Isotopic constraint on the twentieth-century increase in tropospheric ozone.

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a key component of air pollution and an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas1. During the twentieth century, the proliferation of the internal combustion engine, rapid industrialization and land-use change led to a global-scale increase in O3 concentrations2,3; however, the magnitude of this increase is uncertain. Atmospheric chemistry models typically predict4-7 an increase in the tropospheric O3 burden of between 25 and 50 per cent since 1900, whereas direct measurements made in the late nineteenth century indicate that surface O3 mixing ratios increased by up to 300 per cent8-10 over that time period. However, the accuracy and diagnostic power of these measurements remains controversial2. Here we use a record of the clumped-isotope composition of molecular oxygen (18O18O in O2) trapped in polar firn and ice from 1590 to 2016 AD, as well as atmospheric chemistry model simulations, to constrain changes in tropospheric O3 concentrations. We find that during the second half of the twentieth century, the proportion of 18O18O in O2 decreased by 0.03 ± 0.02 parts per thousand (95 per cent confidence interval) below its 1590-1958 AD mean, which implies that tropospheric O3 increased by less than 40 per cent during that time. These results corroborate model predictions of global-scale increases in surface pollution and vegetative stress caused by increasing anthropogenic emissions of O3 precursors4,5,11. We also estimate that the radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 since 1850 AD is probably less than +0.4 watts per square metre, consistent with results from recent climate modelling studies12.

Atmospheric trends and radiative forcings of CF4 and C2F6 inferred from firn air.

The atmospheric histories of two potent greenhouse gases, tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and hexafluoroethane (C2F6), have been reconstructed for the 20th century based on firn air measurements from both hemispheres. The reconstructed atmospheric trends show that the mixing ratios of both CF4 and C2F6 have increased during the 20th century by factors of approximately 2 and approximately 10, respectively. Initially, the increasing mixing ratios coincided with the rise in primary aluminum production. However, a slower atmospheric growth rate for CF4 appears to be evident during the 1990s, which supports recent aluminum industry reports of reduced CF4 emissions. This work illustrates the changing relationship between CF4 and C2F6 that is likely to be largely the result of both reduced emissions from the aluminum industry and faster growing emissions of C2F6 from the semiconductor industry. Measurements of C2F6 in the older firn air indicate a natural background mixing ratio of <0.3 parts per trillion (ppt), demonstrating that natural sources of this gas are negligible. However, CF4 was deduced to have a preindustrial mixing ratio of 34 -1 ppt (-50% of contemporary levels). This is in good agreement with the previous work of Harnisch et al. (18) and provides independent confirmation of their results. As a result of the large global warming potentials of CF4 and C2F6, these results have important implications for radiative forcing calculations. The radiative forcings of CF4 and C2F6 are shown to have increased over the past 50 years to values in 2001 of 4.1 x 10(-3) Wm(-2) and 7.5 x 10(-4) Wm(-2), respectively, relative to preindustrial concentrations. These forcings are small compared to present day forcings due to the major greenhouse gases but, if the current trends continue, they will continue to increase since both gases have essentially infinite lifetimes. There is, therefore, a large incentive to reduce perfluorocarbon emissions such that through the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, the atmospheric growth rates may decline in the future.