Immunogenicity, reactogenicity, and IgE-mediated immune responses of a mixed whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccine schedule in Australian infants: A randomised, double-blind, noninferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, infant vaccination with acellular pertussis (aP) vaccines has replaced use of more reactogenic whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccines. Based on immunological and epidemiological evidence, we hypothesised that substituting the first aP dose in the routine vaccination schedule with wP vaccine might protect against IgE-mediated food allergy. We aimed to compare reactogenicity, immunogenicity, and IgE-mediated responses of a mixed wP/aP primary schedule versus the standard aP-only schedule. METHODS AND FINDINGS: OPTIMUM is a Bayesian, 2-stage, double-blind, randomised trial. In stage one, infants were assigned (1:1) to either a first dose of a pentavalent wP combination vaccine (DTwP-Hib-HepB, Pentabio PT Bio Farma, Indonesia) or a hexavalent aP vaccine (DTaP-Hib-HepB-IPV, Infanrix hexa, GlaxoSmithKline, Australia) at approximately 6 weeks old. Subsequently, all infants received the hexavalent aP vaccine at 4 and 6 months old as well as an aP vaccine at 18 months old (DTaP-IPV, Infanrix-IPV, GlaxoSmithKline, Australia). Stage two is ongoing and follows the above randomisation strategy and vaccination schedule. Ahead of ascertainment of the primary clinical outcome of allergist-confirmed IgE-mediated food allergy by 12 months old, here we present the results of secondary immunogenicity, reactogenicity, tetanus toxoid IgE-mediated immune responses, and parental acceptability endpoints. Serum IgG responses to diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis antigens were measured using a multiplex fluorescent bead-based immunoassay; total and specific IgE were measured in plasma by means of the ImmunoCAP assay (Thermo Fisher Scientific). The immunogenicity of the mixed schedule was defined as being noninferior to that of the aP-only schedule using a noninferiority margin of 2/3 on the ratio of the geometric mean concentrations (GMR) of pertussis toxin (PT)-IgG 1 month after the 6-month aP. Solicited adverse reactions were summarised by study arm and included all children who received the first dose of either wP or aP. Parental acceptance was assessed using a 5-point Likert scale. The primary analyses were based on intention-to-treat (ITT); secondary per-protocol (PP) analyses were also performed. The trial is registered with ANZCTR (ACTRN12617000065392p). Between March 7, 2018 and January 13, 2020, 150 infants were randomised (75 per arm). PT-IgG responses of the mixed schedule were noninferior to the aP-only schedule at approximately 1 month after the 6-month aP dose [GMR = 0·98, 95% credible interval (0·77 to 1·26); probability (GMR > 2/3) > 0·99; ITT analysis]. At 7 months old, the posterior median probability of quantitation for tetanus toxoid IgE was 0·22 (95% credible interval 0·12 to 0·34) in both the mixed schedule group and in the aP-only group. Despite exclusions, the results were consistent in the PP analysis. At 6 weeks old, irritability was the most common systemic solicited reaction reported in wP (65 [88%] of 74) versus aP (59 [82%] of 72) vaccinees. At the same age, severe systemic reactions were reported among 14 (19%) of 74 infants after wP and 8 (11%) of 72 infants after aP. There were 7 SAEs among 5 participants within the first 6 months of follow-up; on blinded assessment, none were deemed to be related to the study vaccines. Parental acceptance of mixed and aP-only schedules was high (71 [97%] of 73 versus 69 [96%] of 72 would agree to have the same schedule again). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the aP-only schedule, the mixed schedule evoked noninferior PT-IgG responses, was associated with more severe reactions, but was well accepted by parents. Tetanus toxoid IgE responses did not differ across the study groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registered at the Australian and New Zealand Clinical 207 Trial Registry (ACTRN12617000065392p).

Predicting the causative pathogen among children with pneumonia using a causal Bayesian network.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death among young children worldwide, and the diagnostic challenge of differentiating bacterial from non-bacterial pneumonia is the main driver of antibiotic use for treating pneumonia in children. Causal Bayesian networks (BNs) serve as powerful tools for this problem as they provide clear maps of probabilistic relationships between variables and produce results in an explainable way by incorporating both domain expert knowledge and numerical data. METHODS: We used domain expert knowledge and data in combination and iteratively, to construct, parameterise and validate a causal BN to predict causative pathogens for childhood pneumonia. Expert knowledge elicitation occurred through a series of group workshops, surveys and one-on-one meetings involving 6-8 experts from diverse domain areas. The model performance was evaluated based on both quantitative metrics and qualitative expert validation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate how the target output is influenced by varying key assumptions of a particularly high degree of uncertainty around data or domain expert knowledge. RESULTS: Designed to apply to a cohort of children with X-ray confirmed pneumonia who presented to a tertiary paediatric hospital in Australia, the resulting BN offers explainable and quantitative predictions on a range of variables of interest, including the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia, detection of respiratory pathogens in the nasopharynx, and the clinical phenotype of a pneumonia episode. Satisfactory numeric performance has been achieved including an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8 in predicting clinically-confirmed bacterial pneumonia with sensitivity 88% and specificity 66% given certain input scenarios (i.e., information that is available and entered into the model) and trade-off preferences (i.e., relative weightings of the consequences of false positive versus false negative predictions). We specifically highlight that a desirable model output threshold for practical use is very dependent upon different input scenarios and trade-off preferences. Three commonly encountered scenarios were presented to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the BN outputs in various clinical pictures. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first causal model developed to help determine the causative pathogen for paediatric pneumonia. We have shown how the method works and how it would help decision making on the use of antibiotics, providing insight into how computational model predictions may be translated to actionable decisions in practice. We discussed key next steps including external validation, adaptation and implementation. Our model framework and the methodological approach can be adapted beyond our context to broad respiratory infections and geographical and healthcare settings.

Immunogenicity of a Third Scheduled Dose of Rotarix in Australian Indigenous Infants: A Phase IV, Double-blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Rotarix (GlaxoSmithKline) oral rotavirus vaccine is licensed as 2 doses in the first 6 months of life. In settings with high child mortality rates, clinical protection conferred by 2 doses of Rotarix is reduced. We assessed vaccine immune response when an additional dose of Rotarix was given to Australian Aboriginal children 6 to <12 months old. METHODS: ORVAC is a 2-stage, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Australian Aboriginal children 6 to <12 months old who had received 1 or 2 prior doses of Rotarix rotavirus vaccine were randomized 1:1 to receive an additional dose of Rotarix or matched placebo. The primary immunological end point was seroresponse defined as an anti-rotavirus immunoglobulin A level ≥20 AU/mL, 28-56 days after the additional dose of Rotarix or placebo. RESULTS: Between March 2018 and August 2020, a total of 253 infants were enrolled. Of these, 178 infants (70%) had analyzable serological results after follow-up; 89 were randomized to receive Rotarix, and 89 to receive placebo. The proportion with seroresponse was 85% after Rotarix compared with 72% after placebo. There were no occurrences of intussusception or any serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: An additional dose of Rotarix administered to Australian Aboriginal infants 6 to <12 months old increased the proportion with a vaccine seroresponse. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02941107.

The Politics of School Reopening During COVID-19: A Multiple Case Study of Five Urban Districts in the 2020-21 School Year.

Purpose: Nearly all schools in the United States closed in spring 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze traditional public and charter school reopenings for the 2020-21 school year in five urban districts. We provide a rich and theoretically grounded description of how and why educational leaders made reopening decisions in each of our case districts. Research Methods: We used data from a multiple-case study from March 2020 to July 2021. The research team conducted 56 interviews with school, district, and system-level leaders; triangulated with publicly available data; and also drew on interview data from a subsample of parents and guardians in each of our sites. We analyzed these data through qualitative coding and memo writing and conducted detailed single- and cross-case analyses. Findings: School system leaders in our case sites generally consulted public health authorities, accounted for state-level health and educational guidance, and engaged with and were responsive to the interests of different stakeholders. Districts' adherence to and strategic uses of public health guidance, as well as a combination of union-district relations and labor market dynamics, influenced reopening. Parents, city, and state lawmakers, and local institutional conditions also played a role, helping to explain differences across cases. Implications: In contrast to the "politics or science" framing that has dominated research and public discourse on school reopening, we show that local pandemic conditions and local political dynamics both mattered and in fact were interrelated. Our findings have some implications for how educational leaders might navigate future crises.

The short term safety of COVID-19 vaccines in Australia: AusVaxSafety active surveillance, February - August 2021.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the short term safety of the COVID-19 vaccines Comirnaty (Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2) and Vaxzevria (AstraZeneca ChAdOx1) in Australia. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study; online surveys by AusVaxSafety, a national active vaccine safety surveillance system, three and eight days after vaccination. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: People aged 16 years or more who received COVID-19 vaccines at sentinel vaccination hubs, general practices, or Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation clinics, 22 February - 30 August 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome: proportion of respondents who reported any adverse event following immunisation (AEFI) 0-3 days after vaccination. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: proportions of respondents who reported specific adverse events or medical review for AEFI within seven days of vaccination; impact on usual daily activities; recovery. RESULTS: 4 851 480 people received COVID-19 vaccines at participating sentinel sites during the study period (25% of all COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in Australia to 30 August 2021). 3 035 983 people responded to both surveys (response rate, 62.6%); 35.9% of respondents reported one or more AEFI 0-3 days after Comirnaty dose 1, 54.7% after Comirnaty dose 2, 52.8% after Vaxzevria dose 1, and 22.0% after Vaxzevria dose 2. Local pain, fatigue, headache, and myalgia were the most frequently reported symptoms. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, vaccination site type, jurisdiction, and self-reported medical conditions, the odds of reporting any AEFI were higher for women than men (range of adjusted odd ratios [aORs], by vaccine and dose, 1.53-1.84), for people with a history of anaphylaxis (aOR range, 1.28-1.45), and for people reporting certain underlying conditions, including obesity (aOR range, 1.15-1.75), immunodeficiency (aOR range, 1.04-2.24), or chronic inflammatory disease (aOR range, 1.05-1.75). 0.9% of respondents sought medical advice in the three days following vaccination, most frequently after Comirnaty dose 2 (1.4%) and Vaxzevria dose 1 (1.2%). CONCLUSION: AusVaxSafety active surveillance affirms the short term safety profile of Comirnaty and Vaxzevria vaccines in a large population sample during the first six months of the Australian COVID-19 vaccination program.

Genome-wide association study of offspring birth weight in 86 577 women identifies five novel loci and highlights maternal genetic effects that are independent of fetal genetics.

Genome-wide association studies of birth weight have focused on fetal genetics, whereas relatively little is known about the role of maternal genetic variation. We aimed to identify maternal genetic variants associated with birth weight that could highlight potentially relevant maternal determinants of fetal growth. We meta-analysed data on up to 8.7 million SNPs in up to 86 577 women of European descent from the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) Consortium and the UK Biobank. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) and analyses of mother-child pairs to quantify the separate maternal and fetal genetic effects. Maternal SNPs at 10 loci (MTNR1B, HMGA2, SH2B3, KCNAB1, L3MBTL3, GCK, EBF1, TCF7L2, ACTL9, CYP3A7) were associated with offspring birth weight at P < 5 × 10-8. In SEM analyses, at least 7 of the 10 associations were consistent with effects of the maternal genotype acting via the intrauterine environment, rather than via effects of shared alleles with the fetus. Variants, or correlated proxies, at many of the loci had been previously associated with adult traits, including fasting glucose (MTNR1B, GCK and TCF7L2) and sex hormone levels (CYP3A7), and one (EBF1) with gestational duration. The identified associations indicate that genetic effects on maternal glucose, cytochrome P450 activity and gestational duration, and potentially on maternal blood pressure and immune function, are relevant for fetal growth. Further characterization of these associations in mechanistic and causal analyses will enhance understanding of the potentially modifiable maternal determinants of fetal growth, with the goal of reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with low and high birth weights.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies three new susceptibility loci for childhood body mass index.

A large number of genetic loci are associated with adult body mass index. However, the genetics of childhood body mass index are largely unknown. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of childhood body mass index, using sex- and age-adjusted standard deviation scores. We included 35 668 children from 20 studies in the discovery phase and 11 873 children from 13 studies in the replication phase. In total, 15 loci reached genome-wide significance (P-value < 5 × 10(-8)) in the joint discovery and replication analysis, of which 12 are previously identified loci in or close to ADCY3, GNPDA2, TMEM18, SEC16B, FAIM2, FTO, TFAP2B, TNNI3K, MC4R, GPR61, LMX1B and OLFM4 associated with adult body mass index or childhood obesity. We identified three novel loci: rs13253111 near ELP3, rs8092503 near RAB27B and rs13387838 near ADAM23. Per additional risk allele, body mass index increased 0.04 Standard Deviation Score (SDS) [Standard Error (SE) 0.007], 0.05 SDS (SE 0.008) and 0.14 SDS (SE 0.025), for rs13253111, rs8092503 and rs13387838, respectively. A genetic risk score combining all 15 SNPs showed that each additional average risk allele was associated with a 0.073 SDS (SE 0.011, P-value = 3.12 × 10(-10)) increase in childhood body mass index in a population of 1955 children. This risk score explained 2% of the variance in childhood body mass index. This study highlights the shared genetic background between childhood and adult body mass index and adds three novel loci. These loci likely represent age-related differences in strength of the associations with body mass index.

Regular exercise improves the well-being of parents of children with cancer.

AIM: Parents of children with cancer describe impaired physical and social functioning, sleep disturbance and poor mental health. Exercise-related interventions impact positively on these quality of life domains, but have not been examined in this population. The aim of this longitudinal pilot study was to explore the feasibility of a 12-week pedometer-monitored walking intervention among parents of children with cancer, assessing adherence to a set activity target of 70,000 steps per week, and to explore the benefits of physical activity on mental and physical health. METHODS: Parents were provided with a pedometer and requested to achieve a daily step count of 10,000 steps per day for 12 weeks. Mood, well-being and psychological distress were examined using validated questionnaires (Profile of Mood States 2nd edition [POMS-2], Distress Thermometer for Parents [DT-P] and Depression Anxiety Stress Scales [DASS-42]) at baseline, midpoint (6 weeks) and endpoint (12 weeks) to identify changes in these domains with increased activity. RESULTS: Fifteen parents were recruited. The majority increased their counts during the first 4 weeks of the study and maintained this to week 8 (n = 12). Time-dependent improvements were identified in the following psychometric test outcomes at week 12: DT-P score (likelihood ratio test [LRT] P = 0.02), POMS-2 total mood disturbance (LRT P = 0.03), fatigue inertia (LRT P = 0.009), tension anxiety (LRT P = 0.007) and vigour activity (LRT P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Mental health benefits of a pedometer-based exercise intervention for parents of children with cancer were identified. Such programs should be included in a holistic approach to improve the psychological outcomes of parents whose children are receiving treatment for cancer.

Childhood adiposity trajectories and risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in adolescents.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its metabolic risk factors are recognized during childhood and adolescence. Identification of adolescents at risk of NAFLD from childhood anthropometry may expose opportunities to influence the hepatic and metabolic destinies of individuals. We sought associations between NAFLD diagnosed during adolescence and earlier life trajectories of anthropometry, in a population-based cohort of predominantly Caucasian adolescents. METHODS: Assessment for NAFLD, using questionnaires and liver ultrasound, was performed on 1170 adolescents, aged 17 years, from the population-based Raine cohort. We sought associations between NAFLD in adolescents and serial anthropometric measurements recorded from birth, childhood, and adolescence. RESULTS: NAFLD was diagnosed in 15.2% of adolescents. Birth anthropometry, including birth weight, skinfold thickness, and ponderal index, was not associated with NAFLD. However, adiposity differences between 17-year-old adolescents with NAFLD and those without NAFLD were apparent from age 3 years. Greater adiposity trajectories for weight, body mass index, skinfold thickness, mid-arm circumference, and chest circumference from age 3 years onwards, particularly in males, were associated with the diagnosis of NAFLD and severity of hepatic steatosis at age 17 years (P < 0.05). The strength of the associations increased with age after 3 years for each adiposity measure (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Trajectories of childhood adiposity are associated with NAFLD. Adiposity attained by 3 years of age and older, but not at birth, was associated with the diagnosis and severity of hepatic steatosis in late adolescence. Exploration of clinically relevant risk factors and preventative measures for NAFLD should begin during childhood.

Association between liver-specific gene polymorphisms and their expression levels with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

UNLABELLED: Genetic factors account for a significant proportion of the phenotypic variance of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD); however, very few predisposing genes have been identified. We aimed to (1) identify novel genetic associations with NAFLD by performing a genome-wide association study (GWAS), and (2) examine the biological expression of the strongest genetic associations in a separate cohort. We performed GWAS of a population-based cohort (Raine Study) of 928 adolescents assessed for NAFLD by ultrasound at age 17. Expression of genes with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were associated with NAFLD at a significance level of P < 10(-5) was examined in adults with NAFLD and controls by quantifying hepatic messenger RNA (mRNA) expression and serum levels of protein. After adjustment for sex and degree of adiposity, SNPs in two genes expressed in liver were associated with NAFLD adolescents: group-specific component (GC) (odds ratio [OR], 2.54; P = 1.20 × 10(-6)) and lymphocyte cytosolic protein-1 (LCP1) (OR, 3.29; P = 2.96 × 10(-6)). SNPs in two genes expressed in neurons were also associated with NAFLD: lipid phosphate phosphatase-related protein type 4 (LPPR4) (OR, 2.30; P = 4.82 × 10(-6)) and solute carrier family 38 member 8 (SLC38A8) (OR, 3.14; P = 1.86 × 10(-6) ). Hepatic GC mRNA was significantly reduced (by 83%) and LCP1 mRNA was increased (by 300%) in liver biopsy samples from patients with NAFLD compared to controls (P < 0.05). Mean serum levels of GC protein were significantly lower in patients with NAFLD than controls (250 ± 90 versus 298 ± 90, respectively; P = 0.004); GC protein levels decreased with increasing severity of hepatic steatosis (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The association between GC and LCP1 SNPs and NAFLD as well as altered biological expression implicate these genes in the pathogenesis of NAFLD.

Early infant feeding and adiposity risk: from infancy to adulthood.

INTRODUCTION: Systematic reviews suggest that a longer duration of breast-feeding is associated with a reduction in the risk of later overweight and obesity. Most studies examining breast-feeding in relation to adiposity have not used longitudinal analysis. In our study, we aimed to examine early infant feeding and adiposity risk in a longitudinal cohort from birth to young adulthood using new as well as published data. METHODS: Data from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study in Perth, W.A., Australia, were used to examine associations between breast-feeding and measures of adiposity at 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 14, 17, and 20 years. RESULTS: Breast-feeding was measured in a number of ways. Longer breast-feeding (in months) was associated with reductions in weight z-scores between birth and 1 year (ß = -0.027; p < 0.001) in the adjusted analysis. At 3 years, breast-feeding for <4 months increased the odds of infants experiencing early rapid growth (OR 2.05; 95% CI 1.43-2.94; p < 0.001). From 1 to 8 years, children breast-fed for ≤4 months compared to ≥12 months had a significantly greater probability of exceeding the 95th percentile of weight. The age at which breast-feeding was stopped and a milk other than breast milk was introduced (introduction of formula milk) played a significant role in the trajectory of the BMI from birth to 14 years; the 4-month cutoff point was consistently associated with a higher BMI trajectory. Introduction of a milk other than breast milk before 6 months compared to at 6 months or later was a risk factor for being overweight or obese at 20 years of age (OR 1.47; 95% CI 1.12-1.93; p = 0.005). DISCUSSION: Breast-feeding until 6 months of age and beyond should be encouraged and is recommended for protection against increased adiposity in childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood. Adverse long-term effects of early growth acceleration are fundamental in later overweight and obesity. Formula feeding stimulates a higher postnatal growth velocity, whereas breast-feeding promotes slower growth and a reduced likelihood of overweight and obesity. Biological mechanisms underlying the protective effect of breast-feeding against obesity are based on the unique composition and metabolic and physiological responses to human milk.

The AuTOMATIC trial: a study protocol for a multi-arm Bayesian adaptive randomised controlled trial of text messaging to improve childhood immunisation coverage.

BACKGROUND: While most Australian children are vaccinated, delays in vaccination can put them at risk from preventable infections. Widespread mobile phone ownership in Australia could allow automated short message service (SMS) reminders to be used as a low-cost strategy to effectively 'nudge' parents towards vaccinating their children on time. METHODS: AuTOMATIC is an adaptive randomised trial which aims to both evaluate and optimise the use of SMS reminders for improving the timely vaccination of children at primary care clinics across Australia. The trial will utilise high levels of digital automation to effect, including eligibility assessment, randomisation, delivery of intervention, data extraction and analysis, thereby allowing healthcare-embedded trial delivery. Up to 10,000 parents attending participating primary care clinics will be randomised to one of 12 different active SMS vaccine reminder content and timing arms or usual practice only (no SMS reminder). The primary outcome is vaccine receipt within 28 days of the scheduled date for the index vaccine (the first scheduled vaccine after randomisation). Secondary analyses will assess receipt and timeliness for all vaccine occasions in all children. Regular scheduled analyses will be performed using Bayesian inference and pre-specified trial decision rules, enabling response adaptive randomisation, suspension of any poorly performing arms and early stopping if a single best message is identified. DISCUSSION: This study will aim to optimise SMS reminders for childhood vaccination in primary care clinics, directly comparing alternative message framing and message timing. We anticipate that the trial will be an exemplar in using Bayesian adaptive methodology to assess a readily implementable strategy in a wide population, capable of delivery due to the levels of digital automation. Methods and findings from this study will help to inform strategies for implementing reminders and embedding analytics in primary health care settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR: ACTRN12618000789268 .

FeBRILe3: Safety Evaluation of Febrile Infant Guidelines Through Prospective Bayesian Monitoring.

OBJECTIVES: Despite evidence supporting earlier discharge of well-appearing febrile infants at low risk of serious bacterial infection (SBI), admissions for ≥48 hours remain common. Prospective safety monitoring may support broader guideline implementation. METHODS: A sequential Bayesian safety monitoring framework was used to evaluate a new hospital guideline recommending early discharge of low-risk infants. Hospital readmissions within 7 days of discharge were regularly assessed against safety thresholds, derived from historic rates and expert opinion, and specified a priori (8 per 100 infants). Infants aged under 3 months admitted to 2 Western Australian metropolitan hospitals for management of fever without source were enrolled (August 2019-December 2021), to a prespecified maximum 500 enrolments. RESULTS: Readmission rates remained below the prespecified threshold at all scheduled analyses. Median corrected age was 34 days, and 14% met low-risk criteria (n = 71). SBI was diagnosed in 159 infants (32%), including urinary tract infection (n = 140) and bacteraemia (n = 18). Discharge occurred before 48 hours for 192 infants (38%), including 52% deemed low-risk. At study completion, 1 of 37 low-risk infants discharged before 48 hours had been readmitted (3%), for issues unrelated to SBI diagnosis. In total, 20 readmissions were identified (4 per 100 infants; 95% credible interval 3, 6), with >0.99 posterior probability of being below the prespecified noninferiority threshold, indicating acceptable safety. CONCLUSIONS: A Bayesian monitoring approach supported safe early discharge for many infants, without increased risk of readmission. This framework may be used to embed safety evaluations within future guideline implementation programs to further reduce low-value care.

A blueprint for a multi-disease, multi-domain Bayesian adaptive platform trial incorporating adult and paediatric subgroups: the Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform trial.

The Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial is a multifactorial Bayesian adaptive platform trial that aims to improve the way that S. aureus bloodstream infection, a globally common and severe infectious disease, is treated. In a world first, the SNAP trial will simultaneously investigate the effects of multiple intervention modalities within multiple groups of participants with different forms of S. aureus bloodstream infection. Here, we formalise the trial structure, modelling approach, and decision rules that will be used for the SNAP trial. By summarising the statistical principles governing the design, our hope is that the SNAP trial will serve as an adaptable template that can be used to improve comparative effectiveness research efficiency in other disease areas.Trial registration NCT05137119 . Registered on 30 November 2021.

A Randomized Trial of Nafamostat for Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Nafamostat mesylate is a potent in vitro antiviral agent that inhibits the host transmembrane protease serine 2 enzyme used by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 for cell entry. METHODS: This open-label, pragmatic, randomized clinical trial in Australia, New Zealand, and Nepal included noncritically ill hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Participants were randomly assigned to usual care or usual care plus nafamostat. The primary end point was death (any cause) or receipt of new invasive or noninvasive ventilation or vasopressor support within 28 days after randomization. Analysis was with a Bayesian logistic model in which an adjusted odds ratio <1.0 indicates improved outcomes with nafamostat. Enrollment was closed due to falling numbers of eligible patients. RESULTS: We screened 647 patients in 21 hospitals (15 in Australia, 4 in New Zealand, and 2 in Nepal) and enrolled 160 participants from May 2021 to August 2022. In the intention-to-treat population, the primary end point occurred in 8 (11%) of 73 patients with usual care and 4 (5%) of 82 with nafamostat. The median adjusted odds ratio for the primary end point for nafamostat was 0.40 (95% credible interval, 0.12 to 1.34) with a posterior probability of effectiveness (adjusted odds ratio <1.0) of 93%. For usual care compared with nafamostat, hyperkalemia occurred in 1 (1%) of 67 and 7 (9%) of 78 participants, respectively, and clinically relevant bleeding occurred in 1 (1%) of 73 and 7 (8%) of 82 participants. CONCLUSIONS: Among hospitalized patients with Covid-19, there was a 93% posterior probability that nafamostat reduced the odds of death or organ support. Prespecified stopping criteria were not met, precluding definitive conclusions. Hyperkalemia and bleeding were more common with nafamostat. (Funded by ASCOT and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04483960.)

Cholesteryl ester transfer protein gene polymorphisms increase the risk of fatty liver in females independent of adiposity.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Environmental factors including excessive caloric intake lead to disordered lipid metabolism and fatty liver disease (FLD). However, FLD demonstrates heritability suggesting genetic factors are also important. We aimed to use a candidate gene approach to examine the association between FLD and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in lipid metabolism genes in the adolescent population-based Western Australian Pregnancy (Raine) Cohort. METHODS: A total 951 seventeen year-olds underwent hepatic ultrasound, anthropometric and biochemical characterization, DNA extraction and genotyping for 57 SNPs in seven lipid metabolism genes (ApoB100, ATGL, ABHD5, MTTP, CETP, SREBP-1c, PPARα). Associations were adjusted for metabolic factors and Bonferroni corrected. RESULTS: The prevalence of FLD was 16.2% (11.4% male vs 21.2% female, P=0.001). Multivariate analysis of metabolic factors found suprailiac skinfold thickness (SST) to be the major predictor of FLD in females and males (odds ratio [OR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.15, P=1.7×10(-10) and OR 1.17, 95%CI 1.13-1.22, P=2.4×10(-11) , respectively). In females, two SNPs in linkage disequilibrium from the CETP gene were associated with FLD: rs12447924 (OR 2.16, 95%CI 1.42-3.32, P=0.0003) and rs12597002 (OR=2.22, 95%CI 1.46-3.41 P=0.0002). In lean homozygotes, the probability of FLD was over 30%, compared with 10-15% in lean heterozygotes and 3-5% in lean wild-types. However, these associations were modified by SST, such that for obese individuals, the probability of FLD was over 30% in all genotype groups. CONCLUSIONS: Cholesteryl ester transfer protein gene polymorphisms are associated with an increased risk of FLD in adolescent females. The effect is independent of adiposity in homozygotes, thereby placing lean individuals at a significant risk of FLD.

Social Construction Is Racial Construction: Examining the Target Populations in School-Choice Policies.

Purpose: We examine policy influencers' perceptions of the targets of school-choice policy across five states, exploring how constructions varied for White and racially minoritized families, whether policy actors conceived of the "target" of policy as the child or the parent, and how these racialized constructions varied across different types of school-choice policies. Research Methods/Approach: We conducted 56 semistructured interviews in 2019 with state-level stakeholders across five states. Findings: We found that policy actors generally viewed White families as strong and racially minoritized families as weak. However, for both groups, we found variation in whether these constructions were positive or negative and differences between students and parents. We find that social constructions are fluid, with varying, sometimes conflicting and contradictory views of racially minoritized and White parents in the same period, within the same state context. Despite the salience of race throughout social constructions of the target population, policy actors primarily used color-evasive references. In general, we found little variation in policy components at the state level. Implications: Our work demonstrates how racialized social constructions matter for equity in school-choice policy, with implications for local, state, and federal policy and for future research.

Statistical analysis plan for the OPTIMUM study: optimising immunisation using mixed schedules, an adaptive randomised controlled trial of a mixed whole-cell/acellular pertussis vaccine schedule.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this double-blind, randomised, controlled trial is to compare allergic outcomes in children following vaccination with acellular pertussis (aP) antigen (standard of care in Australia) given at 2 months of age versus whole cell pertussis (wP) in the infant vaccine schedule. PARTICIPANTS: Up to 3000 Australian infants 6 to <12 weeks of age born ≥32 weeks gestation. INTERVENTIONS: The intervention is a wP containing vaccine as the first scheduled pertussis vaccine dose instead of an aP containing vaccine. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is a binary indicator of history of IgE-mediated food allergy at the age of 12 months confirmed, where necessary, with an oral food challenge before 18 months of age. Secondary outcomes include (1) history of parent-reported clinician-diagnosed new onset of atopic dermatitis by 6 or 12 months of age with a positive skin prick test to any allergen before 12 months of age, (2) geometric mean concentration in pertussis toxin-specific IgG before and 21 to 35 days after a booster dose of aP at 18 months of age, and (3) sensitisation to at least one allergen by 12 months of age. RESULTS: Operating characteristics of trial decision rules were evaluated by trial simulation. The selected rules for success and futility approximately maintain type I error of 0.05 and achieved power 0.85 for a reduction in the primary outcome from 10% in the control group to 7% in the intervention group. DISCUSSION: A detailed, prospective statistical analysis plan (SAP) is presented for this Bayesian adaptive design. The plan was written by the trial statistician and details the study design, pre-specified adaptive elements, decision thresholds, statistical methods, and the simulations used to evaluate the operating characteristics of the trial. Application of this SAP will minimise bias and supports transparent and reproducible research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia & New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12617000065392 . Registered on 12 January 2017 STUDY PROTOCOL: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-042838.