Development of a Prediction Model for Surgery or Early Mortality at the Time of Initial Assessment for Necrotizing Enterocolitis.

OBJECTIVE: No available scale, at the time of initial evaluation for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), accurately predicts, that is, with an area under the curve (AUC) ≥0.9, which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week. STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study (n = 261) of preterm infants with <33 weeks' gestation or <1,500 g birth weight with either suspected or with definite NEC born at Parkland Hospital between 2009 and 2021. A prediction model using the new HASOFA score (Hyperglycemia, Hyperkalemia, use of inotropes for Hypotension during the prior week, Acidemia, Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [nSOFA] score) was compared with a similar model using the nSOFA score. RESULTS: Among 261 infants, 112 infants had NEC stage I, 68 with NEC stage II, and 81 with NEC stage III based on modified Bell's classification. The primary outcome, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week, occurred in 81 infants (surgery in 66 infants and death in 38 infants). All infants with pneumoperitoneum or abdominal compartment syndrome either died or had surgery. The HASOFA and the nSOFA scores were evaluated in 254 and 253 infants, respectively, at the time of the initial workup for NEC. Both models were internally validated. The HASOFA model was a better predictor of surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week than the nSOFA model, with greater AUC 0.909 versus 0.825, respectively, p < 0.001. Combining HASOFA at initial assessment with concurrent or later presence of abdominal wall erythema or portal gas improved the prediction surgery for NEC stage III or death with AUC 0.942 or 0.956, respectively. CONCLUSION: Using this new internally validated prediction model, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week can be accurately predicted at the time of initial assessment for NEC. KEY POINTS: · No available scale, at initial evaluation, accurately predicts which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.. · In this retrospective cohort study of 261 preterm infants with either suspected or definite NEC we developed a new prediction model (HASOFA score).. · The HASOFA-model had high discrimination (AUC: 0.909) and excellent calibration and was internally validated..

Impact of Size for Gestational Age on Multivariate Analysis of Factors Associated with Necrotizing Enterocolitis in Preterm Infants: Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) primarily affects preterm, especially small for gestational age (SGA), infants. This study was designed to (1) describe frequency and timing of NEC in SGA versus non-SGA infants and (2) assess whether NEC is independently associated with the severity of intrauterine growth failure. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of infants without severe congenital malformations born <33 weeks' gestational age (GA) carried out from 2009 to 2021. The frequency and time of NEC were compared between SGA and non-SGA infants. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess whether NEC was independently associated with intrauterine growth restriction. Severe growth restriction was defined as birth weight Z-score < -2. RESULTS: Among 2,940 infants, the frequency of NEC was higher in SGA than in non-SGA infants (25/268 [9.3%] vs. 110/2,672 [4.1%], respectively, p < 0.001). NEC developed 2 weeks later in SGA than non-SGA infants. In multivariate analysis, the adjusted odds of NEC increased with extreme prematurity (<28 weeks' GA) and with severe but not moderate growth restriction. The adjusted odds of NEC increased with urinary tract infection or sepsis within a week prior to NEC, were lower in infants fed their mother's own milk until discharge, and did not change over five epochs. NEC was independently associated with antenatal steroid (ANS) exposure in infants with birth weight (BW) Z-score < 0. CONCLUSION: NEC was more frequent in SGA than in non-SGA infants and developed 2 weeks later in SGA infants. NEC was independently associated with severe intrauterine growth failure and with ANS exposure in infants with BW Z-score < 0. KEY POINTS: · We studied 2,940 infants <33 weeks' GA.. · We assessed NEC.. · NEC was more frequent in SGA infants.. · NEC occurred 2 weeks later in SGA infants.. · NEC was associated with severe growth restriction..