakebite envenoming incidence will need to consider the potential impacts of sustainability interventions, particularly related to climate and land use change and in areas where increases in incidence are projected. In view of global change, neglected tropical diseases and public health issues related to biodiversity, such as snakebite, should be managed collaboratively by both environment and health stakeholders. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

Snakebite prevalence and risk factors in a nomadic population in Samburu County, Kenya: A community-based survey.

INTRODUCTION: Snakebite is an important public health concern, especially in tropical areas, but the true burden remains unclear due to sub-optimal reporting and over-reliance on health facility-based data. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in Samburu County, Kenya from December 2019 to March 2020. Geospatial techniques were used to create a sampling frame of all households in Samburu County and a multistage cluster sampling strategy to select households and recruit study participants. Five year prevalence and mortality rates were estimated, the characteristics and circumstances of snakebite were described, and multilevel logistic regression models were built to identify independent risk factors for snakebite. RESULTS: We recruited 3,610 individuals living in 875 households from 30 clusters. The 5-year prevalence of snakebite was 2.2% (95% CI 1.4%-3.4%), and the 5-year mortality rate was 138 (95% CI 44-322) deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, resulting in an estimated 1,406 snakebites and 88 deaths from snakebites per year in Samburu County. Snakebite incidents often occurred at night between 9pm and 6 am (44%, n = 36), and the participants were mostly walking/playing outdoors (51%, n = 41) or sleeping (32%, n = 27) when they were bitten. Lower household socioeconomic status and smaller numbers of people per house were significant independent risk factors. CONCLUSION: Samburu County has a high snakebite burden and the most victims are bitten while sleeping or walking outdoors at night. Snakebite prevention and health promotion programs in Samburu County, and other endemic regions, need to be contextualised and consider the geographic, seasonal, and temporal specificities found in our study. Our findings also have implications for health care delivery, especially identification of the need for night-time staffing with expertise in snakebite management and antivenom availability to better manage patients and thereby improve outcomes.

African polyvalent antivenom can maintain pharmacological stability and ability to neutralise murine venom lethality for decades post-expiry: evidence for increasing antivenom shelf life to aid in alleviating chronic shortages.

INTRODUCTION: Antivenom is a lifesaving medicine for treating snakebite envenoming, yet there has been a crisis in antivenom supply for many decades. Despite this, substantial quantities of antivenom stocks expire before use. This study has investigated whether expired antivenoms retain preclinical quality and efficacy, with the rationale that they could be used in emergency situations when in-date antivenom is unavailable. METHODS: Using WHO guidelines and industry test requirements, we examined the in vitro stability and murine in vivo efficacy of eight batches of the sub-Saharan African antivenom, South African Institute for Medical Research polyvalent, that had expired at various times over a period of 30 years. RESULTS: We demonstrate modest declines in immunochemical stability, with antivenoms older than 25 years having high levels of turbidity. In vitro preclinical analysis demonstrated all expired antivenoms retained immunological recognition of venom antigens and the ability to inhibit key toxin families. All expired antivenoms retained comparable in vivo preclinical efficacy in preventing the lethal effects of envenoming in mice versus three regionally and medically important venoms. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides strong rationale for stakeholders, including manufacturers, regulators and health authorities, to explore the use of expired antivenom more broadly, to aid in alleviating critical shortages in antivenom supply in the short term and the extension of antivenom shelf life in the longer term.

Improving care pathways for children with severe illness through implementation of the ASPIRE mHealth primary ETAT package in Malawi.

Providing emergency care in low resource settings relies on delivery by lower cadres of health workers (LCHW). We describe the development, implementation and mixed methods evaluation of a mobile health (mHealth) triage algorithm based on the WHO Emergency, Triage, Assessment, and Treatment (ETAT) for primary-level care. We conducted an observational study design of implementation research. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout implementation. Clinicians and LCHW at eight primary health centres in Blantyre district were trained to use an mHealth algorithm for triage. An mHealth patient surveillance system monitored patients from presentation through referral to tertiary and final outcome. A total of 209,174 children were recorded by ETAT between April 2017 and September 2018, and 155,931 had both recorded mHealth and clinician triage outcome data. Concordance between mHealth triage by lower cadres of HCW and clinician assessment was 81·6% (95% CI [81·4, 81·8]) over all outcomes (kappa: 0·535 (95% CI [0·530, 0·539]). Concordance for mHealth emergency triage was 0.31 with kappa 0.42. The most common mHealth recorded emergency sign was breathing difficulty (74·1% 95% CI [70·1, 77·9]) and priority sign was raised temperature (76·2% (95% CI [75·9, 76·6]). A total of 1,644 referrals out of 3,004 (54·7%) successfully reached the tertiary site. Both providers and carers expressed high levels of satisfaction with the mHealth ETAT pathway. An mHealth triage algorithm can be used by LCHWs with moderate concordance with clinician triage. Implementation of ETAT through an mHealth algorithm documented successful referrals from primary to tertiary, but half of referred patients did not reach the tertiary site. Potential harms of such systems, such as cases requiring referral being missed during triage, require further evaluation. The ASPIRE mHealth primary ETAT approach can be used to prioritise acute illness and support future resource planning within both district and national health system.

Conducting epidemiological studies on snakebite in nomadic populations: A methodological paper.

INTRODUCTION: Research on snakebite has mostly been conducted on settled populations and current risk factors and potential interventions are therefore most suited for these populations. There is limited epidemiological data on mobile and nomadic populations, who may have a higher risk of snakebite. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a scoping review to gather evidence on survey methods used in nomadic populations and compared them with contemporary survey methods used for snakebite research. Only 16 (10.5%) of 154 articles reportedly conducted on pastoralist nomadic populations actually involved mobile pastoralists. All articles describing snakebite surveys (n = 18) used multistage cluster designs on population census sampling frames, which would not be appropriate for nomadic populations. We used geospatial techniques and open-source high-resolution satellite images to create a digital sampling frame of 50,707 households and used a multistage sampling strategy to survey nomadic and semi-nomadic populations in Samburu County, Kenya. From a sample of 900 geo-located households, we correctly identified and collected data from 573 (65.4%) households, of which 409 were in their original locations and 164 had moved within 5km of their original locations. We randomly sampled 302 (34.6%) households to replace completely abandoned and untraceable households. CONCLUSION: Highly mobile populations require specific considerations in selecting or creating sampling frames and sampling units for epidemiological research. Snakebite risk has a strong spatial component and using census-based sampling frames would be inappropriate in nomadic populations. We propose using open-source satellite imaging and geographic information systems to improve the conduct of epidemiological research in these populations.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis bloodstream infection prevalence, diagnosis, and mortality risk in seriously ill adults with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND: The clinical and epidemiological significance of HIV-associated Mycobacterium tuberculosis bloodstream infection (BSI) is incompletely understood. We hypothesised that M tuberculosis BSI prevalence has been underestimated, that it independently predicts death, and that sputum Xpert MTB/RIF has suboptimal diagnostic yield for M tuberculosis BSI. METHODS: We did a systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of studies performing routine mycobacterial blood culture in a prospectively defined patient population of people with HIV aged 13 years or older. Studies were identified through searching PubMed and Scopus up to Nov 10, 2018, without language or date restrictions and through manual review of reference lists. Risk of bias in the included studies was assessed with an adapted QUADAS-2 framework. IPD were requested for all identified studies and subject to harmonised inclusion criteria: age 13 years or older, HIV positivity, available CD4 cell count, a valid mycobacterial blood culture result (excluding patients with missing data from lost or contaminated blood cultures), and meeting WHO definitions for suspected tuberculosis (presence of screening symptom). Predicted probabilities of M tuberculosis BSI from mixed-effects modelling were used to estimate prevalence. Estimates of diagnostic yield of sputum testing with Xpert (or culture if Xpert was unavailable) and of urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) testing for M tuberculosis BSI were obtained by two-level random-effect meta-analysis. Estimates of mortality associated with M tuberculosis BSI were obtained by mixed-effect Cox proportional-hazard modelling and of effect of treatment delay on mortality by propensity-score analysis. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number 42016050022. FINDINGS:We identified 23 datasets for inclusion (20 published and three unpublished at time of search) and obtained IPD from 20, representing 96·2% of eligible IPD. Risk of bias for the included studies was assessed to be generally low except for on the patient selection domain, which was moderate in most studies. 5751 patients met harmonised IPD-level inclusion criteria. Technical factors such as number of blood cultures done, timing of blood cultures relative to blood sampling, and patient factors such as inpatient setting and CD4 cell count, explained significant heterogeneity between primary studies. The predicted probability of M tuberculosis BSI in hospital inpatients with HIV-associated tuberculosis, WHO danger signs, and a CD4 count of 76 cells per µL (the median for the cohort) was 45% (95% CI 38­52). The diagnostic yield of sputum in patients with M tuberculosis BSI was 77% (95% CI 63­87), increasing to 89% (80­94) when combined with urine LAM testing. Presence of M tuberculosis BSI compared with its absence in patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis increased risk of death before 30 days (adjusted hazard ratio 2·48, 95% CI 2·05­3·08) but not after 30 days (1·25, 0·84­2·49). In a propensity-score matched cohort of participants with HIV-associated tuberculosis (n=630), mortality increased in patients with M tuberculosis BSI who had a delay in anti-tuberculosis treatment of longer than 4 days compared with those who had no delay (odds ratio 3·15, 95% CI 1·16­8·84). INTERPRETATION:In critically ill adults with HIV-tuberculosis, M tuberculosis BSI is a frequent manifestation of tuberculosis and predicts mortality within 30 days. Improved diagnostic yield in patients with M tuberculosis BSI could be achieved through combined use of sputum Xpert and urine LAM. Anti-tuberculosis treatment delay might increase the risk of mortality in these patients

Efficacy and safety of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for treatment of Plasmodium falciparum uncomplicated malaria in adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Malawi and Mozambique: an open label non-randomized interventional trial

Background: HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) require treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) when infected with malaria. Dihydroartemisinin­piperaquine (DPQ) is recommended for treatment of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but its efcacy and safety has not been evaluated in HIV-infected individuals on ART, among whom drug­drug interactions are expected. Day-42 adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) and incidence of adverse events were assessed in HIV-infected individuals on non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based ART (efavirenz and nevirapine) with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria treated with dihydroartemisinin­piperaquine. Methods: An open label single arm clinical trial was conducted in Malawi (Blantyre and Chikhwawa districts) and Mozambique (Manhiça district) involving patients aged 15­65 years with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria who were on efavirenz-based or nevirapine-based ART. They received a directly-observed 3-day standard treatment of DPQ and were followed up until day 63 for malaria infection and adverse events. Day-42 PCR-corrected-ACPRs (95% confdence interval [CI]) were calculated for the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Results: The study enrolled 160 and 61 patients on efavirenz and nevirapine-based ART, with a baseline geometric mean (95% CI) parasite density of 2681 (1964­3661) and 9819 (6606­14,593) parasites/µL, respectively. The day-42 PCR-corrected ACPR (95% CI) was 99.4% (95.6­99.9%) in the efavirenz group and 100% in the nevirapine group. Seri ous adverse events occurred in 5.0% (8/160) and 3.3% (2/61) of the participants in the efavirenz and nevirapine group, respectively, but none were defnitively attributable to DPQ. Cases of prolonged QT interval (>60 ms from baseline) occurred in 31.2% (48/154) and 13.3% (8/60) of the patients on the efavirenz and nevirapine ART group