The economics of conservation debt: a natural capital approach to revealed valuation of ecological dynamics.

Some species are valued for their direct usefulness to society, through immediate financial returns from market activities such as harvesting or ecotourism. But many are valued for their passive usefulness, i.e., their mere existence contributes to supporting, regulating or cultural environmental services that support human well-being. Hence, there is inherent social value to conserving such species as natural assets. However, such species are seldom priced as natural assets, and thus not accounted for in sustainability wealth measures because deriving non-market prices is challenging. We overcome this limitation by presenting a new approach for natural asset pricing of species with passive value that can be incorporated into national sustainability wealth accounting. We explicitly consider the relationship between prevailing institutions, species interactions, and ecosystem dynamics. Our approach is illustrated with the case of threatened woodland caribou in the Alberta Oil Sands. We show that conservation can be considered an investment while destructive activities can lead to a loss or conservation debt; and forgoing destructive activities can be considered a capital gain, increasing future wealth. Our approach reveals that caribou conservation in Alberta is leading to a conservation debt on the order of CA$800 million.

Incorporating human dimensions is associated with better wildlife translocation outcomes.

Wildlife translocations are increasingly used to combat declining biodiversity worldwide. Successful translocation often hinges on coexistence between humans and wildlife, yet not all translocation efforts explicitly include human dimensions (e.g., economic incentives, education programs, and conflict reduction assistance). To evaluate the prevalence and associated outcomes of including human dimensions as objectives when planning translocations, we analyze 305 case studies from the IUCN's Global Re-Introduction Perspectives Series. We find that fewer than half of all projects included human dimension objectives (42%), but that projects including human dimension objectives were associated with improved wildlife population outcomes (i.e., higher probability of survival, reproduction, or population growth). Translocation efforts were more likely to include human dimension objectives if they involved mammals, species with a history of local human conflict, and local stakeholders. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating objectives related to human dimensions in translocation planning efforts to improve conservation success.

A COVID-19 Risk Assessment for the US Labor Force.

The consequences of COVID-19 infection varies substantially based on individual social risk factors and predisposing health conditions. Understanding this variability may be critical for targeting COVID-19 control measures, resources and policies, including efforts to return people back to the workplace. We compiled individual level data from the National Health Information Survey and Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages to estimate the number of at-risk workers for each US county and industry, accounting for both social and health risks. Nearly 80% of all workers have at least one health risk and 11% are over 60 with an additional health risk. We document important variation in the at-risk population across states, counties, and industries that could provide a strategic underpinning to a staged return to work.

A global repository of novel antimicrobial emergence events.

Despite considerable global surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), data on the global emergence of new resistance genotypes in bacteria has not been systematically compiled. We conducted a study of English-language scientific literature (2006-2017) and ProMED-mail disease surveillance reports (1994-2017) to identify global events of novel AMR emergence (first clinical reports of unique drug-bacteria resistance combinations). We screened 24,966 abstracts and reports, ultimately identifying 1,757 novel AMR emergence events from 268 peer-reviewed studies and 26 disease surveillance reports (294 total). Events were reported in 66 countries, with most events in the United States (152), China (128), and India (127). The most common bacteria demonstrating new resistance were Klebsiella pneumoniae (344) and Escherichia coli (218). Resistance was most common against antibiotic drugs imipenem (89 events), ciprofloxacin (84) and ceftazidime (83). We provide an open-access database of emergence events with standardized fields for bacterial species, drugs, location, and date. We discuss the impact of reporting and surveillance bias on database coverage, and we suggest guidelines for data analysis. This database may be broadly useful for understanding rates and patterns of AMR evolution, identifying global drivers and correlates, and targeting surveillance and interventions.