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1.
BMC Cardiovasc Disord ; 23(1): 548, 2023 11 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37946116

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidaemia among individuals with diabetes is a significant modifiable risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVDs). ASCVDs are a major cause of mortality and morbidity globally, especially in people with diabetes. In Malawi, limited data exist on the prevalence and biochemical characteristics of diabetic dyslipidaemia. This study investigated the prevalence and biochemical characteristics of dyslipidaemia in individuals attending the diabetes clinic at Kamuzu Central Hospital, the largest tertiary referral hospital in Central Malawi. METHODS: Using a cross-sectional design, sociodemographic, medical and anthropometric data were collected from 391 adult participants who were enrolled in the study. Blood samples were analysed for glycosylated haemoglobin (HBA1c) and fasting lipid profiles. The prevalence of dyslipidaemia was calculated, and the biochemical characteristics of the dyslipidaemia were defined. The associations between dyslipidaemia and risk factors such as sociodemographic characteristics, obesity, and HBA1c levels were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Prevalence of dyslipidaemia was observed in 71% of the participants, and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was the most frequent lipid abnormality among the study participants. None of the participants were receiving any lipid-lowering therapy. On bivariate analysis, dyslipidemia was positively associated with female sex [OR 1.65 (95% CI 1.05- 2.58); p = 0.09], age ≥ 30 years [OR 3.60 (95% CI 1.17-7.68); p = 0.001] and overweight and obesity [OR 2.11 (95% CI 1.33-3.34); p = 0.002]. On multivariate analysis, being overweight or obese was an independent predictor of dyslipidaemia [AOR 1.8;(95% CI 1.15- 3.37); p = 0.04]. CONCLUSION: Dyslipidaemia was highly prevalent among individuals with diabetes in this study, and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was the most frequent lipid abnormality. Overweight and obesity were also highly prevalent and positively predicted dyslipidaemia. This study highlights the importance of appropriately addressing dyslipidaemia, overweight and obesity among individuals with diabetes in Malawi and other similar settings in Africa as one of the significant ways of reducing the risk of ASCVDs among this population.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus , Dislipidemias , Adulto , Humanos , Femenino , Centros de Atención Terciaria , Sobrepeso/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Malaui/epidemiología , Hemoglobina Glucada , Estudios Transversales , Factores de Riesgo , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Obesidad/diagnóstico , Obesidad/epidemiología , Colesterol , Dislipidemias/diagnóstico , Dislipidemias/epidemiología , LDL-Colesterol
2.
BMC Cardiovasc Disord ; 22(1): 557, 2022 12 22.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36544081

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidaemia drives the process of atherosclerosis, and hence a significant modifiable risk factor complicating hypertension and diabetes. In Malawi, the prevalence, screening and management of dyslipidaemia among persons with diabetes mellitus have not been reported. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence, biochemical characteristics, screening and management practices for dyslipidaemia among persons with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus and hypertension comorbidity at Queen Elizabeth Central hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 2021. A total of 256 adult participants (diabetes mellitus = 100); hypertension = 100; both conditions = 56) were included. Medical data and anthropometric measurements were recorded. Blood samples were analysed for HbA1C and serum lipids. Associated risk factors for dyslipidaemia were also assessed. RESULTS: Dyslipidaemia was prevalent in 58%, 55%, and 70% of participants with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and both conditions. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) dyslipidaemia was the most common in all participant groups. Participants with both diabetes and hypertension had 2.4 times (95% CI 1.2-4.6) increased risk of LDL-C dyslipidaemia than those with diabetes alone (p < 0.02). Being overweight or obese and age over 30 years were risk factors for dyslipidaemia in participants with diabetes mellitus alone (OR 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.6), p < 0.04, and OR 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.7) (p < 0.01), respectively. Overweight and obesity predicted LDL-C dyslipidaemia in hypertensive patients (OR 3.5 (95% CI 1.2-9.9) p < 0.001). Poorly controlled hypertension and the use of beta-blockers and thiazide diuretics predicted dyslipidaemia among patients with both diabetes mellitus and hypertension (OR 6.50 CI 1.45-29.19; and OR 5.20 CI 1.16-23.36 respectively). None of the participants had a lipogram performed before the study or were on lipid-lowering therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Dyslipidaemia with LDL-C derangement was highly prevalent, especially in individuals with both diabetes mellitus and hypertension, and there was absent use of lipid-lowering therapy. Screening and managing dyslipidaemia should be reinforced to reduce the risk of cardiovascular complications in this population at increased risk.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus , Dislipidemias , Hipertensión , Adulto , Humanos , Sobrepeso , LDL-Colesterol , Prevalencia , Malaui/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Centros de Atención Terciaria , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Hipertensión/diagnóstico , Hipertensión/tratamiento farmacológico , Hipertensión/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Dislipidemias/diagnóstico , Dislipidemias/tratamiento farmacológico , Dislipidemias/epidemiología , Obesidad/diagnóstico , Obesidad/epidemiología , Obesidad/complicaciones
3.
Malar J ; 15(1): 575, 2016 Nov 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27899115

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Malawi experienced prolonged use of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP) as the front-line anti-malarial drug, with early replacement of chloroquine and delayed introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy. Extended use of SP, and its continued application in pregnancy is impacting the genomic variation of the Plasmodium falciparum population. METHODS: Whole genome sequence data of P. falciparum isolates covering 2 years of transmission within Malawi, alongside global datasets, were used. More than 745,000 SNPs were identified, and differences in allele frequencies between countries assessed, as well as genetic regions under positive selection determined. RESULTS: Positive selection signals were identified within dhps, dhfr and gch1, all components of the parasite folate pathway associated with SP resistance. Sitting predominantly on a dhfr triple mutation background, a novel copy number increase of ~twofold was identified in the gch1 promoter. This copy number was almost fixed (96.8% frequency) in Malawi samples, but found at less than 45% frequency in other African populations, and distinct from a whole gene duplication previously reported in Southeast Asian parasites. CONCLUSIONS: SP resistance selection pressures have been retained in the Malawian population, with known resistance dhfr mutations at fixation, complemented by a novel gch1 promoter duplication. The effects of the duplication on the fitness costs of SP variants and resistance need to be elucidated.


Asunto(s)
Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Variación Genética , Malaria Falciparum/tratamiento farmacológico , Plasmodium falciparum/clasificación , Plasmodium falciparum/efectos de los fármacos , Pirimetamina/uso terapéutico , Sulfadoxina/uso terapéutico , Preescolar , Combinación de Medicamentos , Resistencia a Medicamentos , Femenino , Frecuencia de los Genes , Genoma de Protozoos , Genotipo , Humanos , Lactante , Malaui , Masculino , Mutación , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Plasmodium falciparum/aislamiento & purificación , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple , Selección Genética , Análisis de Secuencia de ADN
4.
Hum Resour Health ; 13: 60, 2015 Jul 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26193932

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Eighty per cent of Malawi's 8 million children live in rural areas, and there is an extensive tiered health system infrastructure from village health clinics to district hospitals which refers patients to one of the four central hospitals. The clinics and district hospitals are staffed by nurses, non-physician clinicians and recently qualified doctors. There are 16 paediatric specialists working in two of the four central hospitals which serve the urban population as well as accepting referrals from district hospitals. In order to provide expert paediatric care as close to home as possible, we describe our plan to task share within a managed clinical network and our hypothesis that this will improve paediatric care and child health. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: Managed clinical networks have been found to improve equity of care in rural districts and to ensure that the correct care is provided as close to home as possible. A network for paediatric care in Malawi with mentoring of non-physician clinicians based in a district hospital by paediatricians based at the central hospitals will establish and sustain clinical referral pathways in both directions. Ultimately, the plan envisages four managed paediatric clinical networks, each radiating from one of Malawi's four central hospitals and covering the entire country. This model of task sharing within four hub-and-spoke networks may facilitate wider dissemination of scarce expertise and improve child healthcare in Malawi close to the child's home. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: Funding has been secured to train sufficient personnel to staff all central and district hospitals in Malawi with teams of paediatric specialists in the central hospitals and specialist non-physician clinicians in each government district hospital. The hypothesis will be tested using a natural experiment model. Data routinely collected by the Ministry of Health will be corroborated at the district. This will include case fatality rates for common childhood illness, perinatal mortality and process indicators. Data from different districts will be compared at baseline and annually until 2020 as the specialists of both cadres take up posts. IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: If a managed clinical network improves child healthcare in Malawi, it may be a potential model for the other countries in sub-Saharan Africa with similar cadres in their healthcare system and face similar challenges in terms of scarcity of specialists.


Asunto(s)
Salud Infantil , Atención a la Salud , Pediatría , Asistentes Médicos , Médicos , Población Rural , Trabajo , Niño , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/normas , Hospitales , Humanos , Malaui , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , Derivación y Consulta , Especialización
5.
J Infect Dis ; 210(12): 1991-2000, 2014 Dec 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24948693

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Selection by host immunity and antimalarial drugs has driven extensive adaptive evolution in Plasmodium falciparum and continues to produce ever-changing landscapes of genetic variation. METHODS: We performed whole-genome sequencing of 69 P. falciparum isolates from Malawi and used population genetics approaches to investigate genetic diversity and population structure and identify loci under selection. RESULTS: High genetic diversity (π = 2.4 × 10(-4)), moderately high multiplicity of infection (2.7), and low linkage disequilibrium (500-bp) were observed in Chikhwawa District, Malawi, an area of high malaria transmission. Allele frequency-based tests provided evidence of recent population growth in Malawi and detected potential targets of host immunity and candidate vaccine antigens. Comparison of the sequence variation between isolates from Malawi and those from 5 geographically dispersed countries (Kenya, Burkina Faso, Mali, Cambodia, and Thailand) detected population genetic differences between Africa and Asia, within Southeast Asia, and within Africa. Haplotype-based tests of selection to sequence data from all 6 populations identified signals of directional selection at known drug-resistance loci, including pfcrt, pfdhps, pfmdr1, and pfgch1. CONCLUSIONS: The sequence variations observed at drug-resistance loci reflect differences in each country's historical use of antimalarial drugs and may be useful in formulating local malaria treatment guidelines.


Asunto(s)
Adaptación Biológica , Evolución Molecular , Genoma de Protozoos , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Variación Genética , Humanos , Malaria Falciparum/tratamiento farmacológico , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Malaui , Masculino , Epidemiología Molecular , Plasmodium falciparum/aislamiento & purificación , Selección Genética , Análisis de Secuencia de ADN
6.
Bull World Health Organ ; 92(10): 750-9, 2014 Oct 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25378729

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To assess medical and nursing students' intentions to migrate abroad or practice in rural areas. METHODS: We surveyed 3199 first- and final-year medical and nursing students at 16 premier government institutions in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, Malawi, Nepal, the United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia. The survey contained questions to identify factors that could predict students' intentions to migrate. Primary outcomes were the likelihoods of migrating to work abroad or working in rural areas in the country of training within five years post-training. We assessed predictors of migration intentions using multivariable proportional odds models. FINDINGS: Among respondents, 28% (870/3156) expected to migrate abroad, while only 18% (575/3158) anticipated a rural career. More nursing than medical students desired professions abroad (odds ratio, OR: 1.76; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.25-2.48). Career desires before matriculation correlated with current intentions for international (OR: 4.49; 95% CI: 3.21-6.29) and rural (OR: 4.84; 95% CI: 3.52-6.66) careers. Time spent in rural areas before matriculation predicted the preference for a rural career (20 versus 0 years: OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.19-1.98) and against work abroad (20 versus 0 years: OR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.50-0.96). CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of students surveyed still intend to work abroad or in cities after training. These intentions could be identified even before matriculation. Admissions standards that account for years spent in rural areas could promote greater graduate retention in the country of training and in rural areas.


Asunto(s)
Selección de Profesión , Emigración e Inmigración , Intención , Servicios de Salud Rural , Estudiantes de Medicina/psicología , Estudiantes de Enfermería/psicología , Adulto , África del Sur del Sahara , Asia Sudoriental , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Recursos Humanos
7.
Res Sq ; 2023 Aug 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37674703

RESUMEN

Background: Dyslipidaemia among individuals with diabetes is a significant modifiable risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVDs). ASCVDs are a major cause of mortality and morbidity globally, especially in people with diabetes. In Malawi, limited data exist on the prevalence and biochemical characteristics of diabetic dyslipidaemia. This study investigated the prevalence and biochemical characteristics of dyslipidaemia in individuals attending the diabetes clinic at Kamuzu Central Hospital, the largest tertiary referral hospital in Central Malawi. Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, sociodemographic, medical and anthropometric data were collected from 391 adult participants who were enrolled in the study. Blood samples were analysed for glycosylated haemoglobin (HBA1c) and fasting lipid profiles. The prevalence of dyslipidaemia was calculated, and the biochemical characteristics of the dyslipidaemia were defined. The associations between dyslipidaemia and risk factors such as sociodemographic characteristics, obesity, and HBA1c levels were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. Results: Prevalence of dyslipidaemia was observed in 71% of the participants, and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was the most frequent lipid abnormality among the study participants. On bivariate analysis, dyslipidemia was positively associated with female sex [OR 1.65 (95% CI 1.05-2.58); p = 0.09], age ≥ 30 years [OR 3.60 (95% CI 1.17-7.68); p = 0.001] and overweight and obesity [OR 2.11 (95% CI 1.33-3.34); p = 0.002]. On multivariate analysis, being overweight or obese was an independent predictor of dyslipidaemia [AOR 1.8 ;( 95% CI 1.15-3.37); p = 0.04]. Conclusion: Dyslipidaemia was highly prevalent among individuals with diabetes in this study, and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was the most frequent lipid abnormality. Overweight and obesity were also highly prevalent and positively predicted dyslipidaemia. This study highlights the importance of appropriately addressing dyslipidaemia, overweight and obesity among individuals with diabetes in Malawi and other similar settings in Africa as one of the significant ways of reducing the risk of ASCVDs among this population.

8.
Lancet ; 377(9771): 1113-21, 2011 Mar 26.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21074256

RESUMEN

Small numbers of graduates from few medical schools, and emigration of graduates to other countries, contribute to low physician presence in sub-Saharan Africa. The Sub-Saharan African Medical School Study examined the challenges, innovations, and emerging trends in medical education in the region. We identified 168 medical schools; of the 146 surveyed, 105 (72%) responded. Findings from the study showed that countries are prioritising medical education scale-up as part of health-system strengthening, and we identified many innovations in premedical preparation, team-based education, and creative use of scarce research support. The study also drew attention to ubiquitous faculty shortages in basic and clinical sciences, weak physical infrastructure, and little use of external accreditation. Patterns recorded include the growth of private medical schools, community-based education, and international partnerships, and the benefit of research for faculty development. Ten recommendations provide guidance for efforts to strengthen medical education in sub-Saharan Africa.


Asunto(s)
Educación de Pregrado en Medicina/organización & administración , Facultades de Medicina , Acreditación , África del Sur del Sahara , Conducta Cooperativa , Curriculum , Emigración e Inmigración , Equipos y Suministros , Docentes Médicos/provisión & distribución , Gobierno , Personal de Salud , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional , Evaluación de Necesidades , Sector Privado , Control de Calidad , Investigación , Salarios y Beneficios , Facultades de Medicina/economía , Enseñanza
9.
Hum Resour Health ; 10: 29, 2012 Sep 13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22971119

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Malawi has one of the lowest physician densities in the world, at 1.1 doctors per 100,000 population. Undergraduate training of doctors at the national medical school has increased considerably in recent years with donor support. However, qualified doctors continue to leave the public sector in order to work or train abroad. We explored the postgraduate plans of current medical students, and the extent to which this is influenced by their background. METHODS: A self-administered questionnaire was developed after discussion with students and senior staff. This included questions on background characteristics, education before medical school, and future career plans. This was distributed to all medical and premedical students on campus over 1 week and collected by an independent researcher. One reminder visit was made to each class. Chi-squared tests were performed to investigate the relationship of student characteristics with future career plans. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-nine students completed the questionnaire out of a student body of 312, a response rate of 48%. When questioned on their plans for after graduation, 49.0% of students plan to stay in Malawi. However, 38.9% plan to leave Malawi immediately. Medical students who completed a 'premedical' foundation year at the medical school were significantly more likely to have immediate plans to stay in Malawi compared to those who completed A-levels, an advanced school-leaving qualification (P = 0.037). Current premedical students were slightly more likely to have immediate plans to work or train in Malawi compared to medical students (P = 0.049). However, a trend test across all the years was not significant. When asked about future plans, nearly half of students intend to work or train outside Malawi. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of respondents plan to leave Malawi in the future. The effectiveness of the substantial upscaling of medical education in Malawi may be diminished unless more medical students plan to work in Malawi after graduation.

10.
BMC Med Educ ; 12: 87, 2012 Sep 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22978475

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In 2004, the Malawian Ministry of Health declared a human resource crisis and launched a six year Emergency Human Resources Programme. This included salary supplements for key health workers and a tripling of doctors in training. By 2010, the number of medical graduates had doubled and significantly more doctors were working in rural district hospitals. Yet there has been little research into the views of this next generation of doctors in Malawi, who are crucial to the continuing success of the programme. The aim of this study was to explore the factors influencing the career plans of medical students and recent graduates with regard to four policy-relevant aspects: emigration outside Malawi; working at district level; private sector employment and postgraduate specialisation. METHODS: Twelve semi-structured interviews were conducted with fourth year medical students and first year graduates, recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Key informant interviews were also carried out with medical school faculty. Recordings were transcribed and analysed using a framework approach. RESULTS: Opportunities for postgraduate training emerged as the most important factor in participants' career choices, with specialisation seen as vital to career progression. All participants intended to work in Malawi in the long term, after a period of time outside the country. For nearly all participants, this was in the pursuit of postgraduate study rather than higher salaries. In general, medical students and young doctors were enthusiastic about working at district level, although this is curtailed by their desire for specialist training and frustration with resource shortages. There is currently little intention to move into the private sector. CONCLUSIONS: Future resourcing of postgraduate training opportunities is crucial to preventing emigration as graduate numbers increase. The lesser importance put on salary by younger doctors may be an indicator of the success of salary supplements. In order to retain doctors at district levels for longer, consideration should be given to the introduction of general practice/family medicine as a specialty. Returning specialists should be encouraged to engage with younger colleagues as role models and mentors.


Asunto(s)
Selección de Profesión , Países en Desarrollo , Educación de Postgrado en Medicina , Intención , Aspiraciones Psicológicas , Toma de Decisiones , Emigración e Inmigración/estadística & datos numéricos , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitales de Distrito , Humanos , Intercambio Educacional Internacional , Entrevistas como Asunto , Malaui , Área sin Atención Médica , Medicina/estadística & datos numéricos , Motivación , Médicos/provisión & distribución , Sector Privado , Población Rural/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Recursos Humanos
11.
Coll Antropol ; 32(1): 21-5, 2008 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18494184

RESUMEN

The rationale for investigating the gustatory reactivity as influenced by personality dimensions was suggested by some prior findings of an association between extraversion and acuity in other sensory systems. Detection thresholds for sweet, salty, and bitter qualities of taste were measured in 60 young healthy male and female volunteers using a two-alternative forced-choice technique. Personality of the responders was assessed using the Eysenck Personality Inventory. Multivariate analysis of variance failed to demonstrate a statistically significant interaction between an extraversion-introversion score, neuroticism score, smoking, gender and age. The only reliable negative association was found between the body mass index (BMI) and taste sensitivity (Roy's largest root = 0.05, F(7436.5) = 8.34, P = 0.003). Possible reasons for lack of differences between introverts and extraverts in the values of taste detection thresholds were discussed.


Asunto(s)
Extraversión Psicológica , Personalidad , Umbral Gustativo , Adolescente , Adulto , Índice de Masa Corporal , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino
12.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 96(6): 1512-1520, 2017 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28719284

RESUMEN

AbstractWe sought to identify independent, nonacademic predictors of medical and nursing student intent to migrate abroad or from rural to urban areas after graduation in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). This was a cross-sectional survey of 3,199 first- and final-year medical and nursing students at 16 training institutions in eight LMIC. Questionnaires assessed demographics, career intentions, and preferences regarding selected career, location, and work-related attributes. Using principal component analysis, student preferences were reduced into four discrete categories of priorities: 1) work environment resources, 2) location livability, 3) altruistic job values, and 4) individualistic job values. Students' preferences were scored in each category. Using students' characteristics and priority scores, multivariable proportional odds models were used to derive independent predictors of intentions to emigrate for work outside the country, or to work in a rural area in their native country. Students prioritizing individualistic values more often planned international careers (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.16-1.78), whereas those prioritizing altruistic values preferred rural careers (aOR = 1.82, 95% CI = 1.50-2.21). Trainees prioritizing high-resource environments preferentially planned careers abroad (aOR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.12-1.69) and were unlikely to seek rural work (aOR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.49-0.73). Independent of their priorities, students with prolonged prior rural residence were unlikely to plan emigration (aOR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50-0.90) and were more likely to plan a rural career (aOR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.16-2.03). We conclude that use of nonacademic attributes in medical and nursing admissions processes would likely increase retention in high-need rural areas and reduce emigration "brain drain" in LMIC.


Asunto(s)
Selección de Profesión , Emigración e Inmigración , Intención , Servicios de Salud Rural , Estudiantes de Medicina/psicología , Estudiantes de Enfermería/psicología , Adulto , África , Asia , Estudios Transversales , Educación de Pregrado en Medicina , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Lineales , Masculino , Análisis Multivariante , Análisis de Componente Principal , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Recursos Humanos , Adulto Joven
13.
Med Hypotheses ; 97: 102-106, 2016 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27876115

RESUMEN

The "first digit law" or "Benford's law" is a mathematical distribution discovered by Simon Newcomb and Frank Benford. It states, that the probability of the leading number d (d∈{1,…,9}) in many natural datasets follows: P (d)=log10 (d+1)-log10 (d)=log10 (1+1/d). It was successfully used through tax authorities and "forensic accounting" in order to detect fraud and other irregularities. Benfords law was almost neglected for its use outside financial accounting. The planning for health care systems in developing countries is extremely dependant on good, valid data. Whether you plan the catchment area for the future district hospitals, the number of health posts, the staff establishment for the central hospital or the drug budget in the Ministry. The "first digit law" can be used in medicine, public health, physiology and development aid to unmask questionable data, to discover unexpected challenges, difficulties in the data collection process, loss through corruption and criminal fraud. Our hypothesis suggests, that the "first digit law" is a cost effective tool, which is easy to use for most people in the medical profession, which does not really needs complicated statistical software and can be used on the spot, even in the resource restricted conditions of developing countries. Several preconditions (like the size of the data set and its reach over more than two dimensions) have to be fulfilled, but then Benfords law can be used by any clinician, physiologist, public health specialist or aid consultant without difficulties and without deeper statistical knowledge in the four steps, we suggest in this article. The consequences will be different depending on the level (local regional, national, continental, international) on which you will use the law. All levels will be enabled to get insight into the validity of the data-challenges for the other levels without the help of trained statisticians or accountants. We believe that the "first digit law" is a vastly underestimated and neglected, but extremely useful tool for the identification of unexpected challenges, supervision and control in various parts of medicine and public health for almost all aspects of development aid.


Asunto(s)
Medicina , Modelos Teóricos , Probabilidad , Salud Pública , Algoritmos , Comercio , Recolección de Datos , Bases de Datos Factuales , Brotes de Enfermedades , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/economía , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/terapia , Humanos , Malaria/economía , Malaria/terapia , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos Estadísticos
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