Persistent High Long-term Excess Mortality After Elective AAA Repair Especially in Women: A Large Population-based Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this time-trend analysis is to estimate long-term excess mortality and associated cardiovascular risk for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients after elective repair while addressing the changes in AAA management and patient selection over time. BACKGROUND: Despite the intensification of endovascular aneurysm repair and cardiovascular risk management, Swedish population data suggest that AAA patients retain a persistently high long-term mortality after elective repair. The question is whether this reflects suboptimal treatment, a changing patient population over time, or a national phenomenon. METHODS: Nationwide time-trend analysis including 40,730 patients (87% men) following elective AAA repair between 1995 and 2017. Three timeframes were compared, each reflecting changes in the use of endovascular aneurysm repair and intensification of cardiovascular risk management. Relative survival analyses were used to estimate disease-specific excess mortality. Competing risk of death analysis evaluated the risk of cardiovascular versus noncardiovascular death. Sensitivity analysis evaluated the impact of changes in patient selection over time. RESULTS: Short-term excess mortality significantly improved over time. Long-term excess mortality remained high with a doubled mortality risk for women (relative excess risk=1.87, 95% CI: 1.73-2.02). Excess mortality did not differ between age categories. The risk of cardiovascular versus noncardiovascular death remained similar over time, with a higher risk of cardiovascular death for women. Changes in patient population (ie, older and more comorbid patients in the latter period) marginally impacted excess mortality (2%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite changes in AAA care, patients retain a high long-term excess mortality after elective repair with a persistent high cardiovascular mortality risk. In this, a clear sex - but no age - disparity stands out.

Trigger Factors for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Case-Crossover Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether certain activities can trigger spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remains unknown. Insights into factors that trigger vessel rupture resulting in ICH improves knowledge on the pathophysiology of ICH. We assessed potential trigger factors and their risk for ICH onset. METHODS: We included consecutive patients diagnosed with ICH between July 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019. We interviewed patients on their exposure to 12 potential trigger factors (eg, Valsalva maneuvers) in the (hazard) period soon before onset of ICH and their normal exposure to these trigger factors in the year before the ICH. We used the case-crossover design to calculate relative risks (RR) for potential trigger factors. RESULTS: We interviewed 149 patients (mean age 64, 66% male) with ICH. Sixty-seven (45%) had a lobar hemorrhage, 60 (40%) had a deep hemorrhage, 19 (13%) had a cerebellar hemorrhage, and 3 (2%) had an intraventricular hemorrhage. For ICH in general, there was an increased risk within an hour after caffeine consumption (RR=2.5 [95% CI=1.8-3.6]), within an hour after coffee consumption alone (RR=4.8 [95% CI=3.3-6.9]), within an hour after lifting >25 kg (RR=6.6 [95% CI=2.2-19.9]), within an hour after minor head trauma (RR=10.1 [95% CI=1.7-60.2]), within an hour after sexual activity (RR=30.4 [95% CI=16.8-55.0]), within an hour after straining for defecation (RR=37.6 [95% CI=22.4-63.4]), and within an hour after vigorous exercise (RR=21.8 [95% CI=12.6-37.8]). Within 24 hours after flu-like disease or fever, the risk for ICH was also increased (RR=50.7 [95% CI=27.1-95.1]). Within an hour after Valsalva maneuvers, the RR for deep ICH was 3.5 (95% CI=1.7-6.9) and for lobar ICH the RR was 2.0 (95% CI=0.9-4.2). CONCLUSIONS: We identified one infection and several blood pressure related trigger factors for ICH onset, providing new insights into the pathophysiology of vessel rupture resulting in ICH.

Association between prescription opioid use and unplanned intensive care unit admission and mortality in the adult population of the Netherlands: a registry study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid overdoses are increasing in the Netherlands, and there may be other harms associated with prescription opioid use. We investigated the relationship between prescription opioid use and unplanned ICU admission and death. METHODS: This is an analysis of linked government registries of the adult Dutch population (age ≥18 years) alive on January 1, 2018. The co-primary outcomes were ICU admission and death up to 1 year. Crude event rates and event-specific adjusted hazard rates (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using multivariable analysis for people with and without exposure to an opioid prescription. RESULTS: We included 13 813 173 individuals, of whom 32 831 were admitted to the ICU and 152 259 died during the 1 year follow-up. Rates of ICU admission and death amongst people who reimbursed an opioid prescription were 5.87 and 62.2 per 1000 person-years, and rates of ICU admission and death in those without a prescription were 2.03 and 6.34, respectively. Exposed individuals had a higher rate of both ICU admission (aHR 2.53; 95% CI: 2.45-2.60) and death (aHR 7.11; 95% CI: 7.02-7.19) compared with unexposed individuals. Both outcomes were more frequent amongst prescription opioid users across a range of subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of ICU admission and death was higher amongst prescription opioid users than non-users in the full cohort and in subgroups. These findings represent an important public health concern.

Predictors, time course, and outcomes of persistence patterns in oral anticoagulation for non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a Dutch Nationwide Cohort Study.

AIMS: Persistence with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has become a concern in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients, but whether this affects prognosis is rarely studied. We investigated the persistence with oral anticoagulants (OACs) and its association with prognosis among a nationwide cohort of NVAF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: DOAC-naive NVAF patients who started to use DOACs for ischaemic stroke prevention between 2013 and 2018 were included using Dutch national statistics. Persistence with OACs was determined based on the presence of a 100-day gap between the last prescription and the end of study period. In 93 048 patients, 75.7% had a baseline CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥2. The cumulative incidence of persistence with OACs was 88.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 87.9-88.3%], 82.6% (95% CI 82.3-82.9%), 77.7% (95% CI 77.3-78.1%), and 72.0% (95% CI 71.5-72.5%) at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after receiving DOACs, respectively. Baseline characteristics associated with better persistence with OACs included female sex, age range 65-74 years, permanent atrial fibrillation, previous exposure to vitamin K antagonists, stroke history (including transient ischaemic attack), and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2. Non-persistence with OACs was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome of ischaemic stroke and ischaemic stroke-related death [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.79, 95% CI 1.49-2.15] and ischaemic stroke (aHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.29-1.93) compared with being persistent with OACs. CONCLUSION: At least a quarter of NVAF patients were non-persistent with OACs within 4 years, which was associated with poor efficacy of ischaemic stroke prevention. The identified baseline characteristics may help identify patients at risk of non-persistence.

Opioid prescribing patterns after arthroplasty of the knee and hip: a Dutch nationwide cohort study from 2013 to 2018.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Numbers on opioid prescriptions over time in arthroplasty patients are currently lacking. Therefore we determined the annual opioid prescribing rate in patients who received a hip/knee arthroplasty (HA/KA) between 2013 and 2018. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The Dutch Foundation for Pharmaceutical Statistics, which provides national coverage of medication prescriptions, was linked to the Dutch Arthroplasty Register, which provides arthroplasty procedures. The opioid prescription rates were expressed as the number of defined daily dosages (DDD) and morphine milligram equivalent (MME) per person year (PY) and stratified for primary and revision arthroplasty. Amongst subgroups for age (< 75; ≥ 75 years) and sex for primary osteoarthritis arthroplasties, prescription rates stratified for opioid type (weak/strong) and prevalent preoperative opioid prescriptions (yes/no) were assessed. RESULTS: 48,051 primary KAs and 53,964 HAs were included, and 3,540 revision KAs and 4,118 HAs. In 2013, after primary KA 58% were dispensed ≥ 1 opioid within the first year; this increased to 89% in 2018. For primary HA these numbers increased from 38% to 75%. In KAs the prescription rates increased from 13.1 DDD/PY to 14.4 DDD/PY, mainly due to oxycodone prescriptions (2.9 DDD/PY to 7.3 DDD/PY), while tramadol decreased (7.3 DDD/PY to 4.6 DDD/PY). The number of MME/PY also increased (888 MME/PY to 1224 MME/PY). Similar changes were observed for HA and revision arthroplasties. Irrespective of joint, prescription of opioid medication increased over time, with highest levels in groups with preoperative opioid prescriptions while weak opioid prescriptions decreased. INTERPRETATION: In the Netherlands, between 2013 and 2018 postoperative opioid prescriptions after KA and HA increased, mainly due to increased oxycodone prescriptions with highest levels after surgeries with preoperative prescriptions.

Correction: Prediction of recurrent venous thrombosis in all patients with a first venous thrombotic event: The Leiden Thrombosis Recurrence Risk Prediction model (L-TRRiP).

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002883.].

Glucocorticoid use and risk of first and recurrent venous thromboembolism: self-controlled case-series and cohort study.

Glucocorticoid treatment increases venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. Whether this is due to the medication or the underlying disease, or affects the risk of VTE recurrence, has been difficult to determine. The aim of our present study was to quantify the risk for first and recurrent VTE associated with oral glucocorticoids use, considering the underlying disease. A total of 2547 patients with VTE from the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of Risk Factors for Venous Thrombosis (MEGA) study were linked to the Dutch Pharmaceutical Statistics register. The risk of first VTE during periods of exposure with oral glucocorticoids was estimated by the self-controlled case series method and that of recurrent VTE was examined in a cohort design. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of first VTE in the period of glucocorticoid treatment was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·55-4·80]. This IRR was 2·53 (95% CI 1·10-5·72) in the week before treatment started, 5·28 (95% CI 2·89-9·53) in the first 7 days of treatment, remained elevated afterwards and decreased to 1·55 (95% CI 0·85-3·12) after 6 months, as compared to unexposed periods. The hazard ratio for recurrence was 2·72 (95% CI 1·64-4·78) in treatment periods as compared with no treatment. The increased risk of VTE associated with oral glucocorticoid treatment is due to a combined effect of the treatment and the underlying disease, remaining high during the first months of prescription.

Association Between Hepatic Triglyceride Content and Coagulation Factors: The Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity Study.

OBJECTIVE: Whether hepatic triglyceride content (HTGC) contributes to hypercoagulability beyond total body fat (TBF) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is unclear. We, therefore, aimed to investigate the association between HTGC and coagulation factors (F)I (fibrinogen), VIII, IX, and XI while adjusting for TBF and VAT. Approach and Results: In this cross-sectional analysis of the NEO study (Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity; n=6671), a random subset of participants underwent magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy to assess VAT and HTGC (n=2580). We excluded participants without complete imaging and coagulation assessment, and with history of liver disease, venous thrombosis, or on anticoagulation. Mean differences in coagulation factor levels across HTGC quartiles were estimated by linear regression adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, education, alcohol intake, physical activity, smoking, estrogen, and menopause, in addition to TBF and VAT. Among the 1946 participants included, median HTGC was 2.66% (interquartile range: 1.34%-6.27%). Coagulation factor levels increased dose-dependently across HTGC quartiles. Mean differences between the fourth and first quartiles were 14.7 mg/dL (95% CI, 2.1-27.2) for fibrinogen, 6.7 IU/dL (95% CI, 0.5-12.9) for FVIII, 26.1 IU/dL (95% CI, 22.4-29.8) for FIX, and 8.6 IU/dL (95% CI, 4.6-12.6) for FXI. With further adjustment for TBF and VAT, the dose-response association of HTGC with FIX persisted, whereas associations with other factors disappeared. CONCLUSIONS: HTGC was associated with various coagulation factors, of which FIX remained associated with HTGC after adjustment for TBF and VAT. HTGC might contribute to venous thrombosis risk beyond total body and visceral fat through FIX levels.

Differential effect of statin use on coagulation markers: an active comparative analysis in the NEO study.

BACKGROUND: Statins are a potential treatment for venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis complementary to conventional anticoagulants without associated bleeding complications. This study aimed to compare pro-thrombotic activities of different classes of lipid-lowering drugs in an active comparator design and determine whether there is a relation between statin versus fibrate/niacin use and pro-coagulant factor outcomes. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis of participants from the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study using any class of lipid-lowering drugs, including any types of statins, niacin, and fibrates. We performed linear regression analyses to determine fibrinogen, factor (F) VIII, FIX, and FXI activity in statins versus fibrate/niacin users and adjusted for age, sex, tobacco smoking, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes, and prevalent cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Among 1043 participants, the mean age was 58.4 ± 5.2 years, 61% were men, and the mean BMI was 31.3 ± 4.5 kg/m2. Clinical characteristics were balanced between statin and fibrate/niacin users. Statin users had lower mean FXI (18.3 IU/dL, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4 to 27.3) levels compared to fibrate/niacin users. The level of FVIII (15.8 IU/dL, 95% CI - 0.003 to 31.6), and FIX (11.3 IU/dL, 95% CI - 0.4 to 23.2) were lower in statin users than fibrate/niacin users with marginal statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Current statin use was associated with lower plasma levels of FXI than fibrate/niacin use. The effects on coagulation factors may, in part, explain the benefit of statin therapy rendered in primary and secondary prevention of VTE.

Adherence to direct oral anticoagulant treatment for atrial fibrillation in the Netherlands: A surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in patients with atrial fibrillation in every day practice may be less than in clinical trials. AIMS: To assess adherence to DOACs in atrial fibrillation patients in every day practice and identify predictors for non-adherence. METHODS: Individual linked dispensing data of atrial fibrillation patients who used DOACs were obtained from the Foundation for Pharmaceutical Statistics covering the Netherlands between 2012 and 2016. One year adherence to DOAC was calculated for initial DOAC as proportion of days covered (PDC) ≥80% and the association between clinical variables and adherence was assessed using logistic regression. In addition, we measured non-persistence, that is, patients who completely stopped their initial DOAC within 1 year follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 4797 apixaban-, 20 454 rivaroxaban- and 18 477 dabigatran users were included. The mean age was 69 years (n = 43 910), which was similar for the DOAC types. The overall proportion of patients with PDC ≥80% was 76%, which was highest for apixaban- (87%), followed by dabigatran- (80%) and rivaroxaban (69%) users. Multivariable analyses revealed that age ≤60 years, no concomitant drug use were predictors for non-adherence. Of atrial fibrillation patients who continued treatment, 97% had a PDC ≥80%, compared with only 56% for those who discontinued their DOAC treatment within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Non-adherence to DOACs was associated with age ≤60 years and no concomitant drugs use. Non-adherence was higher in patients who later discontinued DOAC treatment. Results of our study support research into interventions to improve adherence.

Major Bleeding Rates in Atrial Fibrillation Patients on Single, Dual, or Triple Antithrombotic Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Patients with atrial fibrillation generally require anticoagulant therapy and, at times, therapy with additional platelet aggregation inhibitors. Data are scarce on bleeding rates in high-risk groups receiving combination therapy, such as the elderly or patients with a high CHA2DS2-VASc score. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide cohort study of Danish patients with atrial fibrillation ≥50 years of age. Treatments were ascertained from a prescription database. These included no anticoagulant treatment, and treatment with vitamin K antagonists, direct oral anticoagulants, platelet inhibitors, and combinations of antithrombotic drugs. Incidence rates (IRs) of major bleeding and hazard ratios were estimated overall, and also stratified by treatment modality, age, CHA2DS2-VASc score, and comorbidity. Major bleeding was defined as bleeding requiring hospitalization or causing death. RESULTS: We identified 272 315 patients with atrial fibrillation. Median age was 75 years (interquartile range, 67-83) and 47% were women. Over a total follow-up period of 1 373 131 patient-years (PYs), 31 459 major bleeds occurred (IR 2.3/100 PYs; 95% CI, 2.3-2.3/100 PYs). In comparison with vitamin K antagonist monotherapy, adjusted hazard ratios of major bleeding were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.06-1.19) for dual antiplatelet therapy, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.76-1.89) for therapy with a vitamin K antagonist and an antiplatelet drug, 1.28 (95% CI, 1.13-1.44) for therapy of a direct oral anticoagulant with an antiplatelet drug, 3.73 (95% CI, 3.23-4.31) for vitamin K antagonist triple therapy, and 2.28 (95% CI, 1.67-3.12) for direct oral anticoagulant triple therapy. Subgroup analyses showed similar patterns. The IR for major bleeding was 10.2/100 PYs among patients receiving triple therapy. Very high major bleeding rates occurred among patients on triple therapy aged >90 years (IR 22.8/100 PYs) or with a CHA2DS2-VASc score >6 (IR 17.6/100 PYs) or with a history of major bleeding (IR 17.5/100 PYs). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with atrial fibrillation on triple therapy experienced high rates of major bleeding in comparison with patients on dual therapy or monotherapy. The high bleeding rates observed in patients on triple therapy >90 years of age or with a CHA2DS2-VASc score >6 or with a history of a major bleeding warrants careful consideration of such therapy in these patients.

Risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism in patients with HIV infection: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple studies have described a higher incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in people living with an HIV infection (PWH). However, data on the risk of recurrent VTE in this population are lacking, although this question is more important for clinical practice. This study aims to estimate the risk of recurrent VTE in PWH compared to controls and to identify risk factors for recurrence within this population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: PWH with a first VTE were derived from the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA) cohort (2003-2015), a nationwide ongoing cohort following up PWH in care in the Netherlands. Uninfected controls were derived from the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of risk factors for venous thrombosis (MEGA) follow-up study (1999-2003), a cohort of patients with a first VTE who initially participated in a case-control study in the Netherlands who were followed up for recurrent VTE. Selection was limited to persons with an index VTE suffering from deep vein thrombosis in the lower limbs and/or pulmonary embolism (PE). Participants were followed from withdrawal of anticoagulation to VTE recurrence, loss to follow-up, death, or end of study. We estimated incidence rates, cumulative incidence (accounting for competing risk of death) and hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, sex, and whether the index event was provoked or unprovoked. When analyzing risk factors among PWH, the main focus of analysis was the role of immune markers (cluster of differentiation 4 [CD4]+ T-cell count). There were 153 PWH (82% men, median 48 years) and 4,005 uninfected controls (45% men, median 49 years) with a first VTE (71% unprovoked in PWH, 34% unprovoked in controls) available for analysis. With 40 VTE recurrences during 774 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) in PWH and 635 VTE recurrences during 20,215 PYFU in controls, the incidence rates were 5.2 and 3.1 per 100 PYFU (HR: 1.70, 95% CI 1.23-2.36, p = 0.003). VTE consistently recurred more frequently per 100 PYFU in PWH in all predefined subgroups of men (5.6 versus 4.8), women (3.6 versus 1.9), and unprovoked (6.0 versus 5.2) or provoked (3.1 versus 2.1) first VTE. After adjustment, the VTE recurrence risk was higher in PWH compared to controls in the first year after anticoagulant discontinuation (HR: 1.67, 95% CI 1.04-2.70, p = 0.03) with higher cumulative incidences in PWH at 1 year (12.5% versus 5.6%) and 5 years (23.4% versus 15.3%) of follow-up. VTE recurred less frequently in PWH who were more immunodeficient at the first VTE, marked by a better CD4+ T-cell recovery on antiretroviral therapy and during anticoagulant therapy for the first VTE (adjusted HR: 0.81 per 100 cells/mm3 increase, 95% CI 0.67-0.97, p = 0.02). Sensitivity analyses addressing potential sources of bias confirmed our principal analyses. The main study limitations are that VTEs were adjudicated differently in the cohorts and that diagnostic practices changed during the 20-year study period. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the risk of recurrent VTE was elevated in PWH compared to controls. Among PWH, recurrence risk appeared to decrease with greater CD4+ T-cell recovery after a first VTE. This is relevant when deciding to (dis)continue anticoagulant therapy in PWH with otherwise unprovoked first VTE.

The joint effect of genetic risk factors and different types of combined oral contraceptives on venous thrombosis risk.

It is not known whether the synergistic effect of genetic markers, increasing the risk of venous thrombosis (VT), and combined oral contraceptives (COC) use varies between different types of progestogens in these preparations. We investigated the joint effect of genetic risk factor, that is, F5 rs6025, F2 rs1799963, and FGG rs2066865 mutations, and different progestogens on the risk of VT. The constrained maximum likelihood estimation (CMLE) method was used to calculate joint effects, expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals [CI]. As the dose of estrogen is known to be a risk factor for VT, analyses were restricted to COC with 30 µg estrogen and each progestogen. Overall, the joint effect of COC and genetic variants was lowest for COC containing the progestogen levonorgestrel, albeit CIs were wide. The OR (95% CI) of the four different analyses (i.e. joint effect with F5 rs6025, F2 rs1799963, F5 rs6025 or F2 rs1799963 and FGG rs2066865) ranged between 7·4 (5·4-10·2) and 24·8 (12·3-50·0) for levonorgestrel. For gestodene the joint effect ranged between 11·7 (7·2-19·1) and 30·9 (10·6-89·9). Desogestrel and cyproterone acetate had the highest risk estimates: 14·6 (9·7-21·9) and 32·6 (13·2-80·6) and 15·5 (9·7-24·9) and 44·4 (16·9-116·3) respectively. In women with inherited thrombophilia, COC containing levonorgestrel were associated with the lowest risk of VT, albeit the CIs were wide.

Rosuvastatin use increases plasma fibrinolytic potential: a randomised clinical trial.

We conducted a study to assess the effect of rosuvastatin use on fibrinolysis in patients with previous venous thromboembolism (VTE). This was a post hoc analysis within the STAtins Reduce Thrombophilia (START) study (NCT01613794). Plasma fibrinolytic potential, fibrinogen, plasmin inhibitor, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) and thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI) were measured before and after four weeks of rosuvastatin or no treatment in participants with prior confirmed VTE, after ending anticoagulant therapy. In the non-rosuvastatin group (n = 121), plasma fibrinolytic potential and individual fibrinolysis parameters did not change at the end of the study versus the baseline, whereas in the rosuvastatin group (n = 126), plasma fibrinolytic potential increased: the mean clot lysis time decreased by 8·75 min (95% CI -13·8 to -3·72), and plasmin inhibitor levels and TAFI activity were lower at the end of the study (-0·05 U/ml; 95% CI -0·07 to -0·02 and -4·77%; 95% CI -6·81 to -2·73, respectively). PAI-1 levels did not change and fibrinogen levels were 0·17 g/l (95% CI 0·04-0·29) higher. In participants with prior VTE, rosuvastatin use led to an increased fibrinolytic potential compared with non-statin use. Our findings support the need for further studies on the possible role for statins in the secondary prevention of VTE.

Why crowding matters in the time of COVID-19 pandemic? - a lesson from the carnival effect on the 2017/2018 influenza epidemic in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the association between crowding and transmission of viral respiratory infectious diseases, we investigated the change in transmission patterns of influenza and COVID-19 before and after a mass gathering event (i.e., carnival) in the Netherlands. METHODS: Information on individual hospitalizations related to the 2017/2018 influenza epidemic were accessed from Statistics Netherlands. The influenza cases were stratified between non-carnival and carnival regions. Distributions of influenza cases were plotted with time and compared between regions. A similar investigation in the early outbreak of COVID-19 was also conducted using open data from the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics between non-carnival and carnival regions were broadly similar. There were 13,836 influenza-related hospitalizations in the 2017/2018 influenza epidemic, and carnival fell about 1 week before the peak of these hospitalizations. The distributions of new influenza-related hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants with time between regions followed the same pattern with a surge of new cases in the carnival region about 1 week after carnival, which did not occur in the non-carnival region. The increase of new cases for COVID-19 in the carnival region exceeded that in the non-carnival region about 1 week after the first case was reported, but these results warrant caution as for COVID-19 there were no cases reported before the carnival and social measures were introduced shortly after carnival. CONCLUSION: In this study, a mass gathering event (carnival) was associated with aggravating the spread of viral respiratory infectious diseases.

Prediction of recurrent venous thrombosis in all patients with a first venous thrombotic event: The Leiden Thrombosis Recurrence Risk Prediction model (L-TRRiP).

BACKGROUND: Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common. Current guidelines suggest that patients with unprovoked VTE should continue anticoagulants unless they have a high bleeding risk, whereas all others can stop. Prediction models may refine this dichotomous distinction, but existing models apply only to patients with unprovoked first thrombosis. We aimed to develop a prediction model for all patients with first VTE, either provoked or unprovoked. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were used from two population-based cohorts of patients with first VTE from the Netherlands (Multiple Environment and Genetic Assessment of Risk Factors for Venous Thrombosis [MEGA] follow-up study, performed from 1994 to 2009; model derivation; n = 3,750) and from Norway (Tromsø study, performed from 1999 to 2016; model validation; n = 663). Four versions of a VTE prediction model were developed: model A (clinical, laboratory, and genetic variables), model B (clinical variables and fewer laboratory markers), model C (clinical and genetic factors), and model D (clinical variables only). The outcome measure was recurrent VTE. To determine the discriminatory power, Harrell's C-statistic was calculated. A prognostic score was assessed for each patient. Kaplan-Meier plots for the observed recurrence risks were created in quintiles of the prognostic scores. For each patient, the 2-year predicted recurrence risk was calculated. Models C and D were validated in the Tromsø study. During 19,201 person-years of follow-up (median duration 5.7 years) in the MEGA study, 507 recurrences occurred. Model A had the highest predictive capability, with a C-statistic of 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.76). The discriminative performance was somewhat lower in the other models, with C-statistics of 0.72 for model B, 0.70 for model C, and 0.69 for model D. Internal validation showed a minimal degree of optimism bias. Models C and D were externally validated, with C-statistics of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62-0.66) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66), respectively. According to model C, in 2,592 patients with provoked first events, 367 (15%) patients had a predicted 2-year risk of >10%, whereas in 1,082 patients whose first event was unprovoked, 484 (45%) had a predicted 2-year risk of <10%. A limitation of both cohorts is that laboratory measurements were missing in a substantial proportion of patients, which therefore were imputed. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model we propose applies to patients with provoked or unprovoked first VTE-except for patients with (a history of) cancer-allows refined risk stratification, and is easily usable. For optimal individualized treatment, a management study in which bleeding risks are also taken into account is necessary.

Glucose levels and diabetes are not associated with the risk of venous thrombosis: results from the MEGA case-control study.

It is unclear whether hyperglycaemia or diabetes mellitus are risk factors for a first venous thrombosis (VT). Self-reported diabetes status and fasting glucose (FG) measures were collected from the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment (MEGA) study to confirm these associations. FG levels were categorized based on the World Health Organization criteria [<6·1 (reference), 6·1-7·0 (2nd), ≥7·0 (3rd) mmol/l]. Logistic regression was performed to quantify the associations. Neither increased FG levels [Odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 0·98 (0·69-1·37) 2nd vs. reference, 0·97 (0·58-1·63) 3rd vs. reference] nor self-reported diabetes [1·12 (0·80-1·58)] were associated with an increased risk of a first VT.

Hyperhomocysteinaemia and the risk of recurrent venous thrombosis: results from the MEGA follow-up study.

The measurement of homocysteine is still part of routine thrombosis or thrombophilia work-up in many thrombosis centres in the world. Previous observational studies have shown that hyperhomocysteinaemia is associated with an increased risk of first and recurrent venous thrombosis (VT). Randomised trials, however, showed no benefit of homocysteine-lowering therapy on the risk of first or recurrent VT. This discrepancy could be explained by incomplete adjustment for confounders in the observational studies. We investigated in a large population-based follow-up study whether if the levels of homocysteine and its metabolites, methionine and cysteine, were associated with recurrent VT. Approximately three months after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment, homocysteine, methionine and cysteine concentrations were measured in 2210 patients with VT. During a median follow-up of 6·9 years, 340 patients developed a recurrence (incidence rate, 2·8/100 patient-years). We found that elevated homocysteine concentrations were not associated with an increased risk of recurrent VT, neither as a continuous variable per 5 µmol/l increase (hazard ratio [HR] 0·98 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0·90-1·04)) nor when levels were >95th (>23·0 µmol/l) percentile (HR 1·03 (95% CI, 0·65-1·64)). Similar results were obtained for cysteine and methionine values. We conclude that hyperhomocysteinaemia is not associated with an increased risk of recurrent VT.

Statin Therapy to Revert Hypercoagulability and Prevent Venous Thromboembolism: A Narrative Review.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) causes a major disease burden worldwide, so that effective preventive measures are warranted. Although oral anticoagulation is effective in preventing VTE episodes, bleeding complications are a major concern that may lead to treatment avoidance. Statin therapy, which is widely used for prevention of arterial cardiovascular disease, is a promising alternative treatment for VTE prophylaxis, as the drug may affect hemostasis without increasing the risk of bleeding. In the past years, clinical studies have suggested that statins can interfere with blood coagulation and, in turn, reduce the risk of VTE. These effects, however, are still regarded with skepticism, as the underlying mechanisms by which statins may affect hemostasis in humans are not clear and data showing that statin therapy reduces VTE risk mostly came from observational studies, while only one randomized trial was conducted to evaluate this issue. In this review, the authors summarize the currently available evidence regarding the effect of statin therapy on coagulation and on VTE prevention. Recent randomized data showed that statin therapy, in particular rosuvastatin, leads to decreased levels of coagulation factors in patients with prior VTE. This evidence provides a reasonable basis for interventional studies necessary to establish the efficacy of statins on reducing the risk of incident and recurrent VTE.

Quality of life and fear of cancer recurrence in T1 colorectal cancer patients treated with endoscopic or surgical tumor resection.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To optimize therapeutic decision-making in early invasive colorectal cancer (T1 CRC) patients, it is important to elicit the patient's perspective next to considering medical outcome. Because empirical data on patient-reported impact of different treatment options are lacking, we evaluated patients' quality of life, perceived time to recovery, and fear of cancer recurrence after endoscopic or surgical treatment for T1 CRC. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we selected patients with histologically confirmed T1 CRC who participated in the Dutch Bowel Cancer Screening Programme and received endoscopic or surgical treatment between January 2014 and July 2017. Quality of life was measured using the European Organization for Research and Treatment 30-item Core Quality of Life Questionnaire and the 5-level EuroQoL 5-dimension questionnaire. We used the Cancer Worry Scale (CWS) to evaluate patients' fear of cancer recurrence. A question on perceived time to recovery after treatment was also included in the set of questionnaires sent to patients. RESULTS: Of all 119 eligible patients, 92.4% responded to the questionnaire (endoscopy group, 55/62; surgery group, 55/57). Compared with the surgery group, perceived time to recovery was on average 3 months shorter in endoscopically treated patients after adjustment for confounders (19.9 days vs 111.3 days; P = .001). The 2 treatment groups were comparable with regard to global quality of life, functioning domains, and symptom severity scores. Moreover, patients in the endoscopy group did not report more fear of cancer recurrence than those in the surgery group (CWS score, 0-40; endoscopy 7.6 vs surgery 9.7; P = .140). CONCLUSIONS: From the patient's perspective, endoscopic treatment provides a quicker recovery than surgery, without provoking more fear of cancer recurrence or any deterioration in quality of life. These results contribute to the shared therapeutic decision-making process of clinicians and T1 CRC patients.