Evaluating Confounding Control in Estimations of Influenza Antiviral Effectiveness in Electronic Health Plan Data.

Observational studies of oseltamivir use and influenza complications could suffer from residual confounding. Using negative control risk periods and a negative control outcome, we examined confounding control in a health-insurance-claims-based study of oseltamivir and influenza complications (pneumonia, all-cause hospitalization, and dispensing of an antibiotic). Within the Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System, we identified individuals aged ≥18 years who initiated oseltamivir use on the influenza diagnosis date versus those who did not, during 3 influenza seasons (2014-2017). We evaluated primary outcomes within the following 1-30 days (the primary risk period) and 61-90 days (the negative control period) and nonvertebral fractures (the negative control outcome) within days 1-30. We estimated propensity-score-matched risk ratios (RRs) per season. During the 2014-2015 influenza season, oseltamivir use was associated with a reduction in the risk of pneumonia (RR = 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70, 0.75) and all-cause hospitalization (RR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.55) in days 1-30. During days 61-90, estimates were near-null for pneumonia (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.15) and hospitalization (RR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91, 0.98) but slightly increased for antibiotic dispensing (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.21). The RR for fractures was near-null (RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.20). Estimates for the 2016-2017 influenza season were comparable, while the 2015-2016 season had conflicting results. Our study suggests minimal residual confounding for specific outcomes, but results differed by season.

Using inpatient electronic medical records to study influenza for pandemic preparedness.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the ability to identify key data relevant to influenza and other respiratory virus surveillance in a large-scale US-based hospital electronic medical record (EMR) dataset using seasonal influenza as a use case. We describe characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized influenza cases across three seasons. METHODS: We identified patients with an influenza diagnosis between March 2017 and March 2020 in 140 US hospitals as part of the US FDA's Sentinel System. We calculated descriptive statistics on the presence of high-risk conditions, influenza antiviral administrations, and severity endpoints. RESULTS: Among 5.1 million hospitalizations, we identified 29,520 hospitalizations with an influenza diagnosis; 64% were treated with an influenza antiviral within 2 days of admission, and 25% were treated >2 days after admission. Patients treated >2 days after admission had more comorbidities than patients treated within 2 days of admission. Patients never treated during hospitalization had more documentation of cardiovascular and other diseases than treated patients. We observed more severe endpoints in patients never treated (death = 3%, mechanical ventilation [MV] = 9%, intensive care unit [ICU] = 26%) or patients treated >2 days after admission (death = 2%, MV = 14%, ICU = 32%) than in patients treated earlier (treated on admission: death = 1%, MV = 5%, ICU = 23%, treated within 2 days of admission: death = 1%, MV = 7%, ICU = 27%). CONCLUSIONS: We identified important trends in influenza severity related to treatment timing in a large inpatient dataset, laying the groundwork for the use of this and other inpatient EMR data for influenza and other respiratory virus surveillance.

Who gets treated for influenza: A surveillance study from the US Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the baseline characteristics and complications of individuals with influenza in the US FDA's Sentinel System by antiviral treatment timing. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort design. PATIENTS: Individuals aged ≥6 months with outpatient diagnoses of influenza in June 2014-July 2017, 3 influenza seasons. METHODS: We identified the comorbidities, vaccination history, influenza testing, and outpatient antiviral dispensings of individuals with influenza using administrative claims data from 13 data partners including the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, integrated delivery systems, and commercial health plans. We assessed complications within 30 days: hospitalization, oxygen use, mechanical ventilation, critical care, ECMO, and death. RESULTS: There were 1,090,333 influenza diagnoses in 2014-2015; 1,005,240 in 2016-2017; and 578,548 in 2017-2018. Between 49% and 55% of patients were dispensed outpatient treatment within 5 days. In all periods >80% of treated individuals received treatment on the day of diagnosis. Those treated on days 1-5 after diagnosis had higher prevalences of diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, and obesity compared to those treated on the day of diagnosis or not treated at all. They also had higher rates of hospitalization, oxygen use, and critical care. In 2014-2015, among those aged ≥65 years, the rates of hospitalization were 45 per 1,000 diagnoses among those treated on day 0; 74 per 1,000 among those treated on days 1-5; and 50 per 1,000 among those who were untreated. CONCLUSIONS: In a large, national analysis, approximately half of people diagnosed with influenza in the outpatient setting were treated with antiviral medications. Delays in outpatient dispensed treatment were associated with higher prevalence of comorbidities and higher rates of complication.