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Predicting and understanding the biological response to future climate change is a pressing challenge for humanity. In the 21st century, many species will move into higher latitudes and higher elevations as the climate warms. In addition, the relative abundances of species within local assemblages are likely to change. Both effects have implications for how ecosystems function. Few biodiversity forecasts, however, take account of both shifting ranges and changing abundances. We provide a novel analysis predicting the potential changes to assemblage-level relative abundances in the 21st century. We use an established relationship linking ant abundance and their colour and size traits to temperature and UV-B to predict future abundance changes. We also predict future temperature driven range shifts and use these to alter the available species pool for our trait-mediated abundance predictions. We do this across three continents under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Under RCP2.6, predicted changes to ant assemblages by 2100 are moderate. On average, species richness will increase by 26%, while species composition and relative abundance structure will be 26% and 30% different, respectively, compared with modern assemblages. Under RCP8.5, however, highland assemblages face almost a tripling of species richness and compositional and relative abundance changes of 66% and 77%. Critically, we predict that future assemblages could be reorganized in terms of which species are common and which are rare: future highland assemblages will not simply comprise upslope shifts of modern lowland assemblages. These forecasts reveal the potential for radical change to montane ant assemblages by the end of the 21st century if temperature increases continue. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait-environment relationships into future biodiversity predictions. Looking forward, the major challenge is to understand how ecosystem processes will respond to compositional and relative abundance changes.
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Hormigas/fisiología , Cambio Climático , Animales , Biodiversidad , Ecosistema , Predicción , Dinámica Poblacional , TemperaturaRESUMEN
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 offered a good opportunity to explore the early impacts of tropical volcanic eruptions on stratospheric composition. Balloon-borne observations near Réunion Island revealed the unprecedented amount of water vapor injected by the volcano. The enhanced stratospheric humidity, radiative cooling, and expanded aerosol surface area in the volcanic plume created the ideal conditions for swift ozone depletion of 5% in the tropical stratosphere in just 1 week. The decrease in hydrogen chloride by 0.4 parts per million by volume (ppbv) and the increase in chlorine monoxide by 0.4 ppbv provided compelling evidence for chlorine activation within the volcanic plume. This study enhances our understanding of the effect of this unusual volcanic eruption on stratospheric chemistry and provides insights into possible chemistry changes that may occur in a changing climate.
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As part of the UV-Indien project, a station for measuring ultraviolet radiation and the cloud fraction was installed in December 2019 in Moroni, the capital of the Comoros, situated on the west coast of the island of Ngazidja. A ground measurement campaign was also carried out on 12 January 2020 during the ascent of Mount Karthala, located in the center of the island of Ngazidja. In addition, satellite estimates (Ozone Monitoring Instrument and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) and model outputs (Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service and Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model) were combined for this same region. On the one hand, these different measurements and estimates make it possible to quantify, evaluate, and monitor the health risk linked to exposure to ultraviolet radiation in this region, and, on the other, they help to understand how cloud cover influences the variability of UV-radiation on the ground. The measurements of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument onboard the EOS-AURA satellite, being the longest timeseries of ultraviolet measurements available in this region, make it possible to quantify the meteorological conditions in Moroni and to show that more than 80% of the ultraviolet indices are classified as high and that 60% of these are classified as extreme. The cloud cover measured in Moroni by an All Sky Camera was used to distinguish between the cases of UV index measurements taken under clear or cloudy sky conditions. The ground-based measurements thus made it possible to describe the variability of the diurnal cycle of the UV index and the influence of cloud cover on this parameter. They also permitted the satellite measurements and the results of the simulations to be validated. In clear sky conditions, a relative difference of between 6 and 11% was obtained between satellite or model estimates and ground measurements. The ultraviolet index measurement campaign on Mount Karthala showed maximum one-minute standard erythemal doses at 0.3 SED and very high daily cumulative erythemal doses at more than 80 SED. These very high levels are also observed throughout the year and all skin phototypes can exceed the daily erythemal dose threshold at more than 20 SED.
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Ozono , Energía Solar , Comoras , Eritema , Humanos , Ozono/análisis , Rayos UltravioletaRESUMEN
Reunion Island is a popular tourist destination with sandy beaches, an active volcano (Piton de la Fournaise), and Piton des Neiges, the highest and most dominant geological feature on the island. Reunion is known to have high levels of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) with an ultraviolet index (UVI) which can reach 8 in winter and 16 in summer (climatological conditions). UVR has been linked to skin cancer, melanoma, and eye disease such as cataracts. The World Health Organization (WHO) devised the UVI as a tool for expressing UVR intensity. Thresholds ranging from low (UVI 1-2) to extreme (UVI > 11) were defined depending on the risk to human health. The purpose of the study was to assess UVR exposure levels over three of the busiest tourist sites on the island. UVR was measured over several hours along popular hiking trails around Piton de la Fournaise (PDF), Piton des Neiges (PDN), and St-Leu Beach (LEU). The results were compared with those recorded by the local UV station at Saint-Denis. In addition, cumulative standard erythemal dose (SED) was calculated. Results showed that UVI exposure at PDF, PDN, and LEU were extreme (>11) and reached maximum UVI levels of 21.1, 22.5, and 14.5, respectively. Cumulative SEDs were multiple times higher than the thresholds established by the Fitzpatrick skin phototype classification. UVI measurements at the three study sites showed that Reunion Island is exposed to extreme UVR conditions. Public awareness campaigns are needed to inform the population of the health risks related to UVR exposure.
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Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Recreación , Energía Solar , Rayos Ultravioleta , Humanos , Reunión , Estaciones del Año , Luz SolarRESUMEN
Measurement of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is important for the assessment of potential beneficial and adverse impacts on the biosphere, plants, animals, and humans. Excess solar UVR exposure in humans is associated with skin carcinogenesis and immunosuppression. Several factors influence solar UVR at the Earth's surface, such as latitude and cloud cover. Given the potential risks from solar UVR there is a need to measure solar UVR at different locations using effective instrumentation. Various instruments are available to measure solar UVR, but some are expensive and others are not portable, both restrictive variables for exposure assessments. Here, we compared solar UVR sensors commercialized at low or moderate cost to assess their performance and quality of measurements against a high-grade Bentham spectrometer. The inter-comparison campaign took place between March 2018 and February 2019 at Saint-Denis, La Réunion. Instruments evaluated included a Kipp&Zonen UVS-E-T radiometer, a Solar Light UV-Biometer, a SGLux UV-Cosine radiometer, and a Davis radiometer. Cloud fraction was considered using a SkyCamVision all-sky camera and the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Visible radiative transfer model was used to model clear-sky conditions. Overall, there was good reliability between the instruments over time, except for the Davis radiometer, which showed dependence on solar zenith angle. The Solar Light UV-Biometer and the Kipp&Zonen radiometer gave satisfactory results, while the low-cost SGLux radiometer performed better in clear sky conditions. Future studies should investigate temporal drift and stability over time.
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Radiometría/instrumentación , Luz Solar , Rayos Ultravioleta , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , ReuniónRESUMEN
We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between -5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2-4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960-2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.
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South Africa has been measuring the ground-based solar UV index for more than two decades at six sites to raise awareness about the impacts of the solar UV index on human health. This paper is an exploratory study based on comparison with satellite UV index measurements from the OMI/AURA experiment. Relative UV index differences between ground-based and satellite-derived data ranged from 0 to 45% depending on the site and year. Most of time, these differences appear in winter. Some ground-based stations' data had closer agreement with satellite-derived data. While the ground-based instruments are not intended for long-term trend analysis, they provide UV index information for public awareness instead, with some weak signs suggesting such long-term trends may exist in the ground-based data. The annual cycle, altitude, and latitude effects clearly appear in the UV index data measured in South Africa. This variability must be taken into account for the development of an excess solar UV exposure prevention strategy.