Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services.

Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.

Determinants of the geographic distribution of Puumala virus and Lyme borreliosis infections in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover and land use influence disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, and the probability of contact with susceptible human populations. The objective of this study was to combine environmental and socio-economic factors to explain the spatial distribution of two emerging human diseases in Belgium, Puumala virus (PUUV) and Lyme borreliosis. Municipalities were taken as units of analysis. RESULTS: Negative binomial regressions including a correction for spatial endogeneity show that the spatial distribution of PUUV and Lyme borreliosis infections are associated with a combination of factors linked to the vector and host populations, to human behaviours, and to landscape attributes. Both diseases are associated with the presence of forests, which are the preferred habitat for vector or host populations. The PUUV infection risk is higher in remote forest areas, where the level of urbanisation is low, and among low-income populations. The Lyme borreliosis transmission risk is higher in mixed landscapes with forests and spatially dispersed houses, mostly in wealthy peri-urban areas. The spatial dependence resulting from a combination of endogenous and exogenous processes could be accounted for in the model on PUUV but not for Lyme borreliosis. CONCLUSION: A large part of the spatial variation in disease risk can be explained by environmental and socio-economic factors. The two diseases not only are most prevalent in different regions but also affect different groups of people. Combining these two criteria may increase the efficiency of information campaigns through appropriate targeting.

Impact of droughts on water provision in managed alpine grasslands in two climatically different regions of the Alps.

This study analyzes the impact of droughts, compared with average climatic conditions, on the supporting ecosystem service water provision in sub-watersheds in managed alpine grasslands in two climatically different regions of the Alps, Lautaret (French Alps) and Stubai (Austrian Alps). Soil moisture was modelled in the range of 0-0.3 m. At both sites, current patterns showed that the mean seasonal soil moisture was (1) near field capacity for grasslands with low management intensity and (2) below field capacity for grasslands with higher land-use intensity. Soil moisture was significantly reduced by drought at both sites, with lower reductions at the drier Lautaret site. At the sub-watershed scale, soil moisture spatial heterogeneity was reduced by drought. Under drought conditions, the evapotranspiration to precipitation ratios at Stubai was slightly higher than those at Lautaret, indicating a dominant 'water spending' strategy of plant communities. Regarding catchment water balance, deep seepage was reduced by drought at Stubai more strongly than at Lautaret. Hence, the observed 'water spending' strategy at Stubai might have negative consequences for downstream water users. Assessing the water provision service for alpine grasslands provided evidence that, under drought conditions, evapotranspiration was influenced not only by abiotic factors but also by the water-use strategy of established vegetation. These results highlight the importance of 'water-use' strategies in existing plant communities as predictors of the impacts of drought on water provision services and related ecosystem services at both the field and catchment scale.

How ecosystem services knowledge and values influence farmers' decision-making.

The ecosystem services (ES) concept has emerged and spread widely recently, to enhance the importance of preserving ecosystems through global change in order to maintain their benefits for human well-being. Numerous studies consider various dimensions of the interactions between ecosystems and land use via ES, but integrated research addressing the complete feedback loop between biodiversity, ES and land use has remained mostly theoretical. Few studies consider feedbacks from ecosystems to land use systems through ES, exploring how ES are taken into account in land management decisions. To fill this gap, we carried out a role-playing game to explore how ES cognition mediates feedbacks from environmental change on farmers' behaviors in a mountain grassland system. On a close to real landscape game board, farmers were faced with changes in ES under climatic and socio-economic scenarios and prompted to plan for the future and to take land management decisions as they deemed necessary. The outcomes of role-playing game were complemented with additional agronomic and ecological data from interviews and fieldwork. The effects of changes in ES on decision were mainly direct, i.e. not affecting knowledge and values, when they constituted situations with which farmers were accustomed. For example, a reduction of forage quantity following droughts led farmers to shift from mowing to grazing. Sometimes, ES cognitions were affected by ES changes or by external factors, leading to an indirect feedback. This happened when fertilization was stopped after farmers learned that it was inefficient in a drought context. Farmers' behaviors did not always reflect their attitudes towards ES because other factors including topographic constraints, social value of farming or farmer individual and household characteristics also influenced land-management decisions. Those results demonstrated the interest to take into account the complete feedback loop between ES and land management decisions to favor more sustainable ES management.

The diversity of the ecosystem services concept and its implications for their assessment and management.

The ecosystem services concept is used in different scientific disciplines and is spreading into policy and business circles to draw attention to the benefits that people receive from biodiversity and ecosystems. However, the concept remains multiform and is used interchangeably with a range of other terms such as ecological, landscape or environmental services. We argue that lexical differences, in fact, result from different understandings of the concept, which could slow its use in nature conservation or sustainable resource use. An application to semi-natural grasslands shows that such differences could lead to very different assessments, of quality, quantity and location of ecosystem services. We argue that a compromise must be found between a broad and simple definition, which is useful for communicating the concept and large-scale policies, and a more refined definition for research and implementation goals such as environmental management and national and international assessments and accounting.