Local-scale phylodynamics reveal differential community impact of SARS-CoV-2 in a metropolitan US county.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape.

Acute SARS-CoV-2 infections harbor limited within-host diversity and transmit via tight transmission bottlenecks.

The emergence of divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages has raised concern that novel variants eliciting immune escape or the ability to displace circulating lineages could emerge within individual hosts. Though growing evidence suggests that novel variants arise during prolonged infections, most infections are acute. Understanding how efficiently variants emerge and transmit among acutely-infected hosts is therefore critical for predicting the pace of long-term SARS-CoV-2 evolution. To characterize how within-host diversity is generated and propagated, we combine extensive laboratory and bioinformatic controls with metrics of within- and between-host diversity to 133 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from acutely-infected individuals. We find that within-host diversity is low and transmission bottlenecks are narrow, with very few viruses founding most infections. Within-host variants are rarely transmitted, even among individuals within the same household, and are rarely detected along phylogenetically linked infections in the broader community. These findings suggest that most variation generated within-host is lost during transmission.

Quantifying within-host diversity of H5N1 influenza viruses in humans and poultry in Cambodia.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) periodically cross species barriers and infect humans. The likelihood that an AIV will evolve mammalian transmissibility depends on acquiring and selecting mutations during spillover, but data from natural infection is limited. We analyze deep sequencing data from infected humans and domestic ducks in Cambodia to examine how H5N1 viruses evolve during spillover. Overall, viral populations in both species are predominated by low-frequency (<10%) variation shaped by purifying selection and genetic drift, and half of the variants detected within-host are never detected on the H5N1 virus phylogeny. However, we do detect a subset of mutations linked to human receptor binding and replication (PB2 E627K, HA A150V, and HA Q238L) that arose in multiple, independent humans. PB2 E627K and HA A150V were also enriched along phylogenetic branches leading to human infections, suggesting that they are likely human-adaptive. Our data show that H5N1 viruses generate putative human-adapting mutations during natural spillover infection, many of which are detected at >5% frequency within-host. However, short infection times, genetic drift, and purifying selection likely restrict their ability to evolve extensively during a single infection. Applying evolutionary methods to sequence data, we reveal a detailed view of H5N1 virus adaptive potential, and develop a foundation for studying host-adaptation in other zoonotic viruses.

Genomic epidemiology supports multiple introductions and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Colombia was the second most affected country during the American Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic, with over 109,000 reported cases. Despite the scale of the outbreak, limited genomic sequence data were available from Colombia. We sought to sequence additional samples and use genomic epidemiology to describe ZIKV dynamics in Colombia. METHODS: We sequenced ZIKV genomes directly from clinical diagnostic specimens and infected Aedes aegypti samples selected to cover the temporal and geographic breadth of the Colombian outbreak. We performed phylogeographic analysis of these genomes, along with other publicly-available ZIKV genomes from the Americas, to estimate the frequency and timing of ZIKV introductions to Colombia. RESULTS: We attempted PCR amplification on 184 samples; 19 samples amplified sufficiently to perform sequencing. Of these, 8 samples yielded sequences with at least 50% coverage. Our phylogeographic reconstruction indicates two separate introductions of ZIKV to Colombia, one of which was previously unrecognized. We find that ZIKV was first introduced to Colombia in February 2015 (95%CI: Jan 2015 - Apr 2015), corresponding to 5 to 8 months of cryptic ZIKV transmission prior to confirmation in September 2015. Despite the presence of multiple introductions, we find that the majority of Colombian ZIKV diversity descends from a single introduction. We find evidence for movement of ZIKV from Colombia into bordering countries, including Peru, Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela. CONCLUSIONS: Similarly to genomic epidemiological studies of ZIKV dynamics in other countries, we find that ZIKV circulated cryptically in Colombia. More accurately dating when ZIKV was circulating refines our definition of the population at risk. Additionally, our finding that the majority of ZIKV transmission within Colombia was attributable to transmission between individuals, rather than repeated travel-related importations, indicates that improved detection and control might have succeeded in limiting the scale of the outbreak within Colombia.

Diversity of Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses in Infected Humans, Northern Vietnam, 2004-2010.

Influenza viruses exist in each host as a collection of genetically diverse variants, which might enhance their adaptive potential. To assess the genetic and functional diversity of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses within infected humans, we used deep-sequencing methods to characterize samples obtained from infected patients in northern Vietnam during 2004-2010 on different days after infection, from different anatomic sites, or both. We detected changes in virus genes that affected receptor binding, polymerase activity, or interferon antagonism, suggesting that these factors could play roles in influenza virus adaptation to humans. However, the frequency of most of these mutations remained low in the samples tested, implying that they were not efficiently selected within these hosts. Our data suggest that adaptation of influenza A(H5N1) viruses is probably stepwise and depends on accumulating combinations of mutations that alter function while maintaining fitness.

Within-Host Evolution of Simian Arteriviruses in Crab-Eating Macaques.

Simian arteriviruses are a diverse clade of viruses infecting captive and wild nonhuman primates. We recently reported that Kibale red colobus virus 1 (KRCV-1) causes a mild and self-limiting disease in experimentally infected crab-eating macaques, while simian hemorrhagic fever virus (SHFV) causes lethal viral hemorrhagic fever. Here we characterize how these viruses evolved during replication in cell culture and in experimentally infected macaques. During passage in cell culture, 68 substitutions that were localized in open reading frames (ORFs) likely associated with host cell entry and exit became fixed in the KRCV-1 genome. However, we did not detect any strong signatures of selection during replication in macaques. We uncovered patterns of evolution that were distinct from those observed in surveys of wild red colobus monkeys, suggesting that these species may exert different adaptive challenges for KRCV-1. During SHFV infection, we detected signatures of selection on ORF 5a and on a small subset of sites in the genome. Overall, our data suggest that patterns of evolution differ markedly among simian arteriviruses and among host species. IMPORTANCE: Certain RNA viruses can cross species barriers and cause disease in new hosts. Simian arteriviruses are a diverse group of related viruses that infect captive and wild nonhuman primates, with associated disease severity ranging from apparently asymptomatic infections to severe, viral hemorrhagic fevers. We infected nonhuman primate cell cultures and then crab-eating macaques with either simian hemorrhagic fever virus (SHFV) or Kibale red colobus virus 1 (KRCV-1) and assessed within-host viral evolution. We found that KRCV-1 quickly acquired a large number of substitutions in its genome during replication in cell culture but that evolution in macaques was limited. In contrast, we detected selection focused on SHFV ORFs 5a and 5, which encode putative membrane proteins. These patterns suggest that in addition to diverse pathogenic phenotypes, these viruses may also exhibit distinct patterns of within-host evolution both in vitro and in vivo.

Emergence of Oseltamivir-Resistant H7N9 Influenza Viruses in Immunosuppressed Cynomolgus Macaques.

Antiviral compounds (eg, the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir) are invaluable for the treatment of individuals infected with influenza A viruses of the H7N9 subtype (A[H7N9]), which have infected and killed hundreds of persons. However, oseltamivir treatment often leads to the emergence of resistant viruses in immunocompromised individuals. To better understand the emergence and properties of oseltamivir-resistant A(H7N9) viruses in immunosuppressed individuals, we infected immunosuppressed cynomolgus macaques with an A(H7N9) virus and treated them with oseltamivir. Disease severity and mortality were higher in immunosuppressed than in immunocompetent animals. Oseltamivir treatment at 2 different doses reduced A(H7N9) viral titers in infected animals, but even high-dose oseltamivir did not block viral replication sufficiently to suppress the emergence of resistant variants. Some resistant variants were not appreciably attenuated in cultured cells, but an oseltamivir-resistant A(H7N9) virus did not transmit among ferrets. These findings are useful for the control of A(H7N9) virus infections in clinical settings.

A Single Mutation in the VP1 of Enterovirus 71 Is Responsible for Increased Virulence and Neurotropism in Adult Interferon-Deficient Mice.

UNLABELLED: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread throughout the Asia-Pacific region, affecting millions of young children, who develop symptoms ranging from painful blisters around their mouths and hands to neurological complications. Many members of the genus Enterovirus (family Picornaviridae) cause HFMD. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is one of the primary causative agents and has been linked to severe disease. Vaccine efficacy and pathogenesis studies for EV71 have been limited because there is a lack of suitable animal models. Previously, we generated a mouse-adapted EV71 (mEV71) capable of infecting 12-week-old interferon receptor-deficient AG129 mice and used the model to evaluate the efficacy of candidate HFMD vaccines. Here, we present data investigating the genetic correlates of EV71 adaptation and characterize the virus's tissue tropism in mice. Using reverse genetics, a VP1 mutation (K244E) was shown to be necessary for mEV71 virulence in adult mice. Another VP1 mutation (H37R) was required for mEV71 recovery on rhabdomyosarcoma (RD) cells. Viral loads determined by real-time reverse transcription (RT)-PCR confirmed the presence of mEV71 in the sera and multiple organs of mice. Histological analysis revealed signs of meningitis and encephalitis, characteristic of severe human disease. The further description of this model has provided insight into EV71 pathogenesis and demonstrates the importance of the VP1 region in facilitating mEV71 adaptation. IMPORTANCE: EV71 is a reemerging pathogen, and little is known about the genetic determinants involved in its pathogenesis. The absence of animal models has contributed to this lack of knowledge. The data presented here improve upon the existing animal models by characterizing a mouse-adapted strain of EV71. We determined that a VP1 mutation (K244E) was needed for EV71 virulence in adult AG129 mice. While this mutation was found previously for EV71 adaptation in 5-day-old BALB/c mice, neurotropic disease did not develop. Using interferon-deficient mice, we raised the age of susceptibility beyond 6 weeks and provided clear evidence that our model mimics severe human infections. The model can be exploited to identify determinants of EV71 virulence and to reveal molecular mechanisms that control the virus-host interaction, especially those associated with neurotropic disease. Furthermore, these data provide useful information regarding the importance of VP1, specifically position 244, in host adaptation and tissue dissemination.

Deep Sequencing Reveals Potential Antigenic Variants at Low Frequencies in Influenza A Virus-Infected Humans.

UNLABELLED: Influenza vaccines must be frequently reformulated to account for antigenic changes in the viral envelope protein, hemagglutinin (HA). The rapid evolution of influenza virus under immune pressure is likely enhanced by the virus's genetic diversity within a host, although antigenic change has rarely been investigated on the level of individual infected humans. We used deep sequencing to characterize the between- and within-host genetic diversity of influenza viruses in a cohort of patients that included individuals who were vaccinated and then infected in the same season. We characterized influenza HA segments from the predominant circulating influenza A subtypes during the 2012-2013 (H3N2) and 2013-2014 (pandemic H1N1; H1N1pdm) flu seasons. We found that HA consensus sequences were similar in nonvaccinated and vaccinated subjects. In both groups, purifying selection was the dominant force shaping HA genetic diversity. Interestingly, viruses from multiple individuals harbored low-frequency mutations encoding amino acid substitutions in HA antigenic sites at or near the receptor-binding domain. These mutations included two substitutions in H1N1pdm viruses, G158K and N159K, which were recently found to confer escape from virus-specific antibodies. These findings raise the possibility that influenza antigenic diversity can be generated within individual human hosts but may not become fixed in the viral population even when they would be expected to have a strong fitness advantage. Understanding constraints on influenza antigenic evolution within individual hosts may elucidate potential future pathways of antigenic evolution at the population level. IMPORTANCE: Influenza vaccines must be frequently reformulated due to the virus's rapid evolution rate. We know that influenza viruses exist within each infected host as a "swarm" of genetically distinct viruses, but the role of this within-host diversity in the antigenic evolution of influenza has been unclear. We characterized here the genetic and potential antigenic diversity of influenza viruses infecting humans, some of whom became infected despite recent vaccination. Influenza virus between- and within-host genetic diversity was not significantly different in nonvaccinated and vaccinated humans, suggesting that vaccine-induced immunity does not exert strong selective pressure on viruses replicating in individual people. We found low-frequency mutations, below the detection threshold of traditional surveillance methods, in nonvaccinated and vaccinated humans that were recently associated with antibody escape. Interestingly, these potential antigenic variants did not reach fixation in infected people, suggesting that other evolutionary factors may be hindering their emergence in individual humans.

SNPGenie: estimating evolutionary parameters to detect natural selection using pooled next-generation sequencing data.

UNLABELLED: New applications of next-generation sequencing technologies use pools of DNA from multiple individuals to estimate population genetic parameters. However, no publicly available tools exist to analyse single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) calling results directly for evolutionary parameters important in detecting natural selection, including nucleotide diversity and gene diversity. We have developed SNPGenie to fill this gap. The user submits a FASTA reference sequence(s), a Gene Transfer Format (.GTF) file with CDS information and a SNP report(s) in an increasing selection of formats. The program estimates nucleotide diversity, distance from the reference and gene diversity. Sites are flagged for multiple overlapping reading frames, and are categorized by polymorphism type: nonsynonymous, synonymous, or ambiguous. The results allow single nucleotide, single codon, sliding window, whole gene and whole genome/population analyses that aid in the detection of positive and purifying natural selection in the source population. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: SNPGenie version 1.2 is a Perl program with no additional dependencies. It is free, open-source, and available for download at https://github.com/hugheslab/snpgenie. CONTACT: nelsoncw@email.sc.edu or austin@biol.sc.edu SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

SARS-CoV-2 evolution during prolonged infection in immunocompromised patients.

Prolonged infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in immunocompromised patients provides an opportunity for viral evolution, potentially leading to the generation of new pathogenic variants. To investigate the pathways of viral evolution, we carried out a study on five patients experiencing prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection (quantitative polymerase chain reaction-positive for 79-203 days) who were immunocompromised due to treatment for lymphoma or solid organ transplantation. For each timepoint analyzed, we generated at least two independent viral genome sequences to assess the heterogeneity and control for sequencing error. Four of the five patients likely had prolonged infection; the fifth apparently experienced a reinfection. The rates of accumulation of substitutions in the viral genome per day were higher in hospitalized patients with prolonged infection than those estimated for the community background. The spike coding region accumulated a significantly greater number of unique mutations than other viral coding regions, and the mutation density was higher. Two patients were treated with monoclonal antibodies (bebtelovimab and sotrovimab); by the next sampled timepoint, each virus population showed substitutions associated with monoclonal antibody resistance as the dominant forms (spike K444N and spike E340D). All patients received remdesivir, but remdesivir-resistant substitutions were not detected. These data thus help elucidate the trends of emergence, evolution, and selection of mutational variants within long-term infected immunocompromised individuals. IMPORTANCE: SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for a global pandemic, driven in part by the emergence of new viral variants. Where do these new variants come from? One model is that long-term viral persistence in infected individuals allows for viral evolution in response to host pressures, resulting in viruses more likely to replicate efficiently in humans. In this study, we characterize replication in several hospitalized and long-term infected individuals, documenting efficient pathways of viral evolution.

Deep mutational scanning of H5 hemagglutinin to inform influenza virus surveillance.

H5 influenza is considered a potential pandemic threat. Recently, H5 viruses belonging to clade 2.3.4.4b have caused large outbreaks in avian and multiple non-human mammalian species1,2. Previous studies have identified molecular phenotypes of the viral hemagglutinin (HA) protein that contribute to pandemic potential in humans, including cell entry, receptor preference, HA stability, and reduced neutralization by polyclonal sera3-6. However, prior experimental work has only measured how these phenotypes are affected by a handful of the >10,000 different possible amino-acid mutations to HA. Here we use pseudovirus deep mutational scanning7 to measure how all mutations to a 2.3.4.4b H5 HA affect each phenotype. We identify mutations that allow HA to better bind α2-6-linked sialic acids, and show that some viruses already carry mutations that stabilize HA. We also measure how all HA mutations affect neutralization by sera from mice and ferrets vaccinated against or infected with 2.3.4.4b H5 viruses. These antigenic maps enable rapid assessment of when new viral strains have acquired mutations that may create mismatches with candidate vaccine strains. Overall, the systematic nature of deep mutational scanning combined with the safety of pseudoviruses enables comprehensive measurements of the phenotypic effects of mutations that can inform real-time interpretation of viral variation observed during surveillance of H5 influenza.

Avian H7N9 influenza viruses are evolutionarily constrained by stochastic processes during replication and transmission in mammals.

H7N9 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have caused over 1,500 documented human infections since emerging in 2013. Although wild-type H7N9 AIVs can be transmitted by respiratory droplets in ferrets, they have not yet caused widespread outbreaks in humans. Previous studies have revealed molecular determinants of H7N9 AIV host switching, but little is known about potential evolutionary constraints on this process. Here, we compare patterns of sequence evolution for H7N9 AIV and mammalian H1N1 viruses during replication and transmission in ferrets. We show that three main factors-purifying selection, stochasticity, and very narrow transmission bottlenecks-combine to severely constrain the ability of H7N9 AIV to effectively adapt to mammalian hosts in isolated, acute spillover events. We find rare evidence of natural selection favoring new, potentially mammal-adapting mutations within ferrets but no evidence of natural selection acting during transmission. We conclude that human-adapted H7N9 viruses are unlikely to emerge during typical spillover infections. Our findings are instead consistent with a model in which the emergence of a human-transmissible virus would be a rare and unpredictable, though highly consequential, 'jackpot' event. Strategies to control the total number of spillover infections will limit opportunities for the virus to win this evolutionary lottery.

A multivalent nucleoside-modified mRNA vaccine against all known influenza virus subtypes.

Seasonal influenza vaccines offer little protection against pandemic influenza virus strains. It is difficult to create effective prepandemic vaccines because it is uncertain which influenza virus subtype will cause the next pandemic. In this work, we developed a nucleoside-modified messenger RNA (mRNA)-lipid nanoparticle vaccine encoding hemagglutinin antigens from all 20 known influenza A virus subtypes and influenza B virus lineages. This multivalent vaccine elicited high levels of cross-reactive and subtype-specific antibodies in mice and ferrets that reacted to all 20 encoded antigens. Vaccination protected mice and ferrets challenged with matched and mismatched viral strains, and this protection was at least partially dependent on antibodies. Our studies indicate that mRNA vaccines can provide protection against antigenically variable viruses by simultaneously inducing antibodies against multiple antigens.

Local-Scale phylodynamics reveal differential community impact of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan US county.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape.

Repeated introductions and intensive community transmission fueled a mumps virus outbreak in Washington State.

In 2016/2017, Washington State experienced a mumps outbreak despite high childhood vaccination rates, with cases more frequently detected among school-aged children and members of the Marshallese community. We sequenced 166 mumps virus genomes collected in Washington and other US states, and traced mumps introductions and transmission within Washington. We uncover that mumps was introduced into Washington approximately 13 times, primarily from Arkansas, sparking multiple co-circulating transmission chains. Although age and vaccination status may have impacted transmission, our data set could not quantify their precise effects. Instead, the outbreak in Washington was overwhelmingly sustained by transmission within the Marshallese community. Our findings underscore the utility of genomic data to clarify epidemiologic factors driving transmission and pinpoint contact networks as critical for mumps transmission. These results imply that contact structures and historic disparities may leave populations at increased risk for respiratory virus disease even when a vaccine is effective and widely used.

Viral genomes reveal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Washington State.

The rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has gravely affected societies around the world. Outbreaks in different parts of the globe have been shaped by repeated introductions of new viral lineages and subsequent local transmission of those lineages. Here, we sequenced 3940 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from Washington State (USA) to characterize how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State in early 2020 was shaped by differences in timing of mitigation strategies across counties and by repeated introductions of viral lineages into the state. In addition, we show that the increase in frequency of a potentially more transmissible viral variant (614G) over time can potentially be explained by regional mobility differences and multiple introductions of 614G but not the other variant (614D) into the state. At an individual level, we observed evidence of higher viral loads in patients infected with the 614G variant. However, using clinical records data, we did not find any evidence that the 614G variant affects clinical severity or patient outcomes. Overall, this suggests that with regard to D614G, the behavior of individuals has been more important in shaping the course of the pandemic in Washington State than this variant of the virus.

Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington state.

After its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late November or early December 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus rapidly spread globally. Genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 allows the reconstruction of its transmission history, although this is contingent on sampling. We analyzed 453 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between 20 February and 15 March 2020 from infected patients in Washington state in the United States. We find that most SARS-CoV-2 infections sampled during this time derive from a single introduction in late January or early February 2020, which subsequently spread locally before active community surveillance was implemented.

Viral genomes reveal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Washington State.

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 has gravely impacted societies around the world. Outbreaks in different parts of the globe are shaped by repeated introductions of new lineages and subsequent local transmission of those lineages. Here, we sequenced 3940 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from Washington State to characterize how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State (USA) was shaped by differences in timing of mitigation strategies across counties, as well as by repeated introductions of viral lineages into the state. Additionally, we show that the increase in frequency of a potentially more transmissible viral variant (614G) over time can potentially be explained by regional mobility differences and multiple introductions of 614G, but not the other variant (614D) into the state. At an individual level, we see evidence of higher viral loads in patients infected with the 614G variant. However, using clinical records data, we do not find any evidence that the 614G variant impacts clinical severity or patient outcomes. Overall, this suggests that at least to date, the behavior of individuals has been more important in shaping the course of the pandemic than changes in the virus.