High-resolution characterization of the abiotic environment and disturbance regimes on the Great Barrier Reef, 1985-2017.

This data compilation synthesizes 36 static environmental and spatial variables, and temporally explicit modeled estimates of three major disturbances to coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): (1) coral bleaching, (2) tropical cyclones, and (3) outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster cf. solaris. Data are provided on a standardized grid (0.01° × 0.01° ~ 1 × 1 km) for reef locations along the GBR, containing 15,928 pixels and excluding the northernmost sections (<12° S) where empirical data were sparse. This compilation provides a consistent and high-resolution characterization of the abiotic environment and disturbance regimes for GBR reef locations at a fine spatial scale to be used in the development of complex ecosystem models. Static estimates of environmental variables (e.g., depth, bed shear stress, average temperature, temperature variation) originally developed by the Commonwealth of Australia's Environment Research Facility (CERF) Marine Biodiversity Hub were provided by Geoscience Australia. Annual (1985-2017) disturbance estimates were either interpolated from empirical data (A. cf. solaris), predicted from proxy indicators (e.g., degree heating weeks [DHW] as a proxy for bleaching severity), or explicitly modeled (e.g., wave height model for each cyclone). This data set synthesizes some of the most recent advances in remote sensing and modeling of environmental conditions on the GBR; yet it is not exhaustive and we highlight areas that should be expanded through future research. The characterization of abiotic and disturbance regimes presented here represent an essential tool for the development of complex regional scale models of the GBR; preventing redundancy between working groups and promoting collaboration, innovation, and consistency. When using the data set, we kindly request that you cite this article and/or the articles cited in the reference section, recognizing the work that went into compiling the data together and the original authors' willingness to make it publicly available.

Advancing projections of crown-of-thorns starfish to support management interventions.

Outbreaks of corallivorous Crown of Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster spp.; CoTS) cause substantial coral mortality throughout the Indo-Pacific, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Refining CoTS population density modelling and understanding the disparities between real-world observations and model predictions is crucial for developing effective control strategies. Using a spatially explicit ecosystem model of the GBR, we compared CoTS density model predictions to observations and incorporated a new zone-specific mortality rate to account for differences in predation of CoTS between fished and protected reefs. We found high congruence between predictions and observations: ∼81 % of categorical reef level CoTS densities matched or only differed by one category. However, underpredictions increased with higher observed densities. Zone-specific CoTS mortality reduced severe underpredictions from 7.1 % to 5.6 %, which is critical for managers as underpredictions indicate missing outbreaks where targeted culling is necessary, but also lead to underestimated coral loss attributed to CoTS outbreaks. Reef protection status affected prediction accuracy, highlighting the importance of further research on in situ CoTS mortality rates. The location of a reef inside or outside the "initiation box", a speculative area of primary outbreaks (i.e., initial abrupt population increases) on the GBR, also influenced accuracy, with exact predictions more likely outside. Accurately modelling initiation box dynamics is challenging due to limited empirical data on CoTS outbreaks, highlighting the need for focussed research on outbreak dynamics to enhance predictive accuracy. Spatial factors, such as region and shelf position, contributed to the variance between observations and predictions, underscoring the importance of the spatial-temporal context of each observation. Observations of CoTS can help refine model predictions, guide targeted control measures, and contribute to effective ecosystem management for the long-term resilience of the GBR and other reefs targeted by CoTS throughout the Indo-Pacific.

Real-time 3D tracking of swimming microbes using digital holographic microscopy and deep learning.

The three-dimensional swimming tracks of motile microorganisms can be used to identify their species, which holds promise for the rapid identification of bacterial pathogens. The tracks also provide detailed information on the cells' responses to external stimuli such as chemical gradients and physical objects. Digital holographic microscopy (DHM) is a well-established, but computationally intensive method for obtaining three-dimensional cell tracks from video microscopy data. We demonstrate that a common neural network (NN) accelerates the analysis of holographic data by an order of magnitude, enabling its use on single-board computers and in real time. We establish a heuristic relationship between the distance of a cell from the focal plane and the size of the bounding box assigned to it by the NN, allowing us to rapidly localise cells in three dimensions as they swim. This technique opens the possibility of providing real-time feedback in experiments, for example by monitoring and adapting the supply of nutrients to a microbial bioreactor in response to changes in the swimming phenotype of microbes, or for rapid identification of bacterial pathogens in drinking water or clinical samples.

Protecting Great Barrier Reef resilience through effective management of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks.

Resilience-based management is essential to protect ecosystems in the Anthropocene. Unlike large-scale climate threats to Great Barrier Reef (GBR) corals, outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) can be directly managed through targeted culling. Here, we evaluate the outcomes of a decade of strategic COTS management in suppressing outbreaks and protecting corals during the 4th COTS outbreak wave at reef and regional scales (sectors). We compare COTS density and coral cover dynamics during the 3rd and 4th outbreak waves. During the 4th outbreak wave, sectors that received limited to no culling had sustained COTS outbreaks causing significant coral losses. In contrast, in sectors that received timely and sufficient cull effort, coral cover increased substantially, and outbreaks were suppressed with COTS densities up to six-fold lower than in the 3rd outbreak wave. In the Townsville sector for example, despite exposure to comparable disturbance regimes during the 4th outbreak wave, effective outbreak suppression coincided with relative increases in sector-wide coral cover (44%), versus significant coral cover declines (37%) during the 3rd outbreak wave. Importantly, these estimated increases span entire sectors, not just reefs with active COTS control. Outbreaking reefs with higher levels of culling had net increases in coral cover, while the rate of coral loss was more than halved on reefs with lower levels of cull effort. Our results also indicate that outbreak wave progression to adjoining sectors has been delayed, probably via suppression of COTS larval supply. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive, targeted, and sustained COTS management can effectively suppress COTS outbreaks and deliver coral growth and recovery benefits at reef and sector-wide scales. The clear coral protection outcomes demonstrate the value of targeted manual culling as both a scalable intervention to mitigate COTS outbreaks, and a potent resilience-based management tool to "buy time" for coral reefs, protecting reef ecosystem functions and biodiversity as the climate changes.

Knowledge Gaps in the Biology, Ecology, and Management of the Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star Acanthaster sp. on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

AbstractCrown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are among the most studied coral reef organisms, owing to their propensity to undergo major population irruptions, which contribute to significant coral loss and reef degradation throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, there are still important knowledge gaps pertaining to the biology, ecology, and management of Acanthaster sp. Renewed efforts to advance understanding and management of Pacific crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) on Australia's Great Barrier Reef require explicit consideration of relevant and tractable knowledge gaps. Drawing on established horizon scanning methodologies, this study identified contemporary knowledge gaps by asking active and/or established crown-of-thorns sea star researchers to pose critical research questions that they believe should be addressed to improve the understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef. A total of 38 participants proposed 246 independent research questions, organized into 7 themes: feeding ecology, demography, distribution and abundance, predation, settlement, management, and environmental change. Questions were further assigned to 48 specific topics nested within the 7 themes. During this process, redundant questions were removed, which reduced the total number of distinct research questions to 172. Research questions posed were mostly related to themes of demography (46 questions) and management (48 questions). The dominant topics, meanwhile, were the incidence of population irruptions (16 questions), feeding ecology of larval sea stars (15 questions), effects of elevated water temperature on crown-of-thorns sea stars (13 questions), and predation on juveniles (12 questions). While the breadth of questions suggests that there is considerable research needed to improve understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef, the predominance of certain themes and topics suggests a major focus for new research while also providing a roadmap to guide future research efforts.

Spatial patterns of microbial communities across surface waters of the Great Barrier Reef.

Microorganisms are fundamental drivers of biogeochemical cycling, though their contribution to coral reef ecosystem functioning is poorly understood. Here, we infer predictors of bacterioplankton community dynamics across surface-waters of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) through a meta-analysis, combining microbial with environmental data from the eReefs platform. Nutrient dynamics and temperature explained 41.4% of inter-seasonal and cross-shelf variation in bacterial assemblages. Bacterial families OCS155, Cryomorphaceae, Flavobacteriaceae, Synechococcaceae and Rhodobacteraceae dominated inshore reefs and their relative abundances positively correlated with nutrient loads. In contrast, Prochlorococcaceae negatively correlated with nutrients and became increasingly dominant towards outershelf reefs. Cyanobacteria in Prochlorococcaceae and Synechococcaceae families occupy complementary cross-shelf biogeochemical niches; their abundance ratios representing a potential indicator of GBR nutrient levels. One Flavobacteriaceae-affiliated taxa was putatively identified as diagnostic for ecosystem degradation. Establishing microbial observatories along GBR environmental gradients will facilitate robust assessments of microbial contributions to reef health and inform tipping-points in reef condition.