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Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality are not fully understood on a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine PM. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with overdispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from copollutants (fine PM, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled, and regional analyses were conducted. Measurements and Main Results: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18%-0.84%), 0.43% (95% CI, 0.15%-0.71%), and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.06%-0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all copollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds. Conclusions: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Ozono , Enfermedades Respiratorias , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/efectos adversos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Monóxido de Carbono/análisis , China , Ciudades , Polvo , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Humanos , Mortalidad , Dióxido de Nitrógeno , Ozono/análisis , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Material Particulado/análisis , Dióxido de AzufreRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 µg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).
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Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Mortalidad , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Causas de Muerte , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/legislación & jurisprudencia , Salud Global , Humanos , Tamaño de la Partícula , Material Particulado/análisis , Enfermedades Respiratorias/mortalidad , RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Water insecurity is an important risk factor for disease. In recent years, Palestinians have seen access to drinking water increasingly restricted. The aim of this study was to describe such changes over time and examine the association between drinking water sources and the health of children younger than 5 years in the occupied Palestinian territory in 2000-14. METHODS: For this repeated cross-sectional study we used data from five Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2000 and 2014. Change over time was quantified by comparison between the first (n=6155) and final survey (n=7893). For regression analysis, data were aggregated by year, locality (urban vs rural vs camp), and governorate area (n=218). Multiple regression models were applied to examine associations between access to improved drinking water sources (according to Joint Monitoring Programme definitions) and the prevalence of diarrhoea and stunting. Ethical approval was obtained from Al-Najah University and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. FINDINGS: Children's access to an improved water source decreased from 98% in 2000 to 11% in 2014 in the Gaza Strip, whereas it remained stable in the West Bank (94% in 2000 to 94% in 2014). The prevalence of diarrhoea increased in both areas (7% in 2000 to 11% in 2014 in the Gaza Strip; 6% in 2000 to 11% in 2014 in the West Bank), whereas the prevalence of stunting decreased in both (12% in 2000 to 8% in 2014 in the Gaza Strip; 11% in 2000 to 8% in 2014 in the West Bank). Pooled analysis adjusted for socioeconomic status and survey year suggested that prevalence of diarrhoea decreased in areas by 6% (95% CI -12 to 0) for every 1% increase in the use of an improved water source in the Gaza Strip. This was not the case in the West Bank. INTERPRETATION: Limited access to improved water sources was associated with higher prevalence of diarrhoea in the Gaza Strip between 2000 and 2014. Our results suggest policies to increase access to improved water sources should remain a priority in the Gaza Strip. FUNDING: None.
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BACKGROUND: Socioeconomically disadvantaged populations often have higher exposures to particulate air pollution, which can be expected to contribute to differentials in life expectancy. We examined socioeconomic differentials in exposure and air pollution-related mortality relating to larger scale (5 km resolution) variations in background concentrations of selected pollutants across England. METHODS: Ozone and particulate matter (sub-divided into PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5-10, primary, nitrate and sulphate PM2.5) were simulated at 5 km horizontal resolution using an atmospheric chemistry transport model (EMEP4UK). Annual mean concentrations of these pollutants were assigned to all 1,202,578 residential postcodes in England, which were classified by urban-rural status and socioeconomic deprivation based on the income and employment domains of the 2010 English Index of Multiple Deprivation for the Lower-level Super Output Area of residence. We used life table methods to estimate PM2.5-attributable life years (LYs) lost in both relative and absolute terms. RESULTS: Concentrations of the most particulate fractions, but not of nitrate PM2.5 or ozone, were modestly higher in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation. Relationships between pollution level and socioeconomic deprivation were non-linear and varied by urban-rural status. The pattern of PM2.5 concentrations made only a small contribution to the steep socioeconomic gradient in LYs lost due to PM2.5 per 103 population, which primarily was driven by the steep socioeconomic gradient in underlying mortality rates. In rural areas, the absolute burden of air pollution-related LYs lost was lowest in the most deprived deciles. CONCLUSIONS: Air pollution shows modest socioeconomic patterning at 5 km resolution in England, but absolute attributable mortality burdens are strongly related to area-level deprivation because of underlying mortality rates. Measures that cause a general reduction in background concentrations of air pollution may modestly help narrow socioeconomic differences in health.
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Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Modelos Teóricos , Mortalidad , Población Rural/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Nitratos/análisis , Ozono/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , Factores Socioeconómicos , Sulfatos/análisisRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There is increasing appreciation of the proportion of the health burden that is attributed to modifiable population exposure to environmental health hazards. To manage this avoidable burden in the United Kingdom (UK), government policies and interventions are implemented. In practice, this procedure is interdisciplinary in action and multi-dimensional in context. Here, we demonstrate how Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate priority setting for environmental public health interventions within local authorities. We combine modelling and expert elicitation to gather evidence on the impacts and ranking of interventions. METHODS: To present the methodology, we consider a hypothetical scenario in a UK city. We use MCDA to evaluate and compare the impact of interventions to reduce the health burden associated with four environmental health hazards and rank them in terms of their overall performance across several criteria. For illustrative purposes, we focus on heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution, remediation to control levels of indoor radon, carbon monoxide and fitting alarms, and encouraging cycling to target the obesogenic environment. Regional data was included as model evidence to construct a ratings matrix for the city. RESULTS: When MCDA is performed with uniform weights, the intervention of heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution is ranked the highest. Cycling and the obesogenic environment is ranked second. CONCLUSIONS: We argue that a MCDA based approach provides a framework to guide environmental public health decision makers. This is demonstrated through an online interactive MCDA tool. We conclude that MCDA is a transparent tool that can be used to compare the impact of alternative interventions on a set of pre-defined criteria. In our illustrative example, we ranked the best intervention across the equally weighted selected criteria out of the four alternatives. Further work is needed to test the tool with decision makers and stakeholders.
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Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Salud Ambiental , Indicadores de Salud , Salud Pública , Ciudades , Humanos , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
In this contribution, we applied a multi-stage machine learning (ML) framework to map daily values of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) at a 1 km2 resolution over Great Britain for the period 2003-2021. The process combined ground monitoring observations, satellite-derived products, climate reanalyses and chemical transport model datasets, and traffic and land-use data. Each feature was harmonized to 1 km resolution and extracted at monitoring sites. Models used single and ensemble-based algorithms featuring random forests (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), as well as lasso and ridge regression. The various stages focused on augmenting PM2.5 using co-occurring PM10 values, gap-filling aerosol optical depth and columnar NO2 data obtained from satellite instruments, and finally the training of an ensemble model and the prediction of daily values across the whole geographical domain (2003-2021). Results show a good ensemble model performance, calculated through a ten-fold monitor-based cross-validation procedure, with an average R2 of 0.690 (range 0.611-0.792) for NO2, 0.704 (0.609-0.786) for PM10, and 0.802 (0.746-0.888) for PM2.5. Reconstructed pollution levels decreased markedly within the study period, with a stronger reduction in the latter eight years. The pollutants exhibited different spatial patterns, while NO2 rose in close proximity to high-traffic areas, PM demonstrated variation at a larger scale. The resulting 1 km2 spatially resolved daily datasets allow for linkage with health data across Great Britain over nearly two decades, thus contributing to extensive, extended, and detailed research on the long-and short-term health effects of air pollution.
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Interventions such as antimalarial drugs, bed nets and insecticides have helped curb the burden of malaria in the past decade, yet malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children below the age of 5 years. In 2019, Ghana, Malawi and Kenya in sub-Saharan Africa (countries with moderate to high transmission areas of malaria and deaths) started piloting the RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine in selected regions. Using qualitative methods, this study examined the main factors (forces) that will influence or hinder the nationwide implementation of the malaria vaccine, if approved, in Ghana. We conducted in-depth interviews with 12 key individuals (national, research/academia and programme implementing partners) in the public health sector in Ghana from October 2018 to February 2019. Results were analysed using Kurt Lewin's force field analysis to understand how organizations interact with their external environment in the delivery of health policies such as the implementation of the malaria vaccine. We found that the disease burden of malaria deaths in Ghana, the efficacy of the vaccine, stakeholder involvement and evidence for the feasibility of vaccine delivery generated by the consortium of researchers (body of researchers) that can track the implementation were the driving forces to scale up the vaccine into a routine health system. On the other hand, the needed logistics, funding, administration of the four-dose vaccine and follow-up were identified as potential barriers. The most influential force collectively highlighted by the respondents was the disease burden, and the most influential barrier was the logistics of delivering the vaccine. Our findings provide decision makers with key barriers and facilitators to guide policy and decision-making for malaria control in Ghana and other similar settings in low- and middle-income countries.
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Antimaláricos , Vacunas contra la Malaria , Malaria , Niño , Humanos , Preescolar , Ghana/epidemiología , Malaria/prevención & control , KeniaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There is little information available on nontraumatic health risks as the result of floods, and on the factors that determine vulnerability to them (especially in low-income settings). We estimated the pattern of mortality, diarrhea, and acute respiratory infection following the 2004 floods in rural Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted controlled interrupted time-series analysis of adverse health outcomes, from 2001 to 2007, in a cohort of 211,000 residents of the Matlab region classified as flooded or nonflooded in 2004. Ratios of mortality, diarrhea, and acute respiratory infection rates in flooded compared with nonflooded areas were calculated by week for mortality and diarrhea, and by month for acute respiratory infection. We controlled for baseline differences as well as normal seasonal patterns in the flooded and nonflooded areas. Variations in flood-related health risks were examined by age, income level, drinking-water source, latrine type, and service area. RESULTS: After fully controlling for pre-flood rate differences and for seasonality, there was no clear evidence of excesses in mortality or diarrhea risk during or after flooding. For acute respiratory infection, we found no evidence of excess risk during the flood itself but a moderate increase in risk during the 6 months after the flood (relative risk = 1.25 [95% confidence interval = 1.06-1.47]) and the subsequent 18 months. CONCLUSIONS: We found little evidence of increased risk of diarrhea or mortality following the floods, but evidence of a moderate elevation in risk of acute respiratory infection during the 2 years after flooding. The discrepancies between our results and the apparent excesses for mortality and diarrhea reported in other situations, using less- controlled estimates, emphasize the importance of stringent confounder control.
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Diarrea/epidemiología , Desastres , Inundaciones , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/epidemiología , Enfermedad Aguda , Adolescente , Adulto , Bangladesh/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Diarrea/etiología , Femenino , Inundaciones/mortalidad , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
People who relocate to a new environment may experience health effects from a change in ambient air pollution. We undertook a literature review of studies of such relocations and health effects and report the results as a narrative analysis. Fifteen articles of heterogeneous designs met the inclusion criteria. Four short-term (relocation duration less than six months) and three long-term (relocation duration six months or greater) studies reported evidence of the effect of relocation on physiological outcome, biomarkers or symptoms. All had potential weaknesses of design or analysis but, as a whole, their results are broadly consistent in suggesting short-term adverse effects of air pollutants or their reversibility. One long-term study provided evidence that changes in air pollution exposure during adolescence have a measurable effect on lung function growth. Four cohort studies were also identified that used relocation to strengthen evidence of air-pollution-exposure relationships by using a design that incorporates effective randomization of exposure or the use of relocation to improve exposure classification. However, three studies of relocation during pregnancy provided limited evidence to conclude an effect of relocation-related change in exposure on pregnancy outcome. Overall, most relocation studies are consistent with short- or long-term adverse effects of air pollution on biological function or mortality, but many studies of change in exposure have design weaknesses that limit the robustness of interpretation. We outline principles for improved design and analysis to help strengthen future studies for the insights they can provide from their quasi-experimental designs, including on the nature and timing of functional changes of relocation-related changes in exposure to ambient air pollution.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Adolescente , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Femenino , Humanos , Material Particulado/análisis , Embarazo , Resultado del EmbarazoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There have been no population-based studies of SARS-CoV-2 testing, PCR-confirmed infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions across the full paediatric age range. We examine the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in children and young people (CYP) aged <23 years. METHODS: We used a birth cohort of all children born in Scotland since 1997, constructed via linkage between vital statistics, hospital records and SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data. We calculated risks of tests and PCR-confirmed infections per 1000 CYP-years between August and December 2020, and COVID-19-related hospital admissions per 100 000 CYP-years between February and December 2020. We used Poisson and Cox proportional hazards regression models to determine risk factors. RESULTS: Among the 1 226 855 CYP in the cohort, there were 378 402 tests (a rate of 770.8/1000 CYP-years (95% CI 768.4 to 773.3)), 19 005 PCR-confirmed infections (179.4/1000 CYP-years (176.9 to 182.0)) and 346 admissions (29.4/100 000 CYP-years (26.3 to 32.8)). Infants had the highest COVID-19-related admission rates. The presence of chronic conditions, particularly multiple types of conditions, was strongly associated with COVID-19-related admissions across all ages. Overall, 49% of admitted CYP had at least one chronic condition recorded. CONCLUSIONS: Infants and CYP with chronic conditions are at highest risk of admission with COVID-19. Half of admitted CYP had chronic conditions. Studies examining COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among children with chronic conditions and whether maternal vaccine during pregnancy prevents COVID-19 admissions in infants are urgently needed.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescente , Cohorte de Nacimiento , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Prueba de COVID-19 , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Niño , Enfermedad Crónica , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Hospitales , Humanos , Lactante , EmbarazoRESUMEN
Rationale: Epidemiological evidence indicates that ambient exposure to particulate matter ⩽2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on lung function growth in children, but it is not actually clear whether exposure to low-level PM2.5 results in long-term decrements in lung function growth in pre- to early-adolescent schoolchildren. Objectives: To examine long-term effects of PM2.5 within the 4-year average concentration range of 10-19 µg/m3 on lung function growth with repeated measurements of lung function tests. Methods: Longitudinal analysis of 6,233 lung function measurements in 1,466 participants aged 8-12 years from 16 school communities in 10 cities around Japan, covering a broad area of the country to represent concentration ranges of PM2.5, was done with a multilevel linear regression model. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second, forced vital capacity (FVC), and maximal expiratory flow at 50% of FVC were used as lung function indicators to examine the effects of 10-µg/m3 increases in the PM2.5 concentration on relative growth per each 10-cm increase in height. Results: The overall annual mean PM2.5 level was 13.5 µg/m3 (range, 10.4-19.0 µg/m3). We found no association between any of the lung function growth indicators and increases in PM2.5 levels in children of either sex, even after controlling for potential confounders. Analysis with two-pollutant models with O3 or NO2 did not change the null results. Conclusions: This nationwide longitudinal study suggests that concurrent, long-term exposure to PM2.5 at concentrations ranging from 10.4 to 19.0 µg/m3 has little effect on lung function growth in preadolescent boys or pre- to early-adolescent girls.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Adolescente , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/toxicidad , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/estadística & datos numéricos , Niño , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Volumen Espiratorio Forzado , Humanos , Japón/epidemiología , Estudios Longitudinales , Pulmón , Masculino , Material Particulado/análisis , Material Particulado/toxicidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Limited evidence suggests that being flooded may increase mortality and morbidity among affected householders not just at the time of the flood but for months afterwards. The objective of this study is to explore the methods for quantifying such long-term health effects of flooding by analysis of routine mortality registrations in England and Wales. METHODS: Mortality data, geo-referenced by postcode of residence, were linked to a national database of flood events for 1994 to 2005. The ratio of mortality in the post-flood year to that in the pre-flood year within flooded postcodes was compared with that in non-flooded boundary areas (within 5 km of a flood). Further analyses compared the observed number of flood-area deaths in the year after flooding with the number expected from analysis of mortality trends stratified by region, age-group, sex, deprivation group and urban-rural status. RESULTS: Among the 319 recorded floods, there were 771 deaths in the year before flooding and 693 deaths in the year after (post-/pre-flood ratio of 0.90, 95% CI 0.82, 1.00). This ratio did not vary substantially by age, sex, population density or deprivation. A similar post-flood 'deficit' of deaths was suggested by the analyses based on observed/expected deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The observed post-flood 'deficit' of deaths is counter-intuitive and difficult to interpret because of the possible influence of population displacement caused by flooding. The bias that might arise from such displacement remains unquantified but has important implications for future studies that use place of residence as a marker of exposure.
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Inundaciones/mortalidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Niño , Preescolar , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Femenino , Inundaciones/historia , Inundaciones/estadística & datos numéricos , Historia del Siglo XX , Historia del Siglo XXI , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Sistema de Registros , Gales/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The 2019 Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV 2 (COVID-191) pandemic has severely impacted global health, safety, economic development and diplomacy. The government of Nepal issued a lockdown order in the Kathmandu Valley for 80 days from 24 March to 11 June 2020. This paper reports associated changes in ambient PM2.5 measured at fixed-site monitors and changes in personal exposure to PM2.5 monitored by APT Minima by four American diplomats who completed monitoring before and during lockdown (24 h for each period per person, 192 person-hours in total). Time activities and use of home air pollution mitigation measures (use of room air cleaners (RACs), sealing of homes) were recorded by standardized diary. We compared PM2.5 exposure level by microenvironment (home (cooking), home (other activities), at work, commuting, other outdoor environment) in terms of averaged PM2.5 concentration and the contribution to cumulative personal exposure (the product of PM2.5 concentration and time spent in each microenvironment). Ambient PM2.5 measured at fixed-sites in the US Embassy and in Phora Durbar were 38.2% and 46.7% lower than during the corresponding period in 2017-2019. The mean concentration of PM2.5 to which US diplomats were exposed was very much lower than the concentrations of ambient levels measured at fixed site monitors in the city both before and during lockdown. Within-person comparisons suggest personal PM2.5 exposure was 50.0% to 76.7% lower during lockdown than before it. Time spent outdoors and cooking at home were large contributors to cumulative personal exposure. Low indoor levels of PM2.5 were achieved at work and home through use of RACs and measures to seal homes against the ingress of polluted air from outside. Our observations indicate the potential reduction in exposure to PM2.5 with large-scale changes to mainly fossil-fuel related emissions sources and through control of indoor environments and activity patterns.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire Interior , Contaminación del Aire , COVID-19 , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Contaminación del Aire Interior/análisis , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Empleados de Gobierno , Humanos , Nepal , Material Particulado/análisis , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are the most common reason for hospital admission among children <5 years in the UK. The relative contribution of ambient air pollution exposure and adverse housing conditions to RTI admissions in young children is unclear and has not been assessed in a UK context. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The aim of the PICNIC study (Air Pollution, housing and respiratory tract Infections in Children: NatIonal birth Cohort Study) is to quantify the extent to which in-utero, infant and childhood exposures to ambient air pollution and adverse housing conditions are associated with risk of RTI admissions in children <5 years old. We will use national administrative data birth cohorts, including data from all children born in England in 2005-2014 and in Scotland in 1997-2020, created via linkage between civil registration, maternity and hospital admission data sets. We will further enhance these cohorts via linkage to census data on housing conditions and socioeconomic position and small area-level data on ambient air pollution and building characteristics. We will use time-to-event analyses to examine the association between air pollution, housing characteristics and the risk of RTI admissions in children, calculate population attributable fractions for ambient air pollution and housing characteristics, and use causal mediation analyses to explore the mechanisms through which housing and air pollution influence the risk of infant RTI admission. ETHICS, EXPECTED IMPACT AND DISSEMINATION: To date, we have obtained approval from six ethics and information governance committees in England and two in Scotland. Our results will inform parents, national and local governments, the National Health Service and voluntary sector organisations of the relative contribution of adverse housing conditions and air pollution to RTI admissions in young children. We will publish our results in open-access journals and present our results to the public via parent groups and social media and on the PICNIC website. Code and metadata will be published on GitHub.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/efectos adversos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios de Cohortes , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Vivienda , Humanos , Lactante , Embarazo , Escocia/epidemiología , Medicina EstatalRESUMEN
AIM: To examine the association between long-term exposure to suspended particulate matter (SPM) and cardiovascular mortality in Japan after controlling for known major confounding factors among a large middle and elderly cohort study in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan. METHODS: We followed 91,808 residents (men 34%) who undertook a national health check-up at age 40-79 years for 17 years (1993-2010). Two different exposure indices were adopted: baseline SPM concentration (in the year 1990) and average SPM concentration for the first (average of 1990 and 1995) and the second half (average of 2005 to 2009) of the study period. Sex-specific adjusted risk ratios (RRs) for cardiovascular mortality were calculated using general mixed Poisson regression models after adjusting the age, BMI, history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension, creatinine, glutamic pyruvic transaminase, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, alcohol, and temperature. The variation between seven medical administration areas was also taken into account as a random effect. RESULTS: Baseline SPM concentration was associated with an increased risk of mortality from all cardiovascular diseases, coronary artery disease, and stroke. The adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval [CI]) per 10 µg/m3 increase in SPM concentration for all cardiovascular mortality were 1.147 (1.014-1.300) for men and 1.097 (0.985-1.222) for women. The point estimate of RR was highest for non-hemorrhagic stroke in men (1.248 [0.991-1.571]), although CI overlapped the unity. The RRs seemed slightly lower in the second half than in the first half, though the CIs widened in the second half. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that long-term exposure to SPM is associated with an increased risk of all cardiovascular mortality for men in Ibaraki, Japan.
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Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Adulto , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Japón , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Tasa de Supervivencia , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. METHODS: We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure-response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. FINDINGS: Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32-1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure-response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure-response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. INTERPRETATION: This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020, UK Medical Research Council, and Natural Environment Research Council.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/toxicidad , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Monóxido de Carbono , Ciudades , HumanosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. DESIGN: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. SETTING: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. RESULTS: On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm or ≤2.5 µm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. CONCLUSIONS: This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.
Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos/toxicidad , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Salud Global/estadística & datos numéricos , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/toxicidad , Enfermedades Respiratorias/mortalidad , Salud Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/inducido químicamente , Ciudades , Países Desarrollados/estadística & datos numéricos , Países en Desarrollo/estadística & datos numéricos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Humanos , Modelos Lineales , Enfermedades Respiratorias/inducido químicamenteRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25°â×â0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 µg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Incendios Forestales , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Australia , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Material Particulado/análisisRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Acute associations between mortality and ozone are largely accepted, though recent evidence is less conclusive. Evidence on ozone-heat interaction is sparse. We assess effects of ozone, heat, and their interaction, on mortality in Britain. METHODS: Acute effects of summer ozone on mortality were estimated using data from 15 conurbations in England and Wales (May-September, 1993-2003). 2-day means of daily maximum 8-h ozone were entered into case series analyses, controlling for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of <10â µm, natural cubic splines of temperature, and other factors. Heat effects were estimated, comparing adjusted mortality rates at 97.5th and 75th percentiles of 2-day mean temperature. A separate model employed interaction terms to assess whether ozone effects increased on 'hot days' (where 2-day mean temperature exceeded the whole-year 95th percentile). Other heat metrics, and non-linear ozone effects, were also examined. RESULTS: Adverse ozone and heat effects occurred in nearly all conurbations. The mean mortality rate ratio for heat effect across conurbations was 1.071 (1.050-1.093). The mean ozone rate ratio was 1.003 per 10â µg/m(3) ozone increase (95% CI 1.001 to 1.005). On 'hot days' the mean ozone effect reached 1.006 (1.002-1.009) per 10â µg/m(3), though ozone-heat interaction was significant in London only. On substituting maximum for mean temperature, the overall ozone effect reduced to null, though evidence remained of effects on hot days, particularly in London. An estimated ozone effect threshold was below current guidelines in 'mean temperature' models. CONCLUSION: While heat showed robust effects on summer mortality, estimates for ozone depended upon the modelling of temperature. However, there was some evidence that ozone effects were worse on hot days, whichever temperature measure was used.
Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos/toxicidad , Calor/efectos adversos , Mortalidad , Ozono/toxicidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Niño , Preescolar , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ozono/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , Material Particulado/toxicidad , Estaciones del Año , Temperatura , Salud Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Gales/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Mt. Oyama on Miyakejima Island erupted in June 2000 and all Miyake village citizens were forced to evacuate the island in the September, due to continuous eruptions and emission of unsafe amounts of volcanic gas, mainly sulfur dioxide (SO2). Beginning in February 2005, residents returned to live on the island despite the fact that volcanic gas was still being emitted. OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in the respiratory systems of included children from February 2006 to November 2006. METHODS: The study population was 141 children who participated in health checkups in November 2006, including 33 SO2 hypersusceptible children who had a current or past history of asthma, obstructive lung function, current symptoms of whistling and wheezing, and/or deterioration of respiratory symptoms. Respiratory effects were evaluated by a questionnaire for respiratory symptoms and by spirometry. SO2 was monitored at 7 sampling points within inhabited areas, and the mean SO2 concentration from February 2005 to November 2006 was 0.031 ppm. The area was categorized into four areas by average SO2 concentration, namely, areas L, H-1, H-2, and H-3, where the average SO2 levels were 0.019, 0.026, 0.032, and 0.045 ppm, respectively. RESULTS: Compared to children in area L, the frequencies of "phlegm" and "irritation of the nose" were significantly greater in the children in areas H-2 and H-3. %FVC and %FEV1 in hypersusceptible children were significantly reduced in November 2006 as compared to February 2006 (P = 0.047, 0.027), though no reduction observed in normosusceptible children. CONCLUSION: Respiratory functions in hypersusceptible Miyakejima children may be affected by SO2 exposure, and further follow-up observation is necessary.