Hypertension Control During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Cohort Study Among US Veterans.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine whether disruptions in follow-up intervals contributed to hypertension control. BACKGROUND: Disruptions in health care were widespread during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We identified a cohort of individuals with hypertension in both prepandemic (March 2019-February 2020) and pandemic periods (March 2020-February 2022) in the Veterans Health Administration. First, we calculated follow-up intervals between the last prepandemic and first pandemic blood pressure measurement during a primary care clinic visit, and between measurements in the prepandemic period. Next, we estimated the association between the maintenance of (or achieving) hypertension control and the period using generalized estimating equations. We assessed associations between follow-up interval and control separately for periods. Finally, we evaluated the interaction between period and follow-up length. RESULTS: A total of 1,648,424 individuals met the study inclusion criteria. Among individuals with controlled hypertension, the likelihood of maintaining control was lower during the pandemic versus the prepandemic (relative risk: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.93). Longer follow-up intervals were associated with a decreasing likelihood of maintaining controlled hypertension in both periods. Accounting for follow-up intervals, the likelihood of maintaining control was 2% lower during the pandemic versus the prepandemic. For uncontrolled hypertension, the likelihood of gaining control was modestly higher during the pandemic versus the prepandemic (relative risk: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.01). The likelihood of gaining control decreased with follow-up length during the prepandemic but not pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: During the pandemic, longer follow-up between measurements contributed to the lower likelihood of maintaining control. Those with uncontrolled hypertension were modestly more likely to gain control in the pandemic.

Point-of-care ultrasound in geriatrics: a national survey of VA medical centers.

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) can aid geriatricians in caring for complex, older patients. Currently, there is limited literature on POCUS use by geriatricians. We conducted a national survey to assess current POCUS use, training desired, and barriers among Geriatrics and Extended Care ("geriatric") clinics at Veterans Affairs Medical Centers (VAMCs). METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational study of all VAMCs between August 2019 and March 2020 using a web-based survey sent to all VAMC Chiefs of Staff and Chiefs of geriatric clinics. RESULTS: All Chiefs of Staff (n=130) completed the survey (100% response rate). Chiefs of geriatric clinics ("chiefs") at 76 VAMCs were surveyed and 52 completed the survey (68% response rate). Geriatric clinics were located throughout the United States, mostly at high-complexity, urban VAMCs. Only 15% of chiefs responded that there was some POCUS usage in their geriatric clinic, but more than 60% of chiefs would support the implementation of POCUS use. The most common POCUS applications used in geriatric clinics were the evaluation of the bladder and urinary obstruction. Barriers to POCUS use included a lack of trained providers (56%), ultrasound equipment (50%), and funding for training (35%). Additionally, chiefs reported time utilization, clinical indications, and low patient census as barriers. CONCLUSIONS: POCUS has several potential applications for clinicians caring for geriatric patients. Though only 15% of geriatric clinics at VAMCs currently use POCUS, most geriatric chiefs would support implementing POCUS use as a diagnostic tool. The greatest barriers to POCUS implementation in geriatric clinics were a lack of training and ultrasound equipment. Addressing these barriers systematically can facilitate implementation of POCUS use into practice and permit assessment of the impact of POCUS on geriatric care in the future.

The creative cliff illusion.

Across eight studies, we tested whether people understand the time course of their own creativity. Prior literature finds that creativity tends to improve across an ideation session. Here we compared people's beliefs against their actual creative performance. Consistent with prior research, we found that people's creativity, on aggregate, remained constant or improved across an ideation session. However, people's beliefs did not match this reality. We consistently found that people expected their creativity to decline over time. We refer to this misprediction as the creative cliff illusion. Study 1 found initial evidence of this effect across an ideation task. We found further evidence in a sample with high domain-relevant knowledge (study 2), when creativity judgments were elicited retrospectively (study 3), and across a multiday study (study 5). We theorized the effect occurs because people mistakenly associate creativity (the novelty and usefulness of an idea) with idea production (the ability to generate an idea). Study 4 found evidence consistent with this mechanism. The creative cliff illusion was attenuated among those with high levels of everyday creative experience (study 6) and after a knowledge intervention that increased awareness of the effect (study 7). Demonstrating the impact of creativity beliefs on downstream performance, study 8 found that declining creativity beliefs negatively influenced task persistence and creative performance, suggesting that people underinvest in ideation. This research contributes to work on prediction in the creative domain and demonstrates the importance of understanding creativity beliefs for predicting creative performance.

Consent Rates Reported in Published Pediatric Randomized Controlled Trials.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the average reported consent rate for published pediatric randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and whether this rate varies by trial characteristics. STUDY DESIGN: A review of pediatric RCTs published in Medline in 2009, 2010, or 2015 was performed. Secondary analyses of prior trials, trials including adults, trials not requiring consent, or trials with missing or unclear consent data were excluded. Consent rate was defined as the number of patients enrolled divided by number of eligible patients where families were approached. Random effects meta-regression was conducted to determine the weighted average consent rate. RESULTS: Of 2347 trials identified, 1651 were excluded. An additional 418 of 696 (60%) were excluded because the consent rate was missing or unclear. The average consent rate for 278 included RCTs was 82.6% (95% CI, 80.3%-84.8%) and was higher for vaccination compared with behavioral trials and for industry-funded compared with National Institutes of Health-funded or other government-funded trials. The average consent rate was <70% for 26% of included trials. Of these trials, US trials (28/77 [36.4%]) had a higher probability of a consent rate of <70% than non-US studies (35/64 [21.3%]) and multinational (9/37 [24.3%]) studies. There was slight variation by funding category. CONCLUSIONS: Although the average consent rate for published trials was reasonably high, approximately one-quarter of trials had consent rates of <70%. Consent rates reporting has improved over time, but remains suboptimal. Our findings should assist with the planning of future pediatric RCTs, although consent data from unpublished trials are also needed.

Design, synthesis and identification of novel, orally bioavailable non-covalent Nrf2 activators.

Nrf2 is a transcription factor regulating expression of the Phase II Antioxidant Response and plays an important role in neuroprotection and detoxification. Nrf2 activation is inhibited by interaction with Keap1. Covalent Keap1 inhibitors such as dimethyl fumarate (DMF) and RTA-408 are either on the market or in late stage clinical trials which implies potential benefit of Nrf2 activation. Activation of Nrf2 by disrupting Nrf2-Keap1 interaction through a non-covalent small molecule is an attractive approach with the promise of greater selectivity. However, there are no known non-covalent Nrf2 activators with acceptable pharmacokinetic properties to test the hypothesis in vivo. Based on our early reported work, using structural-based design, followed by extensive SAR exploration, we have identified a novel series of non-covalent Nrf2 activators, with sub-nanomolar binding affinity on Keap1 and single digit nanomolar activity in an astrocyte assay. A representative analog shows excellent oral PK and good Nrf2-dependent gene inductions in kidney. These results provide a peripheral in vivo tool compound to validate the biology of non-covalent activation of Nrf2.

Characterizing Reimbursements for Medicare Patients Receiving Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair at Vascular Quality Initiative Centers.

BACKGROUND: Endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVR) has a major financial impact on health care systems. We characterized reimbursement for index EVR hospitalizations among Medicare beneficiaries having surgery at Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) centers. METHODS: We linked Medicare claims to VQI clinical registry data for patients undergoing EVR from 2003 to 2015. Analysis was limited to patients fully covered by fee-for-service Medicare parts A and B in the year of their operation and assigned a corresponding diagnosis-related group for EVR. The primary outcome was Medicare's reimbursement for inpatient hospital and professional services, adjusted to 2015 dollars. We performed descriptive analysis of reimbursement over time and univariate analysis to evaluate patient demographics, clinical characteristics, procedural variables, and postoperative events associated with reimbursement. This informed a multilevel regression model used to identify factors independently associated with EVR reimbursement and quantify VQI center-level variation in reimbursement. RESULTS: We studied 9,403 Medicare patients who underwent EVR at VQI centers during the study period. Reimbursements declined from $37,450 ± $9,350 (mean ± standard deviation) in 2003 to $27,723 ± $10,613 in 2015 (test for trend, P < 0.001). For patients experiencing a complication (n = 773; 8.2%), mean reimbursement for EVR was $44,858 ± $23,825 versus $28,857 ± $9,258 for those without complications (P < 0.001). Intestinal ischemia, new dialysis requirement, and respiratory compromise each doubled Medicare's average reimbursement for EVR. After adjusting for diagnosis-related group, several patient-level factors were independently associated with higher Medicare reimbursement; these included ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (+$2,372), additional day in length of stay (+$1,275), and being unfit for open repair (+$501). Controlling for patient-level factors, 4-fold variation in average reimbursement was seen across VQI centers. CONCLUSIONS: Reimbursement for EVR declined between 2003 and 2015. We identified preoperative clinical factors independently associated with reimbursement and quantified the impact of different postoperative complications on reimbursement. More work is needed to better understand the substantial variation observed in reimbursement at the center level.

Reproducibility of point-of-care ultrasonography for central vein diameter measurement: Separating image acquisition from interpretation.

PURPOSE: Central vein point-of-care ultrasonography must be reproducible to detect intravascular volume changes. We sought to determine which measurement step, image acquisition or interpretation, could be more compromising for reproducibility. METHODS: Three investigators each acquired inferior vena cava (IVC) and internal jugular (IJV) vein ultrasonographic sequences (US) from a convenience sample of 21 hospitalized general medicine participants and then interpreted each US three separate times. We partitioned the random errors of acquisition and interpretation, attributing wider dispersions of each to larger reductions in reproducibility. RESULTS: We analyzed 351 interpretations of 39 IVC and 432 interpretations of 48 IJV US. Reproducibility of the maximum (standard error of measurement 3.3 mm [95% confidence interval, CI 2.7-4.2 mm]) and minimum (4.8 mm [3.9-6.3 mm]) IVC diameter measurements were worse than that of the mediolateral (2.5 mm [2.0-3.2 mm]) and anteroposterior (2.5 mm [2.0-3.1 mm]) IJV diameters. The dispersions of random measurement errors were wider among acquisitions than interpretations. CONCLUSIONS: Among our investigators, central vein diameter measurements obtained by point-of-care ultrasonography are not sufficiently reproducible to distinguish clinically meaningful intravascular volume changes from measurement errors. Reproducibility could be most effectively improved by reducing the random measurement errors of acquisition. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Ultrasound 45:488-496, 2017.

Inferior vena cava diameter change after intravenous furosemide in patients diagnosed with acute decompensated heart failure.

PURPOSE: Measurement of the inferior vena cava (IVC) diameters may improve decision-making for patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure. Nevertheless, little is known about how the IVC is affected by loop diuretics. We sought to determine if bolus infusions of intravenous furosemide affect IVC diameters measured by hand-carried ultrasonography. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study at a public teaching hospital from September 2009 through June 2010. Physician investigators performed IVC ultrasonography on a convenience sample of 70 hospitalized adults who were prescribed intravenous furosemide for the diagnosis of acute decompensated heart failure. RESULTS: Participants' median baseline IVC diameter was 2.38 cm (interquartile range, 1.91-2.55 cm). At 1-2 hours after furosemide, IVC diameters decreased an average of 0.21 cm (95% CI, 0.13-0.29 cm) and remained significantly below baseline at 2-3 hours after furosemide by an average of 0.15 cm (95% CI, 0.07-0.22 cm). CONCLUSIONS: IVC diameters of adults diagnosed with acute decompensated heart failure become measurably smaller after single doses of intravenous furosemide. Whether this represents a true change in volume status has not been studied.

Lithium as an adjunct to radioactive iodine for the treatment of hyperthyroidism: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Radioactive iodine (RAI) is commonly used in the treatment of hyperthyroidism but is not uniformly successful. Lithium increases thyroidal iodine retention without reducing iodide uptake, increasing the radiation dose to the thyroid when administered with RAI. Although these actions suggest that adjuvant lithium may increase the efficacy of RAI, its role as an adjunct to RAI remains contentious. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety and efficacy of adding lithium to RAI to treat hyperthyroidism. METHODS: Relevant studies were identified by a search of Medline and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. To be included, a study had to be a controlled trial comparing the effect of RAI alone to RAI with lithium in the treatment of hyperthyroidism. Relevant data were extracted and meta-analyses were performed. RESULTS: Of the 75 identified studies, 6 met the inclusion criteria; 4 of these studies were interventional and 2 were observational trials. Meta-analysis of the observational trials (N = 851), both of which were retrospective cohort studies, showed significant improvement in the primary outcome (i.e., cure rate) with adjunctive lithium (odds ratio [OR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24 to 2.96). The combined interventional trials (N = 485) also showed an improvement in cure rate, but the difference did not reach statistical significance (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.91). Adjunctive lithium reduced time to cure and blunted thyroid hormone excursions after RAI. Lithium-related side effects were infrequent and usually mild. CONCLUSION: The observational trials demonstrated significant improvement in the cure rate of hyperthyroidism when lithium is added to RAI. The improvements shown in the interventional trials did not reach statistical significance due to the effect of a single, large negative trial.

How to reflect on clinical practice.

RATIONALE AND KEY POINTS: This 'How to' article explains how to reflect on clinical practice using reflection-on-action and a reflective model to help ensure the nurse gains comprehensive learning from an experience or incident to enhance their professional development and patient care. • Reflection is a vital element of nursing practice and has a wide-ranging purpose including, for example, self-inquiry into experiences to find meaning, gain insight and prompt action, recognition of emotional responses to care situations and exploring wider issues, such as healthcare culture. • Reflection-on-action involves a retrospective critical exploration of an experience or incident to identify learning points and may be engaged in alone, with one other person, for example during clinical supervision, or in a group activity. • There are a range of reflective models that can be used to structure a reflection, the main components of which generally include a description of the event, reflection on its meaning and identification of learning. REFLECTIVE ACTIVITY: 'How to' articles can help to update your practice and ensure it remains evidence based. Apply this article to your practice. Reflect on and write a short account of: • How this article might improve your practice when using reflective techniques. • How you could use this information to educate nursing students or your colleagues on the appropriate methods for reflecting on clinical practice.

Change in economy of ultrasound probe motion among general medicine trainees.

OBJECTIVES: To observe change in economy of 9 ultrasound probe movement metrics among internal medicine trainees during a 5-day training course in cardiac point of care ultrasound (POCUS). METHODS: We used a novel probe tracking device to record nine features of ultrasound probe movement, while trainees and experts optimized ultrasound clips on the same volunteer patients. These features included translational movements, gyroscopic movements (titling, rocking, and rotation), smoothness, total path length, and scanning time. We determined the adjusted difference between each trainee's movements and the mean value of the experts' movements for each patient. We then used a mixed effects model to trend average the adjusted differences between trainees and experts throughout the 5 days of the course. RESULTS: Fifteen trainees were enrolled. Three echocardiographer technicians and the course director served as experts. Across 16 unique patients, 294 ultrasound clips were acquired. For all 9 movements, the adjusted difference between trainees and experts narrowed day-to-day (p value < 0.05), suggesting ongoing improvement during training. By the last day of the course, there were no statistically significant differences between trainees and experts in translational movement, gyroscopic movement, smoothness, or total path length; yet on average trainees took 28 s (95% CI [14.7-40.3] seconds) more to acquire a clip. CONCLUSIONS: We detected improved ultrasound probe motion economy among internal medicine trainees during a 5-day training course in cardiac POCUS using an inexpensive probe tracking device. Objectively quantifying probe motion economy may help assess a trainee's level of proficiency in this skill and individualize their POCUS training.

How much magnesium sulfate is needed to "keep total serum magnesium above 2.0 mg/dL"?

For patients at increased risk of life-threating ventricular arrythmias, hospitalists often administer intravenous magnesium sulfate to maintain total serum magnesium concentration (TsMg) above 2 mg/dL. How long each dose keeps TsMg above this threshold is not well known, however. We collected TsMg values from 12,618 veterans who were given 24,363 doses of intravenous magnesium sulfate during 14,901 hospitalizations for acute heart failure. Across dose amounts, the average TsMg dropped below 2.0 mg/dL within 24 h of administration. When we limited our analysis to 2 g doses (the most common dose) and adjusted for baseline TsMg, estimated glomerular filtration rate, oral magnesium supplementation, and loop diuretic dosing, we found that less than half of the adjusted TsMg values remained above 2.0 mg/dL just 12 h after dose administration. Hospitalists should expect, on average, to administer 2 g intravenous magnesium sulfate at least twice daily to maintain total serum magnesium above 2 mg/dL.

The ergonomics of dishonesty: the effect of incidental posture on stealing, cheating, and traffic violations.

Research in environmental sciences has found that the ergonomic design of human-made environments influences thought, feeling, and action. In the research reported here, we examined the impact of physical environments on dishonest behavior. In four studies, we tested whether certain bodily configurations-or postures-incidentally imposed by the environment led to increases in dishonest behavior. The first three experiments showed that individuals who assumed expansive postures (either consciously or inadvertently) were more likely to steal money, cheat on a test, and commit traffic violations in a driving simulation. Results suggested that participants' self-reported sense of power mediated the link between postural expansiveness and dishonesty. Study 4 revealed that automobiles with more expansive driver's seats were more likely to be illegally parked on New York City streets. Taken together, the results suggest that, first, environments that expand the body can inadvertently lead people to feel more powerful, and second, these feelings of power can cause dishonest behavior.

Organ donation among undocumented hispanic immigrants: an assessment of knowledge and attitudes.

BACKGROUND: Undocumented immigrants can donate their organs, but lack access to organ transplantation.This challenges foundational principles of organ donation: fairness and informed consent. Little is known about undocumented immigrants' knowledge of barriers to their access to organ transplantation or how this might affect their decision to donate their organs. METHODS: The study was performed in an urban, university-affiliated, safety-net hospital.We interviewed hospitalized patients who self-identified as undocumented immigrants and were unaware of having any contraindication to organ donation (for example, cancer). We first recorded their demographic characteristics and knowledge and attitudes regarding organ donation. We then assessed the effects of informing participants about limits to their access to organ transplants on their willingness to donate. RESULTS: This group of 59 uninsured Hispanic immigrants had adequate knowledge about organ donation. Participants were suspicious about inequality within the medical system, but most were willing to donate their organs (74 percent). Most participants (74 percent) were aware that they would have to pay to receive an organ, but they dramatically underestimated the out-of-pocket expenses.Yet willingness to donate their organs was unaffected by participants being explicitly informed of the low likelihood that they would be able to afford to receive an organ transplant. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being well informed about the organ donation system, undocumented Hispanic immigrants underestimate the costs and overestimate their likelihood of receiving an organ. Even when they are given this information, they remain willing to donate their own organs.

Using reflection in nursing practice to enhance patient care.

The ability to reflect on, and learn from, practice experiences is essential for nurses when seeking to provide effective person-centred care. This article outlines the various types of reflection that nurses can use, such as reflection-in-action and reflection-on-action. It also details some of the main models of reflection and explains how nurses might develop their skills in reflection to enhance the quality of patient care. The article provides examples of cases and reflective activities to demonstrate how nurses can use reflection in their practice.

Relative Blood Volume Profiles Hours After Loop Diuretic Administration: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background: Plasma refill rates can be estimated by combining measurements of urine output with relative blood volume profiles. Change in plasma refill rates could guide decongestive loop diuretic therapy in acute heart failure. The objective of the study was to assess average relative blood volume profiles generated from 2 or 3 follow-up measurements obtained hours after loop diuretic administration in subjects with vs without baseline congestion. Methods: A systematic review was conducted of articles written in English, French, Spanish, and German, using MEDLINE (1964 to 2019), Cochrane Reviews (1996 to 2019), and Embase (1974 to 2019). Search terms included the following: diuretics, hemoconcentration, plasma volume, and blood volume. We included studies of adults given a loop diuretic with at least one baseline and one follow-up measurement. A single author extracted subject- or group-level blood volume measurements, aggregated them when needed, and converted them to relative changes. Results: Across all 16 studies that met the prespecified inclusion criteria, relative blood volume maximally decreased 9.2% (6.6% to 12.0%) and returned to baseline after 3 or more hours. Compared to subjects without congestion, those with congestion experienced smaller decreases in relative blood volume across all follow-up periods (P = 0.001) and returned to baseline within the final follow-up period. Conclusions: Single doses of loop diuretics produce measurable changes in relative blood volume that follow distinct profiles for subjects with vs without congestion. Measured alongside urine output, these profiles may be used to estimate plasma refill rates-potential patient-specific targets for decongestive therapy across serial diuretic doses.

Contexte: Le taux de remplissage plasmatique peut être estimé en combinant les mesures de la diurèse et les profils volémiques relatifs. Chez les personnes atteintes d'insuffisance cardiaque aiguë, une variation du taux de remplissage plasmatique pourrait guider un traitement décongestif par un diurétique de l'anse. L'étude avait pour objectif d'évaluer les profils volémiques relatifs moyens obtenus dans le cadre de deux ou trois mesures de suivi réalisées quelques heures après l'administration d'un diurétique de l'anse à des sujets présentant ou non une congestion initiale. Méthodologie: Une revue systématique d'articles rédigés en anglais, en français, en espagnol et en allemand a été effectuée au moyen des bases de données MEDLINE (1964 à 2019), Cochrane Reviews (1996 à 2019) et Embase (1974 à 2019). Les termes de recherche comprenaient : diurétiques, hémoconcentration, volume plasmatique et volume sanguin. Nous avons inclus des études portant sur des adultes ayant reçu un diurétique de l'anse chez qui au moins une mesure initiale et une mesure de suivi avaient été effectuées. Un seul auteur a recueilli des mesures du volume sanguin individuelles ou de groupe, les a regroupées, au besoin, et converties en variations relatives. Résultats: Parmi les 16 études qui répondaient aux critères d'inclusion prédéfinis, le volume sanguin relatif a diminué de 9,2 % (de 6,6 % à 12,0 %) et est revenu aux valeurs initiales après trois heures ou plus. Les sujets qui présentaient une congestion ont connu des diminutions du volume sanguin relatif inférieures à celles de ceux n'en présentant pas lors de toutes les périodes de suivi (p = 0,001); le volume sanguin relatif est revenu aux valeurs initiales durant la période finale de suivi. Conclusions: Des doses uniques de diurétique de l'anse produisent des changements mesurables du volume sanguin relatif selon des profils distincts chez les sujets présentant une congestion, comparativement à ceux n'en présentant pas. Utilisés en association avec les mesures de la diurèse, ces profils peuvent servir à estimer le taux de remplissage plasmatique, qui constitue potentiellement une cible particulière au patient qui reçoit une série de doses d'un diurétique comme traitement décongestif.

Excess mortality in US Veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality. METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e. excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths) and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively. RESULTS: Of 5 905 747 patients, the median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103 164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasizing the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Absolute and relative excess mortality across demographic and clinical subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study from a nationwide healthcare system of US Veterans.

Background: Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality. Methods: We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e., excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths), and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall, and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively. Results: Of 5,905,747 patients, median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103,164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46). Conclusions: Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasising the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Excess Mortality Among Patients in the Veterans Affairs Health System Compared With the Overall US Population During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a substantial increase in the rate of death in the United States. It is unclear whether those who had access to comprehensive medical care through the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system had different death rates compared with the overall US population. Objective: To quantify and compare the increase in death rates during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic between individuals who received comprehensive medical care through the VA health care system and those in the general US population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study compared 10.9 million enrollees in the VA, including 6.8 million active users of VA health care (those with a visit in the last 2 years), with the general population of the US, with deaths occurring from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted from May 17, 2021, to March 15, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in rates of death from any cause during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compared with previous years. Changes in all-cause death rates by quarter were stratified by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and region, based on individual-level data. Multilevel regression models were fit in a bayesian setting. Standardized rates were used for comparison between populations. Results: There were 10.9 million enrollees in the VA health care system and 6.8 million active users. The demographic characteristics of the VA populations were predominantly male (>85% in the VA health care system vs 49% in the general US population), older (mean [SD], 61.0 [18.2] years in the VA health care system vs 39.0 [23.1] years in the US population), and had a larger proportion of patients who were White (73% in the VA health care system vs 61% in the US population) or Black (17% in the VA health care system vs 13% in the US population). Increases in death rates were apparent across all of the adult age groups (≥25 years) in both the VA populations and the general US population. Across all of 2020, the relative increase in death rates compared with expected values was similar for VA enrollees (risk ratio [RR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.14-1.29]), VA active users (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.14-1.26]), and the general US population (RR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]). Because the prepandemic standardized mortality rates were higher in the VA populations prior to the pandemic, the absolute rates of excess mortality were higher in the VA populations. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, a comparison of excess deaths between populations suggests that active users of the VA health system had similar relative increases in mortality compared with the general US population during the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.