Systematic Assessment of MODTRAN Emulators for Atmospheric Correction.

Atmospheric radiative transfer models (RTMs) simulate the light propagation in the Earth's atmosphere. With the evolution of RTMs, their increase in complexity makes them impractical in routine processing such as atmospheric correction. To overcome their computational burden, standard practice is to interpolate a multidimensional lookup table (LUT) of prestored simulations. However, accurate interpolation relies on large LUTs, which still implies large computation times for their generation and interpolation. In recent years, emulation has been proposed as an alternative to LUT interpolation. Emulation approximates the RTM outputs by a statistical regression model trained with a low number of RTM runs. However, a concern is whether the emulator reaches sufficient accuracy for atmospheric correction. Therefore, we have performed a systematic assessment of key aspects that impact the precision of emulating MODTRAN: 1) regression algorithm; 2) training database size; 3) dimensionality reduction (DR) method and a number of components; and 4) spectral resolution. The Gaussian processes regression (GPR) was found the most accurate emulator. The principal component analysis remains a robust DR method and nearly 20 components reach sufficient precision. Based on a database of 1000 samples covering a broad range of atmospheric conditions, GPR emulators can reconstruct the simulated spectral data with relative errors below 1% for the 95th percentile. These emulators reduce the processing time from days to minutes, preserving sufficient accuracy for atmospheric correction and providing model uncertainties and derivatives. We provide a set of guidelines and tools to design and generate accurate emulators for satellite data processing applications.

Multispectral high resolution sensor fusion for smoothing and gap-filling in the cloud.

Remote sensing optical sensors onboard operational satellites cannot have high spectral, spatial and temporal resolutions simultaneously. In addition, clouds and aerosols can adversely affect the signal contaminating the land surface observations. We present a HIghly Scalable Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (HISTARFM) algorithm to combine multispectral images of different sensors to reduce noise and produce monthly gap free high resolution (30 m) observations over land. Our approach uses images from the Landsat (30 m spatial resolution and 16 day revisit cycle) and the MODIS missions, both from Terra and Aqua platforms (500 m spatial resolution and daily revisit cycle). We implement a bias-aware Kalman filter method in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to obtain fused images at the Landsat spatial-resolution. The added bias correction in the Kalman filter estimates accounts for the fact that both model and observation errors are temporally auto-correlated and may have a non-zero mean. This approach also enables reliable estimation of the uncertainty associated with the final reflectance estimates, allowing for error propagation analyses in higher level remote sensing products. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the generated products through comparison with other state-of-the-art methods confirm the validity of the approach, and open the door to operational applications at enhanced spatio-temporal resolutions at broad continental scales.

Fusing optical and SAR time series for LAI gap fillingwith multioutput Gaussian processes.

The availability of satellite optical information is often hampered by the natural presence of clouds, which can be problematic for many applications. Persistent clouds over agricultural fields can mask key stages of crop growth, leading to unreliable yield predictions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) provides all-weather imagery which can potentially overcome this limitation, but given its high and distinct sensitivity to different surface properties, the fusion of SAR and optical data still remains an open challenge. In this work, we propose the use of Multi-Output Gaussian Process (MOGP) regression, a machine learning technique that learns automatically the statistical relationships among multisensor time series, to detect vegetated areas over which the synergy between SAR-optical imageries is profitable. For this purpose, we use the Sentinel-1 Radar Vegetation Index (RVI) and Sentinel-2 Leaf Area Index (LAI) time series over a study area in north west of the Iberian peninsula. Through a physical interpretation of MOGP trained models, we show its ability to provide estimations of LAI even over cloudy periods using the information shared with RVI, which guarantees the solution keeps always tied to real measurements. Results demonstrate the advantage of MOGP especially for long data gaps, where optical-based methods notoriously fail. The leave-one-image-out assessment technique applied to the whole vegetation cover shows MOGP predictions improve standard GP estimations over short-time gaps (R2 of 74% vs 68%, RMSE of 0.4 vs 0.44 [m 2 m -2]) and especially over long-time gaps (R2 of 33% vs 12%, RMSE of 0.5 vs 1.09 [m 2 m -2]). A second assessment is focused on crop-specific regions, clustering pixels fulfilling specific model conditions where the synergy is profitable. Results reveal the MOGP performance is crop type and crop stage dependent. For long time gaps, best R2 are obtained over maize, ranging from 0.1 (tillering) to 0.36 (development) up to 0.81 (maturity); for moderate time gap, R2 = 0.93 (maturity) is obtained. Crops such as wheat, oats, rye and barley, can profit from the LAI-RVI synergy, with R2 varying between 0.4 and 0.6. For beet or potatoes, MOGP provides poorer results, but alternative descriptors to RVI should be tested for these specific crops in the future before discarding synergy real benefits. In conclusion, active-passive sensor fusion with MOGP represents a novel and promising approach to cope with crop monitoring over cloud-dominated areas.

Synergistic integration of optical and microwave satellite data for crop yield estimation.

Developing accurate models of crop stress, phenology and productivity is of paramount importance, given the increasing need of food. Earth observation (EO) remote sensing data provides a unique source of information to monitor crops in a temporally resolved and spatially explicit way. In this study, we propose the combination of multisensor (optical and microwave) remote sensing data for crop yield estimation and forecasting using two novel approaches. We first propose the lag between Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from MODIS and Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) derived from SMAP as a new joint metric combining the information from the two satellite sensors in a unique feature or descriptor. Our second approach avoids summarizing statistics and uses machine learning to combine full time series of EVI and VOD. This study considers two statistical methods, a regularized linear regression and its nonlinear extension called kernel ridge regression to directly estimate the county-level surveyed total production, as well as individual yields of the major crops grown in the region: corn, soybean and wheat. The study area includes the US Corn Belt, and we use agricultural survey data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) for year 2015 for quantitative assessment. Results show that (1) the proposed EVI-VOD lag metric correlates well with crop yield and outperforms common single-sensor metrics for crop yield estimation; (2) the statistical (machine learning) models working directly with the time series largely improve results compared to previously reported estimations; (3) the combined exploitation of information from the optical and microwave data leads to improved predictions over the use of single sensor approaches with coefficient of determination R ≥ 2 0.76 ; (4) when models are used for within-season forecasting with limited time information, crop yield prediction is feasible up to four months before harvest (models reach a plateau in accuracy); and (5) the robustness of the approach is confirmed in a multi-year setting, reaching similar performances than when using single-year data. In conclusion, results confirm the value of using both EVI and VOD at the same time, and the advantage of using automatic machine learning models for crop yield/production estimation.

Causal discovery reveals complex patterns of drought-induced displacement.

The increasing frequency and severity of droughts present a significant risk to vulnerable regions of the globe, potentially leading to substantial human displacement in extreme situations. Drought-induced displacement is a complex and multifaceted issue that can perpetuate cycles of poverty, exacerbate food and water scarcity, and reinforce socio-economic inequalities. However, our understanding of human mobility in drought scenarios is currently limited, inhibiting accurate predictions and effective policy responses. Drought-induced displacement is driven by numerous factors and identifying its key drivers, causal-effect lags, and consequential effects is often challenging, typically relying on mechanistic models and qualitative assumptions. This paper presents a novel, data-driven methodology, grounded in causal discovery, to retrieve the drivers of drought-induced displacement within Somalia from 2016 to 2023. Our model exposes the intertwined vulnerabilities and the leading times that connect drought impacts, water and food security systems along with episodes of violent conflict, emphasizing that causal mechanisms change across districts. These findings pave the way for the development of algorithms with the ability to learn from human mobility data, enhancing anticipatory action, policy formulation, and humanitarian aid.

A unified vegetation index for quantifying the terrestrial biosphere.

Empirical vegetation indices derived from spectral reflectance data are widely used in remote sensing of the biosphere, as they represent robust proxies for canopy structure, leaf pigment content, and, subsequently, plant photosynthetic potential. Here, we generalize the broad family of commonly used vegetation indices by exploiting all higher-order relations between the spectral channels involved. This results in a higher sensitivity to vegetation biophysical and physiological parameters. The presented nonlinear generalization of the celebrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) consistently improves accuracy in monitoring key parameters, such as leaf area index, gross primary productivity, and sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence. Results suggest that the statistical approach maximally exploits the spectral information and addresses long-standing problems in satellite Earth Observation of the terrestrial biosphere. The nonlinear NDVI will allow more accurate measures of terrestrial carbon source/sink dynamics and potentials for stabilizing atmospheric CO2 and mitigating global climate change.

Divisive normalization image quality metric revisited.

Structural similarity metrics and information-theory-based metrics have been proposed as completely different alternatives to the traditional metrics based on error visibility and human vision models. Three basic criticisms were raised against the traditional error visibility approach: (1) it is based on near-threshold performance, (2) its geometric meaning may be limited, and (3) stationary pooling strategies may not be statistically justified. These criticisms and the good performance of structural and information-theory-based metrics have popularized the idea of their superiority over the error visibility approach. In this work we experimentally or analytically show that the above criticisms do not apply to error visibility metrics that use a general enough divisive normalization masking model. Therefore, the traditional divisive normalization metric 1 is not intrinsically inferior to the newer approaches. In fact, experiments on a number of databases including a wide range of distortions show that divisive normalization is fairly competitive with the newer approaches, robust, and easy to interpret in linear terms. These results suggest that, despite the criticisms of the traditional error visibility approach, divisive normalization masking models should be considered in the image quality discussion.

Comparative analysis of atmospheric radiative transfer models using the Atmospheric Look-up table Generator (ALG) toolbox (version 2.0).

Atmospheric radiative transfer models (RTMs) are software tools that help researchers in understanding the radiative processes occurring in the Earth's atmosphere. Given their importance in remote sensing applications, the intercomparison of atmospheric RTMs is therefore one of the main tasks used to evaluate model performance and identify the characteristics that differ between models. This can be a tedious tasks that requires good knowledge of the model inputs/outputs and the generation of large databases of consistent simulations. With the evolution of these software tools, their increase in complexity bears implications for their use in practical applications and model intercomparison. Existing RTM-specific graphical user interfaces are not optimized for performing intercomparison studies of a wide variety of atmospheric RTMs. In this paper, we present the Atmospheric Look-up table Generator (ALG) version 2.0, a new software tool that facilitates generating large databases for a variety of atmospheric RTMs. ALG facilitates consistent and intuitive user interaction to enable the running of model executions and storing of RTM data for any spectral configuration in the optical domain. We demonstrate the utility of ALG in performing intercomparison studies of radiance simulations from broadly used atmospheric RTMs (6SV, MODTRAN, and libRadtran) through global sensitivity analysis. We expect that providing ALG to the research community will facilitate the usage of atmospheric RTMs to a wide range of applications in Earth observation.

Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences.

The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers.

Emulation as an Accurate Alternative to Interpolation in Sampling Radiative Transfer Codes.

Computationally expensive radiative transfer models (RTMs) are widely used to realistically reproduce the light interaction with the earth surface and atmosphere. Because these models take long processing time, the common practice is to first generate a sparse look-up table (LUT) and then make use of interpolation methods to sample the multidimensional LUT input variable space. However, the question arise whether common interpolation methodsperform most accurate. As an alternative to interpolation, this paper proposes to use emulation, i.e., approximating the RTM output by means of the statistical learning. Two experiments were conducted to assess the accuracy in delivering spectral outputs using interpolation and emulation: at canopy level, using PROSAIL; and at top-of-atmosphere level, using MODTRAN. Various interpolation (nearest-neighbor, inverse distance weighting, and piece-wice linear) and emulation [Gaussian process regression (GPR), kernel ridge regression, and neural networks] methods were evaluated against a dense reference LUT. In all experiments, the emulation methods clearly produced more accurate output spectra than classical interpolation methods. The GPR emulation performed up to ten times more accurately than the best performing interpolation method, and this with a speed that is competitive with the faster interpolation methods. It is concluded that emulation can function as a fast and more accurate alternative to commonly used interpolation methods for reconstructing RTM spectral data.