Re-expressing coefficients from regression models for inclusion in a meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis poses a challenge when original study results have been expressed in a non-uniform manner, such as when regression results from some original studies were based on a log-transformed key independent variable while in others no transformation was used. Methods of re-expressing regression coefficients to generate comparable results across studies regardless of data transformation have recently been developed. We examined the relative bias of three re-expression methods using simulations and 15 real data examples where the independent variable had a skewed distribution. Regression coefficients from models with log-transformed independent variables were re-expressed as though they were based on an untransformed variable. We compared the re-expressed coefficients to those from a model fit to the untransformed variable. In the simulated and real data, all three re-expression methods usually gave biased results, and the skewness of the independent variable predicted the amount of bias. How best to synthesize the results of the log-transformed and absolute exposure evidence streams remains an open question and may depend on the scientific discipline, scale of the outcome, and other considerations.

Gestational thyroid hormone concentrations and risk of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal thyroid function plays an important role in foetal brain development; however, little consensus exists regarding the relationship between normal variability in thyroid hormones and common neurodevelopmental disorders, such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the association between mid-pregnancy maternal thyroid function and risk of clinically diagnosed ADHD in offspring. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study. Among children born 2003 or later, we randomly sampled singleton ADHD cases obtained through linkage with the Norwegian Patient Registry (n = 298) and 554 controls. Concentrations of maternal triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), T3-Uptake, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPO-Ab) were measured in maternal plasma, collected at approximately 17 weeks' gestation. Indices of free T4 (FT4i) and free T3 (FT3i) were calculated. We used multivariable adjusted logistic regression to calculate odds ratios and accounted for missing covariate data using multiple imputation. We used restricted cubic splines to assess non-linear trends and provide flexible representations. We examined effect measure modification by dietary iodine and selenium intake. In sensitivity analyses, we excluded women with clinically significant thyroid disorders (n = 73). RESULTS: High maternal T3 was associated with increased risk of ADHD (5th vs 1st quintile odds ratio  2.27, 95% confidence interval 1.21, 4.26). For FT4i, both the lowest and highest quintiles were associated with an approximate 1.6-fold increase in risk of ADHD, with similar trends found for T4. The FT4i association was modified by dietary iodine intake such that the highest risk strata were confined to the low intake group. CONCLUSIONS: Both high and low concentrations of maternal thyroid hormones, although within population reference ranges, increase the risk of ADHD in offspring. Increased susceptibility may be found among women with low dietary intake of iodine and selenium.

Is the cholesterol-perfluoroalkyl substance association confounded by dietary fiber intake?: a Bayesian analysis of NHANES data with adjustment for measurement error in fiber intake.

BACKGROUND: Serum concentrations of total cholesterol and related lipid measures have been associated with serum concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in humans, even among those with only background-level exposure to PFAS. Fiber is known to decrease serum cholesterol and a recent report based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) showed that PFAS and fiber are inversely associated. We hypothesized that confounding by dietary fiber may account for some of the association between cholesterol and PFAS. METHODS: We implemented a Bayesian correction for measurement error in estimated intake of dietary fiber to evaluate whether fiber confounds the cholesterol-PFAS association. The NHANES measure of diet, two 24-h recalls, allowed calculation of an estimate of the "true" long-term fiber intake for each subject. We fit models to the NHANES data on serum cholesterol and serum concentration of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and two other PFAS for 7,242 participants in NHANES. RESULTS: The Bayesian model, after adjustment for soluble fiber intake, suggested a decrease in the size of the coefficient for PFOA by 6.4% compared with the fiber-unadjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated that the association of serum cholesterol with PFAS was not substantially confounded by fiber intake.

Using quantitative modeling tools to assess pharmacokinetic bias in epidemiological studies showing associations between biomarkers and health outcomes at low exposures.

Biomarkers of exposure can be measured at lower and lower levels due to advances in analytical chemistry. Using these sensitive methods, some epidemiology studies report associations between biomarkers and health outcomes at biomarker levels much below those associated with effects in animal studies. While some of these low exposure associations may arise from increased sensitivity of humans compared with animals or from species-specific responses, toxicology studies with drugs, commodity chemicals and consumer products have not generally indicated significantly greater sensitivity of humans compared with test animals for most health outcomes. In some cases, these associations may be indicative of pharmacokinetic (PK) bias, i.e., a situation where a confounding factor or the health outcome itself alters pharmacokinetic processes affecting biomarker levels. Quantitative assessment of PK bias combines PK modeling and statistical methods describing outcomes across large numbers of individuals in simulated populations. Here, we first provide background on the types of PK models that can be used for assessing biomarker levels in human population and then outline a process for considering PK bias in studies intended to assess associations between biomarkers and health outcomes at low levels of exposure. After providing this background, we work through published examples where these PK methods have been applied with several chemicals/chemical classes - polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDE) and phthalates - to assess the possibility of PK bias. Studies of the health effects of low levels of exposure will be improved by developing some confidence that PK bias did not play significant roles in the observed associations.

Neonatal thyroid-stimulating hormone and association with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

BACKGROUND: Normal brain development is dependent on maternal, fetal and neonatal thyroid function. Measuring neonatal thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) 48-72 hours after birth screens for congenital hypothyroidism, allowing early treatment to avoid serious impairment. However, even within sub-clinical ranges, disrupted thyroid homeostasis during brain development has been linked to adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes, including attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). OBJECTIVES: To estimate the association between neonatal TSH below threshold for potential congenital hypothyroidism and subsequent ADHD diagnosis using a population-based birth cohort. METHODS: Children with a diagnosis of ADHD in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) were identified through linkage with the Norwegian Patient Registry using ICD-10 codes for hyperkinetic disorders. The study included 405 ADHD cases and 1,092 controls (born 2003-2008) with available neonatal TSH concentrations below 10 mU/L (cut-off for potential congenital hypothyroidism) measured in dried blood spots sampled 48-72 hours after birth. RESULTS: In multivariable, quintile models the relationship appeared to follow a U-shaped pattern with elevated odds ratios (OR) at lower and higher TSH levels. Among children with TSH in the lowest quintile, odds of ADHD was approximately 1.5-fold higher than children in the middle quintile (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.09, 2.34), which was driven by substantially elevated risk among girls, with no association among boys (Pinteraction = 0.02; girls OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.53, 6.30; boys OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.73, 1.84). CONCLUSIONS: ADHD risk appeared to be elevated among newborns with low TSH levels (i.e. with hyperthyroid status), and this association was mainly found among girls. Because our findings are suggestive of increased risk at very low TSH concentrations, where analytical accuracy is low, future studies should employ highly sensitive assays capable of accurate quantitation at very low concentrations. Also, larger studies are needed to investigate these associations at higher neonatal TSH concentrations where data are more widely distributed.

Prenatal exposure to organophosphate pesticides and brain morphology and white matter microstructure in preadolescents.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to organophosphate (OP) pesticides associate with impaired neurodevelopment in humans and animal models. However, much uncertainty exists about the brain structural alterations underlying these associations. The objective of this study was to determine whether maternal OP pesticide metabolite concentrations in urine repeatedly measured during gestation are associated with brain morphology and white matter microstructure in 518 preadolescents aged 9-12 years. METHOD: Data came from 518 mother-child pairs participating in the Generation R Study, a population-based birth cohort from Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Maternal urine concentrations were determined for 6 dialkylphosphates (DAPs) including 3 dimethyl (DM) and 3 diethyl (DE) alkyl phosphate metabolites, collected at early, mid, and late pregnancy. At child's age 9-12 years, magnetic resonance imaging was performed to obtain T1-weighted images for brain volumes and surface-based cortical thickness and cortical surface area, and diffusion tensor imaging was used to measure white matter microstructure through fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD). Linear regression models were fit for the averaged prenatal exposure across pregnancy. RESULTS: DM and DE metabolite concentrations were not associated with brain volumes, cortical thickness, and cortical surface area. However, a 10-fold increase in averaged DM metabolite concentrations across pregnancy was associated with lower FA (B = -1.00, 95%CI = -1.80, -0.20) and higher MD (B = 0.13, 95%CI = 0.04, 0.21). Similar associations were observed for DE concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first evidence that OP pesticides may alter normal white matter microstructure in children, which could have consequences for normal neurodevelopment. No associations were observed with structural brain morphology, including brain volumes, cortical thickness, and cortical surface area.

Quantitative bias analysis of the association between subclinical thyroid disease and two perfluoroalkyl substances in a single study.

Exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) has been associated with the occurrence of thyroid disease in some epidemiologic studies. We hypothesized that in a specific epidemiologic study based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the association of subclinical thyroid disease with serum concentration of PFOA and PFOS was due to reverse causality. Thyroid hormone affects glomerular filtration, which in turn affects excretion of PFOA and PFOS. We evaluated this by linking a model of thyroid disease status over the lifetime to physiologically based pharmacokinetic models of PFOA and PFOS. Using Monte Carlo methods, we simulated the target study population and analyzed the data using multivariable logistic regression. The target and simulated populations were similar with respect to age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum concentrations of PFOA and PFOS, and prevalence of subclinical thyroid disease. Our findings suggest that in the target study the associations with subclinical hypothyroidism were overstated and the results for subclinical hyperthyroidism were, in general, understated. For example, for subclinical hypothyroidism in men, the reported odds ratio per ln(PFOS) increase was 1.98 (95% CI 1.19-3.28), whereas in the simulated data the bias due to reverse causality gave an odds ratio of 1.19 (1.16-1.23). Our results provide evidence of bias due to reverse causality in a specific cross-sectional study of subclinical thyroid disease with exposure to PFOA and PFOS among adults.

Development of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) in pregnant rat and human.

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for di-isononyl phthalate (DiNP) was developed by adapting the existing models for di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and di-butylphthalate (DBP). Both pregnant rat and human time-course plasma and urine data were used to address the hydrolysis of DiNP in intestinal tract, plasma, and liver as well as hepatic oxidative metabolism and conjugation of the monoester and primary oxidative metabolites. Data in both rats and humans were available to inform the uptake and disposition of mono-isononyl phthalate (MiNP) as well as the three primary oxidative metabolites including hydroxy (7-OH)-, oxo (7-OXO)-, and carboxy (7-COX)-monoisononyl phthalate in plasma and urine. The DiNP model was reliable over a wide range of exposure levels in the pregnant rat as well as the two low exposure levels in humans including capturing the nonlinear behavior in the pregnant rat after repeated 750 mg/kg/day dosing. The presented DiNP PBPK model in pregnant rat and human, based upon an extensive kinetic dataset in both species, may provide a basis for assessing human equivalent exposures based upon either rodent or in vitro points of departure.

Maternal Thyroid Function During Pregnancy or Neonatal Thyroid Function and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is the most common neurobehavioral disorder in children, yet its etiology is poorly understood. Early thyroid hormone disruption may contribute to the development of ADHD. Disrupted maternal thyroid hormone function has been associated with adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes in children. Among newborns, early-treated congenital hypothyroidism has been consistently associated with later cognitive deficits. METHODS: We systematically reviewed literature on the association between maternal or neonatal thyroid hormones and ADHD diagnosis or symptoms. We searched Embase, Pubmed, Cinahl, PsycInfo, ERIC, Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science for articles published or available ahead of print as of April 2018. RESULTS: We identified 28 eligible articles: 16 studies of maternal thyroid hormones, seven studies of early-treated congenital hypothyroidism, and five studies of neonatal thyroid hormones. The studies provide moderate evidence for an association between maternal thyroid hormone levels and offspring ADHD, some evidence for an association between early-treated congenital hypothyroidism and ADHD, and little evidence for an association between neonatal thyroid hormone levels and later ADHD. CONCLUSIONS: The reviewed articles suggest an association between maternal thyroid function and ADHD, and possibly between early-treated congenital hypothyroidism and ADHD. Study limitations, however, weaken the conclusions in our systematic review, underlining the need for more research. Importantly, there was much variation in the measurement of thyroid hormone function and of ADHD symptoms. Recommendations for future research include using population-based designs, attending to measurement issues for thyroid hormones and ADHD, considering biologically relevant covariates (e.g., iodine intake), and assessing nonlinear dose-responses.

Placental Weight and Risk of Cryptorchidism and Hypospadias in the Collaborative Perinatal Project.

Cryptorchidism and hypospadias are the most common congenital anomalies of the genitourinary tract in males, but their etiology remains unclear. Placental insufficiency has been suggested to be linked to both conditions. Placental weight is a commonly used proxy measure for placental insufficiency; thus, we examined placental weight and other placental characteristics in relation to cryptorchidism and hypospadias in the Collaborative Perinatal Project, a US mother-child cohort study. Pregnant women were recruited between 1959 and 1965. The analysis contrasted boys with cryptorchidism (n = 413) and boys with hypospadias (n = 145) with boys without cryptorchidism (n = 23,799) and boys without hypospadias (n = 22,326). Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. In categorical analyses in which the middle tertile was the referent, cryptorchidism was inversely associated with placental weight (odds ratio = 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.46, 0.95) among white boys and positively associated with the lowest tertile of placental weight among black boys (odds ratio = 1.70, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 2.59). We conclude that lower placental weight may be related to risk of cryptorchidism. Further investigation of placental functioning may offer insights into the etiology of cryptorchidism.

Secondary outcome analysis for data from an outcome-dependent sampling design.

Outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) scheme is a cost-effective way to conduct a study. For a study with continuous primary outcome, an ODS scheme can be implemented where the expensive exposure is only measured on a simple random sample and supplemental samples selected from 2 tails of the primary outcome variable. With the tremendous cost invested in collecting the primary exposure information, investigators often would like to use the available data to study the relationship between a secondary outcome and the obtained exposure variable. This is referred as secondary analysis. Secondary analysis in ODS designs can be tricky, as the ODS sample is not a random sample from the general population. In this article, we use the inverse probability weighted and augmented inverse probability weighted estimating equations to analyze the secondary outcome for data obtained from the ODS design. We do not make any parametric assumptions on the primary and secondary outcome and only specify the form of the regression mean models, thus allow an arbitrary error distribution. Our approach is robust to second- and higher-order moment misspecification. It also leads to more precise estimates of the parameters by effectively using all the available participants. Through simulation studies, we show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Data from the Collaborative Perinatal Project are analyzed to illustrate our method.

Household fuel use and biomarkers of inflammation and respiratory illness among rural South African Women.

Though literature suggests a positive association between use of biomass fuel for cooking and inflammation, few studies among women in rural South Africa exist. We included 415 women from the South African Study of Women and Babies (SOWB), recruited from 2010 to 2011. We obtained demographics, general medical history and usual source of cooking fuel (wood, electricity) via baseline questionnaire. A nurse obtained height, weight, blood pressure, and blood samples. We measured plasma concentrations of a suite of inflammatory markers (e.g., interleukins, tumor necrosis factor-α, C-reactive protein). We assessed associations between cooking fuel and biomarkers of inflammation and respiratory symptoms/illness using crude and adjusted linear and logistic regression models. We found little evidence of an association between fuel-use and biomarkers of inflammation, pre-hypertension/hypertension, or respiratory illnesses. Though imprecise, we found 41% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.72-2.77) higher odds of self-reported wheezing/chest tightness among wood-users compared with electricity-users. Though studies among other populations report positive findings between biomass fuel use and inflammation, it is possible that women in the present study experience lower exposures to household air pollution given the cleaner burning nature of wood compared with other biomass fuels (e.g., coal, dung).

Menstrual cycle characteristics as determinants of plasma concentrations of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort (MoBa study).

INTRODUCTION: Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are fluorinated organic compounds that have been used in a variety of industrial and consumer applications. Menstruation is implicated as a possible route of elimination for PFASs in women. The overall purpose of this study was to examine menstrual cycle characteristics as determinants of plasma PFAS concentrations in women. METHODS: Our study sample consisted of 1977 pregnant women from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort (MoBa) study. The women were asked about menstrual cycle regularity in the year before the pregnancy and typical menstrual cycle length as well as other demographic and reproductive characteristics in a questionnaire completed during the pregnancy. Blood samples were collected around 17-18 weeks gestation and PFAS concentrations were measured in plasma. We examined the association between menstrual cycle characteristics and seven PFASs (perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS)) using multiple linear regression, adjusted for age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, smoking, education, income, parity, oral contraceptive use, inter-pregnancy interval, and breastfeeding duration. RESULTS: Irregular cycles were not associated with PFAS concentrations. Overall, we found no evidence of associations between menstrual cycle length and PFAS concentrations. In subgroup analyses we found some evidence, among parous women, of decreased PFHpS and PFOS with short menstrual cycles; we also found, among recent OC users (in the 12 months before the questionnaire) increased PFNA and PFUnDA with long cycle length. Limitations of our study include misclassification of menstrual cycle characteristics, small sample sizes in the sub-group analyses, and a lack of information on duration and volume of menses. CONCLUSIONS: In the entire study sample, we found little evidence of menstrual cycle characteristics as determinants of PFAS concentrations. However, we observed some associations between cycle length and PFAS concentrations with some select PFAS compounds in subgroup analyses.

Effects of Sample Handling and Analytical Procedures on Thyroid Hormone Concentrations in Pregnant Women's Plasma.

BACKGROUND: Maternal thyroid function is a critical mediator of fetal brain development. Pregnancy-related physiologic changes and handling conditions of blood samples may influence thyroid hormone biomarkers. We investigated the reliability of thyroid hormone biomarkers in plasma of pregnant women under various handling conditions. METHODS: We enrolled 17 pregnant women; collected serum and plasma were immediately frozen. Additional plasma aliquots were subjected to different handling conditions before the analysis of thyroid biomarkers: storage at room temperature for 24 or 48 hours before freezing and an extra freeze-thaw cycle. We estimated free thyroid hormone indices in plasma based on T3 uptake. RESULTS: High correlations between plasma and serum (>0.94) and intraclass correlation coefficients for plasma handling conditions (0.96 to 1.00) indicated excellent reliability for all thyroid hormone biomarkers. CONCLUSION: Delayed freezing and freeze-thaw cycles did not affect reliability of biomarkers of thyroid function in plasma during pregnancy. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B180.

Statistical inferences for data from studies conducted with an aggregated multivariate outcome-dependent sample design.

Outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) scheme is a cost-effective sampling scheme where one observes the exposure with a probability that depends on the outcome. The well-known such design is the case-control design for binary response, the case-cohort design for the failure time data, and the general ODS design for a continuous response. While substantial work has been carried out for the univariate response case, statistical inference and design for the ODS with multivariate cases remain under-developed. Motivated by the need in biological studies for taking the advantage of the available responses for subjects in a cluster, we propose a multivariate outcome-dependent sampling (multivariate-ODS) design that is based on a general selection of the continuous responses within a cluster. The proposed inference procedure for the multivariate-ODS design is semiparametric where all the underlying distributions of covariates are modeled nonparametrically using the empirical likelihood methods. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and developed the asymptotically normality properties. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the estimator obtained using only the simple-random-sample portion of the multivariate-ODS or the estimator from a simple random sample with the same sample size. The multivariate-ODS design together with the proposed estimator provides an approach to further improve study efficiency for a given fixed study budget. We illustrate the proposed design and estimator with an analysis of association of polychlorinated biphenyl exposure to hearing loss in children born to the Collaborative Perinatal Study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In utero exposure to DDT and incidence of diarrhea among boys from tropical Mexico.

BACKGROUND: A higher incidence rate (IR) of acute gastrointestinal (GI) infections associated with prenatal exposure to p,p'-DDE was suggested by the results in two studies. Given the high mortality rate due to childhood diarrhea in some countries with ongoing use of DDT, additional data on this association is relevant for those making decisions about vector-borne disease control. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether higher levels of prenatal exposure to p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT increase the risk of having diarrhea in a birth cohort of boys from tropical Mexico. METHODS: Our analysis was based on 747 boys whose exposure was measured in maternal serum collected at delivery (2002-2003). Mothers reported the number of diarrhea episodes of their children during in-person interviews. The median age of the children at their last interview was 21.4 months. Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) of diarrhea by levels of p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT. RESULTS: Overall, there were 1.7 episodes of diarrhea per child-year. Among those in the highest category of exposure (> 9µg DDE/g serum lipid), the aIRR for diarrhea was 1.14 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.30) compared to those in the lowest category of exposure (≤ 3µg/g). Among boys living in the urban area, the corresponding aIRR was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.07-1.80). Among rural boys, no associations emerged. CONCLUSION: Although the results were consistent with a small positive association, the overall estimate was not precise. While urban boys in this study appeared to be more susceptible to DDE-associated diarrhea, a ready explanation for such increased susceptibility was not apparent.

Brief Report: Plasma Concentrations of Perfluorooctane Sulfonamide and Time-to-pregnancy Among Primiparous Women.

BACKGROUND: A previous study reported a negative association between perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA) concentrations and fecundability. METHODS: We examined this association among women enrolled in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), in 2003-2004. This analysis was restricted to 451 primiparous women to avoid bias due to previous pregnancy. Self-reported time-to-pregnancy (TTP) and plasma were obtained around 18 weeks of gestation. Approximately half of the women had measurable PFOSA levels; missing values were multiply imputed. We used the logistic analogue of discrete-time survival analysis to examine the adjusted association between PFOSA, other perfluoroalkyl substances, and TTP. RESULTS: The median-measured PFOSA concentration was 0.03 ng/ml (interquartile range = 0.02, 0.07). The age and body mass index-adjusted association between an interquartile distance increase in PFOSA and TTP was 0.91 (95% confidence interval = 0.71, 1.17). Imputation of missing PFOSA resulted in similar estimates. No association was observed with other perfluoroalkyl substances. CONCLUSION: Based on a weakly decreased fecundability odds ratio, we found only limited support for an association between plasma PFOSA concentrations and TTP among primiparous women. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B79.

A Simple Pharmacokinetic Model of Prenatal and Postnatal Exposure to Perfluoroalkyl Substances (PFASs).

Most children are exposed to perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) through placental transfer, breastfeeding, and other environmental sources. To date, there are no validated tools to estimate exposure and body burden during infancy and childhood. In this study, we aimed to (i) develop a two-generation pharmacokinetic model of prenatal and postnatal exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), and perfluorohexanesulfonate (PFHxS); and to (ii) evaluate it against measured children's levels in two studies. We developed a pharmacokinetic model consisting of a maternal and a child compartment to simulate lifetime exposure in women and transfer to the child across the placenta and through breastfeeding. To evaluate the model, we performed simulations for each mother-child dyad from two studies in which maternal PFAS levels at delivery and children's PFAS levels were available. Model predictions based on maternal PFAS levels, sex of child, body weight, and duration of breastfeeding explained between 52% and 60% of the variability in measured children's levels at 6 months of age and between 52% and 62% at 36 months. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the daily intake through breastfeeding and resulting internal PFAS levels can be much higher in nursing infants than in mothers. This pharmacokinetic model shows potential for postnatal exposure assessment in the context of epidemiological studies and risk assessment.

Pharmacokinetic bias analysis of the epidemiological associations between serum polybrominated diphenyl ether (BDE-47) and timing of menarche.

BACKGROUND: Associations between serum levels of polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) and timing of pubertal development in adolescent girls (e.g., menarche) have been reported in both a cross-sectional and in a longitudinal study. The associations may be biased by growth dilution and pharmacokinetic changes during pubertal development. OBJECTIVES: To use a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to assess how much of the epidemiologic association between PBDE and altered timing of menarche might be attributable to growth dilution and pubertal maturation. METHODS: We developed a PBPK model of BDE-47, a major congener of PBDE, to perform Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of plasma BDE-47 levels in a hypothetical target population aged 2 to 22 years old. The model used realistic distributions of physiological parameters including timing of growth spurts and menarche. The simulated data were analyzed as if they had come from an epidemiologic study. We compared the results based on the simulated population to those reported. RESULTS: The population characteristics, including age and body mass index (BMI) were similar between the simulated and reported groups. In the cross-sectional study design, the association between proportion of subjects with menarche before age 12 years and BDE-47 serum concentration was inverse in our simulated population, whereas the reported association was positive. In the longitudinal study design, simulated data were not suggestive of an association, whereas a delay in pubertal onset with higher concentrations of BDE-47 was observed in the epidemiologic study. CONCLUSION: Results of our simulation suggest that in the previous cross-sectional study there was a small negative bias due to pharmacokinetics in the reported relationship between BDE-47 and age at menarche. However, in the longitudinal study there was little evidence of bias. Our study showed how PBPK modeling can be used to quantify the potential bias in epidemiological studies and also suggested that further studies on the optimal approach to modeling exposure are warranted to better understand and quantify the potential bias in the epidemiological associations with BDE-47 due to pharmacokinetics.

Estimating effect of environmental contaminants on women's subfecundity for the MoBa study data with an outcome-dependent sampling scheme.

Motivated by the need from our on-going environmental study in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort (MoBa) study, we consider an outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) scheme for failure-time data with censoring. Like the case-cohort design, the ODS design enriches the observed sample by selectively including certain failure subjects. We present an estimated maximum semiparametric empirical likelihood estimation (EMSELE) under the proportional hazards model framework. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator were derived. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the small-sample performance of our proposed method. Our analyses show that the proposed estimator and design is more efficient than the current default approach and other competing approaches. Applying the proposed approach with the data set from the MoBa study, we found a significant effect of an environmental contaminant on fecundability.