Global Prevalence of Helicobacter pylori Infection and Incidence of Gastric Cancer Between 1980 and 2022.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed to assess the secular trend of the global prevalence of Helicobacter pylori (H pylori) infection in adults and children/adolescents and to show its relation to that of gastric cancer incidence. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to calculate overall prevalence, adjusted by multivariate meta-regression analysis. The incidence rates of gastric cancer were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study and Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. RESULTS: Of the 16,976 articles screened, 1748 articles from 111 countries were eligible for analysis. The crude global prevalence of H pylori has reduced from 52.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 49.6%-55.6%) before 1990 to 43.9% (95% CI, 42.3%-45.5%) in adults during 2015 through 2022, but was as still as high as 35.1% (95% CI, 30.5%-40.1%) in children and adolescents during 2015 through 2022. Secular trend and multivariate regression analyses showed that the global prevalence of H pylori has declined by 15.9% (95% CI, -20.5% to -11.3%) over the last 3 decades in adults, but not in children and adolescents. Significant reduction of H pylori prevalence was observed in adults in the Western Pacific, Southeast Asian, and African regions. However, H pylori prevalence was not significantly reduced in children and adolescents in any World Health Organization regions. The incidence of gastric cancer has decreased globally and in various countries where the prevalence of H pylori infection has declined. CONCLUSIONS: The global prevalence of H pylori infection has declined during the last 3 decades in adults, but not in children and adolescents. The results raised the hypothesis that the public health drive to reduce the prevalence of H pylori as a strategy to reduce the incidence of gastric cancer in the population should be confirmed in large-scale clinical trials.

A nationwide case-referent study on elevated risks of adenocarcinoma lung cancer by long-term PM2.5 exposure in Taiwan since 1997.

BACKGROUND: The effects of long-term PM2.5 exposures since 1968 on adenocarcinoma lung cancer (AdLC) were not studied before. METHODS: This case-referent study used nationwide cancer registry data since 1997 and air pollution data since 1968 in Taiwan to estimate risks of 30-year PM2.5 exposures on AdLC. Cases were all AdLC, while references were all non-AdLC. Individuals' 30-year PM2.5 exposures were estimated by PM2.5 levels at their residence for 30 years prior their diagnosis dates. We applied multiple logistic regression analyses to estimate PM2.5 exposures on incidence rate ratios (IRRs) between cases and references, adjusting for sex, age, smoking, cancer stage, and EGFR mutation. RESULTS: Elevation in annual ambient PM2.5 concentrations since 1968 were associated with increase in annual age-adjusted AdLC incidence since 1997. AdLC incidences were higher among females, nonsmokers, the elderly aged above 65, cases of stages IIIB to IV, and EGFR mutation. Study subjects' PM2.5 exposures averaged at 33.7 ± 7.4 µg/m3 with 162 ± 130 high PM2.5 pollution days over 30 years. Multiple logistic models showed an increase in 10 µg/m3 of PM2.5 exposures were significantly associated with 1.044 of IRR between all AdLC and all non-AdLC cases during 2011-2020. Our models also showed that females and nonsmokers and adults less than 65 years had higher IRRs than their respective counterparts. Restricted analyses showed similar effects of PM2.5 exposures on IRRs between stage 0-IIIA and IIIB-IV cases and between EGFR+ and EGFR- cases. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposures to PM2.5 over 30 years were associated with elevated risks of AdLC against non-AdLC, regardless of gender, age, smoking status, cancer stage, or EGFR mutation.

Diabetic severity and oncological outcomes of colorectal cancer following curative resection: A population-based cohort study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Although diabetes is a poor prognostic factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), whether diabetes severity provides an additional predictive value for CRC prognosis remains unclear. The study aimed to investigate the prognostic differences after curative CRC resection among patients with different diabetic severities. METHODS: This population-based retrospective cohort study analyzed data registered between 2007 and 2015 in the Cancer Registry Database, which is linked to the National Health Insurance Research Database and National Death Registry. Patients with CRC who underwent curative radical resection for stage I-III disease were evaluated, with their diabetic status subdivided into no diabetes, diabetes without complication, and diabetes with complications. Cox regressions were applied to determine the association between diabetes severity and CRC survival, including overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), time to recurrence, and cancer-specific survival (CSS). RESULTS: A total of 59,202 patients with CRC were included. Compared with the no diabetes group, the diabetes without complication group has insignificantly worse OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.09), DFS (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.12), and CSS (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.93-1.03), whereas those with complicated diabetes had a significantly higher risk of poor survival (OS: HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.78-1.92; DFS: HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.69-1.82; CSS: HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.33-1.49). Patients with CRC and diabetes also had a higher risk of recurrence than did those without diabetes. Sex and TNM staging were important effect modifiers. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CRC who undergo curative resection, the severity of the diabetes is inversely correlated with long-term outcomes, especially in women and patients in the earlier stages of CRC. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The prognostic impact of diabetes severity in colorectal cancer (CRC) is yet to be clarified. In this cohort study of 59,202 patients with CRC, compared with patients with CRC and without diabetes, those with uncomplicated diabetes had an insignificantly worse CRC survival, whereas those with complicated diabetes had a significantly higher risk of poor survival. Multidisciplinary medical care to prevent progression into diabetes with complications is needed to improve survival among patients with CRC and diabetes.

Investigating the risk of metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities among patients with parathyroid cancer: a nationwide representative cohort study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine whether primary parathyroid cancer patients were associated with increased metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities in comparison to the general population. METHODS: We used the National Taiwan Cancer Registry Database to construct a cohort of patients with parathyroid cancer from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2019. We compared the incidence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, and heart failure with the general population matched based on a propensity score in a one-to-five fashion. RESULTS: A total of 72 parathyroid cancer patients and 360 matched general population (mean age: 55 years; 59% women) were included, with different exclusive numbers for each metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidity cohort. The number of cases based on a total of 2347.7 person-years of observation included 53 deaths, 29 hypertension, 9 diabetes, 13 hyperlipidemia, 10 atrial fibrillation, 18 coronary artery disease, and 13 heart failure. According to multivariate analysis, parathyroid cancer remained significantly associated with diabetes [hazard ratio (HR): 9.28; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.72-50.07], hyperlipidemia (HR: 5.86; 95% CI: 1.61-21.31), and heart failure (HR: 4.46; 95% CI: 1.18-16.84). Sub-distribution of competing mortality events and subgroup analysis showed robust evidence of metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities. This national cohort study demonstrated that adult parathyroid cancer patients had a significantly higher incidence of diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, and heart failure than the general population. CONCLUSIONS: An increased risk of metabolic and cardiac comorbidities among parathyroid cancer patients required great caution.

Short-term multidisciplinary family-centered workshop for preschool children with global developmental delays.

BACKGROUND: Children with developmental delays have a great impact on their families. Educating families on how to interact with their children is an important task. Therefore, we assessed the short-term effectiveness of the workshop for children with global developmental delays. METHODS: In total, 101 children aged 18-36 months with global developmental delays, all with language delay along with other developmental delays, and their parents participated in six 2-h family-centered workshop sessions for six weeks. Measures were taken before and after the workshop, including the Mandarin-Chinese Communicative Developmental Inventory, Peabody Developmental Motor Scales, Emotional Competency Rating Scales, Pediatric Outcomes Data Collection Instrument, Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory, Pediatric Daily Occupation Scale, Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL), Caregiver Strain Index, and PedsQL-Family Impact Module. RESULTS: Significant improvements with a small or intermediate effect size in emotions, upper extremity and physical functioning and global functioning, daily occupation performance in sensorimotor, communication, cognitive autonomy, and psychosocial domains, and parental quality of life and family impact were noted with high workshop satisfaction. CONCLUSION: Short-term family-centered workshop is effective for children with global developmental delays. However, due to the lack of follow-up after the intervention, it should be careful in inferring the developmental gain effect. IMPACT: The effectiveness of short-term family-centered workshops on children with global developmental delays remains uncertain. Short-term family-centered workshops improved the children's emotions, physical functional performance, and occupational performance in daily life. The short-term family-centered workshop is practical and effective for children with global developmental delays. Further long-term, large-scale, prospective, randomized trials are warranted to confirm these results. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT05418933.

Urban-Rural Disparity in Birth Cohort Effects on Breast Cancer Incidence.

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women worldwide. Studies have reported minimal birth cohort effects on the incidence rates of breast cancer in Western countries but have reported notable birth cohort effects in some Asian countries. The risks of breast cancer may also vary within a country. In the present study, we abstracted female invasive breast cancer data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry for the period 1997-2016. We used the age-period-cohort model to compare birth cohort effects on breast cancer incidence rates between urban and rural regions in Taiwan. We identified a notable urban-rural disparity in birth cohort effects on breast cancer incidence rates in women in Taiwan. The incidence rates in the urban regions were higher than those in the rural regions across all cohorts. However, the incidence rates rose faster in the rural regions than in the urban regions across the cohorts. The risks of breast cancer observed for women born in 1992 were approximately 22 and 11 times than those observed for women born in 1917 in rural and urban regions, respectively. The observed gap in breast cancer incidence rates between the urban and rural regions gradually disappeared across the cohorts. Accordingly, we speculate that urbanization and westernization in Taiwan may be the drivers of female breast cancer incidence rates across birth cohorts.

Disease Attribution to Multiple Exposures Using Aggregate Data.

BACKGROUND: Identifying which exposures cause disease and quantifying their impacts is essential in promoting and monitoring public health. When multiple exposures are involved, measuring individual contributions becomes challenging. METHODS: The authors propose a disease attribution method based on aggregate data or summary statistics of individual-level data, possibly from multiple data sources. RESULTS: Using the proposed method, the burden of disease is apportioned to the independent and interaction effects of each of its major risk factors and all the other factors as a whole. This scheme guarantees that 100% is the total share of the burden. CONCLUSION: The calculation is simple and straightforward; therefore, it is recommended for use in studies on disease burden.

A Stabilized Kriging Method for Mapping Disease Rates.

BACKGROUND: Mapping disease rates is an important aspect of epidemiological research because it helps inform public health policy. Disease maps are often drawn according to local administrative areas (LAAs), such as counties, cities, or towns. In LAAs with small populations, disease rates are unstable and are prone to appear extremely high or low. The empirical Bayes methods consider variance differences among different LAAs, thereby stabilizing the disease rates. The methods of kriging break the constraints of geopolitical boundaries and produce a smooth curved surface in the form of contour lines, but the methods lack the stabilizing effect of the empirical Bayes methods. METHODS: An easy-to-implement stabilized kriging method is proposed to map disease rates, which allows different errors in different LAAs. RESULTS: Monte Carlo simulations revealed that the stabilized kriging method had smaller symmetric mean absolute percentage error than three other types of methods (the original LAA-based method, empirical Bayes methods, and traditional kriging methods) in nearly all scenarios considered. Real-world data analysis of oral cancer incidence rates in men from Taiwan demonstrated that the age-standardized rates in the central mountainous sparsely-populated region of Taiwan were stabilized using our proposed method, with no more large differences in numerical values, whereas the rates in other populous regions were not over-smoothed. Additionally, the stabilized kriging map had improved resolution and helped locate several hot and cold spots in the incidence rates of oral cancer. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of the stabilized kriging method for mapping disease rates.

Birth Cohort Effects in Breast Cancer Incidence: Global Patterns and Trends.

Breast cancer is the most common neoplasm in the world among women. The age-specific incidences and onset ages vary widely between Asian and Western countries/regions. Invasive breast cancer cases among women from 1997 to 2011 were abstracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the trends. The cohort effect was prominent in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Thailand, possibly related to the timing of westernization. The risk of breast cancer initially rose with the birth cohorts in Hong Kong and India (both former British colonies), peaked, and then declined in recent birth cohorts. Unlike other Asian countries/regions, virtually no birth cohort effect was identified in the Philippines (a Spanish colony in 1565 and the first Asian country to adopt Western cultural aspects). Moreover, an at-most negligible birth cohort effect was identified for all ethnic groups (including Asian immigrants) in the United States. This global study identified birth cohort effects in most Asian countries/regions but virtually no impact in Western countries/regions. The timing of westernization was associated with the birth cohort effect.

Soft tissue sarcoma incidences and clinical characteristics are significantly different in France and Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of different soft tissue sarcoma (STS) histotypes among ethnic and geographic populations has not been comprehensively investigated. METHODS: Data from 2013 to 2016 were obtained from national cancer registry databases in France and Taiwan. Liposarcoma (LPS), leiomyosarcoma (LMS), angiosarcoma (AS), synovial sarcoma (SS), and malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST) were selected as index STSs to estimate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and other clinical features between patients. RESULTS: In total, 9398 patients (7148 from France and 2250 from Taiwan) were included. The ASRs of AS (5.4 vs. 2.8) and MPNST (2.0 vs. 1.0) were significantly higher in Taiwan; France had significantly higher ASRs for LPS (12.0 vs. 10.0), LMS (9.7 vs. 7.6), and SS (1.7 vs. 1.2). Patients in Taiwan with LMS or LPS were younger than their French counterparts. With regard to the distribution according to primary anatomic site, French patients had higher odds for extremity and truncal LMS (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; p < .001), AS (OR, 2.67; p < .001), MPNST (OR, 1.55; p = .027), and LPS (OR, 1.38; p < .001) and for breast AS (OR, 10.58; p < .001). Taiwanese patients had higher odds for liver AS (OR, 10.72; p < .001) and uterine LMS (OR, 3.21; p < .001). SS age and distribution according to primary anatomic site did not differ significantly between the French and Taiwanese populations. CONCLUSIONS: Significant differences in the incidence and clinical characteristics of index STS suggested that geographic (environmental) and ethnicity factors likely play a vital role in the pathogenesis of STS.

Predicting Colon Cancer-Specific Survival for the Asian Population Using National Cancer Registry Data from Taiwan.

PURPOSE: Colon cancer is the third most incident and life-threatening cancer in Taiwan. A comprehensive survival prediction system would greatly benefit clinical practice in this area. This study was designed to develop an accurate prognostic model for colon cancer patients by using clinicopathological variables obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry database. METHODS: We analyzed 20,218 colon cancer patients from the Taiwan Cancer Registry database, who were diagnosed between 2007 and 2015, were followed up until December 31, 2017, and had undergone curative surgery. We proposed two prognostic models, with different combinations of predictors. The first model used only traditional clinical features. The second model included several colon cancer site-specific factors (circumferential resection margin, perineural invasion, obstruction, and perforation), in addition to the traditional features. Both prediction models were developed by using a Cox proportional hazards model. Furthermore, we investigated whether race is a significant predictor of survival in colon cancer patients by using Model 1 on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry dataset. RESULTS: The proposed models displayed a robust prediction performance (all Harrell's c-index >0.8). For both the calibration and validation steps, the differences between the predicted and observed mortality were mostly less than 5%. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model (Model 1) is an effective predictor of survival regardless of the ethnic background of patients and can potentially help to provide better prediction of colon cancer-specific survival outcomes, thus allowing physicians to improve treatment plans.

Distinct Survival Outcomes in Subgroups of Stage III Pancreatic Cancer Patients: Taiwan Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results registry.

PURPOSE: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most malignant cancers with poor survival. The latest edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system classifies the majority of operable pancreatic cancer patients as stage-III, while dramatic heterogeneity is observed among these patients. Therefore, subgrouping is required to accurately predict their prognosis and define a treatment plan. This study conducts a cohort study to provide a more precise classification system for stage-III pancreatic cancer patients by utilizing clinical variables. METHODS: We analyzed survival using log-rank tests, univariate Cox-regression models, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves for stage-III pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients from the Taiwan Cancer Registry (TCR). Patients were further divided into subgroups using classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm. All results were validated using the SEER database. RESULTS: Among stage-III PDAC patients, lymph node and tumor grade showed significant association with survival. Patients with N2 stage had higher mortality risks (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.71-3.08, p < 0.0001) than N0 patients. Patients with grade 3 also had higher risk of mortality (HR = 3.80, 95% CI 2.25-6.39, p < 0.0001) than grade 1 patients. The CART algorithm stratified stage-III patients into four subgroups with significantly different survival rates. The median survival of the four subgroups was 23.5, 18.4, 14.5, and 9.0 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Similar results were observed with SEER data. CONCLUSIONS: Lymph node involvement and tumor grade are predictive factors for survival in stage-III PDAC patients. This new precise classification system can be used to guide treatment planning in advanced-stage pancreatic cancer.

Risk of cardiovascular diseases in cancer patients: A nationwide representative cohort study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: The associations with cancer and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) had inconsistent results. The study aimed to investigate the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) between populations with and without cancer. METHODS: Patients with common cancers in Taiwan were enrolled in the study between 2007 and 2018 using the Taiwan Cancer Registry. We focused on colorectal cancer, women's breast cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer, oral cancer, prostate cancer, and thyroid cancers. The study endpoint was fatal and non-fatal CVD, which was defined as ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke according to the National Health Insurance Research Database. We compared the risk of CVD between patients with cancer and age- and sex-matched (1:1 ratio) participants who did not have cancer or CVD. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression analysis. To evaluate the chronological trend, we estimated the HRs and 95% CI yearly since the diagnosis. RESULTS: Among the 552,485 cancer patients (mean age, 60.6 years; women, 47.7%) during the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, 32,634 cases of fatal and non-fatal CVD were identified. Compared with that noted in the non-cancer population, the overall fully adjusted HR with 95% CI was 1.28 (1.25, 1.30) in the cancer population. The CVD risk was the highest in the first year, the adjusted HR with 95% CI was 2.31 (2.23, 2.40), and this risk decreased yearly. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cancer had a significantly higher risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD. The risk was the highest in the first year since diagnosis and decreased yearly.

A stabilized spatiotemporal kriging method for disease mapping and application to male oral cancer and female breast cancer in Taiwan.

Mapping spacetime disease rates can provide a more in-depth understanding of their distribution and trends. Traditional spatiotemporal kriging methods can break the constraints of geopolitical boundaries and time intervals. Still, disease rates in densely and sparsely populated areas are stabilized to the same degree, resulting in a map that is oversmoothed in some places but undersmoothed in others. The stabilized spatiotemporal kriging method proposed in this study overcomes this problem by allowing for nonconstant variances over space and time. A spatiotemporal map of the standardized incidence ratio for oral cancer in men in Taiwan between 1997 and 2017 reveals that the high-risk areas for oral cancer are in the midwestern and southeastern regions of Taiwan, spreading toward the center and north, with persistent cold spots in the northern and southwestern urban regions. However, the corresponding map for breast cancer in women in Taiwan reveals that the high-risk areas for breast cancer are concentrated in densely populated urban regions in the west. Spatiotemporal maps facilitate our understanding of disease risk dynamics. We recommend using the proposed stabilized spatiotemporal kriging method for mapping disease rates across space and time.

Increased standardised incidence ratio of cardiovascular diseases among colorectal cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Evidence regarding the relationship between colorectal cancer and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is limited. Thus, in this study, we aimed to determine the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) of CVDs in colorectal cancer patients in Taiwan. METHODS: A population-based cohort study enrolling the incident colorectal cancer population based on the Cancer Registry Database from 2007 to 2016 was conducted (n = 94,233, mean age: 62.4 years, 43.0% women). New cases of CVD, including coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke, through 31 December 2018 were obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database and National Death Registry. Compared with the general population (n = 1,977,659, mean age: 44.3 years, 49.6% women), age- and sex-specific SIRs for CVDs were calculated by the time since diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 6852 cardiovascular events occurred in colorectal cancer patients during a median follow-up of 4.4 years. The SIR of CVD was highest in the first year after diagnosis (SIR: 1.45, 95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.50); however, this decreased to the same value as that of the general population in later years. Similar patterns were observed for the SIR of coronary heart disease. However, the SIR of ischemic stroke among colorectal cancer patients was low from the second year following cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Colorectal cancer patients are at an increased risk of developing CVD, especially coronary heart disease, during the first 3 years following colorectal cancer diagnosis.

Effects of Intra-articular Coinjections of Hyaluronic Acid and Hypertonic Dextrose on Knee Osteoarthritis: A Prospective, Randomized, Double-Blind Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether intra-articular coinjection with hypertonic dextrose improves the outcome of hyaluronic acid (HA) prolotherapy for knee osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, double-blind trial. SETTING: Medical center in Taiwan. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 104 participants who fulfilled the American College of Rheumatology clinical and radiographic criteria for knee OA with a Kellgren-Lawrence score of 2 or 3 were recruited (N=104). INTERVENTIONS: The participants were blocked randomized to the treatment (HA and hypertonic dextrose) or control (HA and normal saline) group. Ultrasound-guided knee intra-articular injections were administered once a week for 3 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes were performance-based physical function measures (regular and fastest walking speed, stair climbing time, and chair rising time), and the secondary outcomes were the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS). The outcome measures were assessed before the injections and at 1 week and 1, 3, and 6 months after the injections. The data were analyzed through repeated-measures analysis of covariance. RESULTS: Significant intergroup difference-in-differences favoring the treatment group were observed for improvements in stair climbing time (-1.6; 95% confidence interval, -8.56 to 4.16; P=.38) and WOMAC physical function (-21.2; 95% confidence interval, -126.05 to 103.83; P = .045) at 6 months. The group×time interaction effects favored the treatment group for regular (P=.001) and fastest walking speed (P=.001) and chair rising time (P=.038); WOMAC stiffness (P < .001) and physical function (P = .003); and KOOS for pain (P = .035), other symptoms (P=.022), and quality of life (P=.012). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with HA plus normal saline coinjections, HA plus dextrose coinjections resulted in more significant improvements in stair climbing time and physical function at 6 months, effectively decreased pain, and improved physical function and physical functional performance from 1 week to 6 months. HA plus dextrose coinjections could be a suitable adjuvant therapy for patients with knee OA.

A Survivorship-Period-Cohort Model for Cancer Survival: Application to Liver Cancer in Taiwan, 1997-2016.

Monitoring survival in cancer is a common concern for patients, physicians, and public health researchers. The traditional cohort approach for monitoring cancer prognosis has a timeliness problem. In this paper, we propose a survivorship-period-cohort (SPC) model for examining the effects of survivorship, period, and year-of-diagnosis cohort on cancer prognosis and for predicting future trends in cancer survival. We used the developed SPC model to evaluate the relative survival (RS) of patients with liver cancer in Taiwan (diagnosed from 1997 to 2016) and to predict future trends in RS by imputing incomplete follow-up data for recently diagnosed patient cohorts. We used cross-validation to select the extrapolation method and bootstrapping to estimate the 95% confidence interval for RS. We found that 5-year cumulative RS increased for both men and women with liver cancer diagnosed after 2003. For patients diagnosed before 2010, the 5-year cumulative RS rate for men was lower than that for women; thereafter, the rates were better for men than for women. The SPC model can help elucidate the effects of survivorship, period, and year-of-diagnosis cohort effects on cancer prognosis. Moreover, the SPC model can be used to monitor cancer prognosis in real time and predict future trends; thus, we recommend its use.

Mortality trends in chronic liver disease and cirrhosis from 1981 to 2015 in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Globally, the morbidity and mortality rates for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis are increasing. The National Viral Hepatitis Therapy Program in Taiwan was implemented in 2003, but evidence regarding the program's effect on the trends of mortality for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is limited. METHODS: We analyzed mortality rates for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis in Taiwan for the period from 1981 to 2015. An autoregressive age-period-cohort model was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects. RESULTS: Age-adjusted mortality rates for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis all displayed a flat but variable trend from 1981 to 2004 and a decreasing trend thereafter for both sexes. The age-period-cohort model revealed differential age gradients between the two sexes; mortality rates in the oldest age group (90-94 years) were 12 and 66 times higher than those in the youngest age group (30-34 years) for men and women, respectively. The period effects indicated that mortality rates declined after 2004 in both sexes. Mortality rates decreased in men but increased in women in the 1891-1940 birth cohorts and increased in both sexes in the birth cohorts from 1950 onward. CONCLUSIONS: The National Viral Hepatitis Therapy Program in Taiwan may have contributed to the decrease in mortality rates for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis in adulthood.

Epidemiology of cutaneous sebaceous carcinoma.

There has been uncertainty about the demographics and anatomical distribution of cutaneous sebaceous carcinoma. This study aims to investigate these uncertainties by analysing data from various countries. Data were obtained from cancer registries of the United States, England, Norway and Taiwan, and incidence rates were calculated with uniform age-adjustment. sebaceous carcinoma was more commonly reported in males than females in white populations, whereas the inverse was true in Taiwan. Ocular sebaceous carcinoma was more commonly reported in females than males in all populations, despite male predominance in white populations. The majority (approx. 70-90%) occurred on head and neck in Asians and whites. Age-adjusted incidence rate (to the 2000-2025 WHO World Standard Population) ranged from 0.07 to 0.18 per 100 000 person-years and was not higher in Taiwanese than in white populations.

Accuracy of long-form data in the Taiwan cancer registry.

The Taiwan Cancer Registry (TCR) is a nationwide population-based registry that collects the data of patients with newly diagnosed cancer from hospitals with ≥50 beds. TCR data are high quality in terms of completeness and timeliness. However, accuracy is also a crucial quality indicator. This study evaluated the accuracy rates of selected 55 major items in the long-form TCR data between 2014 and 2016 with 700 reported cases randomly selected from 25 long-form-reporting hospitals. We calculated the accuracy rates of the reported data by employing a reabstracted chart review. Among the 55 items, the accuracy rates of 38 (69%) were at least 95%, those of 10 (18%) were between 90% and 95%, those of 5 (9%) were between 85% and 90%, and the remaining 2 (4%) were between 80% and 85%. This demonstrates a high degree of accuracy in the TCR long-form data.