Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 CE.

The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1-3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic-European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300-2004 CE (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 CE as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.

The spatiotemporal distribution of historical malaria cases in Sweden: a climatic perspective.

BACKGROUND: Understanding of the impacts of climatic variability on human health remains poor despite a possibly increasing burden of vector-borne diseases under global warming. Numerous socioeconomic variables make such studies challenging during the modern period while studies of climate-disease relationships in historical times are constrained by a lack of long datasets. Previous studies have identified the occurrence of malaria vectors, and their dependence on climate variables, during historical times in northern Europe. Yet, malaria in Sweden in relation to climate variables is understudied and relationships have never been rigorously statistically established. This study seeks to examine the relationship between malaria and climate fluctuations, and to characterise the spatio-temporal variations at parish level during severe malaria years in Sweden 1749-1859. METHODS: Symptom-based annual malaria case/death data were obtained from nationwide parish records and military hospital records in Stockholm. Pearson (rp) and Spearman's rank (rs) correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate inter-annual relationship between malaria data and long meteorological series. The climate response to larger malaria events was further explored by Superposed Epoch Analysis, and through Geographic Information Systems analysis to map spatial variations of malaria deaths. RESULTS: The number of malaria deaths showed the most significant positive relationship with warm-season temperature of the preceding year. The strongest correlation was found between malaria deaths and the mean temperature of the preceding June-August (rs = 0.57, p < 0.01) during the 1756-1820 period. Only non-linear patterns can be found in response to precipitation variations. Most malaria hot-spots, during severe malaria years, concentrated in areas around big inland lakes and southern-most Sweden. CONCLUSIONS: Unusually warm and/or dry summers appear to have contributed to malaria epidemics due to both indoor winter transmission and the evidenced long incubation and relapse time of P. vivax, but the results also highlight the difficulties in modelling climate-malaria associations. The inter-annual spatial variation of malaria hot-spots further shows that malaria outbreaks were more pronounced in the southern-most region of Sweden in the first half of the nineteenth century compared to the second half of the eighteenth century.

Spatial variability and temporal trends in water-use efficiency of European forests.

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.

Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty's capital in 1644 CE.

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period. However, the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear. Here, we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from 1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China, which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing. Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim, which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China, but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures. This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Niña-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China, as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas. These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

Legacy of last millennium timber use on plant cover in Central Europe: Insights from tree rings and pollen.

Throughout history, humans have relied on wood for constructions, tool production or as an energy source. How and to what extent these human activities have impacted plant abundance and composition over a long-term perspective is, however, not well known. To address this knowledge gap, we combined 44,239 precisely dated tree-ring samples from economically and ecologically important tree species (spruce, fir, pine, oak) from historical buildings, and pollen-based plant cover estimates using the REVEALS model from 169 records for a total of 34 1° × 1° grid cells for Central Europe. Building activity and REVEALS estimates were compared for the entire study region (4-15°E, 46-51°N), and for low (<500 m asl) and mid/high elevations (≥500 m asl) in 100-year time windows over the period 1150-1850. Spruce and oak were more widely used in wooden constructions, amounting to 35 % and 32 %, respectively, compared to pine and fir. Besides wood properties and species abundance, tree diameters of harvested individuals, being similar for all four species, were found to be the most crucial criterion for timber selection throughout the last millennium. Regarding land use changes, from the 1150-1250's onwards, forest cover generally decreased due to deforestation until 1850, especially at lower elevations, resulting in a more heterogeneous landscape. The period 1650-1750 marks a distinct change in the environmental history of Central Europe; increasing agriculture and intense forest management practices were introduced to meet the high demands of an increasing population and intensifying industrialization, causing a decrease in palynological diversity, especially at low elevations. Likely the characteristic vegetation structure and composition of contemporary landscapes originated from that period. We further show that land use has impacted vegetation composition and diversity at an increasing speed leading to a general homogenization of landscapes through time, highlighting the limited environmental benefits of even-aged plantation forestry.

The negative impact of increasing temperatures on rice yields in southern China.

China is the main producer and consumer of rice in the world, and rice is a major staple food grain for more than half of the world's population. Reduced rice yields caused by climate factors not only affect the food security of China, but also has global repercussions. Thus, it is vital to assess the potential impact of climate warming on rice production. Using daily temperature and phenology records of double-cropping rice from agro-meteorological stations in southern China, the influence of increased temperatures on rice yields during the last several decades was investigated. Associated with an increase in average daily mean temperatures by 0.7 °C during 2009-2018 relative to 1961-1970, Killing Degree Days (KDD), an indicator for damaging high temperature, for early and late rice increased by 110% and 88.6% respectively. However, the negative influence of KDDs on yields was mainly evident for early rice, because high temperatures occurred frequently during the sensitive grain-filling period; early-rice yields showed a decrease of 8% per 1 °C increase in mean growing season air temperature. Late rice yields, on the other hand, were not as negatively influenced by increasing temperatures as early rice, because high temperature usually occurred during the vegetative growth stage, which was not so sensitive to high temperature.

Optimal Strategy on Radiation Estimation for Calculating Universal Thermal Climate Index in Tourism Cities of China.

The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is believed to be a very powerful tool for providing information on human thermal perception in the domain of public health, but the solar radiation as an input variable is difficult to access. Thus, this study aimed to explore the optimal strategy on estimation of solar radiation to increase the accuracy in UTCI calculation, and to identify the spatial and temporal variation in UTCI over China. With daily meteorological data collected in 35 tourism cities in China from 1961 to 2020, two sunshine-based Angstrom and Ogelman models, and two temperature-based Bristow and Hargreaves models, together with neural network and support vector machine-learning methods, were tested against radiation measurements. The results indicated that temperature-based models performed the worst with the lowest NSE and highest RMSE. The machine-learning methods performed better in calibration, but the predictive ability decreased significantly in validation due to big data requirements. In contrast, the sunshine-based Angstrom model performed best with high NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) of 0.84 and low RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 35.4 J/m2 s in validation, which resulted in a small RMSE of about 1.2 °C in UTCI calculation. Thus, Angstrom model was selected as the optimal strategy on radiation estimation for UTCI calculation over China. The spatial distribution of UTCI showed that days under no thermal stress were high in tourism cities in central China within a range from 135 to 225 days, while the largest values occurred in Kunming and Lijiang in southwest China. In addition, days under no thermal stress during a year have decreased in most tourism cities of China, which could be attributed to the asymmetric changes in significant decrease in frost days and slightly increase in hot days. However, days under no thermal stress in summer time have indeed decreased, accompanying with increasing days under strong stress, especially in the developed regions such as Yangze River Delta and Zhujiang River Delta. Based on the study, we conclude that UTCI can successfully depict the overall spatial distribution and temporal change of the thermal environments in the tourism cities over China, and can be recommend as an efficient index in the operational services for assessing and predicting thermal perception for public health. However, extreme cold and heat stress in the tourism cities of China were not revealed by UTCI due to mismatch of the daily UTCI with category at hourly scale, which makes it an urgent task to redefine category at daily scale in the next research work.

Spatial risk assessment of global change impacts on Swedish seagrass ecosystems.

Improved knowledge on the risk in ecologically important habitats on a regional scale from multiple stressors is critical for managing functioning and resilient ecosystems. This risk assessment aimed to identify seagrass ecosystems in southern Sweden that will be exposed to a high degree of change from multiple global change stressors in mid- and end-of-century climate change conditions. Risk scores were calculated from the expected overlap of three stressors: sea surface temperature increases, ocean acidification and wind driven turbid conditions. Three high-risk regions were identified as areas likely to be exposed to a particularly high level of pressure from the global stressors by the end of the century. In these areas it can be expected that there will be a large degree of stressor change from the current conditions. Given the ecological importance of seagrass meadows for maintaining high biodiversity and a range of other ecosystem services, these risk zones should be given high priority for incorporation into management strategies, which can attempt to reduce controllable stressors in order to mitigate the consequences of some of the impending pressures and manage for maintained ecosystem resilience.

Impacts of Drought on Maize and Soybean Production in Northeast China During the Past Five Decades.

Climate change has a distinct impact on agriculture in China, particularly in the northeast, a key agriculture area sensitive to extreme hydroclimate events. Using monthly climate and agriculture data, the influence of drought on maize and soybean yields-two of the main crops in the region-in northeast China since 1961 to 2017 were investigated. The results showed that the temperature in the growing season increased by 1.0 °C from the period 1998-2017 to the period 1961-1980, while the annual precipitation decreased slightly. However, precipitation trends varied throughout the growing season (May-September), increasing slightly in May and June, but decreasing in July, August and September, associated with the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon. Consequently, the annual and growing season drought frequency increased by 15%, and 25%, respectively, in the period 1998-2017 relative to the period 1961-1980. The highest drought frequency (55%) was observed in September. At the same time, the drought intensity during the growing season increased by 7.8%. The increasing frequency and intensity of drought had negative influences on the two crops. During moderate drought years in the period 1961-2017, 3.2% and 10.4% of the provincial maize and soybean yields were lost, respectively. However, during more severe drought years, losses doubled for soybean (21.8%), but increased more than four-fold for maize (14.0%). Moreover, in comparison to the period 1961-1980, a higher proportion of the yields were lost in the period 1998-2017, particularly for maize, which increased by 15% (increase for soybean was 2.4%). This change largely depends on increasing droughts in August and September, when both crops are in their filling stages. The impact of drought on maize and soybean production was different during different growth stages, where a strong relationship was noted between drought and yield loss of soybean in its filling stage. Given the sensitivity of maize and soybean yields in northeast China to drought, and the observed production trends, climate change will likely have significant negative impacts on productivity in the future.

Abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over inner East Asia beyond the tipping point.

Unprecedented heatwave-drought concurrences in the past two decades have been reported over inner East Asia. Tree-ring-based reconstructions of heatwaves and soil moisture for the past 260 years reveal an abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over this region. Enhanced land-atmosphere coupling, associated with persistent soil moisture deficit, appears to intensify surface warming and anticyclonic circulation anomalies, fueling heatwaves that exacerbate soil drying. Our analysis demonstrates that the magnitude of the warm and dry anomalies compounding in the recent two decades is unprecedented over the quarter of a millennium, and this trend clearly exceeds the natural variability range. The "hockey stick"-like change warns that the warming and drying concurrence is potentially irreversible beyond a tipping point in the East Asian climate system.

The influence of excess precipitation on winter wheat under climate change in China from 1961 to 2017.

Winter wheat is one of China's most important staple food crops, and its growth and productivity are influenced by climate. Given its importance, we investigated the influence of excess precipitation under recent climate change on winter wheat in east-central China during 1961-2017. Although annual precipitation in the studied region decreased slightly, it increased during the winter wheat flowering and maturity period (May to June). Concurrently, the number of late growing season sunshine hours decreased. Our results showed that about 44% of the years with excess precipitation and less than normal radiation (16 years) were associated with decreasing winter wheat yields. Furthermore, during most years, precipitation of 50% above normal resulted in large decreases in winter wheat production in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, some of the wetter parts of the studied region. These results indicated that the grain yield variability of winter wheat was mainly influenced by excess precipitation in May, where precipitation could explain 70%-78% of yield variability in the wet parts. Moreover, excess precipitation can induce Fusarium head blight as well as wheat sprouting of pre-harvest, both affecting the grain quality of winter wheat. Projected increases in precipitation throughout the 21st century in the studied region, warrants further studies of how to maintain the winter wheat production in a changing climate.

Agricultural Adaptation to Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau.

The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sensitive areas in China and has been significantly affected by global warming. From 1961 to 2017, the annual air temperature increased by 0.32 °C/decade over the Tibetan Plateau, which is the highest in the whole of China. Furthermore, this is a trend that is projected to continue by 0.30 °C/decade from 2018 to 2050 due to global warming using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The increased temperature trend in recent decades has been highest in winter, which has been positive for the safe dormancy of winter wheat. In order to investigate agricultural adaptation to climate change in the Tibetan plateau, we used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) cropping systems model and weather data from the regional climate model RegCM4, to simulate winter wheat production in Guide county between 2018 and 2050. The simulated winter wheat potential yields amounted to 6698.3 kg/ha from 2018 to 2050, which showed the wheat yields would increase by 81%, if winter wheat was planted instead of spring wheat in the Tibetan Plateau with the correct amount of irrigation water. These results indicate that there are not only risks to crop yields from climate change, but also potential benefits. Global warming introduced the possibility to plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat over the Tibetan Plateau. These findings are very important for farmers and government agencies dealing with agricultural adaptation in a warmer climate.

Author Correction: Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE.

The original version of this Article contained an error in the Data Availability section, which incorrectly read 'All data will be freely available via https://www.ams.ethz.ch/research.html .' The correct version states ' http://www.ams.ethz.ch/research/published-data.html ' in place of ' https://www.ams.ethz.ch/research.html '. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE.

Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the 14C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770-780 and 990-1000 CE. Distinct 14C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved 14C measurements are needed.

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries.

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

Climate Change Increases Drought Stress of Juniper Trees in the Mountains of Central Asia.

Assessments of climate change impacts on forests and their vitality are essential for semi-arid environments such as Central Asia, where the mountain regions belong to the globally important biodiversity hotspots. Alterations in species distribution or drought-induced tree mortality might not only result in a loss of biodiversity but also in a loss of other ecosystem services. Here, we evaluate spatial trends and patterns of the growth-climate relationship in a tree-ring network comprising 33 juniper sites from the northern Pamir-Alay and Tien Shan mountain ranges in eastern Uzbekistan and across Kyrgyzstan for the common period 1935-2011. Junipers growing at lower elevations are sensitive to summer drought, which has increased in intensity during the studied period. At higher elevations, juniper growth, previously favored by warm summer temperatures, has in the recent few decades become negatively affected by increasing summer aridity. Moreover, response shifts are observed during all seasons. Rising temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns during the past eight decades can account for the observed increase in drought stress of junipers at all altitudes. The implications of our findings are vital for the application of adequate long-term measures of ecosystem conservation, but also for paleo-climatic approaches and coupled climate-vegetation model simulations for Central Asia.

The effect of long-term wastewater irrigation on accumulation and transfer of heavy metals in Cupressus sempervirens leaves and adjacent soils.

Wastewater reuse for agriculture is an important management strategy in areas with limited freshwater resources, yielding potential economic and environmental benefits. Here the effects of long-term irrigation with wastewater on the nutrient contents of green and senesced leaves of Cupressus sempervirens L. were assessed for three planted forests in Egypt. Stoichiometric ratios, transfer factors for nutrients from soil to plant and enrichment factors in contaminated soils were estimated and compared to a ground water irrigated control site. Under wastewater irrigation, C. sempervirens transferred most of the estimated nutrients, particularly heavy metals, from green to senesced leaves. This could be a self-protecting mechanism under continuous wastewater irrigation. The accumulation of four metals (Zn, Mn, Cu and Cd) with transfer factors>1 for wastewater-irrigated trees, indicated the ability for metal accumulation of C. sempervirens. Stoichiometric ratios decreased under wastewater irrigation compared to the control site and global trends, which suggests nutrient disorders in these plants. The values of enrichment factors in the wastewater-irrigated soils showed remarkable availability and distribution of metals. Decreased resorption of metals by senesced leaves of C. sempervirens will add considerable amount of these metals to the soils, which will likely have adverse affects on the desert ecosystem components.

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era.

Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other "Old World" climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the "Old World Drought Atlas" (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.