Adaptive evolution of the tumour suppressor BRCA1 in humans and chimpanzees. Australian Breast Cancer Family Study.

Mutations in BRCA1 (ref. 1) confer an increased risk of female breast cancer. In a genome-wide scan of linkage disequilibrium (LD), a high level of LD was detected among microsatellite markers flanking BRCA1 (ref. 3), raising the prospect that positive natural selection may have acted on this gene. We have used the predictions of evolutionary genetic theory to investigate this further. Using phylogeny-based maximum likelihood analysis of the BRCA1 sequences from primates and other mammals, we found that the ratios of replacement to silent nucleotide substitutions on the human and chimpanzee lineages were not different from one another (P=0.8), were different from those of other primate lineages (P=0.004) and were greater than 1 (P=0.04). This is consistent with the historic occurrence of positive darwinian selection pressure on the BRCA1 protein in the human and chimpanzee lineages. Analysis of genetic variation in a sample of female Australians of Northern European origin showed evidence for Hardy-Weinberg (HW) disequilibrium at polymorphic sites in BRCA1, consistent with the possibility that natural selection is affecting genotype frequencies in modern Europeans. The clustering of between-species variation in the region of the gene encoding the RAD51-interaction domain of BRCA1 suggests the maintenance of genomic integrity as a possible target of selection.

Increased cancer risks for relatives of very early-onset breast cancer cases with and without BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Little is known regarding cancer risks for relatives of women with very early-onset breast cancer. METHODS: We studied 2208 parents and siblings of 504 unselected population-based Caucasian women with breast cancer diagnosed before age 35 years (103 from USA, 124 from Canada and 277 from Australia), 41 known to carry a mutation (24 in BRCA1, 16 in BRCA2 and one in both genes). Cancer-specific standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were estimated by comparing the number of affected relatives (50% verified overall) with that expected based on incidences specific for country, sex, age and year of birth. RESULTS: For relatives of carriers, the female breast cancer SIRs were 13.13 (95% CI 6.57-26.26) and 12.52 (5.21-30.07) for BRCA1 and BRCA2, respectively. The ovarian cancer SIR was 12.38 (3.1-49.51) for BRCA1 and the prostate cancer SIR was 18.55 (4.64-74.17) for BRCA2. For relatives of non-carriers, the SIRs for female breast, prostate, lung, brain and urinary cancers were 4.03 (2.91-5.93), 5.25 (2.50-11.01), 7.73 (4.74-12.62), 5.19 (2.33-11.54) and 4.35 (1.81-10.46), respectively. For non-carriers, the SIRs remained elevated and were statistically significant for breast and prostate cancer when based on verified cancers. CONCLUSION: First-degree relatives of women with very early-onset breast cancer are at increased risk of cancers not explained by BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations.

BRCA1 promoter deletions in young women with breast cancer and a strong family history: a population-based study.

Women diagnosed with breast cancer before the age of 40 years who have a strong family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer were selected from an Australian population-based case-control-family study for large deletion screening within the BRCA1 promoter. Deletions within the BRCA1 promoter region are usually not detected by the methods applied in routine clinical mutation detection strategies. Fifty-one of the 66 women (77%) who met our inclusion criteria were tested for promoter deletions using linkage disequilibrium analysis of two BRCA1 polymorphic sites (C/G1802 and Pro871Leu) and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. Two cases of BRCA1 promoter deletion involving exons 1A-2 and exons 1A-23 were detected. The morphology of the breast cancers arising in these women with BRCA1 promoter deletions was consistent with the morphology associated with other germline BRCA1 mutations. Large genomic deletions that involve the promoter regions of BRCA1 make up 20% (2/10) of all known BRCA1 mutations in this group of young women with a strong family history of breast and ovarian cancer. Our data support the inclusion of testing for large genomic alterations in the BRCA1 promoter region in routine clinical mutation detection within BRCA1.

Estrogen receptor polymorphism at codon 325 and risk of breast cancer in women before age forty.

BACKGROUND: The estrogen receptor (ER) protein is believed to play a role in the development and progression of breast cancer. In a previously published U.S. clinic-based study, a polymorphism in the ER gene (codon 325, CCC --> CCG) was found to be more common in 34 case subjects with a family history of breast cancer than in 154 case subjects without such a history (mean allele frequencies +/- standard error = 0.28+/-0.05 versus 0.11+/-0.02; P<.001). To determine whether this polymorphism is a risk factor for early-onset breast cancer, we conducted a population-based, case-control-family study in Australia. METHODS: Case subjects under the age of 40 years with a first primary breast cancer and control subjects, frequency-matched to the case subjects on the basis of age, and their relatives were interviewed to assess the family history of breast cancer. Polymorphism status of the ER gene was determined for 388 case subjects and 294 control subjects. All statistical tests were two-tailed. RESULTS: There was no association between ER gene polymorphism status and breast cancer, before or after adjustment for risk factors. There was no difference in allele frequencies between case subjects and control subjects (0.232+/-0.015 versus 0.209+/-0.017; P = .4) or between women with and without a family history of breast cancer (P = .3), irrespective of case-control status. The findings were not altered when different definitions of family history of breast cancer were used and when allele frequencies were adjusted for residence and country of birth. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that the ER codon 325 polymorphism is associated with breast cancer before the age of 40 years or with a family history of breast cancer, despite ample power to detect effects half the magnitude of those previously reported.

HRAS1 rare minisatellite alleles and breast cancer in Australian women under age forty years.

BACKGROUND: A recent meta-analysis of 23 studies supported the empirically derived hypothesis that women who lack one of the four common minisatellite alleles at the HRAS1 locus are at increased risk of breast cancer. These studies relied on visual sizing of alleles on electrophoretic gels and may have underreported rare alleles. We determined whether this hypothesis applied to early-onset breast cancer by using a new method to size minisatellite alleles. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, case-control-family study of 249 Australian women under 40 years old at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer and 234 randomly selected women, frequency matched for age. We sized HRAS1 minisatellite alleles with an Applied Biosystems model 373 automated DNA sequencer and GENESCAN(TM) software. All P values are two-sided. RESULTS: We found no association of rare alleles with breast cancer, before or after adjustment for risk factors and irrespective of how their effects were modeled (crude odds ratio = 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.071-1.53; P =.8). The rare allele frequency was 0. 173 (95% CI = 0.149-0.197), three times the pooled estimate of 0.058 (95% CI = 0.050-0.066) from previous studies (P<.001), and was similar for case subjects, 0.177 (95% CI = 0.143-0.221), and control subjects, 0.169 (95% CI = 0.135-0.203) (P =.7). CONCLUSION: There was no support for an association between rare HRAS1 alleles and the risk of early-onset breast cancer, despite 80% power to detect effects of the magnitude of those associations (1.7-fold) previously suggested. IMPLICATIONS: The question of whether cancer risk is associated with rare minisatellite HRAS1 alleles needs to be revisited with the use of new methods that have a greater ability to distinguish rare alleles from similarly sized common alleles.

CYP17 promoter polymorphism and breast cancer in Australian women under age forty years.

BACKGROUND: The cytochrome P450c17alpha enzyme functions in the steroid biosynthesis pathway, and altered endogenous steroid hormone levels have been reported to be associated with a T to C polymorphism in the 5' promoter region of the CYP17 gene. Because steroid hormone exposure is known to influence breast cancer risk, we conducted a population-based, case-control-family study to assess the relationship between the CYP17 promoter polymorphism and early-onset breast cancer. METHODS: Case subjects under 40 years of age at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer, population-sampled control subjects, and the relatives of both case and control subjects were interviewed to record family history of breast cancer and other risk factors. CYP17 genotype was determined in 369 case subjects, 284 control subjects, and 91 relatives of case subjects. Genotype distributions were compared by logistic regression, and cumulative risk was estimated by a modified segregation analysis. All statistical tests were two-tailed. RESULTS: Compared with the TT genotype (i.e., individuals homozygous for the T allele), the TC genotype was not associated with increased breast cancer risk (P: =.7). Compared with the TT and TC genotypes combined, the CC genotype was associated with a relative risk of 1. 81 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15-2.86; P: =.01) before adjustment for measured risk factors and 1.63 (95% CI = 1.00-2.64; P: =.05) after adjustment. There was an excess of CC genotypes in case subjects who had at least one affected first- or second-degree relative, compared with control subjects unstratified by family history of breast cancer (23% versus 11%; P: =.006), and these case subjects had a threefold to fourfold higher risk than women of other groups defined by genotype and family history of breast cancer. Analysis of breast cancer in first- and second-degree relatives of case subjects with the CC genotype, excluding two known carriers of a deleterious mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2, gave a relative hazard in women with the CC genotype of 3.48 (95% CI = 1.13-10.74; P: =.04), which is equivalent to a cumulative risk of 16% to age 70 years. CONCLUSIONS: The CC genotype may modify the effect of other familial risk factors for early-onset breast cancer.

Androgen receptor exon 1 CAG repeat length and breast cancer in women before age forty years.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a population-based, case-control-family study to determine whether androgen receptor (AR) exon 1 polymorphic CAG repeat length (CAGn) was a risk factor for early-onset breast cancer in the Australian population. METHODS: Case subjects under 40 years of age at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer and age-matched control subjects were interviewed to assess family history and other risk factors. AR CAGn length was determined for 368 case subjects and 284 control subjects. Distributions in the two groups were compared by linear and logistic regression, allowing adjustment for measured risk factors. All statistical tests were two-tailed. RESULTS: When analyzed as either a continuous or a dichotomous variable, there was no association between CAG, length and breast cancer risk, before or after adjustment for risk factors. Mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) CAGn lengths were 22.0 (21.8-22.2) for case subjects and 22.0 (21.7-22.3) for control subjects (P = .9). The frequency (95% CI) of alleles with 22 or more CAGn repeats was 0.531 (0.494-0.568) for case subjects and 0.507 (0.465-0.549) for control subjects (P = .4). After adjustment, the average effect on log OR (odds ratio) per allele was 0.16 (95% CI = -0.03 to 0.40; P = .2), and the effect of any allele was equivalent to an OR of 1.40 (95% CI = 0.94-2.09; P = .1). Stratification by family history also failed to reveal any association. Similar results were obtained when alleles were defined by other cutoff points. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence for an association between AR exon 1 CAGn length and breast cancer risk in women under the age of 40, despite having 80% power to detect modest effects.

Distinct molecular pathogeneses of early-onset breast cancers in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers: a population-based study.

Breast cancers arising in women with and without a germline mutation in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene display different histological features, which suggests unique mechanisms of molecular pathogenesis: We used a molecular pathological analysis to define the genetic abnormalities relevant to these specific pathogeneses. Tumor material was studied from 40 women with breast cancer diagnosed before 40 years of age, sampled from a population-based study and stratified by BRCA1 and BRCA2 germline mutation status. Cases were not selected for family history or ethnic origin, and none were known to be genetically related. Thus, germline mutation itself is likely to impact on the molecular pathogenesis of these tumors, with no substantial influence due to modifying genetic or environmental factors. Breast cancers occurring in BRCA1 mutation carriers had significantly higher levels of p53 expression, including the preinvasive (carcinoma in situ) stage of disease, compared with cancers occurring in BRCA2 mutation carriers or women with no detectable germline mutation. These cancers also had a higher proliferation rate as measured by Ki-67 antibody. Expression of the prognostic factors c-erbB-2, cyclin D1, and estrogen receptor was significantly less common in BRCA1 mutation carriers. Lower levels of cyclin D1 were also found in cancers from BRCA2 mutation carriers compared with non-mutation carriers. Direct p53 mutation analysis revealed mutations in 18% of all of the early-onset breast cancers within the study and included rare insertion and deletional mutations in cancers from BRCA1 mutation carriers. Our data indicate that a BRCA1 breast cancer phenotype may be recognized by an exceptionally high proliferation rate and early and frequent p53 overexpression but infrequent selection for overexpression of several other prognostic factor proteins known to be involved in breast oncogenesis. In contrast, breast cancers arising in BRCA2 mutation carriers have a more heterogeneous phenotypic profile.

Design and analysis issues in a population-based, case-control-family study of the genetic epidemiology of breast cancer and the Co-operative Family Registry for Breast Cancer Studies (CFRBCS).

BACKGROUND: Historically, studies of the "genetic epidemiology" of cancer have used nonsystematically sampled kindreds with numerous cases of cancer across multiple generations. From the epidemiologic viewpoint, it is difficult to extrapolate findings to the population because of the ad hoc ascertainment of these atypical, ill-defined families. Since 1992, we have been conducting a population-based, case-control-family study of breast cancer. METHODS: Families are identified through a single, population-sampled proband, who is either affected or unaffected, making adjustment for ascertainment straightforward. Administered questionnaires and blood samples are sought from cases, controls, and specified sets of relatives. From 1996 through 1999, a further 1200 case families have been recruited as part of the Co-operative Family Registry for Breast Cancer Studies (CFRBCS). Issues relevant to the study design and analysis are discussed. RESULTS: Epidemiologic and genetic findings published to date are summarized. In particular, this population-based study has shown that the so-called "high-risk" families containing multiple cases of breast cancer are not typical of families in the general population in which BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations are segregating. Most "hereditary" cancers are "sporadic." CONCLUSION: The collection of DNA, as well as data on disease status and risk factors, from population-sampled sets of relatives provides a powerful resource for addressing genetic and environmental determinants of cancer. A population-based multicenter, multidisciplinary enterprise, such as has been developed by the CFRBCS, may become a model for future research in cancer epidemiology, allowing genetic and environmental risk factors to be put into a proper population perspective.

Population-based estimate of the average age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer for a defined set of protein-truncating mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2. Australian Breast Cancer Family Study.

The average breast cancer risk for carriers of a germ-line mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2 (penetrance) has been estimated from the multiple-case families collected by the Breast Cancer Linkage Consortium (BCLC) to be approximately 80% to age 70. However, women now being tested for these mutations do not necessarily have the intense family history of the BCLC families. Testing for protein-truncating mutations in exons 2, 11, and 20 of BRCA1 and exons 10 and 11 of BRCA2 was conducted in a population-based sample of 388 Australian women with breast cancer diagnosed before age 40. Onset of breast cancer was analyzed in the known and potential mutation-carrying first- and second-degree female relatives of cases found to carry a mutation. Of the 18 mutation-carrying cases (9 BRCA1 and 9 BRCA2), only 5 (1 BRCA1 and 4 BRCA2) had at least one affected relative, so family history of breast cancer was not a strong predictor of mutation status in this setting. The risk in mutation carriers was, on average, 9 times the population risk [95% confidence interval (CI), 4-23; P < 0.001]. Penetrance to age 70 was 40% (95% CI, 15-65%), about half that estimated from BCLC families. By extrapolation, approximately 6% (95% CI, 2-20%) of breast cancer before age 40 may be caused by protein-truncating mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2. Breast cancer risk in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers may be modified by other genetic or environmental factors. Genetic counselors may need to take into account the family history of the consultand.

The steroid 5alpha-reductase type II TA repeat polymorphism is not associated with risk of breast or ovarian cancer in Australian women.

The enzyme 5alpha-reductase type II (SRD5A2) converts testosterone to its more active form 5alpha-dihydroxytestosterone. The 3' untranslated region of the gene contains a (TA)(n) length polymorphism. The (TA)(9) allele has been reported to be associated with higher serum prostate-specific antigen levels in breast tumors and lower risk of relapse in breast cancer patients and more recently has also been reported to be linked to the codon 89 valine variant, which is itself associated with higher serum prostate-specific antigen levels in breast tumors and a more favorable breast cancer prognosis. We investigated whether the SRD5A2 (TA)(n) polymorphism was associated with risk of breast or ovarian cancer in Australian women by studying 946 breast cancer cases and 509 age-matched controls, and 544 ovarian cancer cases and 298 controls of similar age distribution. The (TA)(9) allele frequency was similar in breast cancer cases (0.110), breast cancer controls (0.125), ovarian cancer cases (0.106), and ovarian cancer controls (0.117). There was no difference in genotype distribution between breast cancer cases and controls (P = 0.5), ovarian cancer cases and controls (P = 0.7), or between the two control groups (P = 0.9). Genotypes containing at least one (TA)(9) allele were not significantly associated with risk of breast cancer overall (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-1.12; P = 0.3) or in women stratified by age, menopausal status, or family history. Similarly, the (TA)(9) allele was not associated with risk of ovarian cancer (odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.23; P = 0.4) or with ovarian tumor behavior (invasive or low malignant potential), histology, stage, or grade. Given that this study had sufficient power to detect altered risks in the order of 1.4- to 1.7-fold, our results suggest that the SRD5A2 (TA)(9) allele is unlikely to be associated with moderate alterations in breast or ovarian cancer risk.

Morphologic typing of papillary renal cell carcinoma: comparison of growth kinetics and patient survival in 66 cases.

Whereas papillary renal cell carcinoma is now established as a subtype of renal cell neoplasia, division of these tumors into 2 distinctive morphotypes has been proposed. Type 1 tumors have cells with scanty pale cytoplasm arranged in a single layer on the basement membrane of papillary cores. In these tumors, psammoma bodies and foamy macrophages are frequently seen, and the tumors frequently express cytokeratin 7. Type 2 tumor cells have pseudostratified nuclei and usually have voluminous eosinophilic cytoplasm. Recent studies have supported this subclassification of papillary renal cell carcinoma by demonstrating differing genotypes for type 1 and 2 tumors. To further study the subclassification of papillary renal carcinoma, we compared clinical features, nuclear grade, stage, tumor growth kinetics, and survival in a series of 50 type 1 and 16 type 2 papillary renal cell carcinomas. Comparison of patient age at presentation, sex, and primary tumor size shows no significant difference between the 2 tumor types. Type 1 tumors were of significantly lower Fuhrman grade (P =.0001) and higher Robson stage (P =.009) than type 2 tumors. There was no significant difference when tumors were staged according to the TNM classification. Assessment of tumor growth kinetics showed significantly different mean silver-staining nucleolar organizer region (AgNOR) scores and Ki-67 indices (AgNOR type 1, 3.83, type 2, 7.24, P =.0001; Ki-67 type 1, 3.17%, type 2, 6.01%, P =.0002). Multivariate analysis showed tumor type (P =.03), presence of metastases (P =.04), AgNOR score (P =.001), and Ki-67 index (P =.03) to be independently associated with survival. These results provide evidence of the clinical utility of dividing papillary renal cell carcinomas into 2 types according to histologic characteristics.

Prevalence of self-reported arm morbidity following treatment for breast cancer in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study.

Population-based women (n=1049) with breast cancer diagnosed mainly between 1996 and 1998, when aged 20-59 years, were mailed a questionnaire seeking information about self-reported shoulder stiffness and swelling, numbness and pain/ache in the arm following treatment (excluding 6 months from diagnosis). Of the 809 who completed the survey, approximately seven in eight experienced at least one symptom, one in six reported all four symptoms, and one in three considered that their arm morbidity interfered substantially with activities of daily living. Arm swelling occurred at some time in 39% of women, was present in 20% 1 year, and in 29% 4 years, after diagnosis. The prevalence of arm swelling was higher in women with axillary node dissection (OR=2.4; 95% Cl 1.0-5.6), and was increased in a women with a higher body mass index (P=0.02) and less education (P=0.01), but was not related to age, number of nodes excised or self-reports of radiation or type of surgery.

Geographic, ethnic, age-related and temporal variation in the incidence of end-stage renal disease in Europe, Canada and the Asia-Pacific region, 1998-2002.

BACKGROUND: Only unbiased estimates of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence and trends are useful for disease control-identification of risk factors and measuring the effect of intervention. METHODS: Age- and sex-standardized incidences (with trends) were calculated for all-cause and diabetic/non-diabetic ESRD for persons aged 0-14, 15-29, 30-44 and 45-64 years in 13 populations identified geographically, and six populations identified by ethnicity. RESULTS: The incidence of ESRD varied most with age, ethnicity and prevalence of diabetes. All non-Europid populations had excess ESRD, chiefly due to rates of type 2 diabetic ESRD that were greater than accounted for by community prevalences of diabetes. Their rates of non-diabetic ESRD also were raised, with contributions from most common primary renal diseases except type 1 diabetic nephropathy and polycystic kidney disease. The ESRD rates generally were low, and more similar than different, in Europid populations, except for variable contributions from type 1 (high in Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Canada) and type 2 (high in Austria and Canada) diabetes. In Europid populations during 1998-2002, all-cause ESRD declined by 2% per year in persons aged 0-44 years, and all non-diabetic ESRD by a similar amount in persons aged 45-64 years, in whom diabetic ESRD had increased by 3% per year. CONCLUSIONS: Increased susceptibility to type 2 diabetes and to kidney disease progression characterizes excess ESRD in non-Europid peoples. The decline in all-cause ESRD in young persons, and non-diabetic ESRD in the middle-aged, probably reflects improving management of progressive renal disease.

Divergent trends in the incidence of end-stage renal disease due to Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes in Europe, Canada and Australia during 1998-2002.

AIMS: To describe the variation in geographical distribution of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) due to Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, and to calculate recent trends in incidence in predominantly white populations. METHODS: Estimation of age- and sex-standardized incidence of ESRD by type of diabetes, and temporal trends, in population-based data for persons aged 30-44, 45-54 or 55-64 years newly treated for ESRD during 1998-2002 in eight countries or regions of Europe, and Non-Indigenous Canadians and Australians. RESULTS: The incidence of ESRD due to Type 1 diabetes at age 30-44 years correlated with published rates of childhood-onset insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (P = 0.0025). ESRD due to Type 2 diabetes was uncommon before 45 years of age; in older persons, the highest rates (in Canada and Austria) were five times the lowest rates (in Norway and the Basque region). Rates of ESRD due to Type 1 diabetes fell, per year, by 6.4%[95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1-10.6%) in persons aged 30-44 years, and by 7.7% (95% CI: 2.4-12.7%] in those aged 45-54 years. In contrast, rates of ESRD due to Type 2 diabetes increased annually by 16% (95% CI: 5-28%) in the 30-44-year age group, 11% (95% CI: 6-16%) at 45-54 years, and 9% (95% CI: 5-14%) at 55-64 years. CONCLUSIONS: Modern prevention has reduced progression of nephropathy to ESRD due to Type 1 diabetes, but the continuing rise of ESRD due to Type 2 diabetes represents a failure of current disease control measures that has serious public health implications.

Morphologic evidence that analgesic-induced kidney pathology contributes to the progression of tumors of the renal pelvis.

BACKGROUND: Whether phenacetin-containing analgesics cause renal pelvic tumors by virtue of the weak mutagenicity of phenacetin, or indirectly through local effects of analgesic-induced renal papillary scarring, is debated. Because phenacetin consumption ceased in New South Wales, Australia in 1975, cases of renal pelvic carcinoma seen 14-15 years later (many of which were associated with long-standing analgesic-induced renal papillary pathology) provided an opportunity to examine the temporal relation between phenacetin exposure and those histologic characteristics of the tumors and adjacent renal tissue that may implicate analgesics in their etiology. METHODS: The authors conducted a "blinded" histopathologic review of tumors of the renal pelvis and adjacent noncancerous renal tissue from 100 cases for which epidemiologic data regarding risk factor exposure (specifically phenacetin-containing analgesics, tobacco, infection, and kidney stones) had been obtained in a population-based case-control study from New South Wales in 1989 and 1990. RESULTS: A history of consumption of phenacetin-containing analgesics was associated strongly with the presence and severity of diffuse renal papillary scarring, and less strongly with papillary calcification. The histologic grade of the renal pelvic tumors tended to rise significantly with consumption of phenacetin-containing analgesics in a dose-dependent fashion and with the degree of papillary scarring, but was not related to smoking. In multivariate analysis it was the degree of papillary scarring (to a greater extent than the amount of phenacetin consumption) that was associated significantly and strongly with a higher histologic grade. Only diffuse papillary calcification was associated significantly with squamous change in the renal pelvic tumors. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of the current study, the authors conclude that 1) in phenacetin-related tumors of the renal pelvis, the presence and severity of analgesic-induced renal papillary scarring correlates with tumor progression and 2) papillary calcification is a risk factor for squamous change in renal pelvic urothelioma.

A controlled evaluation of diagnostic criteria in the development of a rheumatology expert system.

As an intermediate stage in the development of an expert system to support undergraduate teaching in rheumatology, a decision tree incorporating the diagnostic criteria to be used in the expert system was produced by a team of rheumatologists. In a controlled trial, 119 final-year medical students each diagnosed 10 rheumatology cases, drawn from a pool of 96 cases, with or without the aid of the decision tree. Students who used the decision tree correctly diagnosed the following conditions more frequently than the control group: polymyalgia rheumatica (p less than 0.05), myopathies (p less than 0.01), systemic lupus erythematosus (p less than 0.05), pyrophosphate arthropathy (p less than 0.05), seronegative spondylarthropathies (p less than 0.01), intra-articular bleeding (p less than 0.05) and traumatic synovitis (p less than 0.05). The overall diagnostic accuracy of the students who used the decision tree was 81% compared with 68% for the control group (p less than 0.001).

Breast cancer in Australian women under the age of 40.

OBJECTIVES: A case-control-family study of breast cancer in women under the age of 40 was carried out in Melbourne and Sydney, Australia, from 1992 to 1995 to determine the risk factors for these women. Subjects included 467 incident cases identified by state cancer registries and 408 population-based controls. METHODS: All participants completed a structured risk-factor questionnaire and family pedigree during an in-person interview. Where possible, cancers in first- and second-degree relatives were verified. RESULTS: Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the strongest risk factor for breast cancer was a family history of the disease -- having at least one affected first-degree relative trebled the risk (relative risk [RR] = 3.3, 95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 1.9-5.8). Risk increased with height by three percent (standard error [SE] of one percent) per cm, and after adjusting for height, there was evidence for a decreased risk in women weighing 73 kg or more. There was an increased risk of breast cancer after the first full-term birth (RR = 1.8, CI = 1.0-3.5) but this risk fell by 30 percent (SE = 11 percent) with each subsequent livebirth. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of other reproductive factors and oral contraceptive use, although not nominally significant, were in accord with published findings from similar studies in young women. This study of Australian women has indicated that some risk factors for breast cancer in women under age 40 differ from those reported for older women either in direction (e.g., weight) or relative importance (e.g., family history).

Smoking and prostate cancer: findings from an Australian case-control study.

BACKGROUND: To examine the risk of smoking on histopathologically-confirmed moderate- and high-grade prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A population-based case-control study was conducted in Melbourne, Sydney and Perth between 1994 and 1998 in men aged below 70 years. Cases were recruited from cancer registries and controls were selected from electoral registers. 1498 cases and 1434 controls were interviewed and a detailed smoking history obtained. Data were analyzed by unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for age, study center, year of recruitment, family history and country of birth. RESULTS: The odds ratios (OR) were 1.02 (0.85-1.22) for former smoking and 0.82 (0.65-1.05) for current smoking. The respective ORs were 0.95 (0.78-1.15) and 0.76 (0.59-0.99) for moderate grade tumors, and 1.28 (0.96-1.70) and 1.00 (0.67-1.47) for high-grade tumors (P = 0.2 for test that ORs of the two grades were identical). There was no evidence of a dose-response effect for duration of smoking, amount smoked daily, pack-years of smoking and years since quitting and most ORs for these variables were close to unity. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking was not associated with the incidence of prostate cancer. The widths and upper limits of the confidence intervals for the effects of current and former smoking were consistent with weak effects at most.

Segregation analyses of 1,476 population-based Australian families affected by prostate cancer.

Segregation analyses aim to detect genetic factors that have a major effect on an individual's risk of disease and to describe them in terms of mode of inheritance, age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance), and allele frequency. We conducted single- and two-locus segregation analyses of data from 1,476 men with prostate cancer diagnosed at age <70 years and ascertained through population registries in Melbourne, Sydney, and Perth, Australia, and from their brothers, fathers, and both maternal and paternal lineal uncles. Estimation and model selection were based on asymptotic likelihood theory and were performed through use of the software MENDEL. All two-locus models gave better fits than did single-locus models, even if lineal uncles were excluded or if we censored data (age and disease status) for relatives at 1992, when prostate-specific-antigen testing started to have a major impact on the incidence of prostate cancer in Australia. Among the genetic models that we considered, the best-fitting ones included a dominantly inherited increased risk that was greater, in multiplicative terms, at younger ages, as well as a recessively inherited or X-linked increased risk that was greater, in multiplicative terms, at older ages. The recessive and X-linked effects were strongly confounded, and it was not possible to fit them together. Penetrance to age 80 years was approximately 70% (95% confidence interval [CI] 57%-85%) for the dominant effect and virtually 100% for the recessive and X-linked effects. Approximately 1/30 (95% CI 1/80-1/12) men would carry the dominant risk, and 1/140 (95% CI 1/220-1/90) would carry the recessive risk or 1/200 (95% CI 1/380-1/100) would carry the X-linked risk. Within discussed limitations, these analyses confirm the genetic heterogeneity, of prostate cancer susceptibility, that is becoming evident from linkage analyses, and they may aid future efforts in gene discovery.