Changes in firearm mortality following the implementation of state laws regulating firearm access and use.

Although 39,000 individuals die annually from gunshots in the US, research examining the effects of laws designed to reduce these deaths has sometimes produced inconclusive or contradictory findings. We evaluated the effects on total firearm-related deaths of three classes of gun laws: child access prevention (CAP), right-to-carry (RTC), and stand your ground (SYG) laws. The analyses exploit changes in these state-level policies from 1970 to 2016, using Bayesian methods and a modeling approach that addresses several methodological limitations of prior gun policy evaluations. CAP laws showed the strongest evidence of an association with firearm-related death rate, with a probability of 0.97 that the death rate declined at 6 y after implementation. In contrast, the probability of being associated with an increase in firearm-related deaths was 0.87 for RTC laws and 0.77 for SYG laws. The joint effects of these laws indicate that the restrictive gun policy regime (having a CAP law without an RTC or SYG law) has a 0.98 probability of being associated with a reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive policy regime. This estimated effect corresponds to an 11% reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive legal regime. Our findings suggest that a small but meaningful decrease in firearm-related deaths may be associated with the implementation of more restrictive gun policies.

Impact on Nonfirearm Deaths of Firearm Laws Affecting Firearm Deaths: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background. There is debate whether policies that reduce firearm suicides or homicides are offset by increases in non-firearm-related deaths.Objectives. To assess the extent to which changes in firearm homicides and suicides following implementation of various gun laws affect nonfirearm homicides and suicides.Search Methods. We performed a literature search on 13 databases for studies published between 1995 and October 31, 2018 (PROSPERO CRD42019120105).Selection Criteria. We included studies if they (1) estimated an effect of 1 of 18 included classes of gun policy on firearm homicides or suicides, (2) included a control group or comparison group and evaluated time series data to establish that policies preceded their purported effects, and (3) provided estimated effects of the policy and inferential statistics for either total or nonfirearm homicides or suicides.Data Collection and Analysis. We extracted data from each study, including study timeframe, population, and statistical methods, as well as point estimates and inferential statistics for the effects of firearm policies on firearm deaths as well as either nonfirearm or overall deaths. We assessed quality at the estimate (study-policy-outcome) level by using prespecified criteria to evaluate the validity of inference and causal identification. For each estimate, we derived the mortality multiplier (i.e., the ratio of the policy's effect on total homicides or suicides; expressed as a change in the number of deaths) as a proportion of its effect on firearm homicides or suicides. Finally, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate overall mortality multipliers for suicide and homicide that account for both within- and between-study heterogeneity.Main Results. We identified 16 eligible studies (study timeframes spanning 1977-2015). All examined state-level policies in the United States, with most estimating effects of multiple policies, yielding 60 separate estimates of the mortality multiplier. From these, we estimated that a firearm law's effect on homicide, expressed as a change in the number of total homicide deaths, is 0.99 (95% confidence interval = 0.76, 1.22) times its effect on the number of firearm homicides. Thus, on average, changes in the number of firearm homicides caused by gun policies are neither offset nor compounded by second-order effects on nonfirearm homicides. There is insufficient evidence in the existing literature on suicide to indicate the extent to which the effects of gun policy changes on firearm suicides are offset or compounded by their effects on nonfirearm suicides.Authors' Conclusions. State gun policies that reduce firearm homicides are likely to reduce overall homicides in the state by approximately the same number. It is currently unknown whether the same holds for state gun policies that significantly reduce firearm suicides. The small number of studies meeting our inclusion criteria, issues of methodological quality within those studies, and the possibility of reporting bias are potential limitations of this review.Public Health Implications. Policies that reduce firearm homicides likely have large benefits for public health as there is little evidence to support a strong substitution effect between firearm and nonfirearm homicides at the population level. Further research is needed to determine whether policies that produce population-level reductions in firearm suicides will translate to overall declines in suicide rates.

A New Era for Firearm Violence Prevention Research.

This Viewpoint discusses the expansion of firearm injury research that involves diverse disciplinary perspectives that could potentially lead to lifesaving policy innovation.

Geographic and Demographic Differences in the Proportion of Individuals Living in Households With a Firearm, 1990-2018.

Importance: Measures of the proportion of individuals living in households with a firearm (HFR), over time, across states, and by demographic groups are needed to evaluate disparities in firearm violence and the effects of firearm policies. Objective: To estimate HFR across states, years, and demographic groups in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this survey study, substate HFR totals from 1990 to 2018 were estimated using bayesian multilevel regression with poststratification to analyze survey data on HFR from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the General Social Survey. HFR was estimated for 16 substate demographic groups defined by gender, race, marital status, and urbanicity in each state and year. Exposures: Survey responses indicating household firearm ownership were analyzed and compared with a common proxy for firearm ownership, the fraction of suicides completed with a firearm (FSS). Main Outcome and Measure: HFR, FSS, and their correlations and differences. Results: Among US adults in 2018, HFR was significantly higher among married, nonurban, non-Hispanic White and American Indian male individuals (65.0%; 95% credible interval [CI], 61.5%-68.7%) compared with their unmarried, urban, female counterparts from other racial and ethnic groups (7.3%; 95% CIs, 6.0%-9.2%). Marginal HFR rates for larger demographic groups also revealed important differences, with racial minority groups and urban dwellers having less than half the HFR of either White and American Indian (39.5%; 95% CI, 37.4%-42.9% vs 17.2%; 95% CI, 15.5%-19.9%) or nonurban populations (46.0%; 95% CI, 43.8%-49.5% vs 23.1%; 95% CI, 21.3%-26.2%). Population growth among groups less likely to own firearms, rather than changes in ownership within demographic groups, explains 30% of the 7 percentage point decline in HFR nationally from 1990 to 2018. Comparing HFR estimates with FSS revealed the expected high overall correlation across states (r = 0.84), but scaled FSS differed from HFR by as many as 20 percentage points for some states and demographic groups. Conclusions and Relevance: This survey study of HFR providing detailed, publicly available HFR estimates highlights key disparities among individuals in households with firearms across states and demographic groups; it also identifies potential biases in the use of FSS as a proxy for firearm ownership rates. These findings are essential for researchers, policymakers, and public health experts looking to address geographic and demographic disparities in firearm violence.

Gender Differences in Health Among U.S. Service Members: Unwanted Gender-Based Experiences as an Explanatory Factor.

Women serving in the U.S. military are more likely to report mental health problems than men, including symptoms of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Women also experience much higher rates of sexual harassment, gender discrimination, and sexual assault than men. This study examines how unwanted gender-based experiences among military service members relate to differences in health. The authors find that, once experiences of gender discrimination, sexual harassment, and sexual assault are accounted for, gender differences in health are largely attenuated. That is, the vulnerability to physical and mental health problems among female service members appears to be highly correlated with these unwanted gender-based experiences. The results highlight the possible health benefits of improved prevention of gender discrimination, sexual harassment, and sexual assault, and they indicate the need to address the mental and physical health of service members exposed to these types of experiences.

Racial and ethnic differences in the effects of state firearm laws: a systematic review subgroup analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite growing evidence about how state-level firearm regulations affect overall rates of injury and death, little is known about whether potential harms or benefits of firearm laws are evenly distributed across demographic subgroups. In this systematic review, we synthesized available evidence on the extent to which firearm policies produce differential effects by race and ethnicity on injury, recreational or defensive gun use, and gun ownership or purchasing behaviors. MAIN BODY: We searched 13 databases for English-language studies published between 1995 and February 28, 2023 that estimated a relationship between firearm policy in the USA and one of eight outcomes, included a comparison group, evaluated time series data, and provided estimated policy effects differentiated by race or ethnicity. We used pre-specified criteria to evaluate the quality of inference and causal effect identification. By policy and outcome, we compared policy effects across studies and across racial/ethnic groups using two different ways to express effect sizes: incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and rate differences. Of 182 studies that used quasi-experimental methods to evaluate firearm policy effects, only 15 estimated policy effects differentiated by race or ethnicity. These 15 eligible studies provided 57 separate policy effect comparisons across race/ethnicity, 51 of which evaluated interpersonal violence. In IRR terms, there was little consistent evidence that policies produced significantly different effects for different racial/ethnic groups. However, because of different baseline homicide rates, similar relative effects for some policies (e.g., universal background checks) translated into significantly greater absolute differences in homicide rates among Black compared to white victims. CONCLUSIONS: The current literature does not support strong conclusions about whether state firearm policies differentially benefit or harm particular racial/ethnic groups. This largely reflects limited attention to these questions in the literature and challenges with detecting such effects given existing data availability and statistical power. Findings also emphasize the need for additional rigorous research that adopts a more explicit focus on testing for racial differences in firearm policy effects and that assesses the quality of race/ethnicity information in firearm injury and crime datasets.

Better data, less gun violence.

For 25 years, the US government funded little research on firearm violence prevention. Although some dedicated researchers made important discoveries over this period, the scale of the research effort was not commensurate with the problem. Recently, however, there has been an unprecedented surge in research funding: the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research, a private philanthropy, has awarded more than $21 million since 2018; the federal government has committed $25 million per year since 2019; and some states and other philanthropies have recently invested in such research programs.

Symptoms of Depression and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder as Predictors of Separation from the U.S. Military.

Populations affected by psychological distress are at risk of adverse career outcomes. The authors use data from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study and administrative personnel records of 17,502 U.S. military service members from 2014 to 2016 to evaluate the relationship between self-reported symptoms of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the U.S. military and subsequent service member separation rates. The authors find that self-reported symptoms of depression and PTSD were significantly associated with the odds of service member separation from the U.S. military. The odds that service members with symptoms suggestive of depressive disorders would separate from the military within the next 28 months were 2.62 times greater than the odds of service members with no symptoms of depression (95-percent confidence interval [CI] = 2.12, 3.22). Also, the odds that service members who reported symptoms of PTSD would separate from the military were 2.14 times greater than the odds of service members with no such symptoms (CI = 1.82, 2.51). The study's findings suggest that depression and PTSD symptoms, including subclinical symptoms, are related to subsequent separation from the military. Addressing mental-health needs could reduce negative employment outcomes that are costly for both the military and individual service members.

Inpatient Hospitalizations for Firearm Injury: Estimating State-Level Rates from 2000 to 2016.

One particular challenge for gun policy researchers is the lack of a single resource that provides reliable estimates of state-level firearm injuries over time. The data that do exist are sparse across state-years and cost-prohies affect deaths and injuries in the same manner. As part of the Gun Policy in America initiative, RAND researchers developed a publicly available longitudinal database of state-level estimates of inpatient hospitalizations that occur as a result of firearm injury. This article describes the methods that the researchers used to construct the estimates and provides technical documentation and other information that will facilitate use of the database.

Comparing the Army's Suicide Rate to the General U.S. Population: Identifying Suitable Characteristics, Data Sources, and Analytic Approaches.

Over the past 15 years, the suicide rate among members of the U.S. armed forces has doubled, with the greatest increase observed among soldiers in the Army. This increasing rate is paralleled by a smaller increase in the general U.S. population, observed across both genders, in virtually every age group and in nearly every state. An empirical question exists: What is the extent or degree to which the suicide trend in the Army is unique to that service, relative to what is observed in the general U.S. population? The Army has typically attempted to address this question by standardizing the general population to look like the Army on demographic characteristics. However, given the rise in suicide rates over the past decade, the Army wanted to better understand whether standardization based solely on age and gender is enough. Expanding the characteristics on which the general population is standardized to match the Army could be useful to gain a better understanding of the suicide trends in the Army. However, such a change also brings with it some challenges, including the lack of readily available data in the general U.S. population. In addition, even an expanded set of characteristics still results in having a large number of unmeasured factors that cannot be included in this type of analysis. In this study, the authors explore how accounting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, time, marital status, and educational attainment affects suicide rate differences between soldiers and a comparable subset of the general U.S. population.

Seven-year life outcomes of adolescent offenders in Los Angeles.

OBJECTIVES: We examined important life outcomes for adolescent offenders to describe how they were faring in young adulthood. METHODS: We assessed 449 adolescent offenders (aged 13-17 years) in Los Angeles, CA, whose cases had been adjudicated by the Los Angeles Superior Court and who had been referred to group homes between February 1999 and May 2000. We used the Global Appraisal of Individual Needs to interview respondents at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, 72, and 87 months after baseline. A total of 395 respondents (88%) were interviewed or confirmed as dead at the final interview. RESULTS: At final interview, 12 respondents had died, 7 of them from gunshot wounds. Thirty-six percent of respondents reported recent hard drug use, and 27% reported 5 or more symptoms of substance dependence. Sixty-six percent reported committing an illegal activity within the previous year, 37% reported being arrested within the previous year, and 25% reported being in jail or prison every day for the previous 90 days. Fifty-eight percent had completed high school or obtained a GED, and 63% reported working at a job in the previous year. CONCLUSIONS: The high rates of negative life outcomes presented here suggest the need for more effective rehabilitation programs for juvenile offenders.

The longitudinal association between substance use and delinquency among high-risk youth.

Over the past two decades, studies have provided evidence for the strong link between substance use (SU) and delinquency among adolescents. However, the dynamics of this relationship and its temporal ordering remain unclear. The current study used four waves of data collected from high-risk youth over a 12-month period to examine the temporal association between SU and delinquency. Youth (n=449) were recruited from the Los Angeles juvenile probation system. The majority of the sample was male (87%), with 43% Hispanic, 16% White, 15% African American, and 26% of participants describing themselves as some other ethnicity. We estimated a series of cross-lagged path models using maximum likelihood estimation and controlled for gender, age, ethnicity, and time spent in a controlled environment during the study period. We estimated models examining the cross-lagged association between SU and drug-related crime, interpersonal crime, and property crime. The temporal relationship between SU and delinquency was similar across the three types of crime, thus we estimated a fourth model examining the relationship between SU and a latent delinquency variable indicated by the three crime scales. Findings indicated that the relationship between SU and delinquency was reciprocal at each time point, suggesting that the reciprocal effects of SU and delinquency appear to be fairly stable over time.

Inconsistencies in self-reported drug use by adolescents in substance abuse treatment: implications for outcome and performance measurements.

This article presents an analysis of logical inconsistencies in adolescents' reporting of recent substance use to assess the potential effect of inaccurate reporting on measures of treatment outcomes and program performance. We used data on 1,463 clients from 10 adolescent treatment programs to assess the relationship between inconsistent reports and various factors that contribute to program assignment and treatment outcomes. Our results suggest that inconsistencies do not arise at random. Instead, inconsistencies are associated with program assignment and factors widely considered to influence treatment outcomes, including age at first use, living situation, race/ethnicity, and mental distress. We also found a positive relationship between level of inconsistent reporting of drug use and self-reports of improvement over time on several well-established treatment outcome measures. Our study highlights the need for greater awareness on the potential impact of inaccuracies in the reporting of substance use on outcome and performance measurements and that for the development of methodologies to improve accuracy.

A prospective investigation of suicide ideation, attempts, and use of mental health service among adolescents in substance abuse treatment.

This study examined suicide ideation, attempts, and subsequent mental health service among a sample of 948 youth from substance abuse treatment facilities across the United States. Youth were surveyed at intake and every 3 months for a 1-year period. Thirty percent of youth reported ideating in at least one interview, and 12% reported attempting suicide; almost half of all youth reported receiving outpatient mental health treatment at least once, and close to one-third of all youth reported being on prescription drugs for an emotional or behavioral problem. Higher levels of conduct disorder symptoms were associated with both ideation and attempts, while higher levels of depressive symptoms and being female were associated with ideation only. Among all youth, older youth were less likely to receive outpatient and prescription drug treatment, and Black and Hispanic youth were less likely to receive prescription drug treatment than White youth. Among youth who reported ideating, those with conduct disorder were less likely to receive prescription drug treatment 3 months later. These findings emphasize a high prevalence of suicide risk behavior in substance abuse treatment programs and provide insight into the specialized treatment youth in substance abuse treatment at risk for suicide currently receive.

Comparison of Suicide Rates Among US Veteran and Nonveteran Populations.

This quality improvement study uses data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs to compare the relative risk of suicide among US veteran and nonveteran populations.

Interpreting treatment effects when cases are institutionalized after treatment.

Drug treatment clients are at high risk for institutionalization, i.e., spending a day or more in a controlled environment where their freedom to use drugs, commit crimes, or engage in risky behavior may be circumscribed. For example, in recent large studies of drug treatment outcomes, more than 40% of participants were institutionalized for a portion of the follow-up period. When longitudinal studies ignore institutionalization at follow-up, outcome measures and treatment effect estimates conflate treatment effects on institutionalization with effects on many of the outcomes of interest. In this paper, we develop a causal modeling framework for evaluating the four standard approaches for addressing this institutionalization confound, and illustrate the effects of each approach using a case study comparing drug use outcomes of youths who enter either residential or outpatient treatment modalities. Common methods provide biased estimates of the treatment effect except under improbable assumptions. In the case study, the effect of residential care ranged from beneficial and significant to detrimental and significant depending on the approach used to account for institutionalization. We discuss the implications of our analysis for longitudinal studies of all populations at high risk for institutionalization.

Contingencies for change in complacent smokers.

The majority of smokers have no plans to quit in the near future. These complacent smokers are less likely to quit than other smokers, and few interventions are known to reduce smoking in this population. Although monetary incentives can reduce complacent smokers' breath carbon monoxide (BCO) levels, it is not clear whether these effects can be sustained beyond the several weeks that past studies have examined. The authors compared complacent smokers randomly assigned to receive incentives for BCO reductions (n=18) or noncontingent incentives (n=19) for 3 months. Contingent incentives were associated with (a) reduced BCO; (b) more BCO samples indicative of abstinence; (c) fewer cigarettes smoked and more days abstinent at study end; and (d) lower salivary cotinine. These behaviors can predict future cessation, and 2 of the 18 smokers (11%) receiving BCO-contingent incentives reported quitting as compared with none in the control group. Contingency management procedures, such as those used here, may effectively promote cessation among complacent smokers and provide a model for understanding the possible effects of some environmental interventions (like workplace smoking bans) on the behavior of complacent smokers.

The efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI court: a 2-year field experiment.

This study reports results from an evaluation of the experimental Rio Hondo driving under the influence (DUI) court of Los Angeles County, California. Interviews and official record checks with 284 research participants who were randomly assigned to a DUI court or a traditional criminal court were assessed at baseline and at 24-month follow-up. The interviews assessed the impact of the DUI court on self-reported drunk driving behavior, the completion of treatment, time spent in jail, alcohol use, and stressful life events. Official record checks assessed the impact of the DUI court on subsequent arrests for driving under the influence and other drinking-related behaviors. Few differences on any outcomes were observed between participants in the experimental DUI court and those assigned to the traditional court. The results suggest that the DUI court model had little additional therapeutic or public safety benefit over the traditional court process. The implication of these findings for the popularity of specialized courts for treating social problems is discussed.