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OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of tocilizumab (TCZ) monotherapy after ultra-short-pulse glucocorticoids (GCs) on clinical manifestations, and vessel inflammation and damage in large vessel-GCA (LV-GCA). METHODS: In this prospective observational study, we enrolled patients with active LV-GCA. All patients received 500 mg per day i.v. methylprednisolone for three consecutive days and weekly s.c. TCZ injections from day 4 until week 52. PET/CT was performed on all patients at baseline and at weeks 24 and 52. The primary end points were the reduction in the PET vascular activity score (PETVAS) at weeks 24 and 52 compared with baseline, and the proportion of patients with relapse-free remission at weeks 24 and 52. The secondary end point was the proportion of patients with new aortic dilation at weeks 24 and 52. RESULTS: A total of 18 patients were included (72% female, mean age 68.5 years). Compared with the baseline value, a significant reduction in the PETVAS was observed at weeks 24 and 52, mean (95% CI) reductions -8.6 (-11.5 to -5.7) and -10.4 (-13.6 to -7.2), P = 0.001 and 0.002, respectively. The proportion of patients with relapse-free remission at weeks 24 and 52 was 10/18 (56%, 95% CI 31-78) and 8/17 (47%, 95% CI 23-72), respectively. At weeks 24 and 52, no patient had shown new aortic dilation. However, 4 patients who had shown aortic dilation at baseline showed a significant increase in aortic diameter (≥5 mm) at week 52. CONCLUSION: TCZ monotherapy after ultra-short-pulse GCs controlled the clinical symptoms of GCA and reduced vascular inflammation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT05394909.
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Arteritis de Células Gigantes , Glucocorticoides , Humanos , Femenino , Anciano , Masculino , Glucocorticoides/uso terapéutico , Arteritis de Células Gigantes/diagnóstico por imagen , Arteritis de Células Gigantes/tratamiento farmacológico , Tomografía Computarizada por Tomografía de Emisión de Positrones , Resultado del Tratamiento , InflamaciónRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To assess the maintenance of efficacy of one year of tocilizumab (TCZ) monotherapy after its discontinuation in large vessel-GCA (LV-GCA). METHODS: 17 patients with active LV-GCA were previously treated with 3 boluses of intravenous methylprednisone and weekly subcutaneous TCZ in monotherapy for 52 weeks. Patients in relapse-free clinical remission at week 52 discontinued TCZ and entered part two, which was a 26-week observational follow-up period. PET/CT was performed in all patients at the end of the 26-week observational period (week 78). End points were the variation in PET vascular activity score (PETVAS) at week 78 compared with baseline and with week 52, and the proportion of patients with relapse-free clinical remission at week 78 and at the end of the follow-up. RESULTS: Compared with baseline, a significant reduction in PETVAS was observed at week 78, mean (95% CI) change -6.6 (-9.5 to -3.7). However, compared with week 52, PETVAS significantly increase 6 months after TCZ discontinuation (week 78), mean (95% CI) change 4.6 (0.7-8.5). The proportion of patients with relapse-free clinical remission at weeks 78 and at the end of the follow-up (median time from TCZ discontinuation 148 weeks) was 11/17 (65%, 95% CI 38-86) and 8/17 (47%, 95% CI 23-72), respectively. Age and sex-adjusted HR (95% CI) for each unit increase of PETVAS indicating subsequent relapse was 1.36 (0.92-2.00). CONCLUSIONS: One year of TCZ monotherapy was effective in maintaining drug-free clinical remission in LV-GCA. Changes in PETVAS early after TCZ discontinuation may predict subsequent relapses. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05394909.
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AIMS: Tumour necrosis and/or increased mitoses define high-grade papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). It is unclear whether angioinvasion is prognostic for PTC. Cut-offs at five or more mitoses/2 mm2 and four or more angioinvasive foci have been empirically defined based upon data from all forms of aggressive non-anaplastic thyroid carcinomas. Performance of tumour necrosis, mitoses and vascular invasion in predicting distant metastases when specifically applied to PTC is undefined. METHODS: We analysed 50 consecutive PTC cases with distant metastases (DM-PTC): 16 synchronous and 34 metachronous. A total of 108 non-metastatic PTC (N-DM-PTC, 15.0-year median follow-up) were used as controls. Invasive encapsulated follicular variant PTC was excluded. Necrosis, mitoses and angioinvasion were quantified. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analyses determined best sensitivity and specificity cut-offs predictive of distant metastases. RESULTS: Metastases correlated with necrosis (any extent = 43.8% all DM-PTC, 53.1% metachronous DM-PTC versus 5% N-DM-PTC; P < 0.001), mitoses (P < 0.001) and angioinvasion (P < 0.001). Mitoses at five or more per 2 mm2 was the best cut-off correlating with distant metastases: sensitivity/specificity 42.9%/97.2% all DM-PTC (AUC = 0.78), 18.8%/97.2% synchronous DM-PTC (AUC = 0.63), 54.6%/97.2% metachronous DM-PTC (AUC = 0.85). Angioinvasive foci at five or more was the best cut-off correlating with distant metastases: sensitivity/specificity 36.2%/91.7% all DM-PTC (AUC = 0.75), 25%/91.7% synchronous DM-PTC (AUC = 0.79) and 41.9%/91.7% metachronous DM-PTC (AUC = 0.73). Positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV) were: necrosis 22.6%/98.2%; five or more mitoses 32.3%/98.2%; five or more angioinvasive foci 11.8%/97.9%. After multivariable analysis, only necrosis and mitotic activity remained associated with DM-PTC. CONCLUSION: Our data strongly support PTC grading, statistically validating World Health Organisation (WHO) criteria to identify poor prognosis PTC. Angioinvasion is not an independent predictor of DM-PTC.
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Necrosis , Cáncer Papilar Tiroideo , Neoplasias de la Tiroides , Humanos , Masculino , Neoplasias de la Tiroides/patología , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Cáncer Papilar Tiroideo/patología , Adulto , Pronóstico , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Anciano , Organización Mundial de la Salud , Invasividad Neoplásica , Carcinoma Papilar/patología , Mitosis , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: We aimed to identify cytokines whose concentrations are related to lung damage, radiomic features, and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. MATERIAL OR SUBJECTS: Two hundred twenty-six patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and chest computed tomography (CT) images were enrolled. METHODS: CCL18, CHI3L1/YKL-40, GAL3, ANG2, IP-10, IL-10, TNFα, IL-6, soluble gp130, soluble IL-6R were quantified in plasma samples using Luminex assays. The Mann-Whitney U test, the Kruskal-Wallis test, correlation and regression analyses were performed. Mediation analyses were used to investigate the possible causal relationships between cytokines, lung damage, and outcomes. AVIEW lung cancer screening software, pyradiomics, and XGBoost classifier were used for radiomic feature analyses. RESULTS: CCL18, CHI3L1, and ANG2 systemic levels mainly reflected the extent of lung injury. Increased levels of every cytokine, but particularly of IL-6, were associated with the three outcomes: hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and death. Soluble IL-6R showed a slight protective effect on death. The effect of age on COVID-19 outcomes was partially mediated by cytokine levels, while CT scores considerably mediated the effect of cytokine levels on outcomes. Radiomic-feature-based models confirmed the association between lung imaging characteristics and CCL18 and CHI3L1. CONCLUSION: Data suggest a causal link between cytokines (risk factor), lung damage (mediator), and COVID-19 outcomes.
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COVID-19 , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Interleucina-6 , SARS-CoV-2 , Proteína 1 Similar a Quitinasa-3 , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Radiómica , Pulmón/diagnóstico por imagen , Citocinas , Quimiocinas CCRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Despite being at higher risk of severe disease and pregnancy complications, evidence on susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy is still limited. The aim of the study is to compare the likelihood of undergoing a SARS-CoV-2 test and testing positive for COVID-19 in pregnancy and puerperium with that of the general female population of reproductive age. METHODS: This is a retrospective population-based cohort study including 117,606 women of reproductive age (March 2020-September 2021) with 6608 (5.6%) women having ≥ 1 pregnancy. Women were linked to the pregnancy registry to be classified as "non-pregnant", "pregnant", and "puerperium"; then, according to the national case-based integrated COVID-19 surveillance system, all women undergoing a SARS-CoV-2 test during the study period were identified. The Incidence Rate Ratio was calculated to compare the likelihood of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 in pregnant, puerperium and non-pregnant women among all women included. The likelihood of having a COVID-19 diagnosis was calculated using two comparators (not-pregnant women and the person-time before/after pregnancy) by means of Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age and with the cluster option to control standard error calculation in repeated pregnancies. Only first infection and swabs before the first one positive were included. RESULTS: The probability of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 was 4.9 (95% CI: 4.8-5.1) and 3.6 times higher (95%CI: 3.4-3.9) in pregnancy (including spontaneous miscarriages) and in the puerperium, respectively. The Hazard Ratio (HR) of covid-19 diagnosis during pregnancy vs. non-pregnancy was 1.17 (95% CI 1.03-1.33) with similar results when comparing the risk during pregnancy with that of the same women outside pregnancy (puerperium excluded), with an HR of 1.13 (95% CI 0.96-1.33); the excess decreased when excluding the test performed at admission for delivery (HR 1.08 (95%CI 0.90-1.30). In the puerperium, the HR was 0.62 (95% CI 0.41-0.92) comparing women with ≥ 1childbirth with all other women and excluding the first two weeks of puerperium. CONCLUSIONS: Women during pregnancy showed a small increase in the risk of infection, compatible with a higher likelihood of being tested. A lower probability of infection during the puerperium was observed during the entire pandemic period, suggesting likely protective behaviors which were effective in reducing their probability of infection.
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COVID-19 , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Incidencia , Prueba de COVID-19 , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estudios de Cohortes , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/diagnóstico , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BackgroundUnderstanding the epidemiology of reinfections is crucial for SARS-CoV-2 control over a long period.AimTo evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time after first infection.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study including all residents in the Reggio Emilia province on 31 December 2019, followed up until 28 February 2022 for SARS-CoV-2 first infection and reinfection after 90 days. Cox models were used to compare risk of first infection vs reinfection, adjusting for age, sex, vaccine doses and comorbidities.ResultsThe cohort included 538,516 residents, 121,154 with first SARS-CoV-2 infections and 3,739 reinfections, most in the Omicron BA.1 period. In the pre-Omicron period, three doses of vaccine reduced risk of reinfection by 89% (95%â¯CI:â¯87-90), prior infection reduced risk by 90% (95%â¯CI:â¯88-91), while two doses and infection reduced risk by 98% (95%â¯CI:â¯96-99). In the Omicron BA.1 period, protection estimates were 53% (95%â¯CI:â¯52-55), 9% (95%â¯CI:â¯4-14) and 76% (95%â¯CI:â¯74-77). Before Omicron, protection from reinfection remained above 80% for up to 15 months; with Omicron BA.1, protection decreased from 71% (95%â¯CI:â¯65-76) at 5 months to 21% (95%â¯CI:â¯10-30) at 22 months from the first infection. Omicron BA.1 reinfections showed 48% (95%â¯CI:â¯10-57) lower risk of severe disease than first infections.ConclusionsNatural immunity acquired with previous variants showed low protection against Omicron BA.1. Combined vaccination and natural immunity seems to be more protective against reinfection than either alone. Vaccination of people with prior infection reduced the risk of severe disease.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Estudios de Cohortes , Reinfección/epidemiología , Reinfección/prevención & control , Italia/epidemiología , VacunaciónRESUMEN
Introduction: Plasmapheresis donation is considered safe and well tolerated, although long-term effects need to be clarified. The volumes of anticoagulant (ACD-A) used are variable and depend primarily on hematocrit (HCT), total blood processed, amount of plasma collected, and donor characteristics. To elucidate the effect of the plasma unit weight setting on plasmapheresis efficiency and ACD-A distribution, we enrolled male donors undergoing a controlled apheresis process donating 700 g and 720 g in two different sessions. In parallel, we investigated a possible effect of sex, recruiting women donating 700 g of plasma. Methods: The study was conducted on men donating 720 g and (12 months later) 700 g of plasma, and on women donating 700 g of plasma. The main outcomes were pre-/post-donation delta (Δ) citrate concentration in donor plasma and ACD-A reinfused to the donor. Information concerning the annual check-up and the procedure was also collected. Intergroup comparisons (men donating 720 g vs. men donating 700 g and men vs. women both donating 700 g) and intragroup associations with donor and procedural characteristics were reported. Results: With the procedure set at 720 g, the machine processed around 44 mL more whole blood to collect 20 g more plasma, and 720 g donors received around 12 mL more anticoagulant than 700 g donors. Accordingly, Δ citrate concentration was 1.5 times higher (12 µm), with a greater variability observed for 720 g donations. Citrate concentration in the plasma unit was lower in the 720 g group, although not significantly. Comparing outcomes between women and men donating 700 g, we observed higher (and highly variable) Δ citrate and reinfused ACD-A in women, accompanied by lower anticoagulant levels in the unit. Increased Δ citrate is inversely associated with HCT and age in men and with HCT and triglycerides in women. Reinfused ACD-A correlates with HCT in women but not in men. Conclusion: Unit weight setting and sex influence an ACD-A shift from the estimated values toward an increased reinfusion to donor. In parallel, we observed an impact of age and sex on post-donation citrate metabolism. Altogether, these elements should be taken into account for the development of tailored approaches aimed at maintaining similar safety profiles for all donors using different plasmapheresis settings.
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How to manage human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive women in cervical cancer screening remains debated. Our study compared different strategies to triage HPV positivity in a large cohort of women participating in a population HPV-based screening program. Women were tested for HPV (Cobas 4800; Roche), and those positive were triaged with cytology; cytology-positives were referred to colposcopy, while negatives were referred to 1-year HPV retesting. All HPV-positive women were also evaluated with p16/ki67 dual staining (Roche). All lesions found within 24 months of follow-up were included in the analyses. Of the 70 146 women tested, 4757 (6.8%) were HPV-positive. Of these, 1090 were cytology-positive and were referred to colposcopy. Of the 2958 HPV-positive/cytology-negative women who presented at 1-year retesting, 1752 (59.9%) still tested positive. Cumulatively, 532 CIN2+ (including 294 CIN3+) were found. The sensitivity of cytology, HPV16/18 and p16/ki67 as triage test for CIN3+ was 67.9%, 56.0% and 85.0%, respectively. The positive predictive value (PPV) for immediate colposcopy referral was 21.0%, 15.8% and 22.9%, respectively. Combining cytology with typing increased sensitivity to 83.9% and lowered PPV to 14.8%, while combining p16/ki67 and typing increased sensitivity to 91.1%, lowering the PPV to 15.9%. Women negative to p16/ki67 triage presented a cumulative 1-year CIN3+ risk of about 1%. In conclusion, when triaging HPV positivity, p16/ki67 performed better than cytology with or without HPV16/18 genotyping. The strategies that included dual staining achieved sensitivity and low 1-year risk for CIN3+ sufficiently high enough to permit considering extending the surveillance interval to 2 to 3 years for HPV-positive/triage-negative women.
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Papillomavirus Humano 16/aislamiento & purificación , Papillomavirus Humano 18/aislamiento & purificación , Triaje , Displasia del Cuello del Útero/virología , Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/virología , Inhibidor p16 de la Quinasa Dependiente de Ciclina/análisis , Femenino , Genotipo , Pruebas de ADN del Papillomavirus Humano , Papillomavirus Humano 16/genética , Papillomavirus Humano 18/genética , Humanos , Antígeno Ki-67/análisisRESUMEN
As the primary screening test, E6/E7 mRNA has shown similar sensitivity for CIN3+ and lower positivity rate than the HPV DNA test. Nevertheless, the overall mRNA positivity is too high for immediate colposcopy, making a triage test necessary. The aim was to estimate the mRNA performance as a primary test with different triage strategies. All HPV DNA-positives were tested for mRNA, cytology and p16/ki67. A sample of HPV DNA-negatives was also tested for mRNA to estimate test specificity. We included all CIN3+ histologically diagnosed within 24 months since recruitment. Of the 41 127 participants, 7.7% were HPV DNA-positive, of which 66.4% were mRNA-positive. Among the HPV DNA-negatives, 10/1108 (0.9%) were mRNA-positive. Overall, 97 CIN3+ were found. If mRNA was used as the primary test, it would miss about 3% of all CIN3+ with a 22% reduction of positivity compared with HPV DNA. The weighted specificity estimate for Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Papillomavirus
, Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino
, Colposcopía
, Detección Precoz del Cáncer/métodos
, Femenino
, Humanos
, Antígeno Ki-67/genética
, Papillomaviridae/genética
, Embarazo
, ARN Mensajero/genética
, Sensibilidad y Especificidad
, Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/diagnóstico
, Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/genética
, Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/patología
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Background Adding digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) to digital mammography (DM) improves breast cancer screening sensitivity, but how this impacts mortality and other end points is unknown. Purpose To compare interval and overall breast cancer incidence after screening with DBT plus DM versus DM alone. Materials and Methods In this prospective trial (RETomo), women attending screening were randomized to one round of DBT plus DM (experimental arm) or to DM (control arm). All were then rescreened with DM after 12 months (women aged 45-49 years) or after 24 months (50-69 years). The primary outcome was interval cancer incidence. Cumulative incidence up to the subsequent screening round plus 9 months (21- and 33-month follow-up for women aged 45-49 and 50-69, respectively) was also reported. Ductal carcinomas in situ are included. Subgroup analyses by age and breast density were conducted; 95% CIs computed according to binomial distribution are reported. Results Baseline cancer detection was higher in the DBT plu DM arm than DM arm (101 of 13 356 women vs 61 of 13 521 women; relative detection, 1.7 [95% CI: 1.2, 2.3]). The mean age ± standard deviation for the women in both arms was 55 years ± 7. Interval cancer incidence was similar in the two arms (21 vs 22 cancers; relative incidence, 0.97 [95% CI: 0.53, 1.8]). Cumulative incidence remained higher in the DBT plus DM arm in women over 50 (153 vs 124 cancers; relative incidence, 1.2 [95% CI: 0.99, 1.6]), while it was similar in the two arms in women aged 45-49 (36 vs 41 cancers; relative incidence, 0.89 [95% CI: 0.57, 1.4]). Conclusion In women younger than 50 years, the benefit of early diagnosis seemed to be appreciable, while for women over age 50, the higher sensitivity of tomosynthesis plus mammography was not matched by a subsequent reduction in cancers at the next screening examination or in the intervening interval. Clinical trial registration no. NCT02698202 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Lee and Ray in this issue.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico por imagen , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/patología , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Mamografía/métodos , Estudios Prospectivos , Sensibilidad y EspecificidadRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the accuracy of PET/CT and of PET vascular activity score (PETVAS) in assessing disease activity and the ability of PETVAS in predicting relapses in a large single-centre cohort of patients with large vessel vasculitis (LVV). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected data of consecutive patients diagnosed with LVV who underwent at least one PET/CT scan between 2007 and 2020. The nuclear medicine physician's interpretation of each PET/CT scan (active/inactive vasculitis) was compared with disease activity clinical judgement (active disease/remission). For each PET/CT scan, the PETVAS score was calculated and its accuracy in assessing disease activity was evaluated. The ability of PETVAS in predicting subsequent relapses was evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 100 consecutive LVV patients (51 large vessel GCA, 49 Takayasu arteritis) underwent a total of 476 PET/CT scans over a mean follow-up period of 97.5 months. Physician-determined PET/CT grading was able to distinguish between clinically active and inactive LVV with a sensitivity of 60% (95% CI 50.9, 68.7) and specificity of 80.1% (95% CI 75.5, 84.1); the area under the curve (AUC )was 0.70 (95% CI 0.65, 0.75). PETVAS was associated with disease activity, with an age and sex-adjusted odds ratio for active disease of 1.15 (95% CI 1.11, 1.19). A PETVAS ≥10 provided 60.8% sensitivity and 80.6% specificity in differentiating between clinically active and inactive LVV; the AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.68, 0.79). PETVAS was not associated with subsequent relapses, with an age and sex-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.04 (95% CI 0.97, 1.11). CONCLUSIONS: The visual PET/CT grading scale and PETVAS had moderate accuracy to distinguish active LVV from remission. PETVAS did not predict disease relapses.
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Arteritis de Células Gigantes , Arteritis de Takayasu , Humanos , Tomografía Computarizada por Tomografía de Emisión de Positrones , Fluorodesoxiglucosa F18 , Arteritis de Células Gigantes/diagnóstico por imagen , Estudios Retrospectivos , Arteritis de Takayasu/diagnóstico por imagen , RecurrenciaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The first wave of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) dramatically affected the Transfusion Medicine Unit of the Azienda Unità Sanitari Locale - Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (AUSL-IRCCS) di Reggio Emilia, which faced a total rearrangement of the procedures for donors and patients. This study aims to assess the major implications of COVID-19 on our department, focusing on the blood transfusion chain and therapies, in order to support transfusion specialists in seeking efficient ways to face similar future emergencies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study compares our Transfusion Medicine Unit data collected between February and May 2020 with the same period in 2017-2019. Data on red blood cells and platelets donations, transfusions and clinical procedures were collected as aggregates from our internal electronic database. RESULTS: During the lockdown, donor centres were re-organized to reduce the risk of contagion and avoid unnecessary blood collection. Blood donations were re-scheduled to meet the decrease in elective surgery; consequently, plateletapheresis was implemented to supply the reduction of buffycoat-derived platelets. Transfusions significantly decreased together with orthopaedic and vascular surgery, while they were only marginally diminished for both cancer and onco-haematological patients. Reduced procedures for inpatients and outpatients were matched by remote medicine, addressing the need of a constant healthcare support for patients with chronic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The described measures were adopted to avoid excessive blood collection and expiration, guarantee the safety of our ward (for both patients and staff) and supply the necessary transfusion therapies. These measures may support the development of appropriate risk management plans and safety procedures for other hospitals and transfusion services that have to face similar events.
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COVID-19 , Neoplasias , Medicina Transfusional , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Brotes de Enfermedades , Hospitales , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Neoplasias/epidemiología , Neoplasias/terapia , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is scarce. We analysed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period for the Alpha and Delta variants using information on negative polymerase chain reaction tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. We estimated the distributions of the intrinsic generation time using a Bayesian inference approach applied to 9724 SARS-CoV-2 cases clustered in 3545 households where at least one secondary case was recorded. We estimated a mean incubation period of 4.9 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 4.4-5.4) for Alpha and 4.5 days (95% CrI 4.0-5.0) for Delta. The intrinsic generation time was estimated to have a mean of 7.12 days (95% CrI 6.27-8.44) for Alpha and of 6.52 days (95% CrI 5.54-8.43) for Delta. The household serial interval was 2.43 days (95% CrI 2.29-2.58) for Alpha and 2.74 days (95% CrI 2.62-2.88) for Delta, and the estimated proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48-51% for both variants. These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , COVID-19/epidemiología , Trazado de Contacto , Teorema de Bayes , Periodo de Incubación de Enfermedades InfecciosasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Since February 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has rapidly spread throughout Italy. Some studies showed an association of environmental factors, such as PM10, PM2.5, NO2, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and mobility with the spread of the epidemic. In this work, we aimed to predict via Deep Learning the real-time transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the province of Reggio Emilia, Northern Italy, in a grid with a small resolution (12 km × 12 km), including satellite information. METHODS: We focused on the Province of Reggio Emilia, which was severely hit by the first wave of the epidemic. The outcomes included new SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospital admissions. Pollution, meteorological and mobility data were analyzed. The spatial simulation domain included the Province of Reggio Emilia in a grid of 40 cells of (12 km)2. We implemented a ConvLSTM, which is a spatio-temporal deep learning approach, to perform a 7-day moving average to forecast the 7th day after. We used as training and validation set the new daily infections and hospital admissions from August 2020 to March 2021. Finally, we assessed the models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared with Mean Observed Value (MOV) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) on data from April to September 2021. We tested the performance of different combinations of input variables to find the best forecast model. FINDINGS: Daily new cases of infection, mobility and wind speed resulted in being strongly predictive of new COVID-19 hospital admissions (MAE = 2.72 in the Province of Reggio Emilia; MAE = 0.62 in Reggio Emilia city), whereas daily new cases, mobility, solar radiation and PM2.5 turned out to be the best predictors to forecast new infections, with appropriate time lags. INTERPRETATION: ConvLSTM achieved good performances in forecasting new SARS-CoV-2 infections and new COVID-19 hospital admissions. The spatio-temporal representation allows borrowing strength from data neighboring to forecast at the level of the square cell (12 km)2, getting accurate predictions also at the county level, which is paramount to help optimise the real-time allocation of health care resources during an epidemic emergency.
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COVID-19 , Aprendizaje Profundo , COVID-19/epidemiología , Hospitales , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
PURPOSE: The Core Set for Vocational Rehabilitation (CS-VR) of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) describes the work functioning of individuals in need of VR. We aimed to adapt the CS-VR from the perspective of cancer survivors (CSs) and stakeholders, developing a CS-VR-Onco. METHODS: We held five focus groups with 17 CSs who were employed at the time of diagnosis, to discuss their work reintegration experiences. After analyzing the focus group conversations, the CS-VR-Onco was developed. During a group interview, eleven stakeholders explored barriers/facilitations in assessing the work functioning of CSs by using the CS-VR-Onco. We applied the framework method and thematic analysis. RESULTS: For the focus groups, the CS-VR-Onco of 85 categories emerged, and the ICF chapters of Mental functions, Exercise and tolerance functions, Interpersonal interactions and relationships, Major life areas, General tasks and demands, Mobility, Support and relationships, and Attitudes were prioritized. For the group interview, stakeholders' perspectives can be synthetized into two themes: close to the lived experience and usability criteria. Stakeholders confirmed the categories of the CS-VR-Onco, a checklist that should be used through an integrated approach across multiple disciplines. CONCLUSIONS: The adapted CS-VR-Onco reflects the CSs' lived experiences of work reintegration and the factors that have influenced this process. The CS-VR-Onco was described as complete and usable through an integrated approach.
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Supervivientes de Cáncer , Neoplasias , Humanos , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Consenso , Rehabilitación VocacionalRESUMEN
The aim of this population-based study was to evaluate the impact of being a cancer survivor (CS) on COVID-19 risk and prognosis during the first wave of the pandemic (27 February 2020 to 13 May 2020) in Reggio Emilia Province. Prevalent cancer cases diagnosed between 1996 and 2019 were linked with the provincial COVID-19 surveillance system. We compared CS' cumulative incidence of being tested, testing positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), being hospitalized and dying of COVID-19 with that of the general population; we compared COVID-19 prognosis in CS and in patients without cancer. During the study period, 15 391 people (1527 CS) underwent real-time polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 4541 (447 CS) tested positive; 541 (113 CS) died of COVID-19. CS had higher age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) of testing (1.28 [95% confidence interval, CI = 1.21-1.35]), of positive test (IRR 1.06 [95% CI = 0.96-1.18]) and of hospitalization and death (IRR 1.27 [95% CI = 1.09-1.48] and 1.39 [95%CI = 1.12-1.71], respectively). CS had worse prognosis when diagnosed with COVID-19, particularly those below age 70 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] of death 5.03; [95% CI = 2.59-9.75]), while the OR decreased after age 70. The OR of death was higher for CS with a recent diagnosis, that is, <2 years (OR = 2.92; 95% CI = 1.64-5.21), or metastases (OR = 2.09; 95% CI = 0.88-4.93). CS showed the same probability of being infected, despite a slightly higher probability of being tested than the general population. Nevertheless, CS were at higher risk of death once infected.
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OBJECTIVES: To ascertain if the use of hydroxychloroquine(HCQ)/cloroquine(CLQ) and other conventional DMARDs (cDMARDs) and rheumatic diseases per se may be associated with COVID-19-related risk of hospitalization and mortality. METHODS: This case-control study nested within a cohort of cDMARD users was conducted in the Lombardy, Veneto, Tuscany and Lazio regions and Reggio Emilia province. Claims databases were linked to COVID-19 surveillance registries. The risk of COVID-19-related outcomes was estimated using a multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis comparing HCQ/CLQ vs MTX, vs other cDMARDs and vs non-use of these drugs. The presence of rheumatic diseases vs their absence in a non-nested population was investigated. RESULTS: A total of 1275 patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 were matched to 12 734 controls. Compared with recent use of MTX, no association between HCQ/CLQ monotherapy and COVID-19 hospitalization [odds ratio (OR) 0.83 (95% CI 0.69, 1.00)] or mortality [OR 1.19 (95% CI 0.85, 1.67)] was observed. A lower risk was found when comparing HCQ/CLQ use with the concomitant use of other cDMARDs and glucocorticoids. HCQ/CLQ was not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization as compared with non-use. An increased risk for recent use of either MTX monotherapy [OR 1.19 (95% CI 1.05, 1.34)] or other cDMARDs [OR 1.21 (95% CI 1.08, 1.36)] vs non-use was found. Rheumatic diseases were not associated with COVID-19-related outcomes. CONCLUSION: HCQ/CLQ use in rheumatic patients was not associated with a protective effect against COVID-19-related outcomes. The use of other cDMARDs was associated with an increased risk when compared with non-use and, if concomitantly used with glucocorticoids, also vs HCQ/CLQ, probably due to immunosuppressive action.
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Antirreumáticos/uso terapéutico , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Hidroxicloroquina/uso terapéutico , Enfermedades Reumáticas/tratamiento farmacológico , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19/mortalidad , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Quimioterapia Combinada , Femenino , Glucocorticoides/uso terapéutico , Humanos , Italia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Oportunidad Relativa , Vigilancia de la Población , Enfermedades Reumáticas/virología , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The liver is one of the most frequent sites of metastases in rectal cancer. This study aimed to evaluate how the development of synchronous or metachronous liver metastasis and overall survival are impacted by baseline liver steatosis and chemotherapy-induced liver damage in rectal cancer patients. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with stage II to IV rectal cancer between 2010 and 2016 in our province with suitable baseline CT scan were included. Data on cancer diagnosis, staging, therapy, outcomes and liver function were collected. CT scans were retrospectively reviewed to assess baseline steatosis (liver density < 48 HU and/or liver-to-spleen ratio < 1.1). Among patients without baseline steatosis and treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, chemotherapy-induced liver damage was defined as steatosis appearance, ≥ 10% liver volume increase, or significant increase in liver function tests. RESULTS: We included 283 stage II to IV rectal cancer patients with suitable CT scan (41% females; mean age 68 ± 14 years). Steatosis was present at baseline in 90 (31.8%) patients, synchronous liver metastasis in 42 (15%) patients and metachronous liver metastasis in 26 (11%); 152 (54%) deaths were registered. The prevalence of synchronous liver metastasis was higher in patients with steatosis (19% vs 13%), while the incidence of metachronous liver metastasis was similar. After correcting for age, sex, stage, and year of diagnosis, steatosis was not associated with metachronous liver metastasis nor with overall survival. In a small analysis of 63 patients without baseline steatosis and treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, chemotherapy-induced liver damage was associated with higher incidence of metachronous liver metastasis and worse survival, results which need to be confirmed by larger studies. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that rectal cancer patients with steatosis had a similar occurrence of metastases during follow-up, even if the burden of liver metastases at diagnosis was slightly higher, compatible with chance.
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Hígado Graso/complicaciones , Neoplasias Hepáticas/secundario , Neoplasias del Recto/patología , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Hígado/efectos de los fármacos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Neoplasias del Recto/tratamiento farmacológico , Neoplasias del Recto/mortalidad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos XRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Right-sided colorectal cancer (CRC) has worse survival than does left-sided CRC. The objective of this study was to further assess the impact of right-side location on survival and the role of the extent of lymphadenectomy. METHODS: All CRCs diagnosed between 2000 and 2012 in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy, were included. Data for stage, grade, histology, screening history, and number of removed lymph nodes (LN) were collected. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR), with relative 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), of right vs. left colon and of removing < 12, 12-21 or > 21 lymph nodes by cancer site. RESULTS: During the study period, 29,358 patients were registered (8828 right colon, 18,852 left colon, 1678 transverse). Patients with right cancer were more often older, females, with advanced stage and high grade, and higher number of removed LNs. Five-year survival was lower in the right than in the left colon (55.2% vs 59.7%). In multivariable analysis, right colon showed a lower survival when adjusting for age, sex, and screening status (HR 1.12, 95%CI 1.04-1.21). Stratification by number of lymph nodes removed (12-21 or > 21) was associated with better survival in right colon (HR 0.54, 95%CI 0.40-0.72 and HR 0.40, 95%CI 0.30-0.55, respectively) compared to left colon (HR 0.89, 95%CI 0.76-1.06 and HR 0.83, 95%CI 0.69-1.01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that right CRC has worse survival; the association is not due to screening status. An adequate removal of lymph nodes is associated with better survival, although the direction of the association in terms of causal links is not clear.
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Neoplasias del Colon , Neoplasias del Colon/cirugía , Femenino , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Escisión del Ganglio Linfático , Ganglios Linfáticos/patología , Ganglios Linfáticos/cirugía , Estadificación de Neoplasias , PronósticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIM: This study assesses whether individuals with substance use disorder are at greater risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than people in the general population. METHODS: A population-based study was conducted including 3,780 individuals, diagnosed with alcohol or other drug dependence and cared for by the addiction service (AS) in the province of Reggio Emilia. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and relative 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of being tested and of being SARS-CoV-2 positive in the population of interest compared with those in the general population of Reggio Emilia were calculated. RESULTS: Both individuals with alcohol and those with other drug use disorders had a lower risk of being SARS-CoV-2 positive (SIR = 0.69; 95% CI 0.32-1.30, SIR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.24-1.10, respectively), despite higher rates of being tested than the general population (SIR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.14-1.89, SIR = 1.51; 95% CI 1.20-1.86, respectively). Among HIV-negative persons, 12.5% were positive to SARS-CoV-2, while none was positive among HIV-positive persons. HCV-infected AS clients had a higher risk of both being tested for SARS-CoV-2 (SIR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.26-2.98) and of resulting positive (SIR = 1.53; 95% CI 0.50-3.58). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with alcohol and/or other drug use disorders are at higher risk of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection but at lower risk of resulting positive than the general population. Further research is warranted in order to support our findings and to address plausible factors underpinning such associations.