Real-world economic evaluation of prospective rapid whole-genome sequencing compared to a matched retrospective cohort of critically ill pediatric patients in the United States.

There is an increasing demand for supporting the adoption of rapid whole-genome sequencing (rWGS) by demonstrating its real-world value. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of rWGS in critically ill pediatric patients with diseases of unknown cause. Data were collected prospectively of patients admitted to the Nicklaus Children's Hospital's intensive care units from March 2018 to September 2020, with rWGS (N = 65). Comparative data were collected in a matched retrospective cohort with standard diagnostic genetic testing. We determined total costs, diagnostic yield (DY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) adjusted for selection bias and right censoring. Sensitivity analyses explored the robustness of ICER through bootstrapping. rWGS resulted in a diagnosis in 39.8% while standard testing in 13.5% (p = 0.026). rWGS resulted in a mean saving per person of $100,440 (SE = 26,497, p < 0.001) and a total of $6.53 M for 65 patients. rWGS in critically ill pediatric patients is cost-effective, cost-saving, shortens diagnostic odyssey, and triples the DY of traditional approaches.

Association of frailty with health service utilisation and health care expenditure in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Côte d'Ivoire.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, a syndrome resulting in heightened risk of negative outcomes for older adults, is increasing across the globe. However, little is known about the health service impacts of frailty in low-income countries (LICs), and in particular, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study explores the relationship between frailty and health service 1) utilisation and 2) expenditure within Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: Participants aged 50 years and over participated in the Living Condition, Health and Resilience among the Elderly study. Frailty was assessed using a 30-item Frailty Index (FI). The association between frailty and self-reported health service utilisation was analysed for general practitioners (GPs), specialists, overnight hospitalisations, traditional practitioners and self-medication. Expenditure over the previous month included consulting, medications, hospitalisations and total expenditure. RESULTS: Among participants [n = 860, mean age (SD) = 61.8 (9.7) years, 42.9% female], 60.0% were frail, 22.8% pre-frail and 17.2% robust. The mean (SD) FI was 0.28 (0.17). Increased health service utilisation was associated with frailty for GP attendance, traditional practitioners and self-medication but not specialists or overnight hospitalisation. Pre-frailty and frailty were associated with increased total health service expenditure, with frailty also associated with aggregate consulting costs and medications. CONCLUSIONS: Although frailty is associated with health service utilisation and expenditure in a variety of contexts, the study results suggest that such impacts may vary across the globe. The experience of frailty in LICs is likely to differ from that experienced elsewhere due to cultural traditions, attitudes to the health system, and accessibility, with more research needed.

Self-assessed life expectancy among older adults in Côte d'Ivoire.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to estimate individuals' expected longevity based on self-assessed survival probabilities and determine the predictors of such subjective life expectancy in a sample of elderly people (50 years and older) in Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: Paper-based questionnaires were administered to a sample (n = 267) of older adults residing in the city of Dabou, Côte d'Ivoire in May 2017. Information on subjective expectations regarding health, comorbidities, and self-assessed survival probabilities was collected. We estimated self-assessed life expectancy and its determinants using a two-pronged approach by: (i) estimating individuals' life expectancy using the self-assessed survival probabilities (SSPs), and (ii) applying a finite mixture of regression models to form homogenous groups of individuals (clusters/components) and investigate the determinants. A spline-based approach was used to estimate the overall distribution of life expectancy for each individual using two to four points of self-assessed survival probabilities. A finite mixture of regression models was used to identify homogeneous groups of individuals (i.e. clusters/components) of the overall subjective life expectancy distribution of the study participants. RESULTS: The mean subjective life expectancy in older people varied according to four components/clusters. The average subjective life expectancy among the elderly was 79.51, 78.89, 80.02, and 77.79 years in the first, second, third, and fourth component of the subjects' overall subjective life expectancy, respectively. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and lifestyle on subjective life expectancy varied across components. For instance, a U-shape relationship between household per capita income and subjective life expectancy was found for individuals classified into the third component, and an inverse U-shape relationship was found for individuals classified into the fourth component. CONCLUSIONS: We extended the estimation of subjective life expectancy by accounting for heterogeneity in the distribution of the estimated subjective life expectancy. This approach improved the usual methods for estimating individual subjective life expectancies and may provide insight into the elderly's perception of aging, which could be used to forecast the demand for health services and long-term care needs.

Elicitation of electricity consumption habit formation among new subscribers.

In this study, our aim is to explore the formation of electricity consumption habits in Cote d'Ivoire, specifically focusing on new subscribers. The growth of residential electricity consumption globally has been influenced by these habits, which can lead to inertia and inefficient energy usage. Using the unique database of the National Electricity Company, we uncover that electricity consumption habits exhibit a high level of persistence, and this persistence tends to strengthen over time. These findings highlight the need to develop policies that encourage electricity efficiency among new subscribers, to combat energy inefficiency and foster positive consumption habits at the household level.

Does solar home system promote entrepreneurship in off-grid areas?

In Côte d'Ivoire, only 31.3% of peoples living in rural areas have access to the grid electricity. With the potential of solar energy of the country, the solar home system provides a crucial alternative that is being exploited by households. This paper analyses the effect of the adoption of solar home system on entrepreneurship in off-grid areas using the data from the 2015's Living Standard Measurement Survey of Côte d'Ivoire. The estimates show that access to solar home system increases by 6.5% points the probability of engaging in entrepreneurial activities. This result holds for the trade, industry, and service sectors, while there is no evidence for the agricultural sector. Hence, the expansion of solar home system - as alternative to electricity grid in off-grid areas - has benefits for alleviating poverty via the promotion of entrepreneurship.

Development and validation of a tool to predict high-need, high-cost patients hospitalised with ischaemic heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a tool to predict patients with ischaemic heart disease (IHD) at risk of excessive healthcare resource utilisation. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: We identified patients through the State of Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (N=586 518) inpatient dataset. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients (at least 40 years of age) admitted to the hospital with a diagnosis of IHD between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We identified patients whose healthcare utilisation is higher than presumed (analysis of residuals) and used logistic regression (binary and multinomial) in estimating the predictive models to classify individual as high-need, high-care (HNHC) patients relative to inpatient visits (frequency of hospitalisation), cost and hospital length of stay. Discrimination power, prediction accuracy and model improvement for the binary logistic model were assessed using receiver operating characteristic statistic, the Brier score and the log-likelihood (LL)-based pseudo-R2, respectively. LL-based pseudo-R2 and Brier score were used for multinomial logistic models. RESULTS: The binary logistic model had good discrimination power (c-statistic=0.6496), an accuracy of probabilistic predictions (Brier score) of 0.0621 and an LL-based pseudo-R2 of 0.0338 in the development cohort. The model performed similarly in the validation cohort (c-statistic=0.6480), an accuracy of probabilistic predictions (Brier score) of 0.0620 and an LL-based pseudo-R2 of 0.0380. A user-friendly Excel-based HNHC risk predictive tool was developed and readily available for clinicians and policy decision-makers. CONCLUSIONS: The Excel-based HNHC risk predictive tool can accurately identify at-risk patients for HNHC based on three measures of healthcare expenditures.

Effects, trends, costs associated with readmission in early-aged patients with suicidal ideation.

OBJECTIVE: To examine determinants, trends, and costs associated with 30-day all-cause readmission (R) for suicidal ideation (SI) in early-aged patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using the 2010-2014 Nationwide Readmissions Database. Discharge records for those aged 5-24 with an SI diagnosis were analyzed. Hierarchical models (HMs) were used to assess factors of R, length of stay (LOS), and total costs of Rs. RESULTS: There were 197,603 SI index admissions (IAs). Of these, 2% had a R. The annualized trend of R rates for all age groups remained constant. Those aged 13-18 had the highest rate of Rs, while IA and R mean total costs were highest for those aged 5-12 (IA, $4,546-$5,822; R, $5,361-$7,113). The strongest risk factors for increasing R included nonelective admission and private hospital ownership. The strongest risk factors for increasing LOS and cost were major/extreme severity of illness and 30-day all-cause R. The intracluster correlation coefficient for the HMs were 0.06, 0.33, and 0.55 for the R, LOS, and cost model, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The R rate was highest for those in the 13-18 age group, while the costs were highest for those aged 5-12.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of radiotherapy among older women with hormone receptor positive early-stage breast cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to examine the real-world cost-effectiveness of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) plus hormonal therapy with radiotherapy, compared to hormonal therapy alone among women 66 and older with hormone receptor positive early-stage breast cancer in the United States (US). METHODS: This study was conducted from a U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services perspective and an eight-year time horizon. Both costs (2020 US$) and health utilities (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) were obtained from retrospective studies using the SEER linked with Medicare and Medicare Health Outcomes Survey, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the addition of radiotherapy to hormonal therapy versus hormonal therapy alone after BCS was estimated by an unbiased doubly robust estimator. Sensitivity analyses were conducted through bootstrapping to estimate credible intervals. RESULTS: The addition of radiotherapy to hormonal therapy after BCS yielded the highest clinical benefits (2.66 QALYs) and costs ($19,424.27) compared to its hormonal therapy alone after BCS (0.77 QALYS; $2,028.58). The ICER was estimated to be $9,174.94/QALY. Sensitivity analyses did not change the direction of the findings. CONCLUSIONS: The results implicated that the combination of radiotherapy and hormonal therapy is cost-effective in the US.

Prevalence and effects of suicidal ideation diagnosis code position in claims on readmission rate estimates.

BACKGROUND: Suicidal ideation (SI) is a major health concern in children, adolescents, and young adults (CAYA) population. Inaccurate estimates of SI-related hospital readmission rates may contribute to inappropriate allocation of resources for the prevention of future readmissions. The estimation of these readmission rates using claims data may be sensitive to the diagnosis code position used to establish analytic cohorts. OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence and effects of SI diagnosis code position in claims on 30-day readmission rates using the Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD). METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using the NRD (2010-2015). We established six cohorts of hospitalized CAYA (5-24 years old) with a diagnosis of SI based on different combinations of SI diagnosis code (ICD-9 code V62.84) positions in claims. Thirty-day hospital readmission rates following an index SI discharge were estimated for each cohort. We tested the null hypothesis that hospital readmission rates following an index SI discharge are not sensitive to diagnosis code positions using a test for equality of proportions between the predefined SI cohorts. RESULTS: The prevalence of SI diagnosis codes increased yearly from 2.9% in 2010 to 5.8% in 2015. SI hospital readmission rates ranged from 0 to 41.1 per 1000 index events based on cohort definitions (i.e. diagnosis code positions). We rejected the null hypothesis that SI-related readmission rates are not sensitive to diagnosis code positions. CONCLUSION: SI-related readmission rate estimates are sensitive to SI diagnosis code positions. Determining appropriate diagnostic positions can further improve readmission analyses for SI and its applications in healthcare policies.

Cost-effectiveness of treatments for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer and associated metastases: an overview of systematic reviews.

Introduction: Treatment of human epithelial growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer has rapidly evolved over the past decades with the addition of trastuzumab, lapatinib, pertuzumab, and trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1). These treatments have dramatically impacted the survival of HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (mBC) patients. Nonetheless, these agents are associated with high price tags, begging the question, 'Are treatments for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer and associated metastases cost-effective'?Areas covered: We examine evidence on the cost-effectiveness of treatments for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer and associated metastases through a review of systematic reviews on the topic. Additionally, we discuss the implications of our findings and provide recommendations for future directions in the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of targeted directed agents for HER2-positive mBC.Expert opinion: Heterogeneous evidence from cost-effectiveness studies on the use of targeted directed agents for HER2-positive mBC across the world caution against cross-country comparisons of the value of such treatments. It also militates in favor of the production and use of cost-effectiveness analyses for local rather than global decision-making, thus ensuring that economic evaluations reflect the needs of local decision-makers and populations for which they are devised.

A pharmacovigilance study to quantify the strength of association between the combination of antimalarial drugs and azithromycin and cardiac arrhythmias: implications for the treatment of COVID-19.

Background: Hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug, combined with azithromycin has been considered a potential treatment for COVID-19. However, these drugs may cause electrocardiogram QT prolongation (QTp) and torsade de Pointes (TdP). We examined potential safety signals for these cardiac arrhythmias. Methods: Using the OpenVigil 2.1 MedDRA platform, we mined data from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) from December 2019 to June 2020. We extracted individual case safety reports based on exposures of seven antimalarial drugs, azithromycin, and combinations. All other drugs in FAERS served as controls. Events of interest included QTp and TdP, with associations between drug exposures and events expressed as adjusted Reporting-Odds-Ratios (aRORs) and confidence intervals. The lower end of aROR 95% confidence interval >1 was used as the statistically significant signal detection threshold. Results: QTp safety signals were found for hydroxychloroquine[aROR:11.70 (10.40-13.16)], chloroquine[aROR:18.97 (11.30-31.87)], quinine[aROR:16.66 (10.18-27.25)], atovaquone[aROR:6.91 (4.14-11.56)], azithromycin alone [aROR:28.02 (22.87-34.32)] and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin [aROR:75.23 (51.15-110.66)]. TdP safety signals were found for hydroxychloroquine [aROR: 5.62 (4.94-6.38)], chloroquine[aROR:49.37 (30.63-79.58)], and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin[aROR:33.09 (21.22-51.61)]. Conclusion: Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine and/or azithromycin was associated with QTp/TdP safety signals and their use should be monitored carefully.

Using time series analysis to forecast the health-related quality of life of post-menopausal women with non-metastatic ER+ breast cancer: A tutorial and case study.

BACKGROUND: Time series models are widely used forecasting techniques in health care for long time series and are typically built in commercial statistical packages. However, for short time series data, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL), guidance on how to select and use appropriate time series models is lacking. This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide adopting a time series analysis framework for HRQoL forecasting. OBJECTIVE: We walk through a case study examining the forecasting of the effects of adjuvant endocrine therapy on the HRQoL of post-menopausal women with non-metastatic ER + breast cancer using data from the HRQoL sub-protocol of the Tamoxifen arm of the Arimidex, tamoxifen, alone or in combination (ATAC) trial. METHODS: The forecasting of HRQoL consists of four steps: 1) data extraction and accuracy check, 2) forecasting horizon definition and identification of data pattern, 3) forecasting model identification and fitting using five forecasting approaches appropriate for short time series ((i) double exponential smoothing, (ii) double moving average, (iii) fuzzy forecasting, (iv) grey forecasting, and (v) Volterra series), 4) forecasting model selection. A user-friendly visual basic for applications (VBA) Excel add-in is made available to interested users to facilitate the application of the tutorial. RESULTS: The Grey method and Volterra series appeared to be good candidates to forecast the effects of adjuvant endocrine therapy on the HRQoL of post-menopausal women with non-metastatic ER + breast cancer enrolled in the ATAC trial. CONCLUSION: It is feasible to forecast the effects of treatments on HRQOL even when the time series is short.

Health condition and job status interactions: econometric evidence of causality from a French longitudinal survey.

This article investigates the causal links between health and employment status. To disentangle correlation from causality effects, the authors leverage a French panel survey to estimate a bivariate dynamic probit model that can account for the persistence effect, initial conditions, and unobserved heterogeneity. The results highlight the crucial role of all three components and reveal strong dual causality between health and employment status. The findings clearly support demands for better coordination between employment and health public policies.