Trait-based sensitivity of large mammals to a catastrophic tropical cyclone.

Extreme weather events perturb ecosystems and increasingly threaten biodiversity1. Ecologists emphasize the need to forecast and mitigate the impacts of these events, which requires knowledge of how risk is distributed among species and environments. However, the scale and unpredictability of extreme events complicate risk assessment1-4-especially for large animals (megafauna), which are ecologically important and disproportionately threatened but are wide-ranging and difficult to monitor5. Traits such as body size, dispersal ability and habitat affiliation are hypothesized to determine the vulnerability of animals to natural hazards1,6,7. Yet it has rarely been possible to test these hypotheses or, more generally, to link the short-term and long-term ecological effects of weather-related disturbance8,9. Here we show how large herbivores and carnivores in Mozambique responded to Intense Tropical Cyclone Idai, the deadliest storm on record in Africa, across scales ranging from individual decisions in the hours after landfall to changes in community composition nearly 2 years later. Animals responded behaviourally to rising floodwaters by moving upslope and shifting their diets. Body size and habitat association independently predicted population-level impacts: five of the smallest and most lowland-affiliated herbivore species declined by an average of 28% in the 20 months after landfall, while four of the largest and most upland-affiliated species increased by an average of 26%. We attribute the sensitivity of small-bodied species to their limited mobility and physiological constraints, which restricted their ability to avoid the flood and endure subsequent reductions in the quantity and quality of food. Our results identify general traits that govern animal responses to severe weather, which may help to inform wildlife conservation in a volatile climate.

The generality of cryptic dietary niche differences in diverse large-herbivore assemblages.

Ecological niche differences are necessary for stable species coexistence but are often difficult to discern. Models of dietary niche differentiation in large mammalian herbivores invoke the quality, quantity, and spatiotemporal distribution of plant tissues and growth forms but are agnostic toward food plant species identity. Empirical support for these models is variable, suggesting that additional mechanisms of resource partitioning may be important in sustaining large-herbivore diversity in African savannas. We used DNA metabarcoding to conduct a taxonomically explicit analysis of large-herbivore diets across southeastern Africa, analyzing ∼4,000 fecal samples of 30 species from 10 sites in seven countries over 6 y. We detected 893 food plant taxa from 124 families, but just two families-grasses and legumes-accounted for the majority of herbivore diets. Nonetheless, herbivore species almost invariably partitioned food plant taxa; diet composition differed significantly in 97% of pairwise comparisons between sympatric species, and dissimilarity was pronounced even between the strictest grazers (grass eaters), strictest browsers (nongrass eaters), and closest relatives at each site. Niche differentiation was weakest in an ecosystem recovering from catastrophic defaunation, indicating that food plant partitioning is driven by species interactions, and was stronger at low rainfall, as expected if interspecific competition is a predominant driver. Diets differed more between browsers than grazers, which predictably shaped community organization: Grazer-dominated trophic networks had higher nestedness and lower modularity. That dietary differentiation is structured along taxonomic lines complements prior work on how herbivores partition plant parts and patches and suggests that common mechanisms govern herbivore coexistence and community assembly in savannas.

Behavioural responses of a large, heat-sensitive mammal to climatic variation at multiple spatial scales.

Climate warming creates energetic challenges for endothermic species by increasing metabolic and hydric costs of thermoregulation. Although endotherms can invoke an array of behavioural and physiological strategies for maintaining homeostasis, the relative effectiveness of those strategies in a climate that is becoming both warmer and drier is not well understood. In accordance with the heat dissipation limit theory which suggests that allocation of energy to growth and reproduction by endotherms is constrained by the ability to dissipate heat, we expected that patterns of habitat use by large, heat-sensitive mammals across multiple scales are critical for behavioural thermoregulation during periods of potential heat stress and that they must invest a large portion of time to maintain heat balance. To test our predictions, we evaluated mechanisms underpinning the effectiveness of bed sites for ameliorating daytime heat loads and potential heat stress across the landscape while accounting for other factors known to affect behaviour. We integrated detailed data on microclimate and animal attributes of moose Alces alces, into a biophysical model to quantify costs of thermoregulation at fine and coarse spatial scales. During summer, moose spent an average of 67.8% of daylight hours bedded, and selected bed sites and home ranges that reduced risk of experiencing heat stress. For most of the day, shade could effectively mitigate the risk of experiencing heat stress up to 10°C, but at warmer temperatures (up to 20°C) wet soil was necessary to maintain homeostasis via conductive heat loss. Consistent selection across spatial scales for locations that reduced heat load underscores the importance of the thermal environment as a driver of behaviour in this heat-sensitive mammal. Moose in North America have long been characterized as riparian-obligate species because of their dependence on woody plant species for food. Nevertheless, the importance of dissipating endogenous heat loads conductively through wet soil suggests riparian habitats also are critical thermal refuges for moose. Such refuges may be especially important in the face of a warming climate in which both high environmental temperatures and drier conditions will likely exacerbate limits to heat dissipation, especially for large, heat-sensitive animals.

A theoretical foundation for multi-scale regular vegetation patterns.

Self-organized regular vegetation patterns are widespread and thought to mediate ecosystem functions such as productivity and robustness, but the mechanisms underlying their origin and maintenance remain disputed. Particularly controversial are landscapes of overdispersed (evenly spaced) elements, such as North American Mima mounds, Brazilian murundus, South African heuweltjies, and, famously, Namibian fairy circles. Two competing hypotheses are currently debated. On the one hand, models of scale-dependent feedbacks, whereby plants facilitate neighbours while competing with distant individuals, can reproduce various regular patterns identified in satellite imagery. Owing to deep theoretical roots and apparent generality, scale-dependent feedbacks are widely viewed as a unifying and near-universal principle of regular-pattern formation despite scant empirical evidence. On the other hand, many overdispersed vegetation patterns worldwide have been attributed to subterranean ecosystem engineers such as termites, ants, and rodents. Although potentially consistent with territorial competition, this interpretation has been challenged theoretically and empirically and (unlike scale-dependent feedbacks) lacks a unifying dynamical theory, fuelling scepticism about its plausibility and generality. Here we provide a general theoretical foundation for self-organization of social-insect colonies, validated using data from four continents, which demonstrates that intraspecific competition between territorial animals can generate the large-scale hexagonal regularity of these patterns. However, this mechanism is not mutually exclusive with scale-dependent feedbacks. Using Namib Desert fairy circles as a case study, we present field data showing that these landscapes exhibit multi-scale patterning-previously undocumented in this system-that cannot be explained by either mechanism in isolation. These multi-scale patterns and other emergent properties, such as enhanced resistance to and recovery from drought, instead arise from dynamic interactions in our theoretical framework, which couples both mechanisms. The potentially global extent of animal-induced regularity in vegetation-which can modulate other patterning processes in functionally important ways-emphasizes the need to integrate multiple mechanisms of ecological self-organization.

Determinants of elephant foraging behaviour in a coupled human-natural system: Is brown the new green?

Crop raiding by wildlife poses major threats to both wildlife conservation and human well-being in agroecosystems worldwide. These threats are particularly acute in many parts of Africa, where crop raiders include globally threatened megafauna such as elephants, and where smallholder agriculture is a primary source of human livelihood. One framework for understanding herbivore feeding behaviour, the forage-maturation hypothesis, predicts that herbivores should align their movements with intermediate forage biomass (i.e., peak green-up); this phenomenon is known as "surfing the green wave." Crop-raiding elephants, however, often consume not just foliage, but also fruits and tubers (e.g., maize and potatoes), which generally mature after seasonal peaks in photosynthetic activity. Thus, although elephants have been reported to surf the green wave in natural habitats, they may utilize a different strategy in cultivated landscapes by selecting crops that are "browning down." We sought to understand the factors that underpin movement of elephants into agricultural landscapes. In Mozambique's Gorongosa National Park, we used movement data from GPS-collared elephants, together with precipitation records, remotely sensed estimates of landscape greenness (NDVI), DNA-based diet analysis, measurements of plant nutritional quality and survey-based metrics of crop availability to understand spatiotemporal variation in elephant crop-raiding behaviour. Elephants tracked peak NDVI while foraging inside the Park. During the dry season, however, when NDVI within the Park declined and availability of mature crops was high, crop raiding increased dramatically, and elephants consistently selected crop plants that were browning down while foraging in cultivated landscapes. Crops contained significantly higher digestible energy than wild food plants, but comparable (and sometimes lower) levels of digestible protein, suggesting that this foraging strategy maximized energy rather than protein intake. Our study is the first to combine GPS tracking data with high-resolution diet analysis and community-based reporting of crop availability to reveal fine-scale plasticity in foraging behaviour of elephants at the human-wildlife interface. Our results extend the forage-maturation hypothesis by showing that elephants surf waves of plant brown-down in cultivated landscapes. These findings can aid efforts to reduce human-elephant conflict by enabling wildlife managers to prioritize mitigation actions in time and space with limited resources.

Fire history influences large-herbivore behavior at circadian, seasonal, and successional scales.

Recurrent environmental changes often prompt animals to alter their behavior leading to predictable patterns across a range of temporal scales. The nested nature of circadian and seasonal behavior complicates tests for effects of rarer disturbance events like fire. Fire can dramatically alter plant community structure, with important knock-on effects at higher trophic levels, but the strength and timing of fire's effects on herbivores remain unclear. We combined prescribed fire treatments with fine-scale location data to quantify herbivore responses to fire across three temporal scales. Between 2001 and 2003, 26 stands of fir (Abies spp.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) were thinned and burned; 27 similar stands were left untreated as experimental controls. Analyzing female elk (Cervus canadensis) locations across 21 yr (1996-2016), we found crepuscular, seasonal, and successional shifts in behavioral responses to fire. Elk displayed "commuting" behavior, avoiding burns during the day, but selecting them at night. Elk selection for burns was strongest in early summer and the relative probability of elk using burns peaked quickly (5 yr post burn) before gradually returning to pre-treatment levels (15 yr post burn). Our results demonstrate that fire history has complex, persistent effects on herbivore behavior, and suggest that herbivores benefit from heterogeneous landscapes containing a range of successional stages.

Climatic variation modulates the indirect effects of large herbivores on small-mammal habitat use.

Large mammalian herbivores (LMH) strongly shape the composition and architecture of plant communities. A growing literature shows that negative direct effects of LMH on vegetation frequently propagate to suppress the abundance of smaller consumers. Indirect effects of LMH on the behaviour of these consumers, however, have received comparatively little attention despite their potential ecological significance. We sought to understand (i) how LMH indirectly shape small-mammal habitat use by altering the density and distribution of understorey plants; (ii) how these effects vary with climatic context (here, seasonality in rainfall); and (iii) the extent to which behavioural responses of small mammals are contingent upon small-mammal density. We tested the effects of a diverse LMH community on small-mammal habitat use using 4 years of spatially explicit small-mammal trapping and vegetation data from the UHURU Experiment, a replicated set of LMH exclosures in semi-arid Kenyan savanna. Small-mammal habitat use was positively associated with tree density and negatively associated with bare (unvegetated) patches in all plots and seasons. In the presence of LMH, and especially during the dry season, small mammals consistently selected tree cover and avoided bare patches. In contrast, when LMH were excluded, small mammals were weakly associated with tree cover and did not avoid bare patches as strongly. These behavioural responses of small mammals were largely unaffected by changes in small-mammal density associated with LMH exclusion. Our results show that LMH indirectly affect small-mammal behaviour, and that these effects are influenced by climate and can arise via density-independent mechanisms. This raises the possibility that anthropogenic LMH declines might interact with changing patterns of rainfall to alter small-mammal distribution and behaviour, independent of numerical responses by small mammals to these perturbations. For example, increased rainfall in East Africa (as predicted in many recent climate-model simulations) may relax constraints on small-mammal distribution where LMH are rare or absent, whereas increased aridity and/or drought frequency may tighten them.

Linking habitat selection to fitness-related traits in herbivores: the role of the energy landscape.

Animals may partially overcome environmental constraints on fitness by behaviorally adjusting their exposure to costs and supplies of energy. Few studies, however, have linked spatiotemporal variation in the energy landscape to behaviorally mediated measures of performance that ostensibly influence individual fitness. We hypothesized that strength of selection by North American elk (Cervus elaphus) for areas that reduced costs of thermoregulation and activity, and increased access to high-quality forage, would influence four energetically mediated traits related to fitness: birth mass of young, nutritional condition of adult females at the onset of winter, change in nutritional condition of females between spring and winter, and neonatal survival. We used a biophysical model to map spatiotemporally explicit costs of thermoregulation and activity experienced by elk in a heterogeneous landscape. We then combined model predictions with data on forage characteristics, animal locations, nutritional condition, and mass and survival of young to evaluate behaviorally mediated effects of the energy landscape on fitness-related traits. During spring, when high-quality forage was abundant, female elk that consistently selected low-cost areas before parturition gave birth to larger young than less-selective individuals, and birth mass had a strong, positive influence on probability of survival. As forage quality declined during autumn, however, lactating females that consistently selected the highest quality forage available accrued more fat and entered winter in better condition than less-selective individuals. Results of our study highlight the importance of understanding the dynamic nature of energy landscapes experienced by free-ranging animals.

Identifying impediments to long-distance mammal migrations.

In much of the world, the persistence of long-distance migrations by mammals is threatened by development. Even where human population density is relatively low, there are roads, fencing, and energy development that present barriers to animal movement. If we are to conserve species that rely on long-distance migration, then it is critical that we identify existing migration impediments. To delineate stopover sites associated with anthropogenic development, we applied Brownian bridge movement models to high-frequency locations of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We then used resource utilization functions to assess the threats to long-distance migration of pronghorn that were due to fences and highways. Migrating pronghorn avoided dense developments of natural gas fields. Highways with relatively high volumes of traffic and woven-wire sheep fence acted as complete barriers. At crossings with known migration bottlenecks, use of high-quality forage and shrub habitat by pronghorn as they approached the highway was lower than expected based on availability of those resources. In contrast, pronghorn consistently utilized high-quality forage close to the highway at crossings with no known migration bottlenecks. Our findings demonstrate the importance of minimizing development in migration corridors in the future and of mitigating existing pressure on migratory animals by removing barriers, reducing the development footprint, or installing crossing structures.

Mechanisms of individual variation in large herbivore diets: Roles of spatial heterogeneity and state-dependent foraging.

Many populations of consumers consist of relatively specialized individuals that eat only a subset of the foods consumed by the population at large. Although the ecological significance of individual-level diet variation is recognized, such variation is difficult to document, and its underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Optimal foraging theory provides a useful framework for predicting how individuals might select different diets, positing that animals balance the "opportunity cost" of stopping to eat an available food item against the cost of searching for something more nutritious; diet composition should be contingent on the distribution of food, and individual foragers should be more selective when they have greater energy reserves to invest in searching for high-quality foods. We tested these predicted mechanisms of individual niche differentiation by quantifying environmental (resource heterogeneity) and organismal (nutritional condition) determinants of diet in a widespread browsing antelope (bushbuck, Tragelaphus sylvaticus) in an African floodplain-savanna ecosystem. We quantified individuals' realized dietary niches (taxonomic richness and composition) using DNA metabarcoding of fecal samples collected repeatedly from 15 GPS-collared animals (range 6-14 samples per individual, median 12). Bushbuck diets were structured by spatial heterogeneity and constrained by individual condition. We observed significant individual-level partitioning of food plants by bushbuck both within and between two adjacent habitat types (floodplain and woodland). Individuals with home ranges that were closer together and/or had similar vegetation structure (measured using LiDAR) ate more similar diets, supporting the prediction that heterogeneous resource distribution promotes individual differentiation. Individuals in good nutritional condition had significantly narrower diets (fewer plant taxa), searched their home ranges more intensively (intensity-of-use index), and had higher-quality diets (percent digestible protein) than those in poor condition, supporting the prediction that animals with greater endogenous reserves have narrower realized niches because they can invest more time in searching for nutritious foods. Our results support predictions from optimal foraging theory about the energetic basis of individual-level dietary variation and provide a potentially generalizable framework for understanding how individuals' realized niche width is governed by animal behavior and physiology in heterogeneous landscapes.

Impacts of large herbivores on terrestrial ecosystems.

Large herbivores play unique ecological roles and are disproportionately imperiled by human activity. As many wild populations dwindle towards extinction, and as interest grows in restoring lost biodiversity, research on large herbivores and their ecological impacts has intensified. Yet, results are often conflicting or contingent on local conditions, and new findings have challenged conventional wisdom, making it hard to discern general principles. Here, we review what is known about the ecosystem impacts of large herbivores globally, identify key uncertainties, and suggest priorities to guide research. Many findings are generalizable across ecosystems: large herbivores consistently exert top-down control of plant demography, species composition, and biomass, thereby suppressing fires and the abundance of smaller animals. Other general patterns do not have clearly defined impacts: large herbivores respond to predation risk but the strength of trophic cascades is variable; large herbivores move vast quantities of seeds and nutrients but with poorly understood effects on vegetation and biogeochemistry. Questions of the greatest relevance for conservation and management are among the least certain, including effects on carbon storage and other ecosystem functions and the ability to predict outcomes of extinctions and reintroductions. A unifying theme is the role of body size in regulating ecological impact. Small herbivores cannot fully substitute for large ones, and large-herbivore species are not functionally redundant - losing any, especially the largest, will alter net impact, helping to explain why livestock are poor surrogates for wild species. We advocate leveraging a broad spectrum of techniques to mechanistically explain how large-herbivore traits and environmental context interactively govern the ecological impacts of these animals.

Ivory poaching and the rapid evolution of tusklessness in African elephants.

Understanding the evolutionary consequences of wildlife exploitation is increasingly important as harvesting becomes more efficient. We examined the impacts of ivory poaching during the Mozambican Civil War (1977 to 1992) on the evolution of African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Gorongosa National Park. Poaching resulted in strong selection that favored tusklessness amid a rapid population decline. Survey data revealed tusk-inheritance patterns consistent with an X chromosome­linked dominant, male-lethal trait. Whole-genome scans implicated two candidate genes with known roles in mammalian tooth development (AMELX and MEP1a), including the formation of enamel, dentin, cementum, and the periodontium. One of these loci (AMELX) is associated with an X-linked dominant, male-lethal syndrome in humans that diminishes the growth of maxillary lateral incisors (homologous to elephant tusks). This study provides evidence for rapid, poaching-mediated selection for the loss of a prominent anatomical trait in a keystone species.

Physiological costs of undocumented human migration across the southern United States border.

Political, economic, and climatic upheaval can result in mass human migration across extreme terrain in search of more humane living conditions, exposing migrants to environments that challenge human tolerance. An empirical understanding of the biological stresses associated with these migrations will play a key role in the development of social, political, and medical strategies for alleviating adverse effects and risk of death. We model physiological stress associated with undocumented migration across a commonly traversed section of the southern border of the United States and find that locations of migrant death are disproportionately clustered within regions of greatest predicted physiological stress (evaporative water loss). Minimum values of estimated evaporative water loss were sufficient to cause severe dehydration and associated proximate causes of mortality. Integration of future climate predictions into models increased predicted physiological costs of migration by up to 34.1% over the next 30 years.

Cascading impacts of large-carnivore extirpation in an African ecosystem.

Populations of the world's largest carnivores are declining and now occupy mere fractions of their historical ranges. Theory predicts that when apex predators disappear, large herbivores become less fearful, occupy new habitats, and modify those habitats by eating new food plants. Yet experimental support for this prediction has been difficult to obtain in large-mammal systems. After the extirpation of leopards and African wild dogs from Mozambique's Gorongosa National Park, forest-dwelling antelopes [bushbuck (Tragelaphus sylvaticus)] expanded into treeless floodplains, where they consumed novel diets and suppressed a common food plant [waterwort (Bergia mossambicensis)]. By experimentally simulating predation risk, we demonstrate that this behavior was reversible. Thus, whereas anthropogenic predator extinction disrupted a trophic cascade by enabling rapid differentiation of prey behavior, carnivore restoration may just as rapidly reestablish that cascade.

Linking forest management to moose population trends: The role of the nutritional landscape.

Forested lands in the western USA have undergone changes in management and condition that are resulting in a shift towards climax vegetation. These changes can influence the quality and quantity of forage for herbivores that rely on early-seral plants. To evaluate how management of forested landscapes might affect nutrition for Shiras moose (A. a. shirasi) at large spatial scales, we focused on shrubs and evaluated summer diet composition, forage availability, and forage quality across 21 population management units encompassing >36,000 km2 in northern Idaho, USA. We identified 17 shrub species in the diets of moose, 11 of which comprised the bulk of the diets. These forage shrubs varied markedly in both energy (mean digestible energy for leaves ranged from 9.62 to 12.89 kJ/g) and protein (mean digestible protein for leaves ranged from 1.73 to 7.90%). By adapting established field sampling methods and integrating recent advances in remote sensing analyses in a modeling framework, we predicted approximations of current and past (i.e., 1984) quantities of forage shrubs across northern Idaho. We also created a qualitative index of population trend for moose across population management units using harvest data. Predicted quantities of forage shrubs varied widely across the study area with generally higher values at more northern latitudes. The quantity of forage shrubs was estimated to have declined over the past 30 years in about half of the population management units, with the greatest declines predicted for high-energy forage species. The population trend index was correlated with the percent change in availability of moderate-energy forage shrubs, indicating that availability of forage shrubs and change in availability over time might be affecting population dynamics for moose in northern Idaho. Our study highlights the importance of assessing how changes in forest management across broad spatiotemporal extents could affect wildlife and their habitats.

Hunting and mountain sheep: Do current harvest practices affect horn growth?

The influence of human harvest on evolution of secondary sexual characteristics has implications for sustainable management of wildlife populations. The phenotypic consequences of selectively removing males with large horns or antlers from ungulate populations have been a topic of heightened concern in recent years. Harvest can affect size of horn-like structures in two ways: (a) shifting age structure toward younger age classes, which can reduce the mean size of horn-like structures, or (b) selecting against genes that produce large, fast-growing males. We evaluated effects of age, climatic and forage conditions, and metrics of harvest on horn size and growth of mountain sheep (Ovis canadensis ssp.) in 72 hunt areas across North America from 1981 to 2016. In 50% of hunt areas, changes in mean horn size during the study period were related to changes in age structure of harvested sheep. Environmental conditions explained directional changes in horn growth in 28% of hunt areas, 7% of which did not exhibit change before accounting for effects of the environment. After accounting for age and environment, horn size of mountain sheep was stable or increasing in the majority (~78%) of hunt areas. Age-specific horn size declined in 44% of hunt areas where harvest was regulated solely by morphological criteria, which supports the notion that harvest practices that are simultaneously selective and intensive might lead to changes in horn growth. Nevertheless, phenotypic consequences are not a foregone conclusion in the face of selective harvest; over half of the hunt areas with highly selective and intensive harvest did not exhibit age-specific declines in horn size. Our results demonstrate that while harvest regimes are an important consideration, horn growth of harvested male mountain sheep has remained largely stable, indicating that changes in horn growth patterns are an unlikely consequence of harvest across most of North America.